8/2 - Reds (Williamson) vs Cubs (Smyly): 7:05pm, Marquee

[Brock Beauchamp]

4.0 GB in division, 3.5 GB in Wild Card!

[We Got The Whole 9]

Since 6/27 Bellinger is hitting 405/436/678 with a 9.8 K rate. 15 XBH:13 Ks.

 

His hard hit rate is still pitiful but his launch angle is a sweet 19.8 and he's murdering everything at the belt.

[Derwood]

8 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Since 6/27 Bellinger is hitting 405/436/678 with a 9.8 K rate. 15 XBH:13 Ks.

 

His hard hit rate is still pitiful but his launch angle is a sweet 19.8 and he's murdering everything at the belt.

I don’t know why you would throw him anything but high fastballs or low and away breaking stuff. He’s just sitting on a lower third slider or curve 

Edited August 2, 2023 by Derwood

[jersey cubs fan]

Who is Guy Smiley opening for?

[squally1313]

This Williamson guy made 8 starts in AAA this year and put up a 6.62 ERA with a 27/20 K/BB ratio and almost 2 home runs per 9. This impressed the Reds organization enough to call him up to Cincinnati and plug him into their rotation, where he has, somehow, put up a 4.48 ERA that is at least half a run better than all the predictive metrics. Don't remember, but seems like he was a pretty highly regarded prospect in the Mariners system before being included in the Winker/Suarez trade, after which he promptly fell apart. Given the current state of the Reds pitching, it's not hard to imagine why. 

Tomorrow's pitcher (Luke Weaver, still, somehow) is even worse (how does 18 starts of a 6.80 ERA sound). These guys suck, go win some games. 

[Rex Buckingham]

Seems like Seiya should be back in the lineup today.  Tauchman sits?  Do we get someone in there for Morel, who has looked so lost against lefties?

[CubinNY]

If Smyly can turn back the clock to April and May for one game, I hope it is tonight. 

[Rcal10]

14 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

Seems like Seiya should be back in the lineup today.  Tauchman sits?  Do we get someone in there for Morel, who has looked so lost against lefties?

If a lefty is going they can go with either Wisdom or Amaya at DH, if they don’t want to go with Morel. 
none are particularly great options against lefties. 

Edited August 2, 2023 by Rcal10

[champaignchris]

1 hour ago, jersey cubs fan said:

Who is Guy Smiley opening for?

With Assad and Wes making multi-inning relief appearances on consecutive nights, it would make sense to send Kay down and bring up a fresh arm. Cuas?

[Tryptamine]

Tauchman on 3.6 per 162 fWAR pace and sporting a 118 wRC+, while posting an .876 OPS from July 1st through August 1st. I can't say I saw that coming. 

[Rcal10]

9 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Tauchman on 3.6 per 162 fWAR pace and sporting a 118 wRC+, while posting an .876 OPS from July 1st through August 1st. I can't say I saw that coming. 

He has been very good. I know a lot of PSD people didn’t like him and will point out that his career numbers will suggest he will crash and burn. He came up often on PSD. But to me, if it ain’t broke don’t fix it. Keep sending him out there. Maybe he is the 2023 version of Rafael Ortega and will have one good year in his career. It does happen and he has been very good. 

[Tryptamine]

13 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

He has been very good. I know a lot of PSD people didn’t like him and will point out that his career numbers will suggest he will crash and burn. He came up often on PSD. But to me, if it ain’t broke don’t fix it. Keep sending him out there. Maybe he is the 2023 version of Rafael Ortega and will have one good year in his career. It does happen and he has been very good. 

The confusing part is that fangraphs has his defense as a negative this year and I know it's the eye test, but it really hasn't felt like that at all. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

12 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

The confusing part is that fangraphs has his defense as a negative this year and I know it's the eye test, but it really hasn't felt like that at all. 

If you're looking at the Def value, that's relative to all positions.  FG has him with a +1 UZR in the OF and +0 by OAA https://www.fangraphs.com/players/mike-tauchman/15274/stats#fielding

[We Got The Whole 9]

Most of PSD just does not believe in the journeyman or several-years-removed-from-positive-value comeback cases and I get it. We are sick of scrap heap scavenging, but if you hit on one of those it's almost like getting a rookie because they will be cheap AF for several seasons. Tauchman is a boon to the roster if he doesn't fall back off a cliff next year. 

[Derwood]

Enjoy him while he lasts, because he could easily turn into David Bote at any time

[Brock Beauchamp]

There are definitely some batted ball concerns with Tauchman, consider me skeptical.

[Eeyore]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

He has been very good. I know a lot of PSD people didn’t like him and will point out that his career numbers will suggest he will crash and burn. He came up often on PSD. But to me, if it ain’t broke don’t fix it. Keep sending him out there. Maybe he is the 2023 version of Rafael Ortega and will have one good year in his career. It does happen and he has been very good. 

I didn't post about him on PSD but I am skeptical. I appreciate what he's doing but I am concerned.

[CubUgly]

4 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

 

 

His hard hit rate is still pitiful but his launch angle is a sweet 19.8 and he's murdering everything at the belt.

I can remember folks pimping hard hit rate for Bote for 2 years - it never turned into equivalent production.  I know Boog is in love with hard hit rate as a tell all metric, but I've seen enough examples to where it just isn't the tell all for me.   Dude is producing and he's hitting the ball over the wall. 

[Tryptamine]

I don't think anyone is advocating signing him long term or anything, but it's a fun ride while it lasts. 

[CubinNY]

5 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I don't think anyone is advocating signing him long term or anything, but it's a fun ride while it lasts. 

Yes, it's about current results, not future performance forecasts. 

Same thing with Bellinger, stay hot. But I want the Cubs to have no part in his next contract. 

[Rex Buckingham]

Tauchman takes good ABs and plays solid defense. Makes a lot of contact and right now it's falling. Ride him while he's hot, but he doesn't need a leash like Mancini had. 

[Jason Ross]

Listen, I know I gave Tauchman a lot of horsefeathers, and you can consider me in the camp of "there's probably no way he's going to keep this up".  Brock posted the batted ball data, so I don't need to rehash that, but those numbers are concerning.  I wouldn't be shocked to see him fall off in 2023, let alone do I have questions about 2024.  I don't think he'll continue on a 3.6 fWAR pace over the course of a 162 game span or anything, for example.  Maybe there's some upside as like a 4th OF'er, but I don't see a starter as we move forward as a player in the future.

 

That said, he's been a fun story!  Being that he grew up a Cubs fan, this is pretty magical for him, I can't imagine.  For his sake, and if the Cubs are going to continue to play him, than the Cubs sake, I'm rooting for him.  I really do want him to do well.  I think there's space where I can root for the guy on a nightly basis, while also accepting that Mike Tauchman will turn back into a pumpkin sometime.  Suzuki's in a bit of a rut (I think there's a mechanical fix with his leg kick that needs some tweaking), so you might as well play Mike Tauchman while Suzuki works off to the side a bit to get back into the right space and Tauchman is doing well.  So I don't want anyone to think I'm trying to be overly negative on him; just trying to be realistic.  

Edited August 2, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Even if Tauchman's peripherals were pristine, he'll be 33 next year and has no past performance to indicate that might be his level.  Enjoy the hot streak and the story but no need to make any plans around it beyond not cutting him.

[David]

2 hours ago, CubinNY said:

Yes, it's about current results, not future performance forecasts. 

Same thing with Bellinger, stay hot. But I want the Cubs to have no part in his next contract. 

Sure seemed like Jed was projecting that Bellinger extension talks were going and going well last night.  Rarely see him talking like that.  And by all accounts I've heard, Bellinger loves it here.

Given what is on this upcoming market sans-Ohtani (who we will sign), I'm good with holding my nose and extending him.  We need him.

[Backtobanks]

5 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Even if Tauchman's peripherals were pristine, he'll be 33 next year and has no past performance to indicate that might be his level.  Enjoy the hot streak and the story but no need to make any plans around it beyond not cutting him.

He has some value as a LH, cheap, 4th OF who can play all three positions.