Chicago Bears Offseason Thread (the tank must payoff)

[Tim]

I admit that I've been a bit obsessed with the PFF draft simulator. Here's my latest.

 

Okay, nine picks at the start of the draft:

12: Witherspoon

13: Van Ness

14: Kancey

17: Addison

20: JSN

22: Kincaid

30: Anton Harrison

33: Will McDonald

37: Daiyan Henley

 

That covers: CB, ED, DI, WR, WR, TE, OT, ED, LB

 

I forced the rumored Houston trade, then traded back with Seattle, Oak, Philly, NE. Then I traded next year's first from Hou (Cle pick) to get #17. Then I traded 46 & 64 to get #22.

 

-- eta

 

also traded 38, 54 & 76 to the Jets for #13

[David]

[UMFan83]

 

did not expect him to answer in such a revelatory way

[jb10194]

As feared, the Commanders have tagged Payne. Not all that surprising, but I know he was a favorite of many mock off-season posts I have seen.

[CubinNY]

At the very least he can discriminate the problem. The hard part is making good decisions about who to acquire.

[gflore34]

As feared, the Commanders have tagged Payne. Not all that surprising, but I know he was a favorite of many mock off-season posts I have seen.

 

Yes, pretty much assumed this was going to happen nevertheless, there's plenty of quality DL FA options.

[David]

[BigbadB]

I'm believing more and more that Barkley will end up on the Bears. I like Montgomery, but money needs to be spent, and the Bears just aren't going to pluck all of the best free agents out there. Barkley is an upgrade at that position and if you were going to spend money keeping Monty, how much more really would it be to just sign Barkley?

[raw]

I'm believing more and more that Barkley will end up on the Bears. I like Montgomery, but money needs to be spent, and the Bears just aren't going to pluck all of the best free agents out there. Barkley is an upgrade at that position and if you were going to spend money keeping Monty, how much more really would it be to just sign Barkley?

 

There are 3 tiers of 2nd contracts for RBs.

 

The elite tier is 15-16M/year = McCaffery, Elliott, Kamara

The 2nd tier is 12-12.6M/year = Aaron Jones, Henry, Mixon, Chubb

Then the 3rd tier is all the way down at 7-8M/year = Conner, Fournette, Ekeler

 

Now there's a guy in each tier that probably shouldn't be their (Elliott down 1, Henry and Ekeler up 1), but I think Montgomery would rightly value himself in that 2nd tier. Maybe he's not on Derrick Henry's level, but he's clearly better than Fournette and James Conner. And Barkley obviously belongs in that elite tier. So, you're talking about 12M for Montgomery vs. 15M for Barkley. Barkley is worth that difference.

 

Now to be fair, Montgomery may not get 12M on the open market as all those guys re-signed to avoid hitting the market, so there may not be an open market to pay a guy that much. But that's besides the point for the Bears who would be paying for him NOT to hit the market. I guess there's a scenario where he hits the market, realizes he's not valued in that 2nd tier and signs back with the Bears for like 7-8M/year, but that's risky for the Bears to let him hit the market. And still, if the Bears miss out on Barkley, they could go much cheaper than 7-8M for a backup RB and give the reins to Herbert.

[minnesotacubsfan]

I'm believing more and more that Barkley will end up on the Bears. I like Montgomery, but money needs to be spent, and the Bears just aren't going to pluck all of the best free agents out there. Barkley is an upgrade at that position and if you were going to spend money keeping Monty, how much more really would it be to just sign Barkley?

 

There are 3 tiers of 2nd contracts for RBs.

 

The elite tier is 15-16M/year = McCaffery, Elliott, Kamara

The 2nd tier is 12-12.6M/year = Aaron Jones, Henry, Mixon, Chubb

Then the 3rd tier is all the way down at 7-8M/year = Conner, Fournette, Ekeler

 

Now there's a guy in each tier that probably shouldn't be their (Elliott down 1, Henry and Ekeler up 1), but I think Montgomery would rightly value himself in that 2nd tier. Maybe he's not on Derrick Henry's level, but he's clearly better than Fournette and James Conner. And Barkley obviously belongs in that elite tier. So, you're talking about 12M for Montgomery vs. 15M for Barkley. Barkley is worth that difference.

 

Now to be fair, Montgomery may not get 12M on the open market as all those guys re-signed to avoid hitting the market, so there may not be an open market to pay a guy that much. But that's besides the point for the Bears who would be paying for him NOT to hit the market. I guess there's a scenario where he hits the market, realizes he's not valued in that 2nd tier and signs back with the Bears for like 7-8M/year, but that's risky for the Bears to let him hit the market. And still, if the Bears miss out on Barkley, they could go much cheaper than 7-8M for a backup RB and give the reins to Herbert.

Sign Barkley

[WrigleyField 22]

Yikes

 

I know theae guys are still basically children and most of us did really stupid things in our late teens / early 20s. This is a bad look for him though. Wonder if it will drop him.

[WrigleyField 22]

And just like that, heres more.

 

 

It's a misdemeanor offense.

[minnesotacubsfan]

Wow, what a nightmare

[WrigleyField 22]

Wow, what a nightmare

For the two dead kids and their families, definitely.

[Outshined_One]

Welp.

[Derwood]

The Raiders will still take him

[bukie]

Keep trading down, amass all the picks.

[jersey cubs fan]

Eberflus did say he wanted the engine that makes everything go

[WrigleyField 22]

Pretty interesting. May dig in more later.

 

Bears aren't awful, but could be better. Poor food grade. We better be giving Fields the best Vegan meal options possible!

 

https://nflpa.com/chicago-bears-report-card

Overview

The Chicago Bears were ranked 13th overall in the team surveys. The Club completed a major renovation to their practice facilities less than 5 years ago, and the players seem happy with the facility.

 

The complaints expressed by player respondents focused more on the treatment of the players and their families. Also, both the quality of the food and the timing of the meals were flagged as issues. While players’ opinions of the coaching staff in Chicago are generally positive, one major problem identified was the overall tempo and intensity of offseason workouts, which was reflected in an actual violation and punishment last offseason.

 

Bears ownership ranks 25th when respondents were asked if they believe ownership is willing to spend money to upgrade their facilities (76%), despite being in a relatively new facility.

 

On individual grades you can see how much players love Halas Hall renos: top 5 for weight room, training room, and locker room.

 

All teams grades

https://nflpa.com/nfl-player-team-report-cards

[Outshined_One]

I admittedly haven't paid much attention to the DL guys behind Carter and Anderson, but, given today's news about Carter, how does everyone feel about someone like Tyree Wilson or Myles Murphy at 4 (assuming a trade down and Anderson off the board)? Any other names worth knowing about who could find their way into the Top 5?

[minnesotacubsfan]

I admittedly haven't paid much attention to the DL guys behind Carter and Anderson, but, given today's news about Carter, how does everyone feel about someone like Tyree Wilson or Myles Murphy at 4 (assuming a trade down and Anderson off the board)? Any other names worth knowing about who could find their way into the Top 5?

I'd say they are reaches at #4. I'd hope to heaven Anderson was still there, there aren't any others that excite me at #4.

 

Better to go down further and get more picks

[JeffH]

I admittedly haven't paid much attention to the DL guys behind Carter and Anderson, but, given today's news about Carter, how does everyone feel about someone like Tyree Wilson or Myles Murphy at 4 (assuming a trade down and Anderson off the board)? Any other names worth knowing about who could find their way into the Top 5?

 

IF Wilson's medicals are clean (slightly worried about the foot), he's good at #4. Murphy no - much lower.

 

Wilson is a better scheme fit than Anderson. Just trade down three times (Texans, Colts, and Panthers) and take Van Ness at #9.

[raw]

If anyone cares, I'm going to list players at the combine each day that I will be watching, and what I'm actually looking for.

 

LB-

Jack Campbell- how fast is he? how well does he move laterally?

Daiyan Henley- one of my favorite players, I know he's fast and long and can move. Does the former WR make a run for off ball LB1?

Cam Jones- my IU brethren, how fast/explosive is he? Has shown 0 coverage ability, but is there something there?

Anfernee Orji- Vandy LB, haven't really watched him, but heard some good things earlier in the season. Seems like a late pick, but if he shows up athletically, could move up to earlier Day 3.

Ivan Pace Jr- Flies all over the field and showed also at Senior Bowl, can he hit sub 4.5? Similar to Jones, can he show any coverage potential?

Trenton Simpson- my current LB1, can he solidify it? If you squint, he may have some pass rush potential ala Micah Parsons, can he show any of it?

Dorian Williams- Tulane LB, can really run. Strength will be key. Explosion numbers will also be important.

Owen Pappoe- he will probably run fastest 40 of the day, he's undersized, but length measurements will be interesting

 

DL-

Adetomiwa Adebawore- short, but extremely long arms, looks like a 3T, but is he explosive enough to play edge as well?

Felix Anudike-Uzomah- raw, but looks very athletic. Measurements, strength, speed, bend are all worth watching here

Bryan Bresee- supposedly really athletic, interested to see just how much because I'm not a big fan. Also arm length will be key

Isaiah Foskey- how athletic is he? Explosion numbers? Pretty raw pass rusher

Zach Harrison- supposedly a freak athlete similar to last year's #1 pick, 6'6, 275 never put up big numbers at Ohio St

Calijah Kancey- extremely quick, but severely undersized, does he have the length to make up for lack of height? Is he truly only 6'?

Will McDonald- looks like a great athlete, can he back it up? played out of position at Iowa St, can he bend the edge consistently?

Mike Morris- bit of a tweener, but strong holding the edge. Is he athletic enough to stay on edge or is he a 3-4 DE?

Myles Murphy- if Harrison isn't Travon Walker athletic, Murphy may be. Another who's numbers don't match athleticism.

Moro Ojomo- played HS ball with my nephew in Katy, TX. played DE, but more likely a 3-tech in NFL. Has length, how's atheticism?

Lukas Van Ness- power rusher off the edge, but how athletic is he? How much length? Dating Cole Kmet's sister, so could be a fun pick

Tuli Tuipulotu- another guy that played edge in college, but likely moves inside in NFL. Quickness and length are to watch

Nolan Smith/Tyree Wilson- are they healthy enough to work out?

[CubColtPacer]

I'm believing more and more that Barkley will end up on the Bears. I like Montgomery, but money needs to be spent, and the Bears just aren't going to pluck all of the best free agents out there. Barkley is an upgrade at that position and if you were going to spend money keeping Monty, how much more really would it be to just sign Barkley?

 

There are 3 tiers of 2nd contracts for RBs.

 

The elite tier is 15-16M/year = McCaffery, Elliott, Kamara

The 2nd tier is 12-12.6M/year = Aaron Jones, Henry, Mixon, Chubb

Then the 3rd tier is all the way down at 7-8M/year = Conner, Fournette, Ekeler

 

Now there's a guy in each tier that probably shouldn't be their (Elliott down 1, Henry and Ekeler up 1), but I think Montgomery would rightly value himself in that 2nd tier. Maybe he's not on Derrick Henry's level, but he's clearly better than Fournette and James Conner. And Barkley obviously belongs in that elite tier. So, you're talking about 12M for Montgomery vs. 15M for Barkley. Barkley is worth that difference.

 

Now to be fair, Montgomery may not get 12M on the open market as all those guys re-signed to avoid hitting the market, so there may not be an open market to pay a guy that much. But that's besides the point for the Bears who would be paying for him NOT to hit the market. I guess there's a scenario where he hits the market, realizes he's not valued in that 2nd tier and signs back with the Bears for like 7-8M/year, but that's risky for the Bears to let him hit the market. And still, if the Bears miss out on Barkley, they could go much cheaper than 7-8M for a backup RB and give the reins to Herbert.

 

I was surprised when you got to the part of Montgomery being in the second tier. I do not think the broader public views it that way. I just looked at a few different lists for the top FA RB's for example, and Montgomery is usually 5th on those lists. That would be a stunning contract for me if he got 12 million a year.

[WrigleyField 22]

I'm believing more and more that Barkley will end up on the Bears. I like Montgomery, but money needs to be spent, and the Bears just aren't going to pluck all of the best free agents out there. Barkley is an upgrade at that position and if you were going to spend money keeping Monty, how much more really would it be to just sign Barkley?

 

There are 3 tiers of 2nd contracts for RBs.

 

The elite tier is 15-16M/year = McCaffery, Elliott, Kamara

The 2nd tier is 12-12.6M/year = Aaron Jones, Henry, Mixon, Chubb

Then the 3rd tier is all the way down at 7-8M/year = Conner, Fournette, Ekeler

 

Now there's a guy in each tier that probably shouldn't be their (Elliott down 1, Henry and Ekeler up 1), but I think Montgomery would rightly value himself in that 2nd tier. Maybe he's not on Derrick Henry's level, but he's clearly better than Fournette and James Conner. And Barkley obviously belongs in that elite tier. So, you're talking about 12M for Montgomery vs. 15M for Barkley. Barkley is worth that difference.

 

Now to be fair, Montgomery may not get 12M on the open market as all those guys re-signed to avoid hitting the market, so there may not be an open market to pay a guy that much. But that's besides the point for the Bears who would be paying for him NOT to hit the market. I guess there's a scenario where he hits the market, realizes he's not valued in that 2nd tier and signs back with the Bears for like 7-8M/year, but that's risky for the Bears to let him hit the market. And still, if the Bears miss out on Barkley, they could go much cheaper than 7-8M for a backup RB and give the reins to Herbert.

 

I was surprised when you got to the part of Montgomery being in the second tier. I do not think the broader public views it that way. I just looked at a few different lists for the top FA RB's for example, and Montgomery is usually 5th on those lists. That would be a stunning contract for me if he got 12 million a year.

A year ago I would have said DM had a chance to hit 12 to match Mixon (which isn't even the same as cap% adjusted that would still be a smaller deal). But I definitely got less bullish on that just on how the market has shaped up, and partially just on DMs play. He didn't really change, but I think seeing Herbert's explosiveness in the same scheme really confirmed some of DMs weaknesses. Plus I really think Mixon proved he isn't worth that deal and Aaron Jones had a similar deal he just agreed to negotiate down. So I think the RB market still hasn't fully had its corrective adjustments in the market.

 

Still has some good things going for him, but he's really a short yardage and 3rd down back, who's ideally paired in a timeshare. PFF has him at 3/19.5 I had put it at 3/25 before they did that estimate. That seems like a likely range though, unless he gets stuck holding out and missing the market and has to go with more of a prove-it deal.