2022-23 Offseason Thread (Cubs)

[sneakypower]

it's funny that we did that huge sell off and our farm system is still average

 

The farm system is most definitely better than average, whatever average even is. I’m the low guy on the mainstream coverage too, but it’s as deep and talented as anyone’s

 

To use Fangraphs' rankings for ease of use, the Cubs are 5th in overall value, 5th in number of 50 FV or greater prospects, and 9th in average value of ranked prospects.

they're probably absurdly high on most of our farm, most notably they rate Cristian Hernandez/James Triantos/Owen Caissie top 100 prospects despite there being little to justify it

 

i'd sincerely bet other respected evals that start to trickle in have us way more in the #12-18 range

[Cubswin11]

But he needs to BABIP like crazy to be a star type player and not some ordinary 2-3 win dude. He doesn’t walk and Ks at a pretty high clip.

 

- Swanson’s career BB% is league average or better

- K rate a little abv league (career, 24% v lg 23%)

- Others are covering the BABIP issue

 

Descriptors like ordinary and special are boring and empty noise! The Cubs aren’t even good and we out here talkin’ about being special?! Get good and all that extra stuff opens up (unless/until we run out another coredation for aging and wanting some more money)

He was almost 1.5% below league average in BB% this past year and around league average most of his career. His Ks are above and likely continue to trend up with age. He is the definition of boring and not special and not a guy I’d tie up 10-15% of my yearly payroll in because he moves no needles in the position we’re in and when we are good again he’s a sunk cost/liability/declining asset at that point.

[17 Seconds]

But he needs to BABIP like crazy to be a star type player and not some ordinary 2-3 win dude. He doesn’t walk and Ks at a pretty high clip.

 

- Swanson’s career BB% is league average or better

- K rate a little abv league (career, 24% v lg 23%)

- Others are covering the BABIP issue

 

Descriptors like ordinary and special are boring and empty noise! The Cubs aren’t even good and we out here talkin’ about being special?! Get good and all that extra stuff opens up (unless/until we run out another coredation for aging and wanting some more money)

He was almost 1.5% below league average in BB% this past year and around league average most of his career. His Ks are above and likely continue to trend up with age. He is the definition of boring and not special and not a guy I’d tie up 10-15% of my yearly payroll in because he moves no needles in the position we’re in and when we are good again he’s a sunk cost/liability/declining asset at that point.

 

might as well not even try right

 

i obviously get the pessimism, but if we are even going to pretend to go after guys like ohtani and devers, we need to be improving the team right now

[Cubswin11]

 

- Swanson’s career BB% is league average or better

- K rate a little abv league (career, 24% v lg 23%)

- Others are covering the BABIP issue

 

Descriptors like ordinary and special are boring and empty noise! The Cubs aren’t even good and we out here talkin’ about being special?! Get good and all that extra stuff opens up (unless/until we run out another coredation for aging and wanting some more money)

He was almost 1.5% below league average in BB% this past year and around league average most of his career. His Ks are above and likely continue to trend up with age. He is the definition of boring and not special and not a guy I’d tie up 10-15% of my yearly payroll in because he moves no needles in the position we’re in and when we are good again he’s a sunk cost/liability/declining asset at that point.

 

might as well not even try right

 

i obviously get the pessimism, but if we are even going to pretend to go after guys like ohtani and devers, we need to be improving the team right now

It’s not about not trying and just signing Swanson as the big move isn’t really trying either, imo. The time to try/get guys passed us this offseason already I feel. Settling for Swanson is just bad business, imo, it’s not worth tying the money up in him. There’s ways to improve the team without what’s likely a bad contract that could hurt future moves and makes us not all that much better this year.

 

We aren’t getting or missing out on Ohtani or Devers because we do or do not have Dansby horsefeathering Swanson. We’re missing out on them because we tie too much up in Swanson and/or aren’t willing to pay enough to get either of them.

[Tryptamine]

it's funny that we did that huge sell off and our farm system is still average. jed has done nothing for this organization

 

Waiting until the trade deadline before everyone was a FA certainly didn't do anything to help with that. If he makes those moves before the 2021 season we're looking a whole lot better.

By all accounts Jed killed the 2021 deadline. He got PCA, Alcantara, Kilian and Canario. I know we’re all pissed at Jed now but to think he didn’t do a great job in returns in 2021 is insane and the system is also in really good shape and on the rise. It’s far from average.

 

He absolutely did, given the circumstances. I just think it's reasonable to believe a full year would have gotten substantially more.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

The farm system is most definitely better than average, whatever average even is. I’m the low guy on the mainstream coverage too, but it’s as deep and talented as anyone’s

 

To use Fangraphs' rankings for ease of use, the Cubs are 5th in overall value, 5th in number of 50 FV or greater prospects, and 9th in average value of ranked prospects.

they're probably absurdly high on most of our farm, most notably they rate Cristian Hernandez/James Triantos/Owen Caissie top 100 prospects despite there being little to justify it

 

i'd sincerely bet other respected evals that start to trickle in have us way more in the #12-18 range

 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

They're also arguably low on Mervis, Canario, Wicks, and Brown, and if we look at every organization we'll find highly rated prospects deserving of a lot of skepticism(failure is the game after all).

[Tryptamine]

I think somewhere in the 9-12 range is going to be where the farm averages. I remember seeing some as low as 16.

[17 Seconds]

let's just get javy back

[Cubswin11]

I think somewhere in the 9-12 range is going to be where the farm averages. I remember seeing some as low as 16.

And I think that 9-12 range is fair with room to rise more than fall. The Davis and Canario injuries and Amaya to a lesser degree certainly didn’t help. I think there’s an objective case they’re closer to top 3-5 than 8-12 or so by June/July.

[17 Seconds]

We aren’t getting or missing out on Ohtani or Devers because we do or do not have Dansby horsefeathering Swanson.

 

Tbf since you’re into narrative: neither one of these guys, or any good player, is interested in an actively losing org these days. So a non-Swanson Plan better be more than Noah Syndergaard and worse, otherwise yeah totally will keep (at min Ohtani) them out

 

Devers has had seasons of .7, 1, and .7 fWAR and is being painted as some uber mensch in comparison…What be the rules?

 

those were his age 20-21 seasons plus 2020. the last 3 non-pandemic seasons he was at 6.7, 4.2, and 4.9

[Cubswin11]

We aren’t getting or missing out on Ohtani or Devers because we do or do not have Dansby horsefeathering Swanson.

 

Tbf since you’re into narrative: neither one of these guys, or any good player, is interested in an actively losing org these days. So a non-Swanson Plan better be more than Noah Syndergaard and worse, otherwise yeah totally will keep (at min Ohtani) them out

 

Devers has had seasons of .7, 1, and .7 fWAR and is being painted as some uber mensch in comparison…What be the rules?

Devers has 2, 4+ WAR years and a 6+ year, Covid year was on pace for 2+, he’s only 26, doesn’t strike out much, healthy wRC+’s, walks averageish but up last two years, crushes RHP, .900+ ops, 130+ wRC+.

 

And again Swanson isn’t a factor in getting him or Ohtani. The Rangers, who finished worse than us this year and 2 years ago got Seager and Semien and deGrom, the Tigers also worse than us got Javy. The Phillies got Harper off a mediocre, no playoff, year, the Padres got your man Machado off a 66 win season. It’s all about money at the end of the day.

[Cubswin11]

Devers has 2, 4+ WAR years and a 6+ year, Covid year was on pace for 2+, he’s only 26, doesn’t strike out much, healthy wRC+’s, walks averageish but up last two years, crushes RHP, .900+ ops, 130+ wRC+.

 

Using the Swanson rules can’t I downplay the 6 WAR (carried by Devers’ only positive D season) and claim BABIP luck (moreso than Swanson as Devers hits more GBs) during these years?

It’s only a BABIP in the .330s his 6 win year. .307 and .329 in his 4 win years. Not some nearly .350 Swanson needs to get to those WAR levels along with insane/outlier defensive ratings.

[soccer10k]

Devers put up 14 WAR and an .884 OPS for his age 22 to 25 seasons.

 

Swanson put up 4.1 WAR and a .703 OPS for his age 22 to 25 seasons.

 

You keep bringing up how Swanson has improved the last couple years. Devers hasn’t even had his age 26-28 seasons yet. You’re acting as if Devers is done improving.

 

I don’t hate a potential Swanson signing no matter what. I hate a potential Swanson signing based on the contract he’s likely to get.

[UMFan83]

Jesse Rogers talking about Swanson/Cubs from Bleacher Nation:

 

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2022/12/14/report-dansby-swanson-has-offers-in-hand-and-the-cubs-do-kinda-sound-like-the-favorites/

 

-At the start of the offseason, the Cubs probably would have ranked the shortstops as follows: Trea Turner *gap* Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts *gap* and then Dansby Swanson. So even internally, the Cubs ranked Swanson fourth of four shortstops. That’s not really a surprise, but it feels worth repeating. And it also is interesting to learn that they may have been down a bit on Correa, relative to our expectations (and what seems to be general market consensus).

 

-The chances of Dansby Swanson leaving Atlanta, at this point, are probably greater than 50/50. Rogers would actually put it at 60/40 he does not return to the Braves. He sees the Cubs as having just about a 50/50 “or a little bit better” shot at landing Swanson, themselves. In fact, Rogers says if you had to pin him down as of right now, he believes Swanson would pick the Chicago Cubs.

 

-To that end, Swanson reportedly already has offers in hand (presumably from the Cubs), and it’s pretty much down to just the part where he decides. It’s possible he gained a little bit more leverage after Correa signed (both because of the price of that deal, but also good old fashioned market scarcity), but that probably won’t change the offers much.

 

-But don’t get too excited, because according to Rogers, the deal for Swanson is “still going to be $200 million or more.” Yeesh. It really seems like the Cubs backed themselves into a corner on this one.

 

-Who’s involved? Rogers didn’t seem to have a great sense other than what has generally been reported, with mentions of the Cardinals (I doubt it), Dodgers (taking a step back now, for Shohei Ohtani next offseason), Twins (Rogers doesn’t think they’ll pivot to Swanson) or Red Sox. In either case, the Cubs are “right near the front of the line,” for Dansby Swanson.

Edited December 14, 2022 by UMFan83

[UMFan83]

Rogers also talking about Vazquez/Cubs:

 

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2022/12/14/cubs-reportedly-offered-christian-vazquez-the-same-deal-as-the-twins-so/

 

The Chicago Cubs offered Christian Vázquez the same deal he ultimately signed with the Minnesota Twins (3 years, $30M), but Vázquez CHOSE the Twins over the Cubs. That stings. Bad.

 

Now, for the sake of clarity, Rogers did say the Cubs were pushing to add a club option onto the end of the deal (i.e. after the third year), which technically tilts the offer in the Twins’ favor a bit. But Rogers was very clear that the option was not the deciding factor here. Vázquez looked at two nearly-identical offers, one from the Cubs and one from the Twins, and actually chose to play in Minnesota.

[17 Seconds]

couldn't offer 3/36, need that money for longoria

[Have a seat, Neifi]

Jesse Rogers said on ESPN1000 that he expects Swanson to end up with “$200 million or more” and that he’d put the Cubs’ chances at 50/50 “or a little bit better.”

 

Edited to add: Ignore me and see the more comprehensive posts above.

[Gilby]

I think the Stroman deal broke Jed. You know he was really feeling himself after that one and now he's chasing that short term deal high

[Cubswin11]

Call me crazy but not getting Vazquez, a 32 year old fringe full time starting catcher, for 3/30 or more is fine by me

[SaorsaDaonnan]

I want Swanson.

 

Actually I built my imaginary offseason around him back in October, in (contextual) preference to the other shortstops out there. Maybe my late 80/early 90s kid origins are showing, but I like a defensive SS, and in my opinion, a great defender up the middle at a youngish-for-FA age and with some level of offensive upside is pretty appealing.

 

Alongside PCA’s rise and a deal with Hoerner that buys out the arb years and gives us another handful beyond, a Swanson signing means strong up-the-middle defense with neutral to plus offense for essentially the rest of the decade. That’s highly appealing to me.

 

The issue, imo, is that Swanson needs to be paired with a meaningful bat like an Abreu or Contreras, or else another impact run preventer like Senga in addition to Taillon...and those guys are largely off the market now.

 

From the point of view of the early offseason, adding a bat like that would have been no problem for a team not being precious about resources, and it all could have been done on the shorter deals the FO wants. You could argue about whether it would be better or worse than just getting a Turner or Correa, but something like a Swanson/Abreu/Senga/Taillon or a Swanson/Contreras version would have fit the bill pretty nicely. In fact, for a team that needed so many positions — 2 SP, a C, some kind of middle infield help, a 1B/DH to join Mervis, several deadline deal-able relievers — Swanson arguably is more practical than the others. Sure, he may be a star rather than a superstar most years, but he’s damned useful.

 

I think the problem people are responding to isn’t so much Swanson as the feeling of several years’ worth of rejection and squandered opportunities. We wasted 2019-21, dumped Schwarber for nothing, Darvish for a very distant future, Contreras for just a QO, turned down Harper, got rejected by Correa twice and Turner and Bogaerts once, while also seeing Abreu and Senga pass us by, and today hearing the same about Vasquez. Alzolay, Marquez, Davis, and Amaya had disappointing years, and I could go on. Suzuki, Stroman, Taillon, and now hopefully Swanson are all nice adds, but none of them add up to the feeling that we have turned the corner now and the ugly transition is finally over, and we're a credible big market team again.

 

Of course, a winning season with good news from a few corners could still change that narrative soon. But right now, it’s looking like the likely case is something like Swanson, Taillon, Bellinger, Narvaez, Mancini, and Smyly/Kluber/Thor/Eovaldi, plus some RP…..or, it’s something like that, but wsy worse, with just a temp 2B or 2B instead of Swanson.

 

The former is darn useful, but it’s good evolution rather than the revolution we long for, a wild card run or a plan to sneak past the Cards if they stumble, a la the 2018-19 Brewers.

 

Of course, with a nice farm and plenty of future money, the long term outlook isn’t actually that dark. But for now, we’ve really painted ourselves into a corner with Swanson here, where this is a clear failure of an offseason now if we don’t get him…barring a case of Ohtani or Trout falling into our laps. That would be four out of the last five off seasons that we’ve totally horsefeathers the bed, so we now absolutely have to beat out like five teams for the least star-powered star or else face another huge fail.

 

And this was a preventable circumstance. We can blame the FO or ownership for that, but we shouldn’t blame Swanson for it.

Edited December 15, 2022 by SaorsaDaonnan

[Wilson A2000]

[Tryptamine]

 

Market inefficiency?

[Cubswin11]

This guy has hit on stuff in the past and has Vanderbilt ties, iirc.

 

https://twitter.com/abeds15/status/1603185708553732096?s=46&t=SJcbbaRYb_ofs9E0Qkcv2A

[gflore34]

 

If the mutant option means Bellinger will mutate into someone who can hit I like it, guessing Levine meant to write mutual option.

[Tryptamine]

 

If the mutant option means Bellinger will mutate into someone who can hit I like it, guessing Levine meant to write mutual option.

 

Stop taking away what little joy this offseason is bringing me