It turns out the real Yu Darvish was the friends we made in this thread

[Cubswin11]

just sign cobb for 4/60 like we were supposed to 2 months ago

If by 4/60 you mean 2/30 or 3/40, sure. But just get Yu

 

my heart wants yu, but it kind of feels like it's back to 6/150 for him, and his recent injury history makes that pretty scary to me. i'll still be excited if they end up paying that much to get him, but i don't know if it's a smart decision.

Highly doubt that and if it is go to 8/160 to lessen the LT hit and front load it. Who cares if we’re paying him $10 mil a year 5+ years from now

[David]

If by 4/60 you mean 2/30 or 3/40, sure. But just get Yu

 

my heart wants yu, but it kind of feels like it's back to 6/150 for him, and his recent injury history makes that pretty scary to me. i'll still be excited if they end up paying that much to get him, but i don't know if it's a smart decision.

Highly doubt that and if it is go to 8/160 to lessen the LT hit and front load it. Who cares if we’re paying him $10 mil a year 5+ years from now

 

unless there's some mlb rule/tax implication i'm overlooking (which i don't think bc it's all based on AAV anyway), there's no good reason to frontload when you can backload. money now >>>>>> money later

[WrigleyField 22]

 

my heart wants yu, but it kind of feels like it's back to 6/150 for him, and his recent injury history makes that pretty scary to me. i'll still be excited if they end up paying that much to get him, but i don't know if it's a smart decision.

Highly doubt that and if it is go to 8/160 to lessen the LT hit and front load it. Who cares if we’re paying him $10 mil a year 5+ years from now

 

unless there's some mlb rule/tax implication i'm overlooking (which i don't think bc it's all based on AAV anyway), there's no good reason to frontload when you can backload. money now >>>>>> money later

Hmmm... if I can get a player to agree to a lower AAV contract that's frontloaded because he understands time value of money, isn't that potentially a very big deal in determining the tax base?

Edited January 30, 2018 by WrigleyField 22

[Lowblow]

Unless, you foresee a future three to five years from now when you will have to pay Bryant, Rizzo, Russell, Baez, Schwarber, Quintana, et al a lot more money than you will be paying them in the nearer term.

[David]

i was overlooking the possibility that he suggested to frontload as a feature for darvish

[jersey cubs fan]

 

my heart wants yu, but it kind of feels like it's back to 6/150 for him, and his recent injury history makes that pretty scary to me. i'll still be excited if they end up paying that much to get him, but i don't know if it's a smart decision.

Highly doubt that and if it is go to 8/160 to lessen the LT hit and front load it. Who cares if we’re paying him $10 mil a year 5+ years from now

 

unless there's some mlb rule/tax implication i'm overlooking (which i don't think bc it's all based on AAV anyway), there's no good reason to frontload when you can backload. money now >>>>>> money later

you would front load as an incentive to a player to take a lower over AAV to protect you from the tax hit. He gets more money sooner, which has more value, while you avoid tax hit.

[David]

Unless, you foresee a future three to five years from now when you will have to pay Bryant, Rizzo, Russell, Baez, Schwarber, Quintana, et al a lot more money than you will be paying them in the nearer term.

 

you backload them too. if you can backload, all else equal, you should.

[David]

Highly doubt that and if it is go to 8/160 to lessen the LT hit and front load it. Who cares if we’re paying him $10 mil a year 5+ years from now

 

unless there's some mlb rule/tax implication i'm overlooking (which i don't think bc it's all based on AAV anyway), there's no good reason to frontload when you can backload. money now >>>>>> money later

you would front load as an incentive to a player to take a lower over AAV to protect you from the tax hit. He gets more money sooner, which has more value, while you avoid tax hit.

 

yeah i got what he was saying about 10 seconds after i made that post

[Cubswin11]

Highly doubt that and if it is go to 8/160 to lessen the LT hit and front load it. Who cares if we’re paying him $10 mil a year 5+ years from now

 

unless there's some mlb rule/tax implication i'm overlooking (which i don't think bc it's all based on AAV anyway), there's no good reason to frontload when you can backload. money now >>>>>> money later

you would front load as an incentive to a player to take a lower over AAV to protect you from the tax hit. He gets more money sooner, which has more value, while you avoid tax hit.

Yeah, that’s what I was getting at. If they are fine going to 6/150+ outside of the LT ramifications just go to 8/160. He gets his 25-30 a year for the first few years, but for that we get to tack 1-3 years on to lower the AAV for LT purposes. Hell, even give him an opt out after 3-4 years. Also paying more now in real cash helps a bit in future cash outlays with arbitration raises/Bryce (though obviously I get the time value aspect of that by paying more now than later but it’s a trade off).

Edited January 30, 2018 by Cubswin11

[WrigleyField 22]

Unless, you foresee a future three to five years from now when you will have to pay Bryant, Rizzo, Russell, Baez, Schwarber, Quintana, et al a lot more money than you will be paying them in the nearer term.

 

you backload them too. if you can backload, all else equal, you should.

All else equal is kind of the big deal. If you could actually get players to adjust their total contract by frontloading, why would you ever backload? Even if you are using somewhat conservative time value returns, a bunch of half million, million AAV increments could end up adding up when it comes to trying to time your tax overages/under.

 

Eta, actually there could be a lot of reasons to backload still, but not from a lux tax calc perspective.

Edited January 30, 2018 by WrigleyField 22

[David]

someone smarter than me figure out if charles is at least right about this

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

[Cubswin11]

someone smarter than me figure out if charles is at least right about this

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

I’m guessing it’s this....

 

s

$24m / 8 Years (2016 - 2023)

signed by Los Angeles Dodgers on 1/7/2016 (Free Agent)

2016: $3M, 2017: $3M, 2018: $3M, 2019: $3M, 2020: $3M, 2021: $3M, 2022: $3M, 2023: $3M

Incentives: $250,000 for every 10 IP after (and including) 90 IP up to 200 IP; $1,000,000 for his 15th, 20th, 25th, 30th and 32nd starts

 

He made 25 starts and pitched 134 innings last year. I'm only getting to $4.25 in incentives hit from last year and $7.25 in 2016. So overall those equal about $12 million but it should only be a ~$4 million cap hit from 2017 going in to the year + his base salary.

[WrigleyField 22]

 

unless there's some mlb rule/tax implication i'm overlooking (which i don't think bc it's all based on AAV anyway), there's no good reason to frontload when you can backload. money now >>>>>> money later

you would front load as an incentive to a player to take a lower over AAV to protect you from the tax hit. He gets more money sooner, which has more value, while you avoid tax hit.

Yeah, that’s what I was getting at. If they are fine going to 6/150+ outside of the LT ramifications just go to 8/160. He gets his 25-30 a year for the first few years, but for that we get to tack 1-3 years on to lower the AAV for LT purposes. Hell, even give him an opt out after 3-4 years. Also paying more now in real cash helps a bit in future cash outlays with arbitration raises/Bryce (though obviously I get the time value aspect of that by paying more now than later but it’s a trade off).

That seems like a structure bound to test the limits of MLB and the lux tax rules.

[Cubswin11]

you would front load as an incentive to a player to take a lower over AAV to protect you from the tax hit. He gets more money sooner, which has more value, while you avoid tax hit.

Yeah, that’s what I was getting at. If they are fine going to 6/150+ outside of the LT ramifications just go to 8/160. He gets his 25-30 a year for the first few years, but for that we get to tack 1-3 years on to lower the AAV for LT purposes. Hell, even give him an opt out after 3-4 years. Also paying more now in real cash helps a bit in future cash outlays with arbitration raises/Bryce (though obviously I get the time value aspect of that by paying more now than later but it’s a trade off).

That seems like a structure bound to test the limits of MLB and the lux tax rules.

Probably but good, be the first to do it and likely get away with it before changes like the Dodgers and the 10-day DL

[Bull]

At this point, I'm going to need some evidence that Yu Darvish is actually a person. Sounds made up to me. and if he were a real person who actually played baseball, wouldn't he have signed by now? Checkmate fake baseball news.

[davell]

someone smarter than me figure out if charles is at least right about this

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

I've got them around 180ish after everything, not including Maeda's incentives, or in season moves. I guess its possible they can be paying Kemp MORE than just the 20 AAV his contract calls for though, since they're paying the Braves and Padres 8 mill combined for him too. No idea if that counts on top of his AAV hit or not.

 

They'll pay Maeda some incentives, assuming he stays healthy, but he needs to start 32 games and pitch 200 innings, to make 10 mill in incentives.

 

If he starts 25 games and pitches 160 innings, his incentives are just 5.50 mill. And if I chose 24 starts, it'd drop to 4 mill.

 

At any rate, they need to realistically move Grandal and Ryu for minimum salary guys, to give themselves 20 mill to throw at Yu and have anything left to spend at mid season.

 

Their other option is to package prospects with Kemp, to get someone to take his contract. To me, that sounds more realistic for them.

[We Got The Whole 9]

I just don't feel like Yu wants to be a Cub

 

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N900A using Tapatalk

[minnesotacubsfan]

Yu mama dont wanna be a Cub

[Bobson Dugnutt]

it's been almost a week since that brewer guy said darvish is signing with the cubs.

[minnesotacubsfan]

Theres a lesson here: never trust anyone from Wisconsin

[David]

it's been almost a week since that brewer guy said darvish is signing with the cubs.

 

my guess is the brewers got the impression that that's what's going to happen

 

whatever info that guy is getting is coming from the brewers

[Bobson Dugnutt]

it's been almost a week since that brewer guy said darvish is signing with the cubs.

 

my guess is the brewers got the impression that that's what's going to happen

 

whatever info that guy is getting is coming from the brewers

 

yeah, I’m not doubting that guy as a source by any means because it seems he’s called enough things that he deserves the benefit of the doubt. but i don’t think it was quite as much of a done deal as his sources believed.

[CubinNY]

I just don't feel like Yu wants to be a Cub

 

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I don’t get the feeling he wants to be a pitcher for any team for what they are offering.

[Agony and Ivy]

I just don't feel like Yu wants to be a Cub

 

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N900A using Tapatalk

 

I think the speculating on things like this is funny. One thing I've noticed is he's stopped messing with reports on twitter which I enjoyed thoroughly

[Butterscup]

he'll be a cub very soon