Cubs Offseason Top Prospects Lists (BA, BP, Sickels, etc)

[CubsWin]

... Ive noticed with several Cubs pitchers, particularly with Paul Blackburn and Dylan Cease while with the NWL affiliate, that some were suddenly far more dominant/effective at the end of the season/playoffs then the middle part of the season. It could be they were working on certain pitches more heavily during the year and then towards the end their coaches say go out there with your best stuff and get them out OR simply that the time developing those pitches paid off and they're just better by the end of the season.

 

What got me wondering was in some cases the improvement was stark and out of nowhere. Though that is how it can happen. Something just clicks. It would make sense in the lower levels to start the season with the pitcher just doing his best to get hitters out. Then identifying what isn't working or what would enhance what the pitcher is already doing and working on that for much of the rest of the season. Then at the end, especially if the team is in the playoff hunt or has made them, take the reigns off and just have him go get guys out without any pitch quotas.

 

Interesting thoughts,Win. Two thoughts:

1. My guess is that they begin each season with a "plan" for each guy, at least anybody they've have for even a fairly small while. My guess is that they do a bunch of review and analysis after the season, develop a plan, present that or discuss that with the pitcher, and begin the season with that plan. How often they revise it during the season, I don't know.

 

2. When Derek Johnson came over, he believed that throwing too fast was bad for command, for delivery consistency, and for health. He had pitchers throw sets at different velocities, charted the command results, and then assigned them velocity bands within which to throw their fastball. Often less than what their max-velocity could achieve. So, for example, maybe Tseng could throw 91-92-93, but supposedly he might have a velocity-band assigned at 88-90, if that was where he'd charted as being most consistent with best command. I believe some of those constraints were then removed late in the season or entering playoffs. Not sure whether: 1. Johnson kept that up; 2. Whether it only applied to lower-level guys; 3) How often they re-evaluated and revised the band; 4) How it was enforced if a pitcher over-threw his band; or 5) whether Jim Brower does that or anything similar.

Agree, craig. This front office doesn't do anything without a plan. ("The average Rooski doesn't take a dump without plan." Name the movie...)

 

It will be fun to see how they progress. And if Kyle Hendricks as showed us anything, it's that the ability to command a pitch beats higher velocity every time.

[toonsterwu]

I like Cease in MB. He went through the NWL guys mostly easily and it's just those guys again in the MWL. From there MB is pitcher friendly, it's still just an A level, his fastball should play there, and next year is another one post-surgery. I wouldn't expect him to be long for the MWL even if he did start there. My hope is about 15 starts at the A ball levels and 5 in AA for ~100 innings, if he's not traded.

 

Random but how even/uneven is this prospect for prospect swap that would never happen:

 

Indians get: Eloy Jimenez, Mark Zagunis

Cubs get: Triston McKenzie, Adam Plutko

 

?

 

From a rough value perspectve, obviously subjective, I'd say it is relatively even. I might even argue that the Cubs end holds more value (I still think Plutko is one of those "AAA train" guys that will end up going up and down a bit, and may find a good year here or there, whereas I think Zagunis has a better chance to hold a consistent MLB career, and I think Eloy holds a higher ceiling than Triston). As you note, it would probably never happen (I don't see the Cubs dealing Eloy for prospects when the window is here and now - if they make a move with Eloy, I expect it to be a big move to supplement the MLB roster ... but I also don't see the Indians really willing to spin a high ceiling arm like Triston for a high ceiling bat like Eloy when they have positional reinforcements (albeit, not at the same ceiling level) relatively close and may have some rotation needs).

 

It's a fun idea, though.

[UMFan83]

BA is out with their Cubs list:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-chicago-cubs-top-10-prospects/#UPE4fy6XmmOr4CW3.97

 

1. Eloy Jimenez, of

2. Ian Happ, 2b/of

3. Albert Almora, of

4. Dylan Cease, rhp

5. Oscar de la Cruz, rhp

6. Mark Zagunis, of

7. Jeimer Candelario, 3b

8. Trevor Clifton, rhp

9. D.J. Wilson, of

10. Jose Albertos, rhp

 

I thought Almora exhausted prospect status, but I guess not?

 

Eloy blurb...who wants to be the man and post the rest of the top 10??

 

1. Eloy Jimenez, of

Born: Nov. 27, 1996. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-4. Wt.: 205. Signed: Dominican Republic, 2013. Signed by: Jose Serra/Carlos Reyes.

 

SCOUTING GRADES

Batting: 60

Power: 70

Speed: 50

Defense: 50

Arm: 45

Based on 20-80 scouting scale—where 50 represents major league average—and future projection rather than present tools.

 

Background: Jimenez’s father Luis played and coached basketball in the Dominican Republic, so Jimenez grew up around athletes and some degree of fame. He was ready for the spotlight when his baseball career took off as an amateur and he ranked as the top talent in the 2013 international signing class. The Cubs signed both of the top players that year, Jimenez for $2.8 million and Venezuelan shortstop Gleyber Torres for $1.7 million. They have grown into exactly what the Cubs thought they were getting, with Torres the savvier, steadier middle infielder and Jimenez the high-risk, high-upside corner bat. While Torres was traded to the Yankees in the Aroldis Chapman deal in July 2016, Jimenez emerged as the Cubs’ top prospect with a breakout season at low Class A South Bend. He led the Midwest League in doubles (40) and slugging (.532) while ranking third in batting (.329). He also played in the Futures Game, where he homered and made a highlight-reel over-the-fence catch in foul ground down the right-field line.

 

Scouting Report: Jimenez was signed for his bat and his body—one club official admiringly called him “a physical animal”—and has started to deliver. His body evokes comparisons with former Cub Jorge Soler and Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton, but he’s more than a power-first hitter. Some scouts rate Jimenez’s pure hitting ability on par with his power, or put 60 grades on his hitting and 70 on his power (on the 20-80 scouting scale). While his walk rate is modest, Jimenez improved his strike-zone judgment in 2016 by seeing more pitches per at-bat, identifying spin more and applying the Cubs’ selective-aggressive mantra. When he turned it loose, he barreled balls and made plenty of hard contact. He added a knee tuck and a bit of a hand pump to his swing, getting less rotational and on time more often, and it aided his ability to drive the ball to right-center field. Some scouts see long levers and a long swing, which could be exploited more by advanced pitchers. But others believe he has the aptitude to adjust quickly and laud his hitting intelligence. Jimenez’s other tools grade out as average. He’s an average runner but limited to a corner, and he mostly played left field in 2016. His weakest tool is his fringy arm. His throws lack carry, though he has become more accurate. He had only one outfield assist in 2016 and has five in his career. He has a chance for an average arm, though, if he dedicates himself to a throwing program. The Cubs are working to keep him lean and athletic physically so he doesn’t get too big. Some scouts question Jimenez’s ultimate level of athleticism, as he’s not graceful, but the Cubs believe he is still growing into his body and will gain body control with natural physical maturity and added strength.

 

The Future: While the Cubs don’t need Jimenez soon, he may force their hand if his bat continues to progress. He has polish to add against lefthanded pitchers, who handled him with a steady diet of offspeed stuff, and to his defense to be more than just a left fielder. He likely will take one step at a time, reporting to high Class A Myrtle Beach for 2017, with a big league ETA of 2019.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I thought Almora exhausted prospect status, but I guess not?

 

BA doesn't include big league service time as a criteria for determining if someone is still a prospect. It's how Joe Mauer ended up their top prospect in all of baseball back in like 2002 while not being eligible for ROY.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Wilson, Zagunis, Candelario, and Albertos in the Top 10. The system, it is not good right now.

[David]

Wilson, Zagunis, Candelario, and Albertos in the Top 10. The system, it is not good right now.

 

That was my thought exactly as I read it.

 

Obligatory "this is kind of what happens when you graduate like 7 guys who win you a world series within two seasons" qualifier comment.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Wilson, Zagunis, Candelario, and Albertos in the Top 10. The system, it is not good right now.

 

That was my thought exactly as I read it.

 

Obligatory "this is kind of what happens when you graduate like 7 guys who win you a world series within two seasons" qualifier comment.

 

And that's with Almora being given prospect status! Having pretty much no breakouts and a number of disappointments the same year your first pick is #104 is not great timing. Should bounce back though, they have 3 picks this draft before #104, plus with the current state there's way more potential for guys to take off than to disappoint.

 

Also, kudos to BA for resisting the temptation to rank Underwood in the Top 10.

[Hrubes20]

Wilson, Zagunis, Candelario, and Albertos in the Top 10. The system, it is not good right now.

 

Candelario would be a top 10 prospect in the majority of systems in baseball. Probably the 9th or 10th prospect in the better ones, but he's still a legit guy. Zagunis probably makes plenty of top 10 lists as well, just due to his proximity to the majors. Many lists will throw a guy like him in at #10.

 

Wilson and Albertos aren't making many lists though. As others have mentioned, this kind of thing happens when you graduate loads of talent to the big league team the past 2 years, and then deal from the remainder of the farm to bolster those graduates for a WS run.

[Hrubes20]

 

Also, kudos to BA for resisting the temptation to rank Underwood in the Top 10.

 

Agreed wholeheartedly. At this point I would like to stick him in the pen and see how his stuff plays.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Wilson, Zagunis, Candelario, and Albertos in the Top 10. The system, it is not good right now.

 

Candelario would be a top 10 prospect in the majority of systems in baseball. Probably the 9th or 10th prospect in the better ones, but he's still a legit guy. Zagunis probably makes plenty of top 10 lists as well, just due to his proximity to the majors. Many lists will throw a guy like him in at #10.

 

Wilson and Albertos aren't making many lists though. As others have mentioned, this kind of thing happens when you graduate loads of talent to the big league team the past 2 years, and then deal from the remainder of the farm to bolster those graduates for a WS run.

 

Candelario has like a .600 OPS when the temperature is below 80 degrees. He's a perfectly fine prospect and would make more than a few Top 10s, but it's also telling that all the Candelario conversation from Cubs fans(who are going to overrate him the most) is "what can we get for Candelario" and not "how can we fit Candelario in the roster/lineup". But he's easily the best of that list of 4, it's more that he's in the Top 10 and those other guys are too.

 

Zagunis is next-gen Matt Szczur. That's fine and the system needs to provide those guys for injury depth and cost efficient bench/platoon players, but in no good system should he be ranked #6.

[UMFan83]

I also found it funny that their projected 2020 lineup/rotation has 10 of the 14 guys already on the MLB roster (Contreras, Rizzo, Baez, Russell, Bryant, Schwarber, Almora, Lester, Hendricks, Montgomery). I don't think I've ever seen the Cubs list come anywhere close to that.

[Post Count Padder]

Pretty shocked Underwood isn't in there but Manuel just mentioned in the chat that's he isn't high on him.

 

Ryan (Chicago, IL): Is Duane Underwood still considered to be a future SP, or has his outlook changed?

 

John Manuel: Sorry for the double-post everyone. Ryan, Duane Underwood is one of the more divisive prospects in the system. Some of the folks in the organization still really like him, but to be honest, I've never been an Underwood guy. (1) Georgia prep pitcher track record is mixed, and quite poor for Marietta area. Most of those kids are over-worked in HS, they specialize early and pitch too much in travel ball. (2) He's never had a consistent breaking ball. I like my RHPs to spin a breaking ball; his is good in flashes. (3) Injuries. He's rarely stayed healthy. He just doesn't float my boat, and the guys I've talked outside the organization usually agree. He's out of the top 10 after another injury-plagued year where his fastball in the AFL, when he was supposed to be getting healthy, was topping out at 91-92. Big year for him next year to try to regain some momentum. Look for him at Double-A if he can answer the bell. Hope he can.

[UMFan83]

Nice take on Almora

 

JD (Charlotte): 3 seems a little high for a guy who stopped hitting in High-A and hasn't turned it around since. Is the system really that weak right now?

 

John Manuel: You're light on Albert Almora. He doesn't walk; otherwise he's a good offensive player. Hits for average, has average power, elite defensive player in CF. I think he's a really solid player. My comp for him for 3 years has been Aaron Rowand, maybe fewer HRs and better defense, but capable of being a 6-hole hitter on a championship team. I think he wins the Cubs CF job this year over Jon Jay and wings up hitting 7th or even 8th for that team. He's a great baserunner, savvy player who doesn't have to be a star. I think he fits this roster very well. Winning makeup, intangibles, and solid tangible ability. Maybe not what you might expect for a No. 6 overall pick, but he's going to be a solid everyday big leaguer. I think you are wrong in your assessment of Almora.

[Post Count Padder]

Full chat here: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/chicago-cubs-top-10-prospects-chat-2/#s0r2IerIwVMLPoBO.97

 

Some people in the organization think Eloy could be G. Stanton. Manuel also liked Matt Holliday as a comp to him.

[toonsterwu]

Wilson, Zagunis, Candelario, and Albertos in the Top 10. The system, it is not good right now.

 

Manuel suggests the system has moved up a bit from their ranking last year. Of course, rankings don't necessarily reflect likelihood of success as risk is obviously a factor.

 

Still, I stand by what I said a month or so ago - this looks like a borderline top 10, Likely top 15 system. Perhaps that's as much a statement about the minors in general, due to the tendency now for teams to rip apart (and thus load up their systems). Still, there's a solid top group, good depth. You, and even I, can have doubts on Candelario, but the broad profile (age, tools, some improvement, some production) lends to some positivity.

 

To say zagunis is szczur .., I get it, but I think zagunis has a far better shot to be a solid second division regular than szczur. He'll never have hr pop, but zagunis should hit some doubles.

 

Wilson and albertos are upside nods, which happens in all rankings. Wilson, at their very least, did show improvement. I have no problem with those 2 there ... Ejm would've surprised me a bit compared to those 2.

[toonsterwu]

Wonder who the down low eloy comp is (unless I'm misreading it and Giancarlo is the dl comp ... Doesn't seem to read that way, though).

 

My guess due to high hit tool. . Manny.

[Hrubes20]

 

Candelario has like a .600 OPS when the temperature is below 80 degrees. He's a perfectly fine prospect and would make more than a few Top 10s, but it's also telling that all the Candelario conversation from Cubs fans(who are going to overrate him the most) is "what can we get for Candelario" and not "how can we fit Candelario in the roster/lineup". But he's easily the best of that list of 4, it's more that he's in the Top 10 and those other guys are too.

 

Zagunis is next-gen Matt Szczur. That's fine and the system needs to provide those guys for injury depth and cost efficient bench/platoon players, but in no good system should he be ranked #6.

 

The bolded is certainly fair.

[Hrubes20]

Wonder who the down low eloy comp is (unless I'm misreading it and Giancarlo is the dl comp ... Doesn't seem to read that way, though).

 

My guess due to high hit tool. . Manny.

 

I read it that way too. As in, he's heard a comp that is such high praise that he doesn't even want to mention it. Manny would be a solid guess. Miggy had some great bat/power grades coming up as well.

[Tryptamine]

The write ups on the rest of the top 10. Sorry for the incoming huge walls of text.

 

2. Ian Happ, 2b/of

 

Born: Aug. 12, 1994. B-T: B-R. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 205. Drafted: Cincinnati, 2015 (1st round). Signed by: Daniel Carte.

 

Background: Happ prepped at Pittsburgh’s Mt. Lebanon High, which also produced big leaguers Don Kelly and Josh Wilson. His college career at Cincinnati featured a star turn in the Cape Cod League in 2014 and the American Athletic Conference player of the year award in 2015. He signed for $3 million as the ninth overall pick in 2015 and finished his first full season in Double-A. He ended his 2016 with a 4-for-4, two-homer day in the Arizona Fall League championship.

 

Scouting Report: Happ combines power and speed offensively. He’s an above-average runner and solid basestealer who draws walks and could fit at the top of a lineup. He has present strength and plus bat speed with above-average power from both sides of the plate that plays more with line drives to the gaps for now. Happ goes deep in counts, doesn’t shorten up with two strikes and has a track record of striking out a lot. The Cubs gave him plenty of reps at second base, where scouts see stiff actions, rigid hands and below-average overall defense. His solid-average arm plays in all three outfield spots, which he also played in 2016.

 

The Future: Happ hasn’t mastered a position yet, mostly because he’s not truly average at one. He should hit enough to earn an everyday lineup spot eventually.

 

3. Albert Almora, of

 

Born: April 16, 1994. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 190. Drafted: HS—Hialeah Gardens, Fla., 2012 (1st round). Signed by: John Koronka/Laz Llanos.

 

Background: The sixth overall pick in the 2012 draft, Almora has starred for numerous U.S. national teams as an amateur and professional. He had his best pro season in 2016 when he stayed healthy (he played a career-high 127 games) and earned his first big league callup in June. He made the Cubs’ postseason roster, and while he went 0-for-10 at the plate, he scored the go-ahead run in Game Seven of the World Series.

 

Scouting Report: Scouts long have loved Almora’s baseball instincts and his defense. While he’s a below-average runner out of the batter’s box, he’s a smart baserunner and has 70 range in center field on the 20-80 scouting scale thanks to his ability to read hitters’ swings, position himself and get tremendous jumps. He’s a potential Gold Glover in center field with a plus arm that plays in any spot. Almora had his best offensive season in 2016 because he used the whole field and got away from his pull-oriented approach. His over-aggressiveness at the plate tends to short-circuit his solid-average power.

 

The Future: With Dexter Fowler leaving Chicago, center field is up for grabs. Almora figures to contend with free agent import Jon Jay and holdover Jason Heyward for the everyday job in 2017 but should at least earn at-bats as a fourth outfielder.

 

4. Dylan Cease, rhp

 

Born: Dec. 28, 1995. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 190. Drafted: HS—Milton, Ga., 2014 (6th round). Signed by: Keith Lockhart.

 

Background: An Under Armour All-American in 2013, Cease already has pitched in Wrigley Field, where the event is held. He also already has had Tommy John surgery, which he had as a high school senior after hitting 98 mph that spring. The Cubs signed him for $1.5 million anyway and have handled him carefully, but they were eager to see him in short-season Eugene and he delivered, ranking fourth in the Northwest League in strikeouts (66).

 

Scouting Report: Cease fires the best fastball in the Cubs system, with reports of him hitting 103 mph in extended spring training while sitting 93-98 in the NWL. His arm is loose and he has quick hands, which also allow him to throw a power curveball that improved as the year went on. While his fastball earns 70 grades on the 20-80 scouting scale, Cease’s average curve has plus future potential if not better. The Cubs slowly have introduced a changeup to his repertoire, and while it’s a fringy pitch at this time, it’s serviceable when he’s locating his fastball. Hitters’ best chance for now is to work walks off Cease, because his fastball command lags behind the pitch’s velocity and life.

 

The Future: Cease has the athleticism to tame his wild ways and remain a starter. Many scouts see his raw arm strength and power breaking ball and see a closer in the Craig Kimbrel mold. He’s headed for his first full-season assignment at low Class A South Bend.

 

5. Oscar de la Cruz, rhp

 

Born: March 4, 1995. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-4. Wt.: 200. Signed: Dominican Republic, 2012. Signed by: Jose Serra/Marino Encarnacion.

 

Background: A big-bodied infielder as an amateur, de la Cruz shifted to the mound and signed for $85,000 as a 17-year-old. It took him two years to get to the U.S. thanks to his lack of pitching experience, but he took off in 2015 at short-season Eugene. His progress was stalled in 2016 by a bout of forearm tenderness, and he didn’t pitch in games until July. However, he finished with a flourish at low Class A South Bend, including a six-inning start in the Midwest League playoff opener.

 

Scouting Report: The combination of size, stuff and ceiling makes de la Cruz exciting even though he hasn’t pitched a full season yet. He uses his size and extension in his delivery to drive his fastball downhill with above-average velocity and life. He pitches with angle at 92-94 mph at his best and touches 97, though he frequently sat 89-92 in 2016 due to his lack of consistent activity. Both of de la Cruz’s secondary pitches, a hard curveball and a developing changeup, earn future plus grades, with the curve the better present pitch. He can throw his power breaking ball for strikes, and he has improved the arm speed on his changeup.

 

The Future: De la Cruz has yet to pitch more than 75 innings in a season, but he threw in instructional league and is slated to advance to high Class A Myrtle Beach in 2017.

 

6. Mark Zagunis, of

 

Born: Feb. 5, 1993. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 205. Drafted: Virginia Tech, 2014 (3rd round). Signed by: Billy Swope.

 

Background: Zagunis played catcher and outfield at Virginia Tech and focused on catching as a junior, when the Cubs drafted him with their third selection. After catching in his pro debut, he shifted to an outfield-only role and reached Triple-A Iowa in 2016. His season ended early when a pitch hit him on the foot, breaking his big toe and ending his season in late July.

 

Scouting Report: Cubs officials have compared Zagunis’ strike-zone judgment with Kevin Youkilis. While he still drew walks in 2016, he also became more aggressive on pitches in the zone. His ability to identify pitches early out of the pitcher’s hand allows him to lay off tough pitches and attack mistakes more confidently. He has average bat speed but good strength in his hands and wrists, giving him solid-average power potential. He’s still learning to stay on time and pull the ball in the air, which would produce more homers. An average runner with an above-average arm, Zagunis still needs reps to be an asset defensively.

 

The Future: The Cubs’ big league outfield remains crowded even after the trade of Jorge Soler, meaning Zagunis is ticketed for a full year at Triple-A. Scouts are split on his potential to become a first-division corner regular.

 

7. Jeimer Candelario, 3b

 

Born: Nov. 24, 1993. B-T: B-R. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 210. Signed: Dominican Republic, 2010. Signed by: Jose Serra/Marino Encarnacion.

 

Background: In his sixth pro season, Candelario made a strong impression in big league camp during 2016 spring training, then struggled to open the season in Double-A. He still was promoted to the big leagues July 3 to replace the injured Chris Coghlan on the roster. He got his first (and so far only) hit off Noah Syndergaard, then crushed Triple-A Pacific Coast League pitchers after he was demoted five days after his promotion.

 

Scouting Report: A switch-hitter who controls the strike zone, Candelario has impressed scouts for years with a solid swing from both sides of the plate. He set a career high with 72 walks overall in 2016 and has the strength and plate discipline to get to his average raw power. He’s at his best when using the whole field and not trying to pull the ball. Candelario’s pre-pitch anticipation and consistency on the routine play have improved at third base, where he’s a solid-average defender despite modest range. His above-average arm has become more accurate as he’s cleaned up his footwork. He’s a below-average runner.

 

The Future: Candelario doesn’t run well enough to try the outfield but added some first-base experience in 2016. His only path to playing time in Chicago is as an infield extra.

 

8. Trevor Clifton, rhp

 

Born: May 11, 1995. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 170. Drafted: HS—Maryville, Tenn., 2013 (12th round). Signed by: Keith Rymon.

 

Background: Four of the first 36 players drafted in 2016 were members of the state of Tennessee’s prep class of 2013. Clifton was one of just two preps to turn pro out of the Volunteer State that year, signing for $375,000. He had his breakout in 2016, earning high Class A Carolina League pitcher of the year honors while leading Myrtle Beach to the league title. He led the league in ERA (2.72), WHIP (1.16) and opponent average (.225).

 

Scouting Report: With a body that evokes comparisons with Cubs righty reliever Justin Grimm, Clifton has filled out physically. Club officials put him closer to 6-foot-4, 220 pounds than his listed weight. With the added strength has come more consistent velocity, with an above-average fastball that ranges from 90-95 mph. While he throws both a slider and a curveball, Clifton’s solid-average curve is the better pitch, with shape and depth at its best. When his arm slot floats, though, his breaking balls do as well. He has a solid-average to above-average changeup and shackled lefthanded batters (.205/.280/.268) in 2016. He still needs to add polish, such as improving defensively and quickening his time to the plate.

 

The Future: Clifton is the best bet the Cubs have for a homegrown rotation piece, though he’s likely no more than a No. 4 starter. He heads for Double-A Tennessee, less than an hour from his hometown, in 2017.

 

9. D.J. Wilson, of

 

Born: Oct. 8, 1996. B-T: L-L. Ht.: 5-8. Wt.: 177. Drafted: HS—Canton, Ohio, 2015 (4th round). Signed by: Daniel Carte.

 

Background: Signed away from a Vanderbilt commitment for $1.3 million, Wilson wowed Cubs officials with his workout before the draft and in his pro debut in 2015 between the Rookie-level Arizona League and instructional league. He got off to a slow start at short-season Eugene in 2016 before making significant progress in the second half, helping the Emeralds win the Northwest League title.

 

Scouting Report: One of the organization’s top athletes, Wilson packs power-speed swagger in a smallish frame that evokes Adam Eaton. He’s a dynamic player with bat speed who made adjustments during the season by flattening out what had been a steep bat path. Wilson failed, came to his coaches, took their advice and applied it, lashing line drives to dig out of a 12-for-76 (.158) start. Learning to hit lefthanders (10-for-57, one extra-base hit) will take reps. He has the juice to earn pitchers’ respect, though his power will play more to the gaps than over the fence. Defensively, Wilson shines with surprisingly good instincts for a former prep football star, plus speed to run balls down in the gaps and a plus arm.

 

The Future: Wilson’s aptitude and tools make him a likely future regular, and if he learns to control the strike zone better he could fit the leadoff-hitting center fielder profile. He heads for low Class A South Bend in 2017.

 

10. Jose Albertos, rhp

 

Born: Nov. 7, 1998. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 190. Signed: Mexico, 2015. Signed by: Segio Hernandez/Louie Eljaua.

 

Background: The Cubs have actively and aggressively scouted Mexico in recent years, with Albertos receiving the largest bonus among a group of signees that includes shortstop Isaac Paredes. He officially signed for $1.5 million as part of a package of players the Cubs signed from Tijuana of the Mexican League. He made his pro debut in June 2016 with four electric innings, wowing club officials, but he missed the rest of the season with tightness in his forearm.

 

Scouting Report: Albertos was well-regarded as a prospect as an amateur, but his extended spring training performance had the Cubs excited. His fastball, generally in the 92-94 mph range earlier, jumped to 94-96 and touched 98 for the duration of his debut start. Moreover, he’s shown signs of true fastball command when healthy, throwing strikes with his heater to both sides of the plate. Albertos’ changeup flashes well above-average, overmatching Rookie-level hitters and projecting as a potential 70-grade pitch on the 20-80 scouting scale. His breaking ball was considered ahead of his changeup before he signed, and he’s shown the ability to spin a slider.

The Future: The Cubs handled Albertos extremely carefully all summer and fall, hoping he can gain strength to handle his extreme arm speed and fastball velocity. He’s set for extended spring training and either a repeat of the AZL or potentially short-season Eugene.

[Tryptamine]

Wilson, Zagunis, Candelario, and Albertos in the Top 10. The system, it is not good right now.

 

Agreed on Zagunis and Candelario, but both Wilson and Albertos are gathering quite a following. Albertos especially considering just how little he has thrown and yet I've seen at least 3 different writers refer to his arm and potential as "special".

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Wilson, Zagunis, Candelario, and Albertos in the Top 10. The system, it is not good right now.

 

Agreed on Zagunis and Candelario, but both Wilson and Albertos are gathering quite a following. Albertos especially considering just how little he has thrown and yet I've seen at least 3 different writers refer to his arm and potential as "special".

 

Both are prospects well worth having, but Wilson had a .691 OPS at Eugene, and Albertos has literally one professional start to his name for 4 professional innings. The takeaway is not 'ugh these guys are never going to be good', it's that where they stand today they shouldn't be the cream of the crop for an entire major league system.

[craig]

The write ups on the rest of the top 10. Sorry for the incoming huge walls of text....

 

Thanks so much for that huge wall of text! Very, very much appreciated! :)

[craig]

...Both are prospects well worth having, but Wilson had a .691 OPS at Eugene, and Albertos has literally one professional start to his name for 4 professional innings. The takeaway is not 'ugh these guys are never going to be good', it's that where they stand today they shouldn't be the cream of the crop for an entire major league system.

 

Sharma allegedly tweeted out that he has heard that Albertos is the Cubs best pitching prospect.

 

That's interesting, for a kid who's pitched four innings or whatever in his career, and is years away. all of the Albertos stuff is all coming from the Cubs, obviously. It's not like Manuel or many of the other list-makers were attending and scouting his four innings. So, we can be skeptics and figure the Cubs are just hyping for hype's sake. Or perhaps that even if their are Cub sources that honestly believe that, that their opinion is about as dumb as when Fleita glass-is-full hyped many worthless prospects.

 

But, for me as the optimist, I tend to accept the Cubs input at face-value.

1. They have shown pretty good evaluation skills/record to warrant that. So assuming they honestly believe that, I'm fascinated.

2. They've generally seemed to be pretty honest and straightforward. Don't see why they'd be spinning a false story here.

3. I also don't see any strategic advantage in spinning a false story that some of them think Albertos is a better prospect than Cease, de la Cruz, and Clifton. If you're trying to make up trade value by dishonest spin/hype, you'd be better off to spin-up the relative value of Cease, de la Cruz, and Clifton than to down-hype them as not-even-as-good-as-the-4-inning-guy.

 

There were reports of some scouts thinking Albertos might have been the best pitching prospect in the international pool that summer. That was before the account of him having added several mph since, despite not being a real "projection" body. And that was before the accounts of him changeup supposedly now looking like a potential 70, in addition to the strong breaking pitch as amateur.

 

When making these top-10 lists, I think BA doesn't want to "miss" on a potential star. Manuel made some comment to the effect that he was going to make sure he got Albertos into his Top 10 one way or another. If Martinez becomes a functional 4th OFer or OK regular, and BA "missed" and left him off the top 10, o well. But if Albertos becomes a star and a top-20 prospect, Manuel didn't want to have "missed" and left him off when he already knew that possibility was present.

 

But year, he's a teenager who hasn't pitched much. Who knows, perhaps the 2017 Albertos will be about as disappointing as Stinnett turned out to be, after the Cubs were all so gung-ho about his possibilities.

[jersey cubs fan]

Who is the pudgy assistant football coach at number 10?

 

[craig]

..Both are prospects well worth having, but Wilson had a .691 OPS at Eugene, and Albertos has literally one professional start to his name for 4 professional innings. The takeaway is not 'ugh these guys are never going to be good', it's that where they stand today they shouldn't be the cream of the crop for an entire major league system.

 

Wilson is the odd one to me. His bad-half-good-half layout makes for potential over-rating, I think. The story appears like "he figured it out", but may as well be a case of any hitter who has some random hot-and-cold spells. That he ended up kinda cold doens't support the "figured it out" view, but who knows.

 

I thought his was odd, in that Manuel left Hatch off his list, even though his comments in the chat were really enthusiastic for Hatch.

 

"Hatch was fantastic in college this year and will move quickly after what he showed the Cubs in instructs — advanced FB command and a plus slide piece at its best. Darin Erstad compared his slider to that of Brad Lidge in a story on the BA site earlier this season, and that’s high praise. .....Hatch has it all over Clark in terms of pitchability, command, etc."

 

Manuel projects Hatch at A+, talks pitchability/command, if his slider has Lidge comparisons that's really good, etc.. That seems pretty top-10-ish to me; that Manuel could be so positive on Hatch, but still have him behind wilson, not sure what that says. Heh heh, maybe that Manuel is a dope; maybe that he REALLY likes Wilson; or maybe that his positives on Hatch don't reflect some negatives as well.