Cubs Offseason Top Prospects Lists (BA, BP, Sickels, etc)

[craig]

I was intrigued by how many references Manuel made to having a lot of good arms in the low minors. Not sure I totally track what he's thinking, maybe it's Cease/de la Cruz/Clifton/Hatch/Albertos he's thinking about. But my first read was that he wasn't really thinking about them so much, as a depth of other possible-emergence arms, particularly in terms of arms way down below the full-season world. Again, I have no idea, Manuel may be naive or ill-informed, and of course every team has arms that might emerge. But I got the impression Manuel thinks the Cubs have an unusually deep collection, I wouldn't have assumed that myself.

 

"The lower levels of the Cubs system have talent, which is evident in the rosters at short-season Eugene, low Class A South Bend and high Class A Myrtle Beach. The Cubs have more intriguing arms at the lower levels...

"With all the Cubs’ lower-level arms "

"then the dpeth of arms at lower levels"

"pity Jaron Madison, the farm director who has to find innings for all these lower-level pitchers. Good luck with that Jaron!"

"South Bend’s rotation is going to be really crowded"

"I decided the Cubs had enough young guys with upside that I didn’t have to rank every middle reliever"

[toonsterwu]

I was, at first, mildly confused/intrigued with Manuel's comments about so much pitching talent in the lower levels that it'll be hard to find opportunities (particularly since he was so lukewarm on several guys), but to an extent, I sort of ... agree. Now ... I don't think we're that deep in the low levels in terms of high quality talent that the organization should be that enthused just yet, but there should be healthy competition starting from A+ on down for spots, particularly if Hatch makes the jump to MB. I'll be curious what their decision is in regards to where de la Cruz starts the year. There's some older college arms that were at South Bend last year that really don't need to go back there, but ... it doesn't seem like a lock that they will get rotation spots in Myrtle Beach.

 

____________

 

I certainly get the ... concerns ... about the system, but as it pertains to rankings, there's a lot of fluff/mediocrity on the back end of top 10 lists, particularly on the ones BA has put out so far. Again, that may be a testament more to the trend of systems loading up and teams going for it, leading to an imbalance in system strengths in the minors, but I really don't have huge issues with Albertos (it's basically your classic upside nod ... sure you'd like there to be more than 4 innings of work to judge on from this past year, but I recall rankings where quality arms coming off injuries still stayed in Top 10 lists), Wilson (fair to question if it's hot/cold, but I think they are viewing it from the prism of youth and upside of Wilson and giving the benefit of the doubt, which I don't have a problem with).

 

I really don't have an issue with Zagunis. It's your typical upper level, floor, ready to help nod vs. ceiling, but it's not like Zagunis' doesn't have a shot to be a MLB regular. Perhaps not a first division regular, but there's enough to work with there. To be quite honest, I would question his bat speed as a bigger issue in regards to his potential to be a MLB regular than defensive consistency (I believe that's what Manuel questioned).

[imb]

what could the "crazy on the down-low" comp be for Eloy that Cubs officials gave Manuel? It's not Stanton, because he mentioned him. Sammy?

[David]

what could the "crazy on the down-low" comp be for Eloy that Cubs officials gave Manuel? It's not Stanton, because he mentioned him. Sammy?

 

manny

[imb]

what could the "crazy on the down-low" comp be for Eloy that Cubs officials gave Manuel? It's not Stanton, because he mentioned him. Sammy?

 

manny

 

strange comp since eloy has been pretty allergic to walks, but i guess if they're super high on his hit tool there's not much else to compare him to

[David]

what could the "crazy on the down-low" comp be for Eloy that Cubs officials gave Manuel? It's not Stanton, because he mentioned him. Sammy?

 

manny

 

strange comp since eloy has been pretty allergic to walks, but i guess if they're super high on his hit tool there's not much else to compare him to

 

when you put it that way...vlad?

[imb]

 

manny

 

strange comp since eloy has been pretty allergic to walks, but i guess if they're super high on his hit tool there's not much else to compare him to

 

when you put it that way...vlad?

 

that's kind of what i had in my mind, but it's almost more preposterous than manny because vlad was just such a freak

[Ding Dong Johnson]

vlad was mentioned when he was originally signed

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Vlad had a 10.9% K rate for his career, holy smokes

 

Healthy Andre Dawson would be another interesting best case.

[Cubswin11]

Miguel Tejada maybe too?

[CubsWin]

Wilson, Zagunis, Candelario, and Albertos in the Top 10. The system, it is not good right now.

 

Agreed on Zagunis and Candelario, but both Wilson and Albertos are gathering quite a following. Albertos especially considering just how little he has thrown and yet I've seen at least 3 different writers refer to his arm and potential as "special".

The day Albertos' signing was announced I did some digging and found a Spanish language article that said some scouts considered him among the top 3 pitchers in that year's IFA class putting him up there with Yadier Alvarez, Vladimir Gutierrez and Alvaro Seijas.

 

I had to read it again. I had never heard of the guy. Badler had never mentioned him. I thought for sure the author must have meant top 3 in the Mexican League. I speak a little Spanish and could see there was nothing wrong with the translation. Looks like the Cubs found themselves a gem amongst the cacti.

[David]

i prospect nerded the hell up when we were awful, but it amazes me how some can still be hard core prospect nerding. god bless you guys.

[imb]

i prospect nerded the hell up when we were awful, but it amazes me how some can still be hard core prospect nerding. god bless you guys.

 

yeah that's next level

[davell]

Badler was flat out lazy on Albertos. He said he heard about him, but didn't see a reason to research him.

[toonsterwu]

Moises Alou for Jimenez, maybe?

 

Doesn't feel like a comp that would need to be on the down low, though.

 

I keep thinking that the guys Manuel knows and references are probably at the top, so along with manny, my other thought, thinking solely on bat, is a bit strange, but perhaps nomar, if they buy eloy learning and getting better on discipline with time.

[Tryptamine]

i prospect nerded the hell up when we were awful, but it amazes me how some can still be hard core prospect nerding. god bless you guys.

 

yeah that's next level

 

16 team dynasty league with 25 prospects per team otherwise I probably wouldn't spent anywhere near the time I do.

[Tryptamine]

Comparison wise, I think it has to be Miguel Cabrera. They both have tons of pop and Miggy for the most part struck out less than 18% and while he did have an ocassional season of 13 or 15BB% he for the most part was around 9-11%.

[CubsWin]

...but it's also telling that all the Candelario conversation from Cubs fans(who are going to overrate him the most) is "what can we get for Candelario" and not "how can we fit Candelario in the roster/lineup".

That may have something to do with that he only plays 3B and 1B and the Cubs have 2 perennial MVP contenders in their 20s at those positions.

 

That said, I'm not fully in Candelario's corner. I think we will learn a lot from how consistently he handles AAA this year. You could be right on the cold weather thing.

 

But he's easily the best of that list of 4 (Wilson, Zagunis, Candelario and Albertos), it's more that he's in the Top 10 and those other guys are too.

True. While this is system is still plenty deep, the high end talent in full season ball is almost all gone. Wilson and Albertos have the highest ceilings/best tools of the guys that are left after the top 7, and I think that's why they were ranked this highly by BA. They are so far away and unestablished though that they don't match up to other organization's top 10 guys.

 

But I'm more bullish than ever on Cubs prospects (the hitters more so than the pitchers but that might be changing) because of the track record the Cubs developmental and scouting staffs have had under Jason McLeod.

 

The improvement of Baez, Contreras, Vogelbach and Candelario has been remarkable. The scouting side nailed Bryant, Schwarber, gets a passing grade on Happ thus far and deserves a steak dinner just for finding someone with Albertos' arm before anybody else did. Both scouting and development can put feathers in their caps on Torres, Jimenez, Clifton, De La Cruz, Zagunis and Ryan Williams among others.

 

If BA thinks Wilson and Albertos have high ceilings, plus tools and the make-up & athleticism to come close to reaching their ceilings, good. With McLeod's track record, I'll take it.

 

But yeah, one thing you can't do is speed up time to fill the holes left by all the graduations and trades. Until some of Wilson, Albertos, Ademan, Sierra, Hudson, Paredes, Galindo and even college guys like Hatch and Clark establish themselves more fully, the legitimacy of the Cubs top 10 will be pretty thin by comparison.

[CubsWin]

Comparison wise, I think it has to be Miguel Cabrera. They both have tons of pop and Miggy for the most part struck out less than 18% and while he did have an ocassional season of 13 or 15BB% he for the most part was around 9-11%.

I was like if he's okay with mentioning Stanton but thinks he should hold back a different name for fear of getting hopes up to high, it's got to be Miggy or somebody like that.

[toonsterwu]

I still believe that it's probably Manny they were referencing (Boston connection to top leadership, higher hit tool, LF, not exactly a top tier athlete, and so forth, but that means they really buy Eloy's strike zone discipline improving a lot). Just for fun, but if they were just making an offensive comparison and they REALLY believed in Eloy's bat ... Alex Rodriguez isn't out of question. Here's a long armed, long levered guy who had some scouts question him about a potentially long swing when he was young, but had top end hit tool and power grades when he was young. A far superior athlete and played a premium position, so the comparison would really only exist on the offensive side.

 

It'll be fascinating to see how Eloy's discipline carries to A+ and on up. Manuel's/BA's comments reads as if they really believe that he will improve on those aspects a bit (not suggesting any sort of dramatic improvement, just steady improvement).

[CaliforniaRaisin]

It's not related to Manuel's comp but midway through last season, BP or Fangraphs threw a Kris Bryant comp Eloy's way.

[Thrilho]

It's not related to Manuel's comp but midway through last season, BP or Fangraphs threw a Kris Bryant comp Eloy's way.

That's the first guy I thought of. Similar body type, Eloys got some Ks but a high BA, then the power. Maybe not very creative historically but there aren't THAT many greats who were Eloy's size. Plus that's the sort of comparison I'm sure they wouldn't want getting out. It's not like they've been bashful about comparing players to historical greats (see the constantly dropped Javy might be Manny quote from McLeod). So yeah Bryant could make sense.

[Thrilho]

Wilken is the guy who said the Baez/Manny thing and not McLeod.

 

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/former-scouting-directors-faith-in-javier-baez-pays-off-for-chicago-cubs-101416

 

McLeod said he saw Baez twice that season, once against a much weaker team in Tennessee.

 

“He hit three home runs in a double-header but at the same time also swung and missed five times at well below-average high-school pitching,” McLeod said

 

“I remember calling Jed after the game and saying, ‘This guy may be Manny Ramirez, or he might never get out of Double A!’ We weren’t convicted on the hit tool at the time and probably could have done a better job getting to know him personally.”

[Thrilho]

Yeah, I read that wrong.

Yeah, the context is different vs this Eloy thing. It's not like McLeod had a super secret down low comparison of Javy to Ramirez after a couple seasons of monster success like Eloy. It was more "he could be awesome player X or a complete bust" after a couple viewings of HS Javy. And he obviously didn't believe the Manny thing too much because they didn't draft him.

 

And the more I thought about it after I said that thing about how they're not bashful about dropping comps I couldn't really remember them dropping many others. So the super secret down low comparison could really be anyone and they don't want to screw with Eloy's head. KB would make some sense though, because MVP Bryant doesn't want to hear comparisons to an A baller in his own org and Eloy doesn't need to be comp'd to the MVP on the big club.

[CubsWin]

It's not related to Manuel's comp but midway through last season, BP or Fangraphs threw a Kris Bryant comp Eloy's way.

You know what though, that would make perfect sense if that's who Manuel was referring to. Cubs fans are over the moon about Bryant right now (and why wouldn't they be). If I were Manuel, there's no way I would give Eloy a Bryant comp in an effort to keep expectations (and Cubs fans over-reaction) down to a manageable level.