Cubs Offseason Top Prospects Lists (BA, BP, Sickels, etc)

[craig]

Jimenez at 9 is interesting. What did they say?

 

No idea, unfortunately. I was just given the top 101. None of it has been published online yet.

 

I assume they have a condensation of the same thing they had in Cubs top-20.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=30977

[toonsterwu]

So I live in Frederick, MD, which is where the Orioles' A+ team plays. I can get a ticket package deal where I pick and choose 10 home games to go see. Realistically, I'm mostly interested in seeing Eloy when the MB Pelicans are in town, which happens 10 times this season. Is it worth it to get the 10 ticket package, or is Eloy gonna be moving on to AA by mid-season? It's not really that pricey, I just know I probably won't have as much interest if Eloy isn't gonna be there to go see.

 

Thoughts?

 

Hey, you are in this neck of the world? I go to Harry Grove a few times a year, not necessarily for any specific team. Back in the day, the gun at Harry Grove sorta sucked - I forget who it was that the Orioles had, but the gun readings there were always significantly higher. It seems to have gotten better the last few years.

 

My hunch is that Eloy is going to be slow-played unless he absolutely balls out. I don't think they see a need to rush the kid unless he absolutely forces his way up, and I'm thinking he's going to need a monstrous, just monstrous run. Tbh ... I wouldn't rule it out. I'd be surprised if Eloy had huge problems in this circuit - if he has any adjustment issues, I suspect it'll be Tennessee, when the offspeed offerings become tougher and sharper.

[toonsterwu]

BA has Cease at 97, Almora at 64, Happ at 63, and Eloy at 14.

 

I don't have a problem with any of the Cubs placings ... but boy ... that top of the list ... maybe it's just a weaker year for the farm overall ...

 

I like Gleyber a lot ... but ... he's the 5th best prospect in baseball right now? Can't say I really love the placement of other MI's like Rosario/Adames/Albies - seems like they had a big MI bump.

 

Still ... looking through the list ... it's not like there are a lot of people that I would kick up the ladder significantly ... so maybe it is just a weaker overall year at the top in the minors.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA is out with their Cubs list:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-chicago-cubs-top-10-prospects/#UPE4fy6XmmOr4CW3.97

 

1. Eloy Jimenez, of

2. Ian Happ, 2b/of

3. Albert Almora, of

4. Dylan Cease, rhp

5. Oscar de la Cruz, rhp

6. Mark Zagunis, of

7. Jeimer Candelario, 3b

8. Trevor Clifton, rhp

9. D.J. Wilson, of

10. Jose Albertos, rhp

 

I got the BA Prospect Handbook today. Here's the rest of the Cubs top 31:

 

11. Eddy Martinez, OF

12. Donnie Dewees, OF

13. Thomas Hatch, RHP

14. Rob Zastryzny, LHP

15. Duane Underwood, RHP

16. Chesny Young, 2B/3B

17. Victor Caratini, C/1B

18. Wladimir Galindo, 3B

19. Pierce Johnson, RHP

20. Erling Moreno, RHP

21. Jose Paulino, LHP

22. PJ Higgins, C

23. Jacob Hannemann, OF

24. Justin Steele, LHP

25. Bryan Hudson, LHP

26. David Bote, 3B/2B

27. Jack Leathersich

28. Bailey Clark, RHP

29. Isaac Paredes, SS

30. Chris Pieters, OF/1B

31. Caleb Smith, LHP

 

Amusing that Jose Rosario cracked Fangraphs' top 10 but can't make BA's top 31.

[Post Count Padder]

Bote, Pieters, Leatherstich and Caleb Smith? Really?

[davell]

BA is out with their Cubs list:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-chicago-cubs-top-10-prospects/#UPE4fy6XmmOr4CW3.97

 

1. Eloy Jimenez, of

2. Ian Happ, 2b/of

3. Albert Almora, of

4. Dylan Cease, rhp

5. Oscar de la Cruz, rhp

6. Mark Zagunis, of

7. Jeimer Candelario, 3b

8. Trevor Clifton, rhp

9. D.J. Wilson, of

10. Jose Albertos, rhp

 

I got the BA Prospect Handbook today. Here's the rest of the Cubs top 31:

 

11. Eddy Martinez, OF

12. Donnie Dewees, OF

13. Thomas Hatch, RHP

14. Rob Zastryzny, LHP

15. Duane Underwood, RHP

16. Chesny Young, 2B/3B

17. Victor Caratini, C/1B

18. Wladimir Galindo, 3B

19. Pierce Johnson, RHP

20. Erling Moreno, RHP

21. Jose Paulino, LHP

22. PJ Higgins, C

23. Jacob Hannemann, OF

24. Justin Steele, LHP

25. Bryan Hudson, LHP

26. David Bote, 3B/2B

27. Jack Leathersich

28. Bailey Clark, RHP

29. Isaac Paredes, SS

30. Chris Pieters, OF/1B

31. Caleb Smith, LHP

 

Amusing that Jose Rosario cracked Fangraphs' top 10 but can't make BA's top 31.

 

Wow, that's an awful list....Rosario and Pena are much, much more likely to be long term major leaguers than Johnson or Caleb Smith.

 

David Bote? I'd venture that Sepulveda is quite a bit more highly thought of.....

 

Pieters? Eh, I'd take my chances on Ryan Williams and Hedges floors over whatever perceived ceiling they must think Pieters has, even if the positions don't match.

[toonsterwu]

It is, admittedly, an odd list. I'm actually okay with no Pena - by most accounts that I saw, it's pretty much average stuff across the board, so okay.

 

Even if you think that the Rosario reports were over-hyped ... it seems far more likely as of right now that he has a better shot of doing something in the bigs than Pierce Johnson. I would argue that Johnson is too high (and not that Rosario should be that high).

 

Don't they lean heavily on Cubs sources for these lists, though? If so, may say more about the Cubs feelings on Pierce Johnson than it having anything to do as a reflection on Jose Rosario.

[craig]

Yeah, think the Cubs still see internally think Johnson has a chance to be good, and to have good stuff. I would be interested to see how his performance would be if he ever stayed healthy for 6 straight months.

 

Bote was an interesting name to include. Guy had a really good season for Myrtle, over .900 OPS, slugged over .500, OBP over .400, and he plays OK infield. Kind of fun for us, after all of the successful graduations, to be ridiculing the inclusion of a >.900-OPS not-bad-defensive infielder at the back end of a top-30.

 

Johnson's been kind of a weird minor league journey. Seems things are constantly changing. Kind of odd that last year his K/inning rate increased by almost 40%, which you'd think might be good; but his ERA almost tripled. My recall is that he finished pretty well, in relief.

 

When a guy's 25 and he's never been able to sustained, health, style, control, pitch mixture, obviously unlikely that he ever will. But I think it's pretty evident that he's got some pretty good stuff. If he could ever put that stuff together, I still think he's got a shot to be variably useful. Obviously I'm an optimist, so what can I say.

 

But I'm somewhat hopeful that with the Cubs hypothetically improved development system, we'll more often have guys who get better over time, and whose present and future profile may not always be well represented by some of their past performance.

 

*Maybe Bote is better represented by his forgettable 2014 and 2015 results than his 2016 results; but maybe the Cubs development helped him to get better, and the 2017 better represents what he is now and will be future than the 2014-2015 version of himself?

 

*Maybe Johnson has been exploring and tinkering, add the cutter, adjust the change, etc., and eventually he'll settle in? I'm kind of thinking of Samardzija, who was constantly changing his breaking ball and his approach, and then eventually settled into something that worked really well for him. Not at all suggesting that Johnson has any future as "good Samardz", but simply that his development might possibly have that kind of wandering trajectory, but eventually settle into something that will actually work OK.

[craig]

BA book said several scouts gave Mekkes a 70 on his fastball effectiveness. Even though he maybe only rests at 92, because it's so deceptive.

[craig]

Said Pierce Johnson had 35K/22IP after he moved to bullpen, stopped using his change and cutter, and mostly just did fastball/breaking ball.

 

Said Moreno got faster as the summer progressed, and that some scouts think he'll get faster still. Gave him good scores on his fastball, his change, and said his breaking ball was inconsistent but flashed quite well at times.

 

Will be interesting to see how his stuff looks in full-season. He'll be 20, could be interesting to see if there is any growth in stuff or excellence. Not sure how much ceiling there is, but not inconceivable for a guy's stuff and velocity to mature.

[craig]

..what do they say about Paredes?

 

Paredes writeup is really favorable. "squat and thick.... Peralta..."

"But he has great hands that play at the plate and i the field, and he has surprising agility with nimble, quick feet. An average runner, Paredes has an above-average arm that may work at third base if he has to move.... an advanced hitter for his age with an all-field approached, some pop and good plate discipline."

"....He should go back to South Bend fo 2017 as a 19-year-old".

 

Obviously they have his age wrong; he just turned 18 last week.

 

Really all-positive. Hopefully that plays out. I was most encouraged by the "surprising agility with nimble, quick feet" bit.

 

Given the enthusiastic writeup, it's odd that he's ranked behind guys like David Bote, Jack Leathersich and Bailey Clark, and barely in front of Chris Pieters and Caleb Smith. Usually they like to bump up ceiling guys, so that in case a guy pans out BA will have been ahead of the curve. (See Albertos in top-10.)

 

I wonder if the "some pop" is perhaps the semi-weak limiting factor in their analysis? (For example, in writing up David Bote they refer to "present strength" and "enough bat speed to produce solid-average power.")

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I don't think there's too much mystery why BA and others will gamble on Albertos over Paredes at this stage. Albertos cost $1.5 million to sign. That's huge for a Mexican IFA, nearly double that of Parades and huge for an amateur pitcher signing by the Cubs. That bonus put him on the map and plays some part of why he moved past sleeper so quickly given the lack of otherwise outstanding views and game info. As Cubs P prospects, probably P prospects in general, go even with the missed time he's still way ahead of everyone else at the same age too.

 

And Albertos' stuff isn't questioned like Paredes' big league position.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

MLB.com's top 30 is out. I still think Callis is the best.

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=chc

 

1. Eloy Jimenez

2. Ian Happ

3. Albert Almora

4. Dylan Cease

5. Jeimer Candelario

6. Oscar de la Cruz

7. Mark Zagunis

8. Trevor Clifton

9. Jose Albertos

10. DJ Wilson

11. Eddy Martinez

12. Thomas Hatch

13. Victor Caratini

14. Chesny Young

15. Jose Paulino

16. Duane Underwood

17. Aramis Ademan

18. Carlos Sepulveda

19. Isaac Paredes

20. Jose Rosario

21. Felix Peña

22. Alec Mills

23. Rob Zastryzny

24. Pierce Johnson

25. Bryan Hudson

26. Jacob Hannemann

27. Ryan Williams

28. Bailey Clark

29. PJ Higgins

30. Preston Morrison

[Post Count Padder]

Kinda surprised how low these guys are:

 

22. Alec Mills

23. Rob Zastryzny

24. Pierce Johnson

25. Bryan Hudson

26. Jacob Hannemann

27. Ryan Williams

 

Considering their makeup and each having a decent shot to make the majors soon.

[davell]

Kinda surprised how low these guys are:

 

22. Alec Mills

23. Rob Zastryzny

24. Pierce Johnson

25. Bryan Hudson

26. Jacob Hannemann

27. Ryan Williams

 

Considering their makeup and each having a decent shot to make the majors soon.

 

Hudson? Who are you confusing him with?

[davell]

As far as that list goes, I think its probably the closest to my own rankings as any of them. I'd add Moreno and Steele, drop Morrison for sure. Then debate between Hannemann and Hudson, to see who is 30th for me.

[Post Count Padder]

Kinda surprised how low these guys are:

 

22. Alec Mills

23. Rob Zastryzny

24. Pierce Johnson

25. Bryan Hudson

26. Jacob Hannemann

27. Ryan Williams

 

Considering their makeup and each having a decent shot to make the majors soon.

 

Hudson? Who are you confusing him with?

Yeah I overlooked him in that list. The rest, relevant.

[davell]

Kinda surprised how low these guys are:

 

22. Alec Mills

23. Rob Zastryzny

24. Pierce Johnson

25. Bryan Hudson

26. Jacob Hannemann

27. Ryan Williams

 

Considering their makeup and each having a decent shot to make the majors soon.

 

Hudson? Who are you confusing him with?

Yeah I overlooked him in that list. The rest, relevant.

 

 

It IS an interesting group......

 

I'd go Zastryzny, Mills, Williams, Johnson, Hannemann, in ranking that exact set.

[davell]

[toonsterwu]

I agree with Raisin that Callis is still probably the best, at least, as it pertains to Cubs lists. I like that list at first glance ... no real quibbles.

 

Kinda surprised how low these guys are:

 

22. Alec Mills

23. Rob Zastryzny

24. Pierce Johnson

25. Bryan Hudson

26. Jacob Hannemann

27. Ryan Williams

 

Considering their makeup and each having a decent shot to make the majors soon.

 

Who would you plop them ahead of on Callis' list, though? With Mills/Zastryzny/Williams, we're talking largely end of the rotation possibilities. Johnson's probably more middle relief at this stage, although if he found something late in the year, the raw fastball/breaking ball combination back in the day had enough potential to possibly think about a late inning arm. Considering his career path so far, though, hard to get excited. Much as I am not as down on Hudson as everyone seems to be (I guess it's relative) ... he's raw and really far away and Hannemann is 26 ... at some point, hope for the tools drops low.

 

I mean, from his 14-21 ... I'd take Ademan/Paredes/Sepulveda over them on youth, up the middle, and upside (btw ... was that the first mention of Sepulveda as a possible catcher ... I don't recall hearing much about that before ... that'd be fascinating ... somewhat reminiscent of Robinson Chirinos making the move back in the day). I guess I can understand some questioning of Paulino being that high (that writeup is extremely positive, it seems ... and uh ... he claimed a 40 man spot? guess there wasn't a proofreader), although his ceiling is more intriguing than those guys in the 20's. Underwood is a lightning rod point, I guess ... but being in the top 20 is probably okay for most. Rosario and Young are two guys that seem like they could help soon and in a more significant role than some of those upper level guys in the 20's. That leaves Pena at 21, which I'd be fine dropping him and sliding others up.

 

All in all, not sure who you'd jump a lot of those guys on the list over. I could see sliding Alec Mills up several slots.

[Post Count Padder]

I agree with Raisin that Callis is still probably the best, at least, as it pertains to Cubs lists. I like that list at first glance ... no real quibbles.

 

Kinda surprised how low these guys are:

 

22. Alec Mills

23. Rob Zastryzny

24. Pierce Johnson

25. Bryan Hudson

26. Jacob Hannemann

27. Ryan Williams

 

Considering their makeup and each having a decent shot to make the majors soon.

 

Who would you plop them ahead of on Callis' list, though? With Mills/Zastryzny/Williams, we're talking largely end of the rotation possibilities. Johnson's probably more middle relief at this stage, although if he found something late in the year, the raw fastball/breaking ball combination back in the day had enough potential to possibly think about a late inning arm. Considering his career path so far, though, hard to get excited. Much as I am not as down on Hudson as everyone seems to be (I guess it's relative) ... he's raw and really far away and Hannemann is 26 ... at some point, hope for the tools drops low.

 

I mean, from his 14-21 ... I'd take Ademan/Paredes/Sepulveda over them on youth, up the middle, and upside (btw ... was that the first mention of Sepulveda as a possible catcher ... I don't recall hearing much about that before ... that'd be fascinating ... somewhat reminiscent of Robinson Chirinos making the move back in the day). I guess I can understand some questioning of Paulino being that high (that writeup is extremely positive, it seems ... and uh ... he claimed a 40 man spot? guess there wasn't a proofreader), although his ceiling is more intriguing than those guys in the 20's. Underwood is a lightning rod point, I guess ... but being in the top 20 is probably okay for most. Rosario and Young are two guys that seem like they could help soon and in a more significant role than some of those upper level guys in the 20's. That leaves Pena at 21, which I'd be fine dropping him and sliding others up.

 

All in all, not sure who you'd jump a lot of those guys on the list over. I could see sliding Alec Mills up several slots.

I'd honestly slot them above everyone 14 or lower save for Paredes and maybe Ademan. I'm not super high on Underwood anymore. None of the others there impress me that much. I guess we're not slotting them a lot higher and I guess it becomes a crapshoot with a lot of these guys once we get past the top 10-12 but I like their chances to be somewhat decent major leaguers.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I agree with Raisin that Callis is still probably the best, at least, as it pertains to Cubs lists. I like that list at first glance ... no real quibbles.

 

Kinda surprised how low these guys are:

 

22. Alec Mills

23. Rob Zastryzny

24. Pierce Johnson

25. Bryan Hudson

26. Jacob Hannemann

27. Ryan Williams

 

Considering their makeup and each having a decent shot to make the majors soon.

 

Who would you plop them ahead of on Callis' list, though? With Mills/Zastryzny/Williams, we're talking largely end of the rotation possibilities. Johnson's probably more middle relief at this stage, although if he found something late in the year, the raw fastball/breaking ball combination back in the day had enough potential to possibly think about a late inning arm. Considering his career path so far, though, hard to get excited. Much as I am not as down on Hudson as everyone seems to be (I guess it's relative) ... he's raw and really far away and Hannemann is 26 ... at some point, hope for the tools drops low.

 

I mean, from his 14-21 ... I'd take Ademan/Paredes/Sepulveda over them on youth, up the middle, and upside (btw ... was that the first mention of Sepulveda as a possible catcher ... I don't recall hearing much about that before ... that'd be fascinating ... somewhat reminiscent of Robinson Chirinos making the move back in the day). I guess I can understand some questioning of Paulino being that high (that writeup is extremely positive, it seems ... and uh ... he claimed a 40 man spot? guess there wasn't a proofreader), although his ceiling is more intriguing than those guys in the 20's. Underwood is a lightning rod point, I guess ... but being in the top 20 is probably okay for most. Rosario and Young are two guys that seem like they could help soon and in a more significant role than some of those upper level guys in the 20's. That leaves Pena at 21, which I'd be fine dropping him and sliding others up.

 

All in all, not sure who you'd jump a lot of those guys on the list over. I could see sliding Alec Mills up several slots.

I'd honestly slot them above everyone 14 or lower save for Paredes and maybe Ademan. I'm not super high on Underwood anymore. None of the others there impress me that much. I guess we're not slotting them a lot higher and I guess it becomes a crapshoot with a lot of these guys once we get past the top 10-12 but I like their chances to be somewhat decent major leaguers.

 

I'm with you on Zastryzny and Mills since they can slot into the back of a big league rotation immediately. I don't see any glaring issues with Williams (injuries/limited ceiling), Johnson (injuries/horrible 2016) and Hudson (stuff regressed, extremely raw and far from the big leagues) in the back end of the top 30, even if we disagree with some of the guys ahead of them.

[We Got The Whole 9]

I liked Happ inside outing that double

[jumbo]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/katohs-2017-top-100-prospects

 

Jimenez at 18

Paredes at 50

Candelario 77

Happ 82

Zagunis 83

 

Paredes moves up to 43 when ranked solely based on periphs and age

 

Almora was 71

 

Gleyber was 13

[We Got The Whole 9]

Didn't KATOH love Taylor Davis last year or am I thinking of another system?