Cubs Offseason Top Prospects Lists (BA, BP, Sickels, etc)

[KingCubsFan]

 

I don't have the write up, but he has Happ at 63 today.

He sees him as a guy with a solid OBP, 20 homers a year and .260-.270. So good enough to start on most teams, just not our infield.

 

sounds like the type of player who could start at 2B for us if the defense is passable.

I was being a bit facetious. But realistically, Happ's ability to start on our team hinges on Javy, Eloy and Zobrist.

[David]

He sees him as a guy with a solid OBP, 20 homers a year and .260-.270. So good enough to start on most teams, just not our infield.

 

sounds like the type of player who could start at 2B for us if the defense is passable.

I was being a bit facetious. But realistically, Happ's ability to start on our team hinges on Javy, Eloy and Zobrist.

 

i'm just saying that if he actually amounts to that (those numbers at the plate and average-ish fielding), he's probably our best longer term 2B once zobrist stops defying age.

 

actually, that player would pretty much be the 4 win zobrist we saw last year.

[Thrilho]

 

sounds like the type of player who could start at 2B for us if the defense is passable.

I was being a bit facetious. But realistically, Happ's ability to start on our team hinges on Javy, Eloy and Zobrist.

 

i'm just saying that if he actually amounts to that (those numbers at the plate and average-ish fielding), he's probably our best longer term 2B once zobrist stops defying age.

 

actually, that player would pretty much be the 4 win zobrist we saw last year.

At "passable" defense I'd want to hear more about the OBP. Zo was a 4.0 win player with a .386 OBP and 18 HRs and -1.5 UZR/150. So if Happ is .270 at the top end of his estimated BA spectrum he'd need to match Zobrist's 15% walk rate for the 4 wins.

 

I know that's taking the Zobrist comp and 4 wins super literally, but on the other hand Javy had the .272 BA and paced for about 19 HRs per 600 PAs with awesome defense. So I could Happ in a time share with Baez and outfield guys, but in my mind he'd have to outpace that 20 HR, come up with a lot of walks, or play better than passable D to overtake Javy.

 

But luckily they both can play multiple positions and can function as a platoon, so I could both as a fit long term.

[David]

I was being a bit facetious. But realistically, Happ's ability to start on our team hinges on Javy, Eloy and Zobrist.

 

i'm just saying that if he actually amounts to that (those numbers at the plate and average-ish fielding), he's probably our best longer term 2B once zobrist stops defying age.

 

actually, that player would pretty much be the 4 win zobrist we saw last year.

At "passable" defense I'd want to hear more about the OBP. Zo was a 4.0 win player with a .386 OBP and 18 HRs and -1.5 UZR/150. So if Happ is .270 at the top end of his estimated BA spectrum he'd need to match Zobrist's 15% walk rate for the 4 wins.

 

I know that's taking the Zobrist comp and 4 wins super literally, but on the other hand Javy had the .272 BA and paced for about 19 HRs per 600 PAs with awesome defense. So I could Happ in a time share with Baez and outfield guys, but in my mind he'd have to outpace that 20 HR, come up with a lot of walks, or play better than passable D to overtake Javy.

 

But luckily they both can play multiple positions and can function as a platoon, so I could both as a fit long term.

 

javy's was also heavily dependent on crazy good defense and he was big time protected from tough matchups at the plate, so i wouldn't get too crazy about the 600 pa pace.

[Thrilho]

 

i'm just saying that if he actually amounts to that (those numbers at the plate and average-ish fielding), he's probably our best longer term 2B once zobrist stops defying age.

 

actually, that player would pretty much be the 4 win zobrist we saw last year.

At "passable" defense I'd want to hear more about the OBP. Zo was a 4.0 win player with a .386 OBP and 18 HRs and -1.5 UZR/150. So if Happ is .270 at the top end of his estimated BA spectrum he'd need to match Zobrist's 15% walk rate for the 4 wins.

 

I know that's taking the Zobrist comp and 4 wins super literally, but on the other hand Javy had the .272 BA and paced for about 19 HRs per 600 PAs with awesome defense. So I could Happ in a time share with Baez and outfield guys, but in my mind he'd have to outpace that 20 HR, come up with a lot of walks, or play better than passable D to overtake Javy.

 

But luckily they both can play multiple positions and can function as a platoon, so I could both as a fit long term.

 

javy's was also heavily dependent on crazy good defense and he was big time protected from tough matchups at the plate, so i wouldn't get too crazy about the 600 pa pace.

Eh I wouldn't get too crazy about the match ups piece. But that's the debate that may or may not get settled this year when Javy may or may not get the extra PAs against righties. Either way, I'm taking Javy's WAR/600 over Happ's for their rookie contracts.

[David]

At "passable" defense I'd want to hear more about the OBP. Zo was a 4.0 win player with a .386 OBP and 18 HRs and -1.5 UZR/150. So if Happ is .270 at the top end of his estimated BA spectrum he'd need to match Zobrist's 15% walk rate for the 4 wins.

 

I know that's taking the Zobrist comp and 4 wins super literally, but on the other hand Javy had the .272 BA and paced for about 19 HRs per 600 PAs with awesome defense. So I could Happ in a time share with Baez and outfield guys, but in my mind he'd have to outpace that 20 HR, come up with a lot of walks, or play better than passable D to overtake Javy.

 

But luckily they both can play multiple positions and can function as a platoon, so I could both as a fit long term.

 

javy's was also heavily dependent on crazy good defense and he was big time protected from tough matchups at the plate, so i wouldn't get too crazy about the 600 pa pace.

Eh I wouldn't get too crazy about the match ups piece. But that's the debate that may or may not get settled this year when Javy may or may not get the extra PAs against righties. Either way, I'm taking Javy's WAR/600 over Happ's for their rookie contracts.

 

i mean, yeah, everyone is. I'm talking about the theoretical Happ that turns out to be what Law is saying he will be. if you actually buy javy as that type of offensive player, then sure, take him over that version of happ, but i don't.

[Thrilho]

Also, for all the caveating of Javy's MLB performance, he was much more productive prospect at the same point in their careers. Happ, playing most of the season at 21, just had 274 PAs in AA with a 111 wRC+ while playing spotty 2B defense. Javy finished 2013 with 240 AA PAs at a 180 wRC+ while playing short at the age of 20. Hit 37 HRs that year to Happ's 15. Javy was BAs # 5 prospect while Happ is coming in usually 50 or lower.

 

So Javy has got his issues, but it seems like a long way to go to assume that Happ will have power and BA equal to Javy while beating the defensive value with walks.

[Thrilho]

 

javy's was also heavily dependent on crazy good defense and he was big time protected from tough matchups at the plate, so i wouldn't get too crazy about the 600 pa pace.

Eh I wouldn't get too crazy about the match ups piece. But that's the debate that may or may not get settled this year when Javy may or may not get the extra PAs against righties. Either way, I'm taking Javy's WAR/600 over Happ's for their rookie contracts.

 

i mean, yeah, everyone is. I'm talking about the theoretical Happ that turns out to be what Law is saying he will be. if you actually buy javy as that type of offensive player, then sure, take him over that version of happ, but i don't.

Got it. So then my last post is captain obvious horsefeathers. If we're saying Happ will turn out to be that player Law says I'm still taking Javy unless Happ has like a 20% walk rate.

[Thrilho]

Btw not for nothin (given Happ's yuge A ball and college walk numbers) but so far Javy's got a better AA walk rate than Happ (7.8% vs 7.2%).

[David]

the recent discussion and my posting of this are completely coincidental. just popped up on my twitter feed.

 

http://www.cubsinsider.com/ian-happs-improved-whiff-rate-means-next/

[CubsWin]

Along with Happ at #3 among 2B, MLB ranks Candelario #5 at 3B.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Keith Law had Eloy at 12.

[David]

Keith Law had Eloy at 12.

 

that seems pretty damn great for as far away as he is.

 

i imagine he'll be top 5 if he goes out and has another good season.

[bukie]

Keith Law had Eloy at 12.

Where was Gleyber?

[Post Count Padder]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

MLB Pipeline releasing their Top 100 tomorrow and Eloy and Happ are among the prospects they're gonna have live-tweeting it.

[Hrubes20]

Keith Law had Eloy at 12.

Where was Gleyber?

 

4 overall

 

Should be noted that he had Moncada at 17.

[David]

Keith Law had Eloy at 12.

 

The Cubs’ 2013 international haul included both Jimenez and Gleyber Torres, both of whom look like potential superstars right now, though Torres is now in the Yankees’ system. If you saw the 2016 Futures Game, you saw what Jimenez can do -- he made one of the greatest catches I’ve ever seen any right fielder make, running all the way to the line and leaping the wall to catch a foul popup. He also hit a home run off the third level of the left-field façade at Petco Park, a distance few big leaguers have reached.

 

Jimenez made his full-season debut last year at age 19 and hit .329/.369/.523, leading the league in slugging by 50 points and finishing 12th in OBP (behind 11 older players), but he wasn’t among the top 50 in strikeouts. Listed at 6-foot-4 and probably bigger than that, Jimenez has a swing that plays shorter. He repeats it very well, getting his hands to the zone quickly from his loaded position with enough loft in his finish to hit line drives and hit for power. If you’re looking to nitpick, he could walk more, but he was the age of a college freshman and just destroyed a full-season league. It’s so nice to see those downtrodden Cubs have some good news on the horizon.

[philosophizer75]

I fully expect Eloy to be AA by some point this season and AAA maybe pushing the majors by late 2018 if he keeps hitting. Seems like a freaking monster.

 

That's just my incredibly uneducated prediction though.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Why in the world are the ceiling fetishists that make prospect lists putting Gleyber Torres in the Top 5?

[Cubswin11]

Why in the world are the ceiling fetishists that make prospect lists putting Gleyber Torres in the Top 5?

Probably because of the he was traded for Aroldis Chapman and the Cubs won the WS, OMG, then he did well in the AFL. Not that I agree with that at all but he seems pretty inflated because of the narrative surrounding him getting him to the Yankees. And of course because Yankees.

[craig]

Torres is a really good prospect. And there is a ton of scouting supporting his high rankings. He's very smooth and polished defensively, and he plays a good SS. By all accounts he looks really smooth as a hitter. His plate discipline now looks to be solid. He showed some solid power. Very much a complete, no-red-flags prospect at a premium defensive position. Terrific prospect.

[craig]

I love Eloy as a prospect, but I wonder if the expectations aren't getting to be too much too fast, and that we might be a little disappointed when he goes to Myrtle and is solid but less-than-great early on. A thinking I always have is that from 19 to 20, a guy can often improve tremendously, so if he was already this good at 19 what might he do at 20. I'm still hoping for that.

 

But I wouldn't be surprised to see his numbers plateau or slip some during the first two months at Myrtle.

1. Cubs have been talking about wanting him to run deeper counts and be more selective. That sounds appropriate for sure, but in my experience often when a guy takes more pitches and puts himself into deeper counts, the K's naturally go up and the power sometimes goes down. (Can't whiff if you resolve counts before 2 strikes, and can't let-it-rip as aggressively with two strikes as you can with none....) So fair chance that trying to work deeper counts and take more walks will happen, and we'll like that; but that the K's will spike significantly in correlation, and the HR's won't.

2. Myrtle is a pitchers park.

3. While some guys do figure a lot out and get more confidence and more successful with a year, plenty others don't. (By all accounts Eloy is already a confident and fairly smart guy. Not clear his confidence or smarts will grow that much...)

4. A lot of guys just take a while to get rolling, and April is often a hitter's worst month, even if the weather isn't that cold.

 

So I'm not going to be very surprised if Eloy comes through May and he's hitting .275 with only 4-6 HR's and a heightened K-rate, and an OPS more in the .750-.850 range than being a >.950-OPS Carolina-League-superstar. Hope I'm just being cautious, and he'll just be awesome in every way, like minor-league Schwarber and Bryant were.

[Tryptamine]

God Law's list was terrible, it's becoming clearer and clearer that's he's joining the the Stephen A Smith and Skip Bayless route of writing/reporting. Besides that, I wouldn't be surprised to see Eloy struggle at A+ this year. He's not a polished product like Schwarber or Bryant were. The only thing that makes him comparable is that they share similar ceilings. With that said, and yes I've said it before, Eloy owns a combination of talents that is just ultra rare in the minors. He has the kind of talents that let you dream of the Cubs adding another game altering bat to the already ridiculous trio of Schwarber, Rizzo and Bryant.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Torres is a really good prospect. And there is a ton of scouting supporting his high rankings. He's very smooth and polished defensively, and he plays a good SS. By all accounts he looks really smooth as a hitter. His plate discipline now looks to be solid. He showed some solid power. Very much a complete, no-red-flags prospect at a premium defensive position. Terrific prospect.

 

He's a very good prospect, but you're basically hoping and praying he becomes Placido Polanco. That's no insult, Polanco was very good for a number of years, but that's not the hopes and dreams of someone in the Top 5 of all of baseball. He's high risk of being a second baseman, he had a .775 OPS at High A, and his K rate is high for someone who isn't going to slug like someone like Russell. You don't even really need something to collapse for Torres to be a non-descript major leaguer, just the attrition of his production at the 2 levels he needs to ascend through would do it.

[SpongeWorthy]

Torres is a really good prospect. And there is a ton of scouting supporting his high rankings. He's very smooth and polished defensively, and he plays a good SS. By all accounts he looks really smooth as a hitter. His plate discipline now looks to be solid. He showed some solid power. Very much a complete, no-red-flags prospect at a premium defensive position. Terrific prospect.

 

He's a very good prospect, but you're basically hoping and praying he becomes Placido Polanco. That's no insult, Polanco was very good for a number of years, but that's not the hopes and dreams of someone in the Top 5 of all of baseball. He's high risk of being a second baseman, he had a .775 OPS at High A, and his K rate is high for someone who isn't going to slug like someone like Russell. You don't even really need something to collapse for Torres to be a non-descript major leaguer, just the attrition of his production at the 2 levels he needs to ascend through would do it.

 

Is Law a ceiling fetishist as you mentioned?

 

Because he's been indicating a very high ceiling on Torres basically ever since finishing up the season (Jeter comparisons, saying he has cornerstone/superstar potential, etc)