Cubs Offseason Top Prospects Lists (BA, BP, Sickels, etc)

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BP's top 10: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=30977

 

The Top Ten

 

OF Eloy Jimenez

2B/OF Ian Happ

OF Albert Almora, Jr.

RHP Trevor Clifton

3B Jeimer Candelario

RHP Jose Albertos

RHP Dylan Cease

RHP Oscar De La Cruz

OF Eddy Julio Martinez

RHP Thomas Hatch

 

Others of note:

 

#11: Mark Zagunis, OF

 

The stand-in: Isaac Paredes, SS

 

Another Cubs approach dude: Donnie Dewees, CF

 

Not eligible for the 25U, but worth a mench here: Jose Rosario, RHP

 

The former future breakout guy: Duane Underwood, RHP

 

Top 10 Talents 25 And Under (born 4/1/91 or later)

 

Kris Bryant

Addison Russell

Kyle Schwarber

​Javier Baez

​Willson Contreras

Eloy Jimenez

Carl Edwards, Jr.

Ian Happ

Albert Almora, Jr.

Trevor Clifton

[David]

so bp doesn't think rookie eligibility = prospect eligibility either?

 

also that last list lmao

[CaliforniaRaisin]

so bp doesn't think rookie eligibility = prospect eligibility either?

 

also that last list lmao

 

Lol. 7 of the Cubs top 10 players under 25 played a crucial role Game 7 of the World Series.

[craig]

John Manuel[/url]"]So that’s helping them dig up gems like Albertos and Isaac Paredes.

 

Given the source and how people seem to love a healthy Albertos tossing in Paredes with him is pretty encouraging. The answer to the question on Paredes is also what I was both expecting and hoping to hear.

 

I was actually maybe a little disappointed with Manuel's answer on Paredes. We've been discussing him for top 10 or at least top 15, but Manuel only mentions ranking him in top 30. Not sure, maybe he's got Paredes 15 and just used the "top 30" to not give anything away. But I thought in past he's been fairly free with "top 15" or "top 20" allusions, and he certainly didn't hesitate to give away that Martinez and Hatch were right outside his existing top-10. Has the usual negative comment about Paredes's SS-aptitude. Still, good actions and hands and coordination are at the heart of good infielding, and being a good hitter who barrels the ball easily is a rare and precious gift, even if without great power.

I like Paredes & ranked him in the top 30. The body is not a classic SS body, but he has SS actions & hands. The lower minors are wide open for him to take advantage of the opportunity in this organization and be the South Bend shortstop in 2017. I think he will be tested there defensively, but I bet he hits. Sounds like he and the barrel of the bat get along well.

[jersey cubs fan]

[craig]

If the disappointing aspect of that comment is something we know (unconventional SS body), the most negative thing he says about Paredes at SS, and that he's system top 30 then I'm fine. I care most about the ability to hit, that's most valuable by far in a prospect, and Manuel is there. From there the difference between a top ten and a top 30 system guy, especially where this system is, is not large and probably even negligible in most.

 

A huge part of why I don't value rankings, especially over words, is that there's this perception that there's some massive difference say between ten and twenty in a system when there isn't. Most likely the same principles from the draft apply here - the first couple are a huge deal then it all kind of melts together for a while. From there that Manuel lumps him with a top ten in Albertos in one moment referring to him as a gem, is confident he can hit in full season ball at 18 next year, and has praise for everything but his body at SS is a bigger deal than the unknown position within the top 30 (which could be anywhere from 11-30 here anyway).

 

Thanks, Tom.

The "unconventional body type" is one thing (which we obviously already knew), but the evaluation that he's not good enough or quick/rangy enough to play good SS is another. Baez has an "unconventional body type" for SS as well; but from very early on scouts who actually watched him play realized that he was really good and projected well at SS. He stood out immediately for his defensive ability. I guess I'm seeing a fairly recurring consensus from sources that while Paredes may stay at SS for a bit, that nobody thinks he's going to be an asset starting defensive SS in the majors, that he doesn't stand out defensively even relative to the short-season collection of infielders in camp, and that people may not even be projecting him as an asset defensive 2B in the majors. So, the impression I'm getting is that he'll likely need to move down to 3B on the defensive spectrum to have a chance to be average or asset defensively. Rather than that he's anywhere close to class with Baez, Russell, or Gleyber defensively.

*Again, perhaps I'm misreading the reports. Or perhaps the reports are uninformed and will prove faulty, and he'll end up being a very smooth, asset defensive 2B.

 

A solid/average defensive 2b with a high-level bat, that's a super valuable guy. And an asset defensive 3B who can really hit and has some power, that's a super valuable guy.

 

I like the Cubs system, but don't think it's especially good. Think there's a difference between being a guy who's slipping into the back end of 30, versus somebody who's a clear top 10, top 15, or even top-20 guy. Somebody who's knocking on the top 10 even if he's not included for now. I've got Paredes at 12 on my list, knocking on the top-10, viewing him as a guy who might be really good and if he holds up to a year in full-season. Manuel made clear that he had Hatch and Martinez knocking on the door; didn't imply that at all for Paredes.

[CubsWin]

From a bat perspective, and somewhat body type as well, Paredes reminds me a bit of Candelario.

 

If Paredes does indeed start and stay at South Bend this year, they will have each skipped a level in their 2nd year in pro ball (Candelario went from the DSL to the NWL). They each have demonstrated good control of the strike zone and hit for average. They each have shown some power at the early stages of their careers with Candelario continuing to grow into his as he got older. They have each been young for their leagues. They each have faced questions whether they can stick at their respective positions (Candelario has since answered he can stick at 3B), and they each have thicker builds.

 

We haven't had a direct age/level comparison yet. Candelario lit up the DSL as a 17-year-old hitting .337/.443/.478 with 50 BB vs. 42 K and 5 HRs. Paredes surprised as a 17-year-old hitting .305/.359/.443 with 13 BB vs. 20 K and 1 HR at a higher level (Arizona Rookie League).

 

As always with prospects, this year will tell us a lot. Candelario lit up the PCL (a hitter friendly league, for sure) much like he did the DSL 5 years earlier hitting .333/.417/.542 with 38 BB vs. 52 K and 9 HRs in almost the exact same number of PAs. But he had a terrible 1st half in AA. If he starts off 2017 like he finished 2016, he'll have answered some lingering questions and will look a lot more MLB ready.

 

If Paredes makes the jump from rookie ball to full season Low-A successfully (and that's no small feat), he'll have answered some lingering questions about belonging in the Cubs top 10 and depending on how well he does, possibly jump into top 100 overall discussions.

 

It'll be fun to see how they converge/diverge going forward.

[Hrubes20]

Fangraphs has their top 23 up:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-23-prospects-chicago-cubs/

 

Albertos keeps creeping higher and higher.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

well, that's interesting...

 

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Eloy-Jimenez-Likelihood-of-Outcomes.png

[philosophizer75]

I'm becoming more and more pleased that we held onto Eloy instead of Gleyber. I doubt if the Yankees actually had their choice between the two though.

 

I'm super excited to see Eloy join this team and demolish everything one day.

[craig]

So that chart basically suggests a 50-50 chance whether Eloy makes 1 WAR.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Fangraphs has their top 23 up:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-23-prospects-chicago-cubs/

 

Albertos keeps creeping higher and higher.

 

Surprising to see Jose Rosario at 10 but I understand the logic.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

So that chart basically suggests a 50-50 chance whether Eloy makes 1 WAR.

 

This doesn't seem that crazy to me given his age and distance from the majors. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm not taking it as any kind of indictment.

[Tryptamine]

I'm becoming more and more pleased that we held onto Eloy instead of Gleyber. I doubt if the Yankees actually had their choice between the two though.

 

I'm super excited to see Eloy join this team and demolish everything one day.

 

Granted I only really started following the minors intensely about 7 or 8 years ago, but right now it is as barren as I have ever seen it for true impact bats. There are plenty of huge power guys like O'Brien or Gallo, but they come with huge K issues or some other huge flaw. In my opinion, you have two true impact bats in the minors right now and that is Cody Bellinger and Eloy Jiminez. BA put a 60Bat and 70power on both of them. There's a world of 20/20 potential down in the minors, but guys who could hit .300 and 30+ bombs? Right now there's just two who are flashing that talent. If Eloy gets moved, which I'm very much starting to doubt, it had better be for a really special talent.

[Cubswin11]

Law ranked us as the 18th best system. Which is probably fairish and the difference between 12-20 isn't all that great so it's kinda semantics where exactly we fall. Here is what he said....

 

You can’t complain, Cubs fans, although some of you will. The front office used the fruits of years of strong drafts and trades to bolster the big league club via promotions and the deal for Aroldis Chapman. The result was a world championship.

 

Even with the trade of Gleyber Torres, the Cubs still have a very high-end hitting prospect in teenager Eloy Jimenez -- the guy who hit a ball in the Futures Game that bounced off the third story of the left field façade at Petco Park -- and some midlevel starting pitching depth coming, with one potential ace if the guy can just stay healthy.

 

Between the trades, promotions, and lack of a Day 1 draft pick in 2016, this is a thinner system than it was a year ago. It will probably stay down for a while now that the team is in full-throttle contention mode.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

You can’t complain, Cubs fans, although some of you will.

 

You get the audience you ask for, I guess.

 

The Fangraphs list was a very good read. Interesting that he was especially bullish on Candelario's bat and especially bearish on his defense, and that description of Eloy's bat is drool-worthy. Rosario at #10 is proof positive that it's basically ignoring anything that isn't a scouting perspective, but it's still fine if you understand that lens.

[craig]

I love these lists, and the snapshots they give of different people's opinions and insights. Where is there some consensus among observers? While I sometimes look for consensus, it's also a reminder that there can be widely varient opinions about gys.

 

I'm less confident in the insight of the BP scouting. The "scout" who ranked Clifton #4 did so apparently without having seen him enough, or to have talked to enough actual scouts who had, to know that Clifton is tall and well built. Instead he wrote his original evaluation thinking that Clifton is undersized, based on the inaccurate 6'1" 170 listing on some websites. If guy has seen Clifton so little that he thinks Clifton's built like Greg Maddux, how can I assume the scout has seen Clifton's change and breaking pitch enough to scout them accurately? And if he hasn't actually seen or gotten very informed on a guy he ranked #4, should I assume he's spent a lot more time on guys 5-and-higher?

 

One of the other thoughts with these rankings is that sometimes the authors are kind of regional. Maybe live Atlantic area, so will have actually seen Carolina Leaguers several times; but maybe haven't actually seen Midwest League or California League guys? So sometimes their insights into some prospects is much more first-hand than with others, for better or for worse.

 

Cubs obviously don't publish their internal evals. But I think about how Cubs have at least 20+ guys in their scouting network, and their internal group is spending a lot of time self-scouting. So I'd normally assume that *IF* there is a difference in evaluation of a Cubs prospect between what the Cubs think and what the internet raters think, the Cubs internal consensus is probably much better informed, and probably reflects a consensus built from a much larger number of evaluators. Unfortunately we don't have access to what the Cubs honest internal assessments or rankings ever are. If we did, it would be fascinating.

[CubsWin]

I love these lists, and the snapshots they give of different people's opinions and insights. Where is there some consensus among observers? While I sometimes look for consensus, it's also a reminder that there can be widely varient opinions about gys.

Me too, craig. It's always fun to see the differing opinions. It would be really boring if everyone agreed.

 

I'm less confident in the insight of the BP scouting. The "scout" who ranked Clifton #4 did so apparently without having seen him enough, or to have talked to enough actual scouts who had, to know that Clifton is tall and well built. Instead he wrote his original evaluation thinking that Clifton is undersized, based on the inaccurate 6'1" 170 listing on some websites. If guy has seen Clifton so little that he thinks Clifton's built like Greg Maddux, how can I assume the scout has seen Clifton's change and breaking pitch enough to scout them accurately? And if he hasn't actually seen or gotten very informed on a guy he ranked #4, should I assume he's spent a lot more time on guys 5-and-higher?

He made the correction on his size eventually, but it does show a lack of familiarity. BP in general doesn't do as good of a job as other sites, in my opinion. For instance, listening to the Pelicans games in the 2nd half, watching the video recaps they do and reading up, it was well documented that Clifton's change up was a big reason why he improved this year. This guy wasn't even aware of that. It's got to be really difficult to write up lists on all the different prospects throughout 30 teams, so I can understand missing some vital info, but this is his job.

 

Cubs obviously don't publish their internal evals. But I think about how Cubs have at least 20+ guys in their scouting network, and their internal group is spending a lot of time self-scouting. So I'd normally assume that *IF* there is a difference in evaluation of a Cubs prospect between what the Cubs think and what the internet raters think, the Cubs internal consensus is probably much better informed, and probably reflects a consensus built from a much larger number of evaluators. Unfortunately we don't have access to what the Cubs honest internal assessments or rankings ever are. If we did, it would be fascinating.

Maybe we can get the Russians or the Cardinals to hack into it for us. I'd love to read it!

[Cubswin11]

Law is starting his top 100 today, did 100-81. Cease was the only Cub so far at 86, here's the write up....

 

Cease has one of the biggest fastballs in pro baseball, possibly hitting 103 mph this summer and definitely hitting 101, but his arm is so quick that his body has a hard time catching up.

 

He was likely to be a top 10 pick in 2014, but he hurt his elbow in mid-March, didn’t pitch again before the draft and had Tommy John surgery after signing an over-slot deal with the Cubs after getting picked in the sixth round that year. He returned in 2015 for 24 innings, then was supposed to pitch a full summer in short-season in 2016 but missed time again with some minor soreness.

 

Cease has shown a plus breaking ball and would be fine pitching at 96-99 without trying to hit triple digits. He also has the athleticism and overall repertoire to start if he can stay healthy. This will be a big year for him in building stamina and learning to dial it down enough so that he can command the fastball better and, of course, stay off the DL. He has No. 1 starter stuff with the physique to match.

[SpongeWorthy]

I see that klaw still gets in inane fights with random people on twitter

[treebird]

I see that klaw still gets in inane fights with random people on twitter

 

in his defense, that rando was REALLY overrating candyland

[Hrubes20]

Law is starting his top 100 today, did 100-81. Cease was the only Cub so far at 86, here's the write up....

 

Cease has one of the biggest fastballs in pro baseball, possibly hitting 103 mph this summer and definitely hitting 101, but his arm is so quick that his body has a hard time catching up.

 

He was likely to be a top 10 pick in 2014, but he hurt his elbow in mid-March, didn’t pitch again before the draft and had Tommy John surgery after signing an over-slot deal with the Cubs after getting picked in the sixth round that year. He returned in 2015 for 24 innings, then was supposed to pitch a full summer in short-season in 2016 but missed time again with some minor soreness.

 

Cease has shown a plus breaking ball and would be fine pitching at 96-99 without trying to hit triple digits. He also has the athleticism and overall repertoire to start if he can stay healthy. This will be a big year for him in building stamina and learning to dial it down enough so that he can command the fastball better and, of course, stay off the DL. He has No. 1 starter stuff with the physique to match.

 

I don't have the write up, but he has Happ at 63 today.

[KingCubsFan]

Law is starting his top 100 today, did 100-81. Cease was the only Cub so far at 86, here's the write up....

 

Cease has one of the biggest fastballs in pro baseball, possibly hitting 103 mph this summer and definitely hitting 101, but his arm is so quick that his body has a hard time catching up.

 

He was likely to be a top 10 pick in 2014, but he hurt his elbow in mid-March, didn’t pitch again before the draft and had Tommy John surgery after signing an over-slot deal with the Cubs after getting picked in the sixth round that year. He returned in 2015 for 24 innings, then was supposed to pitch a full summer in short-season in 2016 but missed time again with some minor soreness.

 

Cease has shown a plus breaking ball and would be fine pitching at 96-99 without trying to hit triple digits. He also has the athleticism and overall repertoire to start if he can stay healthy. This will be a big year for him in building stamina and learning to dial it down enough so that he can command the fastball better and, of course, stay off the DL. He has No. 1 starter stuff with the physique to match.

 

I don't have the write up, but he has Happ at 63 today.

He sees him as a guy with a solid OBP, 20 homers a year and .260-.270. So good enough to start on most teams, just not our infield.

[David]

Law is starting his top 100 today, did 100-81. Cease was the only Cub so far at 86, here's the write up....

 

 

I don't have the write up, but he has Happ at 63 today.

He sees him as a guy with a solid OBP, 20 homers a year and .260-.270. So good enough to start on most teams, just not our infield.

 

sounds like the type of player who could start at 2B for us if the defense is passable.

[Cubswin11]

Here's the write up on Happ

 

Andrew Benintendi went one pick ahead of the Cubs’ first-round selection in 2015, which meant the Cubs ended up with Happ, who might not quite be the best prospect in baseball but is a valuable trade piece for a team with no room at (sic) the infield.

 

Happ is a switch-hitter, but his left-handed swing is much better than his right, with a cleaner, more consistent path and better loft in his finish. He might never provide more than fringe-average defense at second base, but Happ can offer positional flexibility, with experience in center, in right and at first or even as a “stand at shortstop for a few innings” option.

 

With the Cubs’ roster already overflowing with position players, Happ should get all of 2017 to work on improving his contact rate and repeating his right-handed swing. I think he ends up a multi-position guy or everyday second baseman with solid OBPs and 20 homers a year but probably enough strikeouts to keep his average down in the .260-270 range.

 

I'd be plenty happy if Happ turns into a version of Jason Kipnis if that is what Law sees as his offensive potential.