Cubs Offseason Top Prospects Lists (BA, BP, Sickels, etc)

[craig]

I think the picture for Torres is basically a better-hitting Addison Russell. An Addison-Russell shortstop who could hit .275, that's better than most top-5 prospects achieve. But whatever, he's not our guy anymore so doesn't matter. Certainly it's also possible that he'll end up being only average at SS and perhaps function as a high-end defensive 2B if his team has a higher-end SS, and that he'll end up hitting .255 with 10-12 HR, and not be that good.

 

But Eloy's the guy we've got. So lets hope he's the guy who becomes a really good hitter with monster power. Heh heh, maybe he could basically becomes Kris bryant with less K's! :)

[Bobson Dugnutt]

A better hitting Russell? The power and defense must have really taken off in the Yankees system if that's how he's being looked at now.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

There's still more than a few evaluators that see Torres as a future 2B, any comparison between him and Russell starts with him way in the hole on defense alone. He also doesn't have Russell's power, makes only a smidge more contact, and doesn't hit for a better average than Russell.

[imb]

Torres is a really good prospect. And there is a ton of scouting supporting his high rankings. He's very smooth and polished defensively, and he plays a good SS. By all accounts he looks really smooth as a hitter. His plate discipline now looks to be solid. He showed some solid power. Very much a complete, no-red-flags prospect at a premium defensive position. Terrific prospect.

 

He's a very good prospect, but you're basically hoping and praying he becomes Placido Polanco. That's no insult, Polanco was very good for a number of years, but that's not the hopes and dreams of someone in the Top 5 of all of baseball. He's high risk of being a second baseman, he had a .775 OPS at High A, and his K rate is high for someone who isn't going to slug like someone like Russell. You don't even really need something to collapse for Torres to be a non-descript major leaguer, just the attrition of his production at the 2 levels he needs to ascend through would do it.

 

When you call someone a top-5 prospect, you're not implying they could or will one day be a top-5 player in the league.

 

I think Law is going off a little recency bias, because Torres tore up the AFL right after a pretty disappointing 30 games for the yankees A+ team. Also I do think there's a little bit of "I can generate happy responses from yankees fans and pissed off responses from cubs fans."

[davell]

Torres is an excellent prospect. Is he top 5? Top 10? Definitely possible. Its a weaker top end than it has been. Swanson is ranked this high.....I honestly see more upside with Torres. Even if Swanson still has a much higher floor(though Torres' is relatively high now, for his age)

 

Weaker group of prospects, maybe a bit of "Holy horsefeathers, we can actually say good things about the Yankees", I can see why he's this high.

 

I'm pretty sure Starlin was a top 15-20 guy, at the same point. And I think Torres is a better prospect than he was. So its relatively in line for me.

[David]

Torres is a really good prospect. And there is a ton of scouting supporting his high rankings. He's very smooth and polished defensively, and he plays a good SS. By all accounts he looks really smooth as a hitter. His plate discipline now looks to be solid. He showed some solid power. Very much a complete, no-red-flags prospect at a premium defensive position. Terrific prospect.

 

He's a very good prospect, but you're basically hoping and praying he becomes Placido Polanco. That's no insult, Polanco was very good for a number of years, but that's not the hopes and dreams of someone in the Top 5 of all of baseball. He's high risk of being a second baseman, he had a .775 OPS at High A, and his K rate is high for someone who isn't going to slug like someone like Russell. You don't even really need something to collapse for Torres to be a non-descript major leaguer, just the attrition of his production at the 2 levels he needs to ascend through would do it.

 

When you call someone a top-5 prospect, you're not implying they could or will one day be a top-5 player in the league.

 

I think Law is going off a little recency bias, because Torres tore up the AFL right after a pretty disappointing 30 games for the yankees A+ team. Also I do think there's a little bit of "I can generate happy responses from yankees fans and pissed off responses from cubs fans."

 

I don't think his wording really implies that. Just the hopes and dreams of a top 5 prospect (in all of baseball).

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm pretty sure Starlin was a top 15-20 guy, at the same point. And I think Torres is a better prospect than he was. So its relatively in line for me.

 

Castro had a carrying hit tool, while Torres doesn't really standout anywhere. He doesn't make a ton of contact, hit for a high average, show tremendous plate discipline, hit for significant power, or play terrific defense. Castro's peak as a prospect also came after he hit .367/.413/.560 in AA and got promoted to Chicago.

 

When you call someone a top-5 prospect, you're not implying they could or will one day be a top-5 player in the league.

 

I think Law is going off a little recency bias, because Torres tore up the AFL right after a pretty disappointing 30 games for the yankees A+ team. Also I do think there's a little bit of "I can generate happy responses from yankees fans and pissed off responses from cubs fans."

 

I don't think his wording really implies that. Just the hopes and dreams of a top 5 prospect (in all of baseball).

 

Correct, there's a significant gap between one of the top 5 players in baseball and a guy who is not likely to be one of the 5 best players on a good team. Top 5 prospects in baseball shouldn't be the latter.

[imb]

The top 10 prospects are so down compared to recent years that I can't really fault them for putting gleyber up so high.

[CubsWin]

So, just to recap what's come out in the last few days...

 

MLB's top 100:

 

#14 Eloy Jimenez

#28 Ian Happ

#75 Albert Almora

#77 Dylan Cease

#96 Jeimer Candelario

 

ZiPS top 100:

 

#36 Eloy Jimenez

#55 Ian Happ

#59 Dylan Cease

#66 Jeimer Candelario

#95 Vic Caratini

 

Keith Law's top 100

 

#12 Eloy Jimenez

#63 Ian Happ

#86 Dylan Cease

[CubsWin]

Keith Law's Cubs top 17:

 

1. Eloy Jimenez, OF (Ranked No. 12)

2. Ian Happ, 2B (Ranked No. 63)

3. Dylan Cease, RHP (Ranked No. 86)

4. Albert Almora, OF

5. Oscar de la Cruz, RHP

6. Trevor Clifton, RHP

7. Jeimer Candelario, 3B

8. Eddy Julio Martinez, OF

9. Thomas Hatch, RHP

10. Jose Albertos, RHP

11. Carlos Sepulveda, 2B

12. Victor Caratini, C

13. DJ Wilson, OF

14. Mark Zagunis, OF

15. Donnie Dewees, OF

16. Chesny Young, INF

17. Isaac Paredes, 2B-3B

 

Albert Almora is a soft 50 for me, a borderline big league regular, thanks to his defense, or a great extra outfielder because he’ll put the ball in play a lot and can handle all three outfield spots. He has never walked much and isn’t going to have more than fringy power, which makes regular duty anywhere but center unlikely, but I think he’ll have a few years as someone’s everyday guy there, even if that isn't with the Cubs.

 

Oscar de la Cruz missed a large chunk of 2016 with elbow soreness but came back reasonably strong, throwing 93-95 mph. He shows a plus curveball and changeup, and he overpowered low minors hitters last year in 38 innings across three levels.

 

Trevor Clifton got an over-slot deal after getting picked in the 12th round in 2013, and he has made steady progress each year since. He throws 90-94 mph and a true curveball with some deception in his delivery that helps him get away with the lack of life on the fastball. He’s a high-probability fourth or fifth starter.

 

Jeimer Candelario has exceptional timing at the plate and puts the bat on the ball as well as anyone in the high minors. He makes a lot of hard contact without much present or projected power. The Cubs think he’s an above-average defender at third, but he hasn't been when I’ve seen him, and I get a broad range of opinions on his defense from scouts.

 

The Cubs signed Eddy Julio Martinez for $3 million as a free agent from Cuba in October 2015, but his pro debut last year was a little disappointing, as the balanced, all-fields approach he showed in workouts and still has in BP became a rotational, pull-oriented approach in games. He isn't that type of hitter. I don’t think there are 20 homers in here, but he has the bat speed and hand-eye to hit for a high average with lots of doubles.

 

Thomas Hatch was the team’s first pick in 2016, coming in the third round after they gave up two picks to sign Jason Heyward and John Lackey. He’s a power sinker guy, throwing 92-94 mph as a starter and 94-96 in instructs during shorter stints, with an above-average slider and average change. He slipped to the third round in part because he missed 2015 with a UCL sprain that never required surgery.

 

The Mexican-born Jose Albertos made one appearance in 2016, throwing four innings, after which the Cubs shut him down without further explanation. He was 94-97 mph with a plus changeup that day, and he threw strikes, and then suddenly he had a "sore forearm." But the story around Arizona is that he wasn’t really hurt. Needless to say, I’ve never laid eyes on him; all I know is that the scouts I talked to who saw him said he was electric.

 

Second baseman Carlos Sepulveda (11) is undersized but has great hands and has hit all kinds of pitching so far. He might not end up with much power, but he has a good enough eye at the plate that he could end up a high average/OBP regular at the position.

 

Victor Caratini (12) is a switch-hitter with a patient approach, but he hasn’t developed the power commensurate with his size. He has caught and played third and first base. He isn’t great at any of them due to his arm strength, but he could work as a multi-function bench bat.

 

D.J. (Darryl) Wilson (13) hurt an oblique muscle out of spring training and never got his bat going all summer. He’s a quick-twitch athlete with the speed to add value in center and on the bases, but first he has to hit.

 

Outfielder Mark Zagunis (14) has a strong history of getting on base and might end up a below-average regular in left on the strength of his OBP, but he has shown little power through his age-23 season and probably won’t be any more than that.

 

Donnie Dewees (15) has the speed to play center and steal 30-40 bases a year, but he has so little power that he probably isn't a regular and legitimately has a 20 arm that limits him to left. (I asked one scout how Dewees got four assists in 2016, and he said, “Because everybody runs on him!”)

 

Infielder Chesny Young (16) quintupled his career home run total in 2016 -- he came into the year with one -- and hit over .300 at each of his three stops last season. Players with this little power have it tough because pitchers have no reason to not just challenge them. He can play a handful of spots but fits best at second base.

 

Isaac Paredes (17) won’t stay at shortstop but can hit and might have some power in the end. The Mexican-born infielder won’t turn 18 until late February but had a very strong AZL season last year.

[craig]

Thanks for Law comments, Win. Interesting that he like's Candelario's hitting that much. More surprising is that he views Clifton as a "high probability" 4th or 5th starter. To be able to crack and stick in a major-league rotation is pretty difficult. Hopefully Law is correct on that assessments. Most surprising is the Sepulveda, and the positive comment about his "great hands". I'd wondered if he was a bad fielder. A contact guy with great hands has a much easier time hanging around as a utility guy.

[davell]

Law and Longenhagen have history together, but its cool that each of them today said they think De La Cruz has a good shot at breaking out. And that the Cubs may have held Albertos back because they didn't want teams clamoring for him at the deadline.

 

Longenhagen mentioned he heard Bailey Clark made some changes that could allow for him to advance as a starter too.

 

We're going to be pitching-heavy in prospects moving forward.

[Regular Show]

Law and Longenhagen have history together, but its cool that each of them today said they think De La Cruz has a good shot at breaking out. And that the Cubs may have held Albertos back because they didn't want teams clamoring for him at the deadline.

 

Longenhagen mentioned he heard Bailey Clark made some changes that could allow for him to advance as a starter too.

 

We're going to be pitching-heavy in prospects moving forward.

 

Is that what he meant, in regards to J. Albertos? I was so confused by that statement/speculation... I interpreted it as "something to do w/ off-field matters" or possible fight w/ teammate. I mean why would you hide someone that thoroughly? I mean just cause teams are interested in him doesn't mean you have to include him in trade talks. Strange. I guess it's good news that the injury isn't considered too serious...

[davell]

Yeah, they were implying that we didn't want teams fixating on trying to trade for him.

 

It makes sense. The Yankees were evidently stuck on Schwarber being part of a Miller deal. Meanwhile, they accepted Frazier and Sheffield, with spare parts, for him from the Indians.....I'd figure Torres plus(Cease, Clifton, or De La Cruz) would have basically been in the same realm.....But they may have told us there was no chance on Miller, without Schwarber.

 

The way teams view trading fascinates me and we obviously don't know what they ask for, but I'd like to think we tried hard on Miller, considering what it took for him.

 

Just an example of why keeping Albertos a secret, making trades a bit less complicated, seems very plausible.

[CubsWin]

Law and Longenhagen have history together, but its cool that each of them today said they think De La Cruz has a good shot at breaking out. And that the Cubs may have held Albertos back because they didn't want teams clamoring for him at the deadline.

 

Longenhagen mentioned he heard Bailey Clark made some changes that could allow for him to advance as a starter too.

 

We're going to be pitching-heavy in prospects moving forward.

It will be interesting to see who the Cubs take with the 27th and 30th picks in this year's draft. The list of decent pitching prospects could get even longer. Cease, De La Cruz, Clifton, Hatch, Albertos and Clark are good start. The Cubs have been so good at scouting and developing position players over the last 5 years that my belief in hitting prospects actually progressing year to year has never been higher.

 

But the arms have been a different story. The biggest success stories so far have been Trevor Clifton and Ryan Williams with a lot more disappointments. De La Cruz, Cease and Albertos have the ability to develop well beyond those two. This year will tell us a lot about the type of pitching talent the Cubs currently have and their ability as an organization to develop them.

 

Longenhagen also mentioned Mekkes as the Cubs best "sleeper" prospect from last year's draft albeit as a reliever. Taken in the 10th round instead of the 3rd (Hatch) or 5th (Clark) probably better qualifies Mekkes as a sleeper than the other two.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Law and Longenhagen have history together, but its cool that each of them today said they think De La Cruz has a good shot at breaking out. And that the Cubs may have held Albertos back because they didn't want teams clamoring for him at the deadline.

 

Longenhagen mentioned he heard Bailey Clark made some changes that could allow for him to advance as a starter too.

 

We're going to be pitching-heavy in prospects moving forward.

 

Is that what he meant, in regards to J. Albertos? I was so confused by that statement/speculation... I interpreted it as "something to do w/ off-field matters" or possible fight w/ teammate. I mean why would you hide someone that thoroughly? I mean just cause teams are interested in him doesn't mean you have to include him in trade talks. Strange. I guess it's good news that the injury isn't considered too serious...

 

Fangraphs hinted at this as well.

 

A lot of scouts/executives with whom I’ve spoken have either seen Albertos or know quite a bit about how he looked this year. In fact, for an arm who threw just four stateside innings this year, the consistency with which I was able to farm opinions on Albertos is somewhat suspicious — and perhaps a sign that clubs were chasing him near the mid-summer trade deadline.

 

...

 

The obvious ones are those blocked by superior talents (some of the generational variety) in the majors, but the Cubs can’t hide Jose Albertos in the complex forever and I expect him to be pursued as well.

[craig]

Thanks Tom. That there are even mixed opinions regarding the SS/move question is encouraging.

 

Will be interesting to see how the hitting actually goes this summer, assuming he's full season. And if there emerges any hint of HR-power.

[philosophizer75]

So I live in Frederick, MD, which is where the Orioles' A+ team plays. I can get a ticket package deal where I pick and choose 10 home games to go see. Realistically, I'm mostly interested in seeing Eloy when the MB Pelicans are in town, which happens 10 times this season. Is it worth it to get the 10 ticket package, or is Eloy gonna be moving on to AA by mid-season? It's not really that pricey, I just know I probably won't have as much interest if Eloy isn't gonna be there to go see.

 

Thoughts?

[David]

So I live in Frederick, MD, which is where the Orioles' A+ team plays. I can get a ticket package deal where I pick and choose 10 home games to go see. Realistically, I'm mostly interested in seeing Eloy when the MB Pelicans are in town, which happens 10 times this season. Is it worth it to get the 10 ticket package, or is Eloy gonna be moving on to AA by mid-season? It's not really that pricey, I just know I probably won't have as much interest if Eloy isn't gonna be there to go see.

 

Thoughts?

 

What are you calling mid-season?

 

If he kills it again, I don't think they'll hesitate to push him to AA, but I don't think that'd be before mid July or something.

[Cubswin11]

So I live in Frederick, MD, which is where the Orioles' A+ team plays. I can get a ticket package deal where I pick and choose 10 home games to go see. Realistically, I'm mostly interested in seeing Eloy when the MB Pelicans are in town, which happens 10 times this season. Is it worth it to get the 10 ticket package, or is Eloy gonna be moving on to AA by mid-season? It's not really that pricey, I just know I probably won't have as much interest if Eloy isn't gonna be there to go see.

 

Thoughts?

Why not just wait until the day/week of games to make sure he's there and/or playing? I'm sure some of those 10 games he won't be playing/promoted. Save on spending for 10 games you probably won't all want to go to and maybe get nicer tickets for the fewer times you go would be my advice.

[philosophizer75]

Good point, I'll probably do that. Thanks.

[Hrubes20]

Not the Cubs list per se, but the BP top 101 has the following:

 

9. Eloy

54. Happ

77. Almora

87. CLIFTON

 

Gleyber was 15, fwiw.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Jimenez at 9 is interesting. What did they say?

"he's 9th"

[Hrubes20]

Jimenez at 9 is interesting. What did they say?

 

No idea, unfortunately. I was just given the top 101. None of it has been published online yet.

[davell]

BA has Cease at 97, Almora at 64, Happ at 63, and Eloy at 14.