2016 Trade Deadline

[Tim]

I understand it is only words, but didn't Theo come out and say that they won't be trading major league assets to improve the team at the deadline?

[Sammy Sofa]

I understand it is only words, but didn't Theo come out and say that they won't be trading major league assets to improve the team at the deadline?

 

Yeah, but how does that apply to Baez?

 

[davell]

I understand it is only words, but didn't Theo come out and say that they won't be trading major league assets to improve the team at the deadline?

 

He's said something like that. He's also said having a multi position guy, like Javy, is invaluable. Schwarber isn't going anywhere. They've given no indication on Soler either. But I think he's easily the expendable one, if they do. He probably needs to be back playing before we'll be able to deal him though.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Reddick on this team is better for the season's output than the player he'd be replacing, but then you start getting into the opportunity cost. The player cost to get Reddick, the literal player you have to DFA(Coghlan, Szczur, TLS?) or demote(Almora, Baez? Contreras?) to fit him on the roster, the lost MLB plate appearances for future development(Almora, Baez, Contreras, Soler). I don't think the most likely outcome for any one of the individuals is Reddick(aside from maybe Contreras), but I do think the most likely outcome for the group for this season is Reddick or better.

 

I'd also add this is why you pay Joe Maddon 5 million dollars a year, to optimize playing time to get results so you get the best of all worlds(production, player development, and preserved trade assets).

 

From my POV that does not seem like much of an opportunity cost - most definitely not having to DFA a Coghlan or Szczur. They're not demoting Contreras as he's the one guy on that list with an outstanding bat backed by periphs - all that other stuff is noise in the way of the ultimate goal in getting that first WS out of the way. Maddon still gets to do what he does with a Reddick or Gonzalez (who I prefer thanks to an extra YOC) on the roster, just it's a better roster with more of an emphasis on winning than PD for a little bit.

 

"Noise in the way of the ultimate goal in getting that first WS out of the way" is logic that can be applied to almost literally anything, it's as uncompelling in that direction as you find the argument that adding Reddick would stunt the development of Baez/Almora/Contreras/Soler.

 

Cubs LF have been quite good on the whole this year, even if you swap Bryant for his 3B replacements they're still on the other side of a .750 OPS. They have multiple Top 25 prospects in Contreras and Baez who are doing just fine in filling in that hole. If they aren't a good matchup or are filling in elsewhere they have La Stella and Almora who make for a solid platoon themselves. And they have another platoon of options behind them in Coghlan and Szczur. AND they have Soler, a top prospect in his own right, coming back from injury soon. He's got a .263/.355/.452 line in his last 300 MLB PAs. Plus, if you hate all of those guys, Schwarber is around next year to further disincent anything but a rental.

 

There's way too many options and future implications for a marginal upgrade to be worthwhile here. I feel like the same logic that got applied to some of the trade negotiations for pitchers applies here. The Cubs didn't go out on a limb to draft Schwarber and then see how successful he's been just to trade him for a reliever when he got hurt. Similarly, the Cubs didn't stock up on bats for all these years just to block them when they're playing well at the MLB level to get a potential incremental improvement.

[squally1313]

The only way I can justify giving up anything of value for an offensive player not in the Stanton range is if it gets to the point where we think our chances of making the playoffs is in doubt, and therefore an incremental improvement could add value over 60-70 games. Otherwise we're talking about 15-20 games. I don't think we're there yet, and neither does Fangraphs or I'd assume any of the advanced projections that have taken into account what we've done over the last 90 games (and last year, etc).

 

If they want to add a starter to protect against injury, or add a frontline starter to take game 3 or 4 and stick around for a while...absolutely. The dropoff from our five starters to anyone in the minors is steep. Same thing for a top bullpen arm, as those (maybe just anecdotally) seem to play a bigger role in the playoffs and I think that area is a genuine concern going forward. But the offense has been elite, and there's no reason to think it won't remain that way.

 

As a side note, is there any chance that if Contreras keeps doing what he's doing for another 6 weeks or so that we just DFA Montero and eat the contract? That extra roster spot could be big in determining trades and figuring out the playoff roster.

[davell]

So, here's a list of Starting Pitchers I could see being available......Preferences? Keep in mind acquisition cost, though.....

 

Eovaldi- NYY

1 of Archer, Odorizzi, Smyly, or Moore.....Plus Cobb.-TB

1 of Nolasco or Santana. Maybe Kyle Gibson.-Minn

Shoemaker-LAA

Maybe Walker or Paxton-Sea

Gray, Hill-Oak

Chatwood or Bettis-Col

Bradley-Ariz

Pomeranz-SD

Hellickson-Phil

Teheran-ATL

 

Chances of being dealt(absolutely accurate obviously)

 

Eovaldi-50%

Archer-10%

Moore-30%

Odorizzi-35%

Smyly-25%

Cobb-50%

Nolasco-40%

Santana-50%

Gibson-25%

Shoemaker-40%

Walker-10%

Paxton-20%

Gray-40%

Hill-90%

Chatwood-30%

Bettis-30%

Bradley-20%

Pomeranz-60%

Hellickson-75%

Teheran-20%

 

Eovaldi is easy for the Yanks to move. Tampa will definitely move a guy, maybe 2. God, Minnesota sucks. I'm sure Nolasco and Santana will be available. No idea if anyone wants them. Shoemaker is decent, the Angels are a wild card, my gut says he'll stay put. Gray needs to pitch well in order to regain the value needed to move him. Hill is gone, if healthy. If Seattle falls out of contention, I could see them dealing Paxton or Walker, maybe for ML guys. Soler involved maybe? Colorado needs pitching, but I could see them moving a decent arm, just not Gray. Stewart isn't a huge Bradley fan, I could see them moving him. Hellickson will get dealt. I don't see Atlanta moving Teheran for a multitude of reasons.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I would be shocked and disappointed if we dealt Baez. His upside is huge, and he has been a solid, regular contributor this season. The rest of that list I could see.

context-wise, he's been kind of lousy

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=3&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=17&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&page=1_50

 

I don't believe net WPA includes either a position adjustment or any accounting of defensive value.

[Post Count Padder]

Will Smith from the Brewers could be a good option. Solid numbers and peripherals. Likely won't require the same package for Andrew Miller.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

You keep writing a number of guys off as lesser/unworthy players, and I think that ignores both the way that Maddon likes to manage(which is also where MLB is trending), and brings back up that Reddick isn't a terrific player so the bar isn't high. The days of having 8 set starters who you'd like to play for 150 games are going the way of the starting running back in the NFL. Having a variety of players to cover a spot is a strength more than a weakness, so long as they aren't in the Kawasaki/Herrera pile of getting playing time by default. Szczur is not a first division starter by any means, but he's got a near .300 IsoP against LHP this year and can play a capable LF. Almora is an all world defender and 6 of his 8 hits against LHP are XBH. La Stella and Baez are infielders, but that distinction doesn't matter much when Bryant can move from 3rd to LF to RF with ease. Contreras isn't a 150 game left fielder, but he's got a great bat(and no platoon split thus far) and is guaranteed not to be catching at least 40% of the time. Just because it's not a singular person getting you to the outcome doesn't necessarily mean that option is less optimal or reliable.

 

But hey, forget all the other guys for whatever reason(not good/not outfielders), here's ROS ZiPS:

 

Soler: .253/.327/.438, .328 wOBA

Reddick: .266/.332/.431, .327 wOBA

 

I think once Soler gets back you're going to see him get the bulk of the playing time in LF as long as the bat is there, with Almora as a defensive replacement and Contreras filling in on particularly bad matchups(e.g. high K RHP). Baez and La Stella will play less, but I also anticipate more off days for the infield as the season wears on too.

[sneakypower]

I would be shocked and disappointed if we dealt Baez. His upside is huge, and he has been a solid, regular contributor this season. The rest of that list I could see.

context-wise, he's been kind of lousy

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=3&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=17&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&page=1_50

 

I don't believe net WPA includes either a position adjustment or any accounting of defensive value.

true, but it better accounts for him [expletive] his pants whenever faced with any kind of runners-on-base situation

 

his defensive value isn't really anything to sing praises for though

[sneakypower]

Smyly's 12th in MLB for K-BB%; figure out how to reduce HR-charity (ditch cutter?) and you've got a stew

[sneakypower]

- There's a legit shot Soler does not even get past the trade deadline, but what about the ROS ZiPs for Carlos Gonzalez? .290/.345/.538 with a .370 wOBA.

park adjusted, that's about 115 wRC+, more in line with .800 OPS in Cubs hitting environment fwiw

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I can see the argument for CarGo more than someone like Reddick, because that is a true and meaningful upgrade. It's still not what I'd probably do given CarGo's age/injury history/contract/asking price, and it's worth noting that his ZiPS ROS wRC+ is *only* 114(105 for Reddick and 102 for Soler), and I'm not sure the FO would be over the moon about Schwarber/Heyward/CarGo as a future defensive OF, but I get the appeal.

[squally1313]

Just as you probably have to bump up Reddick's ROS projections for getting out of Oakland, you have to significantly discount CarGo's numbers for leaving Colorado.

 

Thankfully (for the purposes of this exercise only) they all suck at defense, so nothing to really compare there.

 

Edit: Only about 4 posts late, so perfect timing.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

context-wise, he's been kind of lousy

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=3&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=17&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&page=1_50

 

I don't believe net WPA includes either a position adjustment or any accounting of defensive value.

true, but it better accounts for him [expletive] his pants whenever faced with any kind of runners-on-base situation

 

his defensive value isn't really anything to sing praises for though

 

How so? He's had positive defensive value in both of the last two years, before even factoring in a positional adjustment, while playing several positions near the top of the defensive spectrum.

[USSoccer]

Trading Javy Baez would be a really dumb decision. Excellent defensive,cost-controlled versatile players with that much upside and power don't grow on trees.

[apete6]

What's everyone's rankings on "tradeability" of our young guys/prospects?

 

Here are mine from "almost hell no" to OK. I'm excluding Russell, Bryant, and Rizzo for obvious reasons.

 

Tier 1

Contreras

Torres

Schwarber--NL DH would move him to the top of the list

Baez

Jimenez

 

Tier 2

Cease

Almora--could be higher due to his obvious fit as our CF after Fowler leaves

Happ

McKinney

Jeimer

 

Everyone else in the system is basically just a guy to me in terms of trades.

[cubfro]

I would go

 

Tier 1 = only will trade for a young cost controlled starter w/ ace potential or Trout

 

Schwarber

Baez

Contreras

Hendrix

 

Tier 2

Almora

Happ

Soler

Jimmenez

Torres

Carantini

Cease

[imb]

i wouldn't trade contreras for trout

[Ding Dong Johnson]

i wouldn't trade contreras for trout

Shirley, you can't be serious

[sneakypower]

i wouldn't trade contreras for trout

http://i.imgur.com/Iv8Loor.gif

[imb]

i mean obviously you would trade contreras for trout, but it would have to be someone of that level to consider giving up 6 cheap years of buster posey

[snoodmonger]

i wouldn't trade contreras for trout

 

fyi trout is a really good baseball player, not just a kind of fish

[Tracer Bullet]

i wouldn't trade contreras for trout

 

fyi trout is a really good baseball player, not just a kind of fish

 

Sure, 30 years ago. But I'm not sure how much Steve has left in the tank.

[jersey cubs fan]

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