What to Expect from the Newest Cub, Starter Kevin Gausman

On Sunday night, the Chicago Cubs acquired right-handed pitcher Kevin Gausman from the Toronto Blue Jays for minor leaguers Ty Southisene and Brett Bateman. Gasuman, 35, has reinvented himself in the second half of his career, turning into one of the better and more durable starting pitchers in baseball over the last six years. To be precise, since 2021, only two pitchers (Zack Wheeler and Logan Webb) have accrued more fWAR than Gausman. So, what are the Cubs getting in the right-handed pitcher?

On the surface, Gausman will remind you of another Cubs starting pitcher: Shota Imanaga. He's a heavy fastball-splitter pitcher, throwing those two offerings nearly 90% of the time. He's a bit more fastball-heavy against righties and a little more splitter-heavy against lefties, but he's mostly a two-pitch guy. The other 10% of his mix is a slider. As is true of Imanaga, that approach leads to lots of fly balls against Gausman.

Much like Imanaga, he does a pretty good job in both the chase and the whiff departments. Even in his mid-30s, Gausman has a chase rate in the 86th percentile, while he keeps his whiff rate in the 63rd percentile. This results in an above-average strikeout rate and a lower-than-average walk rate. While Gausman is not a Stuff+ merchant (he sits just under 100 on the Stuff+ scale according to FanGraphs), he uses his offerings well and continues to force hitters to swing at pitches out of the zone. 

One place he differs from Imanaga is that despite a high fly-ball approach, he's someone who keeps the ball in the park relatively well. His 9.7 HR/FB% is below the league average. He will give up home runs, simply because he lets the ball get into the jet stream so often, but he isn't plagued by the home run. 

For a player with such good control, though, his numbers this year have been pedestrian—most notably, his 4.38 ERA. That isn't going to scream out "rotation savior" on first glance, but I believe this number is a mirage based on unsustainable left-on-base numbers (his 67.4% LOB% is low), some bad luck, and a merely "decent" defensive work behind him (the Jays are ranked 13th in DRS and 15th in OAA). Putting any pitcher in front of the Cubs' elite defense will make them look better (as David Peterson reminds us); Gausman should benefit from this. That's why I believe in his expected stats more than his actual ones.

Those underlying numbers paint a much rosier picture. Despite that 4.38, his expected ERA is 3.95, his FIP is 3.52 and his xFIP is 3.82. The xFIP and FIP both rank first on the Cubs, to put it in perspective. While these fall short of "ace" status, Gausman's 2.6 fWAR on the season puts him on level with Joe Ryan, Nolan McClean and Gavin Williams; he's in good company. It's all painting a picture of a pitcher you can easily see improving on his raw numbers with a better defense and a little better luck. He's a pitcher you can really count on when he's on the mound.

Another thing that Gausman comes with is playoff experience. Last year, the Blue Jays were (famously) just one out away from capturing a World Series over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Gausman wasn't in line to be a World Series MVP, he managed to strike out 26 hitters over 30 innings, kept his ERA under 3.00 and had a few strong outings against the Dodgers, too. You can pencil him into a playoff start with ease against any team. 

All in all, the Cubs are getting an experienced starting pitcher who should play well in front of the their excellent defense. Gausman adds a little extra whiff, a lot of chase and quality for a Cubs' team screaming out for innings in the rotation. He isn't so good that you end up pinning all your hopes and dreams on him, and the return for Toronto doesn't stop the Cubs from doing anything else, so there's a good chance he's the second-best player the team adds before the 5 PM CT trade deadline on Monday. It also allows the Cubs to be a little more patient in the leadup. By having one bird in the hand, the Cubs have completed some of their buying now and can continue to add more Monday without the immense pressure they could be facing. Gausman is a great first step in rebuilding the pitching staff, and it's unlikely he will be the only addition. 

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