2016 Trade Deadline

[CubinNY]

It's a NY media driven story. Cashman is not that stupid.

[CubinNY]

Does it seem like there are less trade rumors this year than most?

[Sammy Sofa]

Does it seem like there are less trade rumors this year than most?

 

We're still not used to them burning assets off at the deadline.

[stitchface]

O'Dowd's Miller trade:

 

Torres, Happ and Almora

[Agony and Ivy]

O'Dowd's Miller trade:

 

Torres, Happ and Almora

 

Gross. Remove one of the infielders.

[UMFan83]

O'Dowd's Miller trade:

 

Torres, Happ and Almora

 

That's just way too much. I don't mind paying a premium price to fill a glaring weakness, but if that is the type of return that it takes to get Miller, I'd much rather acquire a couple of "B" names for LHP in the pen and hope one of them works out.

[Agony and Ivy]

O'Dowd's Miller trade:

 

Torres, Happ and Almora

 

That's just way too much. I don't mind paying a premium price to fill a glaring weakness, but if that is the type of return that it takes to get Miller, I'd much rather acquire a couple of "B" names for LHP in the pen and hope one of them works out.

 

Swap out Happ or Torres with Vogelbach and it's still an overpay but it's not disgusting. Or go get Boone Logan and Jake McGee.

[Banedon]

The east coast media is consistently over-valuing Miller, and I think they're gonna be bemoaning what he actually goes for.

[UMFan83]

O'Dowd's Miller trade:

 

Torres, Happ and Almora

 

That's just way too much. I don't mind paying a premium price to fill a glaring weakness, but if that is the type of return that it takes to get Miller, I'd much rather acquire a couple of "B" names for LHP in the pen and hope one of them works out.

 

Swap out Happ or Torres with Vogelbach and it's still an overpay but it's not disgusting. Or go get Boone Logan and Jake McGee.

 

I still think that's too much. Vogelbach is fine, but giving up him plus a top 30 prospect (based on midseason prospect rankings) AND another top 100 guy (based on preseason rankings) is too much for a guy that has never pitched more than 63 innings in a season since becoming a full time reliever. He has value and fills a glaring need but you can take a risk in filling his 60 innings with internal options, lesser trades or scrap heap relievers.

[Agony and Ivy]

 

That's just way too much. I don't mind paying a premium price to fill a glaring weakness, but if that is the type of return that it takes to get Miller, I'd much rather acquire a couple of "B" names for LHP in the pen and hope one of them works out.

 

Swap out Happ or Torres with Vogelbach and it's still an overpay but it's not disgusting. Or go get Boone Logan and Jake McGee.

 

I still think that's too much. Vogelbach is fine, but giving up him plus a top 30 prospect (based on midseason prospect rankings) AND another top 100 guy (based on preseason rankings) is too much for a guy that has never pitched more than 63 innings in a season since becoming a full time reliever. He has value and fills a glaring need but you can take a risk in filling his 60 innings with internal options, lesser trades or scrap heap relievers.

 

I said it was too much but I don't think Vogelbach is any good outside of the AL. Now, if they can confirm that the Indians aren't including Frazier or Zimmer then that changes the game. Zimmer and Frazier vs Torres and Happ is basically a wash.

[stitchface]

 

Swap out Happ or Torres with Vogelbach and it's still an overpay but it's not disgusting. Or go get Boone Logan and Jake McGee.

 

I still think that's too much. Vogelbach is fine, but giving up him plus a top 30 prospect (based on midseason prospect rankings) AND another top 100 guy (based on preseason rankings) is too much for a guy that has never pitched more than 63 innings in a season since becoming a full time reliever. He has value and fills a glaring need but you can take a risk in filling his 60 innings with internal options, lesser trades or scrap heap relievers.

 

I said it was too much but I don't think Vogelbach is any good outside of the AL. Now, if they can confirm that the Indians aren't including Frazier or Zimmer then that changes the game. Zimmer and Frazier vs Torres and Happ is basically a wash.

 

Do you guys have an opinion on how much Miller tilts the WS odds for the Cubs? 5%? 10%?

[David]

 

I still think that's too much. Vogelbach is fine, but giving up him plus a top 30 prospect (based on midseason prospect rankings) AND another top 100 guy (based on preseason rankings) is too much for a guy that has never pitched more than 63 innings in a season since becoming a full time reliever. He has value and fills a glaring need but you can take a risk in filling his 60 innings with internal options, lesser trades or scrap heap relievers.

 

I said it was too much but I don't think Vogelbach is any good outside of the AL. Now, if they can confirm that the Indians aren't including Frazier or Zimmer then that changes the game. Zimmer and Frazier vs Torres and Happ is basically a wash.

 

Do you guys have an opinion on how much Miller tilts the WS odds for the Cubs? 5%? 10%?

 

well below 5%

 

probably below 1%

[Agony and Ivy]

 

I said it was too much but I don't think Vogelbach is any good outside of the AL. Now, if they can confirm that the Indians aren't including Frazier or Zimmer then that changes the game. Zimmer and Frazier vs Torres and Happ is basically a wash.

 

Do you guys have an opinion on how much Miller tilts the WS odds for the Cubs? 5%? 10%?

 

well below 5%

 

probably below 1%

 

I agree but in a purely situational setting in one game in October he adds much more to that in a spot against a guy like Murphy or Harper. It moves their odds up 1% now but once they reach the playoff it's a little more drastic but still maybe 5%?

[David]

 

Do you guys have an opinion on how much Miller tilts the WS odds for the Cubs? 5%? 10%?

 

well below 5%

 

probably below 1%

 

I agree but in a purely situational setting in one game in October he adds much more to that in a spot against a guy like Murphy or Harper. It moves their odds up 1% now but once they reach the playoff it's a little more drastic but still maybe 5%?

 

they are already in the playoffs as far as the odds calculations are concerned.

[Gmoney08]

O'Dowd's Miller trade:

 

Torres, Happ and Almora

 

Would you guys pull the trigger on this for Miller & Chapman?

 

Seems like it is similar to Addison Russell going in a deal to land two SP.

 

Cubs also have the time advantage on this end, Russell was date I think right around 4th of July. He was the premium offered to land those guys a month below the deadline.

 

We are two weeks farther along right now. Three good prospects, have seen Torres close to the top 25 in some publications (I personally like Eloy more), Almora looks like he can at least hack it decently in the Majors right now, and Happ isnt too far from the majors.

 

Russell was more elite than these three Cubs prospects but the quantity is better in this deal, and its three good prospects. & again the time premium is on the Cubs side because it would probably be at the deadline.

 

Other factor is it is two relievers, compared to two SP in the A's deal.

[Agony and Ivy]

 

well below 5%

 

probably below 1%

 

I agree but in a purely situational setting in one game in October he adds much more to that in a spot against a guy like Murphy or Harper. It moves their odds up 1% now but once they reach the playoff it's a little more drastic but still maybe 5%?

 

they are already in the playoffs as far as the odds calculations are concerned.

 

Right but the WS odds will change when the postseason matchups are set.

[Agony and Ivy]

O'Dowd's Miller trade:

 

Torres, Happ and Almora

 

Would you guys pull the trigger on this for Miller & Chapman?

 

Seems like it is similar to Addison Russell going in a deal to land two SP.

 

Cubs also have the time advantage on this end, Russell was date I think right around 4th of July. He was the premium offered to land those guys a month below the deadline.

 

We are two weeks farther along right now. Three good prospects, have seen Torres close to the top 25 in some publications (I personally like Eloy more), Almora looks like he can at least hack it decently in the Majors right now, and Happ isnt too far from the majors.

 

Russell was more elite than these three Cubs prospects but the quantity is better in this deal, and its three good prospects. & again the time premium is on the Cubs side because it would probably be at the deadline.

 

Other factor is it is two relievers, compared to two SP in the A's deal.

 

Yup. I would make that deal. None of those 3 are close to Russell. I would bet it would take Soler as well though.

[David]

 

I agree but in a purely situational setting in one game in October he adds much more to that in a spot against a guy like Murphy or Harper. It moves their odds up 1% now but once they reach the playoff it's a little more drastic but still maybe 5%?

 

they are already in the playoffs as far as the odds calculations are concerned.

 

Right but the WS odds will change when the postseason matchups are set.

 

not by much at all.

[Gmoney08]

O'Dowd's Miller trade:

 

Torres, Happ and Almora

 

Would you guys pull the trigger on this for Miller & Chapman?

 

Seems like it is similar to Addison Russell going in a deal to land two SP.

 

Cubs also have the time advantage on this end, Russell was date I think right around 4th of July. He was the premium offered to land those guys a month below the deadline.

 

We are two weeks farther along right now. Three good prospects, have seen Torres close to the top 25 in some publications (I personally like Eloy more), Almora looks like he can at least hack it decently in the Majors right now, and Happ isnt too far from the majors.

 

Russell was more elite than these three Cubs prospects but the quantity is better in this deal, and its three good prospects. & again the time premium is on the Cubs side because it would probably be at the deadline.

 

Other factor is it is two relievers, compared to two SP in the A's deal.

 

Yup. I would make that deal. None of those 3 are close to Russell. I would bet it would take Soler as well though.

 

Soler, Torres, Happ for both...

 

Keep Almora for the chance they dont sign Fowler again next year or someone else.

 

Maybe the Yankees like Vogelbach (pure bat) since their an AL team over Happ or Torres and work him in.

[Cubswin11]

O'Dowd's Miller trade:

 

Torres, Happ and Almora

 

Would you guys pull the trigger on this for Miller & Chapman?

I'd want Eovaldi in that deal as well

[Gmoney08]

To piggyback on that adding Soler to that group I think is too much. A pure addition and having a deal based around Soler, Almora, Torres, and Happ could probably land almost any player in baseball with the exception of maybe Harper, Trout, Machado, and Kershaw.

 

Go look back on past deals for elite elite players and most dont bring a haul near that in value.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

O'Dowd's Miller trade:

 

Torres, Happ and Almora

 

It looks like O'Dowd is trying to say 'Andrew Miller is not getting traded'. That's fine if the Yankees want to go that way, but even take the Cubs out of it, what team is going to give up that equivalent?

[Agony and Ivy]

 

they are already in the playoffs as far as the odds calculations are concerned.

 

Right but the WS odds will change when the postseason matchups are set.

 

not by much at all.

 

There's about 7% in residual "odds" if you take the top 6 Playoff odd teams from each league. That's not nothing but yeah it's not going to move the needle some crazy amount where you sell the farm for either of those guys.

[squally1313]

I probably missed his name being mentioned at some point, but does Zach Duke interest anyone here? He doesn't have much in the way of splits (lefties have been way better against him this year, but it was flipped last year). Nothing fancy, but he's cheap.

[Agony and Ivy]

To piggyback on that adding Soler to that group I think is too much. A pure addition and having a deal based around Soler, Almora, Torres, and Happ could probably land almost any player in baseball with the exception of maybe Harper, Trout, Machado, and Kershaw.

 

Go look back on past deals for elite elite players and most dont bring a haul near that in value.

 

Find me a deadline deal where anyone near that caliber was traded at the deadline. It doesn't happen often. The market this year is different than last year and next year will be different than this one but in order to get both of those guys from New York it's going to take a ton.