2016 Trade Deadline

JennieGarthAlgar · July 11, 2016

What would be considered a "haul" for another team? What would be an overpay on our end? I feel like we have 10 guys that we could package together (without hurting the current ML team too negatively) in some sort of way that would be too good for certain teams to turn down.

Soler

Almora

Candelario

Vogelbach

Zagunis

Happ

Torres

Jiminez

Cease

Hudson

You basically have 3 different tiers:

1. young guys with pedigree and ML experience

2. young guys with pedigree and either ready for ML now or 1 year away

3. younger guys with pedigree and bit longer to go but have huge upside

I realize I am awfully biased but even the worst 4 man combination of those guys should be enough to get a good SP, right?

Tim · July 11, 2016

So, what're we looking at for buyers and sellers.....

Buyers- Orioles, Red Sox, Blue Jays,Yankees, Indians, Tigers, Royals, White Sox, Rangers, Astros, Mariners, Nats, Marlins, Mets, Cubs, Cards, Pirates, Giants, Dodgers

Of those, its conceivable a few of the Yankees, Tigers, Royals, White Sox, or Mariners change course or just hold at the deadline.

Sellers- Rays, Twins, A's, Angels, Braves, Phillies, Reds, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Padres, and Rockies

Team Needs

O's- OF and SP
Red Sox- SP and BP
Blue Jays- SP
Yankees- SP(outgunned hitting-wise, easiest team to look at and figure they'll sell obviously)
Indians- 3B, OF, BP
Tigers-SP, BP
Royals- 2B, 3B, OF, SP
White Sox- OF, SP
Rangers-SP, BP
Astros-OF, SP
Mariners-1B, OF, BP
Nats- OF, BP
Marlins- SP
Mets- 3B, OF
Cubs- OF, SP, BP
Pirates-SS, BP
Cards-OF,BP
Giants-OF, BP
Dodgers-OF, SP, BP

I may be a bit off on needs, by a Fangraphs glance, I wouldn't list SP as a need for us, if I weren't a fan of the team. But, this should be fairly close.....

Little bit harder to identify what exactly some of the sellers will sell. But I'll try and add to this later on this evening. If anyone has other needs for some of the buyers, let me know.

hey, man, you're stealing my article! :)

davell · July 11, 2016

So, what're we looking at for buyers and sellers.....

Buyers- Orioles, Red Sox, Blue Jays,Yankees, Indians, Tigers, Royals, White Sox, Rangers, Astros, Mariners, Nats, Marlins, Mets, Cubs, Cards, Pirates, Giants, Dodgers

Of those, its conceivable a few of the Yankees, Tigers, Royals, White Sox, or Mariners change course or just hold at the deadline.

Sellers- Rays, Twins, A's, Angels, Braves, Phillies, Reds, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Padres, and Rockies

Team Needs

O's- OF and SP
Red Sox- SP and BP
Blue Jays- SP
Yankees- SP(outgunned hitting-wise, easiest team to look at and figure they'll sell obviously)
Indians- 3B, OF, BP
Tigers-SP, BP
Royals- 2B, 3B, OF, SP
White Sox- OF, SP
Rangers-SP, BP
Astros-OF, SP
Mariners-1B, OF, BP
Nats- OF, BP
Marlins- SP
Mets- 3B, OF
Cubs- OF, SP, BP
Pirates-SS, BP
Cards-OF,BP
Giants-OF, BP
Dodgers-OF, SP, BP

I may be a bit off on needs, by a Fangraphs glance, I wouldn't list SP as a need for us, if I weren't a fan of the team. But, this should be fairly close.....

Little bit harder to identify what exactly some of the sellers will sell. But I'll try and add to this later on this evening. If anyone has other needs for some of the buyers, let me know.
hey, man, you're stealing my article! :)

Oh, go for it! Looks like there's some intriguing arms on some of the sellers that aren't getting talked about.

Tim · July 11, 2016

Here's the first look at the other teams. I combed through the bottom of the AL standings to look what might be for sale from Minnesota, Tampa, LA & Oakland.

http://www.northsidebaseball.com/articles/cubs-articles/42-cubs-trade-deadline-preview-al-teams

Little Slide Rooter · July 11, 2016

Here's the first look at the other teams. I combed through the bottom of the AL standings to look what might be for sale from Minnesota, Tampa, LA & Oakland.

http://www.northsidebaseball.com/articles/cubs-articles/42-cubs-trade-deadline-preview-al-teams

I still say that Ervin Santana's shouldn't be overlooked. He's owed 27mm over the next 2 years, which might not be the worst thing, considering the upcoming free agent SP class.

Tim · July 11, 2016

Nice roundup Tim, but honestly, most of those names are pretty unappealing and would, likely, not bring the bang for the trade buck that the Cubs are at least hopefully looking for. One name there I would avoid is Drew Smyly. He has had a bunch of arm injuries, and has ridiculous HR rates despite pitching in a friendly park during a friendly era. I'd actually be devastated if the Cubs gave up anything of value for him.

The Twins have this rookie LHP Taylor Rogers...That guy has got an arm.

Question: What about Josh Reddick? He's probably my second favorite rental option with plenty of wiggle room to be first, and probably behind only Gonzalez (and maybe Grossman) on my OF wishlist.

I thought about including Rogers, but why on earth would the Twins move him?

Reddick was probably an oversight on my part, but my premise is that the Cubs would only make a move for a position player if that guy is a stud. Reddick is pretty close, but I don't think he is so much of an upgrade over who we have once Fowler comes back that the Cubs would go and get him.

Tim · July 11, 2016

Here's the first look at the other teams. I combed through the bottom of the AL standings to look what might be for sale from Minnesota, Tampa, LA & Oakland.

http://www.northsidebaseball.com/articles/cubs-articles/42-cubs-trade-deadline-preview-al-teams

I still say that Ervin Santana's shouldn't be overlooked. He's owed 27mm over the next 2 years, which might not be the worst thing, considering the upcoming free agent SP class.

Unless Minnesota is purely giving him away, he doesn't represent much of an upgrade for that kind of price.

Tim · July 11, 2016

I thought about including Rogers, but why on earth would the Twins move him?

Reddick was probably an oversight on my part, but my premise is that the Cubs would only make a move for a position player if that guy is a stud. Reddick is pretty close, but I don't think he is so much of an upgrade over who we have once Fowler comes back that the Cubs would go and get him.

:shrugs: - I figure if Grossman is maybe available then this guy might be.

Reddick is definitely an upgrade - and of the LHH variety as the runors have been. A Heyward-Fowler-Reddick OF is a damn good one to go into the playoffs with.

Trading for Reddick means that you now have a "regular" at every position on the field. That means nearly no at bats for Baez, Soler and La Stella. Now, if a couple of those guys are used in trades to get a big name pitcher, then I guess I could see it. But I doubt they make a move for a position player unless it is someone really big.

And no, I don't think that's CarGo, either.

davell · July 11, 2016

I figure they want another lefty bat with pop, since Heyward hasn't been that, so far. Kind of what they originally envisioned, with Schwarber this season. He'd see pitches, grind out AB's... .That stuff. Replenishes some lost depth, makes it that much easier to deal Soler for pitching......

Tim · July 11, 2016

Trading for Reddick means that you now have a "regular" at every position on the field. That means nearly no at bats for Baez, Soler and La Stella. Now, if a couple of those guys are used in trades to get a big name pitcher, then I guess I could see it. But I doubt they make a move for a position player unless it is someone really big.

And no, I don't think that's CarGo, either.

Baez, Soler, and La Stella are thre e of the lesser hitters on the team, there's nothing wrong with upgrading on those guys for a WS run. I also wouldn't be overly surprised to see any moved at the deadline, and either Gonzalez or Reddick is a really big move.

You already have the #2 offense in baseball and the Cubs still think very highly of those guys. I guess it is possible, but Reddick is going to be a pretty expensive rental. As Theo said, there are other teams with much more obvious needs in the OF that are almost certainly going to be willing to pay more.

Tim · July 11, 2016

You already have the #2 offense in baseball and the Cubs still think very highly of those guys. I guess it is possible, but Reddick is going to be a pretty expensive rental. As Theo said, there are other teams with much more obvious needs in the OF that are almost certainly going to be willing to pay more.

I think you can think highly of those guys without thinking they are necessarily counting on them to win a WS. They aren't the reason this is the #2 ranked offense or anything. I also think that the Cubs' needs are shared by many and I don't believe Epstein singled out any single position when he said what he said. Plus, saying you don't want to pay the most is pretty generic in the grand scheme of things.

I think the team is counting on them more for the future than the present. With Contreras up, they essentially just need to fill out the eighth spot in the lineup.

What it comes down to for me is that the team is only going to give up so many of the assets that they've accumulated. There are much greater needs on the pitching side. That's where I think they're much more likely to make a move.

Tim · July 11, 2016

I figure they want another lefty bat with pop, since Heyward hasn't been that, so far. Kind of what they originally envisioned, with Schwarber this season. He'd see pitches, grind out AB's... .That stuff. Replenishes some lost depth, makes it that much easier to deal Soler for pitching......

Reddick hasn't shown a whole bunch of pop. He'd definitely grind out at bats, though.

Transmogrified Tiger · July 11, 2016

When Fowler is healthy, the Cubs will have Almora, Soler (also when healthy in a week or two), Coghlan, Szczur, Contreras (the ~half of games he's not catching), and Baez/La Stella (via Bryant) for one starting spot. Two of those guys are getting demoted or DFA'd for pure lack of roster space. I have a really hard time seeing the front office adding a bat unless there's a serious injury.

davell · July 11, 2016

When Fowler is healthy, the Cubs will have Almora, Soler (also when healthy in a week or two), Coghlan, Szczur, Contreras (the ~half of games he's not catching), and Baez/La Stella (via Bryant) for one starting spot. Two of those guys are getting demoted or DFA'd for pure lack of roster space. I have a really hard time seeing the front office adding a bat unless there's a serious injury.

I don't look at that group quite the same. My guess is when Dex is back, we'll send Almora back down to get him consistent AB's. He'll be back for September(earlier if injury dictates) and the playoffs. Coghlan isn't a factor to me at all. He could be DFA'd in August. Contreras will get some time in LF, but he's going to get 3 of 5 behind the plate, from the looks of things.He'll get a few days off here and there, but so will Dex and Heyward. KB will get some time in the OF, to give Javy some starts in the IF.

Szczur is a backup. My guess is he doesn't get 10 starts the rest of the year. Soler seems to be the guy who gets dealt, to me. If he's healthy by the deadline anyway. Same with Seal Boy.

70 Games(Starts per player in OF)

Dex-60

Heyward-60

Contreras-20(plus 42 at C)

KB-20

Szczur-10

That leaves 40. Yes, they could go to any of Coghlan, Soler, or LA Stella. But I think all 3 will be gone personally. A Reddick could take all those games, plus a few more, and the AB's could still be fine for everyone.

Edit-Forgot Almora, but I'd figure he gets 15 or so. But we've got Interleague coming too, so there's 8 DH games coming up too.

Transmogrified Tiger · July 11, 2016

When Fowler is healthy, the Cubs will have Almora, Soler (also when healthy in a week or two), Coghlan, Szczur, Contreras (the ~half of games he's not catching), and Baez/La Stella (via Bryant) for one starting spot. Two of those guys are getting demoted or DFA'd for pure lack of roster space. I have a really hard time seeing the front office adding a bat unless there's a serious injury.

Does most of that group not being very good play a part in any discussuon? Outside of Fowler and Contreras, a C, the majority of those guys getting significant playing time is more baseball nepotism than merit based.

There's strength in numbers. Individually I'm not terribly optimistic about them, but using the best of those guys and maximizing platoon advantage and matchups is likely to lead to similar or even better production than an acquisition. Almora, Baez and Szczur have been lefty killers in their brief time, Coghlan and La Stella can hit RHP, Contreras looks like he's getting the Schwarber treatment of plenty of LF time and he's hitting everyone, and we still have Soler who had an .834 OPS in the month (74 PA) prior to his injury. I like Reddick personally, but he's also a guy with a .330s wOBA, so we're not exactly setting a super high bar to clear here either.

Tim · July 11, 2016

When Fowler is healthy, the Cubs will have Almora, Soler (also when healthy in a week or two), Coghlan, Szczur, Contreras (the ~half of games he's not catching), and Baez/La Stella (via Bryant) for one starting spot. Two of those guys are getting demoted or DFA'd for pure lack of roster space. I have a really hard time seeing the front office adding a bat unless there's a serious injury.

I don't look at that group quite the same. My guess is when Dex is back, we'll send Almora back down to get him consistent AB's. He'll be back for September(earlier if injury dictates) and the playoffs. Coghlan isn't a factor to me at all. He could be DFA'd in August. Contreras will get some time in LF, but he's going to get 3 of 5 behind the plate, from the looks of things.He'll get a few days off here and there, but so will Dex and Heyward. KB will get some time in the OF, to give Javy some starts in the IF.

Szczur is a backup. My guess is he doesn't get 10 starts the rest of the year. Soler seems to be the guy who gets dealt, to me. If he's healthy by the deadline anyway. Same with Seal Boy.

70 Games(Starts per player in OF)

Dex-60
Heyward-60
Contreras-20(plus 42 at C)
KB-20
Szczur-10

That leaves 40. Yes, they could go to any of Coghlan, Soler, or LA Stella. But I think all 3 will be gone personally. A Reddick could take all those games, plus a few more, and the AB's could still be fine for everyone.

Edit-Forgot Almora, but I'd figure he gets 15 or so. But we've got Interleague coming too, so there's 8 DH games coming up too.

In order to outbid all the teams that actually need a left fielder for Reddick, you're going to have to be prepared to give up a serious prospect or two for him. To get the upgrade from Soler/et al to Reddick, are you willing to give up 6+ years of someone like Happ? If you say we'll pay less than that, just keep in mind a team like Cleveland that may actually be one bat away. Do you think that the team is going to unload enough prospects to get a top tier reliever and a starter and bat? If not, which do you think they'll sacrifice first?

UMFan83 · July 11, 2016

I still think Soler turns out really good, but I think he should be a clear target to trade assuming he still has good value. I think there has been enough upside shown to get a team to bite as a key piece in a deal. But given the talent coming up, the iffy regular season so far, Schwarber returning next year, and most importantly the annual leg injuries that take a long time to heal, he seems like an obvious piece to go.

davell · July 11, 2016

When Fowler is healthy, the Cubs will have Almora, Soler (also when healthy in a week or two), Coghlan, Szczur, Contreras (the ~half of games he's not catching), and Baez/La Stella (via Bryant) for one starting spot. Two of those guys are getting demoted or DFA'd for pure lack of roster space. I have a really hard time seeing the front office adding a bat unless there's a serious injury.

I don't look at that group quite the same. My guess is when Dex is back, we'll send Almora back down to get him consistent AB's. He'll be back for September(earlier if injury dictates) and the playoffs. Coghlan isn't a factor to me at all. He could be DFA'd in August. Contreras will get some time in LF, but he's going to get 3 of 5 behind the plate, from the looks of things.He'll get a few days off here and there, but so will Dex and Heyward. KB will get some time in the OF, to give Javy some starts in the IF.

Szczur is a backup. My guess is he doesn't get 10 starts the rest of the year. Soler seems to be the guy who gets dealt, to me. If he's healthy by the deadline anyway. Same with Seal Boy.

70 Games(Starts per player in OF)

Dex-60
Heyward-60
Contreras-20(plus 42 at C)
KB-20
Szczur-10

That leaves 40. Yes, they could go to any of Coghlan, Soler, or LA Stella. But I think all 3 will be gone personally. A Reddick could take all those games, plus a few more, and the AB's could still be fine for everyone.

Edit-Forgot Almora, but I'd figure he gets 15 or so. But we've got Interleague coming too, so there's 8 DH games coming up too.
In order to outbid all the teams that actually need a left fielder for Reddick, you're going to have to be prepared to give up a serious prospect or two for him. To get the upgrade from Soler/et al to Reddick, are you willing to give up 6+ years of someone like Happ? If you say we'll pay less than that, just keep in mind a team like Cleveland that may actually be one bat away. Do you think that the team is going to unload enough prospects to get a top tier reliever and a starter and bat? If not, which do you think they'll sacrifice first?

Its an extremely valid point. Its kind of what I was heading towards when I posted needs and stuff earlier. I wanted to see the true supply and demand side of things to see where our best bets were. Even Theo has said he expects to add a reliever from outside the org, so that ones easy. But I think we'd need to open up the market to see whether its feasible to add both an OF and a SP on top of that. Or which one has the best chance to give us help for a slightly cheaper price.

My legit guess at what we're dealing away......

Soler

Candelario

Vogelbach

Torres

2 of Zagunis, Caratini, and McKinney

La Stella

I think Happ and Eloy stick around. So does that group of guys get us a RP, SP, and an OF? Obviously, it could. But its dependent upon the impact of the guy(s) we'd acquire. Also, if we actually moved all or most of that group.

sneakypower · July 11, 2016

I don't look at that group quite the same. My guess is when Dex is back, we'll send Almora back down to get him consistent AB's. He'll be back for September(earlier if injury dictates) and the playoffs. Coghlan isn't a factor to me at all. He could be DFA'd in August. Contreras will get some time in LF, but he's going to get 3 of 5 behind the plate, from the looks of things.He'll get a few days off here and there, but so will Dex and Heyward. KB will get some time in the OF, to give Javy some starts in the IF.

Szczur is a backup. My guess is he doesn't get 10 starts the rest of the year. Soler seems to be the guy who gets dealt, to me. If he's healthy by the deadline anyway. Same with Seal Boy.

70 Games(Starts per player in OF)

Dex-60
Heyward-60
Contreras-20(plus 42 at C)
KB-20
Szczur-10

That leaves 40. Yes, they could go to any of Coghlan, Soler, or LA Stella. But I think all 3 will be gone personally. A Reddick could take all those games, plus a few more, and the AB's could still be fine for everyone.

Edit-Forgot Almora, but I'd figure he gets 15 or so. But we've got Interleague coming too, so there's 8 DH games coming up too.
In order to outbid all the teams that actually need a left fielder for Reddick, you're going to have to be prepared to give up a serious prospect or two for him. To get the upgrade from Soler/et al to Reddick, are you willing to give up 6+ years of someone like Happ? If you say we'll pay less than that, just keep in mind a team like Cleveland that may actually be one bat away. Do you think that the team is going to unload enough prospects to get a top tier reliever and a starter and bat? If not, which do you think they'll sacrifice first?

Its an extremely valid point. Its kind of what I was heading towards when I posted needs and stuff earlier. I wanted to see the true supply and demand side of things to see where our best bets were. Even Theo has said he expects to add a reliever from outside the org, so that ones easy. But I think we'd need to open up the market to see whether its feasible to add both an OF and a SP on top of that. Or which one has the best chance to give us help for a slightly cheaper price.

My legit guess at what we're dealing away......

Baez
Soler
Candelario
Vogelbach
Torres
2 of Zagunis, Caratini, and McKinney
La Stella

I think Happ and Eloy stick around. So does that group of guys get us a RP, SP, and an OF? Obviously, it could. But its dependent upon the impact of the guy(s) we'd acquire. Also, if we actually moved all or most of that group.

forgot one

davell · July 11, 2016

In order to outbid all the teams that actually need a left fielder for Reddick, you're going to have to be prepared to give up a serious prospect or two for him. To get the upgrade from Soler/et al to Reddick, are you willing to give up 6+ years of someone like Happ? If you say we'll pay less than that, just keep in mind a team like Cleveland that may actually be one bat away. Do you think that the team is going to unload enough prospects to get a top tier reliever and a starter and bat? If not, which do you think they'll sacrifice first?

Its an extremely valid point. Its kind of what I was heading towards when I posted needs and stuff earlier. I wanted to see the true supply and demand side of things to see where our best bets were. Even Theo has said he expects to add a reliever from outside the org, so that ones easy. But I think we'd need to open up the market to see whether its feasible to add both an OF and a SP on top of that. Or which one has the best chance to give us help for a slightly cheaper price.

My legit guess at what we're dealing away......

Baez
Soler
Candelario
Vogelbach
Torres
2 of Zagunis, Caratini, and McKinney
La Stella

I think Happ and Eloy stick around. So does that group of guys get us a RP, SP, and an OF? Obviously, it could. But its dependent upon the impact of the guy(s) we'd acquire. Also, if we actually moved all or most of that group.
forgot one

You know he's not going anywhere.

philosophizer75 · July 11, 2016

I would be shocked and disappointed if we dealt Baez. His upside is huge, and he has been a solid, regular contributor this season. The rest of that list I could see.

sneakypower · July 11, 2016

sell "high" baby

Transmogrified Tiger · July 11, 2016

There's strength in numbers. Individually I'm not terribly optimistic about them, but using the best of those guys and maximizing platoon advantage and matchups is likely to lead to similar or even better production than an acquisition. Almora, Baez and Szczur have been lefty killers in their brief time, Coghlan and La Stella can hit RHP, Contreras looks like he's getting the Schwarber treatment of plenty of LF time and he's hitting everyone, and we still have Soler who had an .834 OPS in the month (74 PA) prior to his injury. I like Reddick personally, but he's also a guy with a .330s wOBA, so we're not exactly setting a super high bar to clear here either.

Strength in numbers is exactly why I think they should add another bat, and quality of the quantity matters given that there's only 25 roster spots. I don't normally agree with Dave Cameron but he wrote a solid piece on why the Red Sox should add another bat this deadline and it included this bit:

And despite the commonly-accepted wisdom that a team should only try to improve by upgrading on its weakest link — in Boston’s case, that would clearly be the pitching staff — the Red Sox would actually benefit quite a bit from the addition of another quality hitter. Yes, they already lead the majors in runs scored, so some will claim that the team has “enough offense”, but there is no truth to the idea that there are diminishing returns on adding good hitters to an already-good offense. In fact, the inverse is actually true.

Because hitters perform better with men on base than the bases empty, upgrading an offense that is already performing well will actually result in a larger increase in run scoring than adding a good hitter to a weak line-up, assuming both are replacing the same equally poor hitter. I went into some depth about the effects of a line-up on a hitter’s value last year, but the short version is that Lucroy is more valuable to the Red Sox than he would be to a team with a struggling offense because his hits are more likely to come when there are runners on base in a good line-up, and having good hitters behind him means he’s more likely to be driven in when he reaches base himself.

Reddick's .330's wOBA may not get you hooked, but his 117 wRC+ would be good for 6th best (5th among players with 200+ PA) on this roster as would his WPA.

Between the Baez/Almora/La Stella/Soler/Coghlan/Szczur group there's probably a good bench player apiece for the IF and OF, but those guys belong on the bench and out of the starting lineup for a team hunting a WS.

Reddick on this team is better for the season's output than the player he'd be replacing, but then you start getting into the opportunity cost. The player cost to get Reddick, the literal player you have to DFA(Coghlan, Szczur, TLS?) or demote(Almora, Baez? Contreras?) to fit him on the roster, the lost MLB plate appearances for future development(Almora, Baez, Contreras, Soler). I don't think the most likely outcome for any one of the individuals is Reddick(aside from maybe Contreras), but I do think the most likely outcome for the group for this season is Reddick or better.

I'd also add this is why you pay Joe Maddon 5 million dollars a year, to optimize playing time to get results so you get the best of all worlds(production, player development, and preserved trade assets).

sneakypower · July 11, 2016

I would be shocked and disappointed if we dealt Baez. His upside is huge, and he has been a solid, regular contributor this season. The rest of that list I could see.

context-wise, he's been kind of lousy

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=3&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=17&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&page=1_50

philosophizer75 · July 11, 2016

Fair enough, but I'd deal literally everyone else on the list before javy. I may be jaded because I think he's fun as hell to watch play, and he does have a ton of potential.

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