General Baseball Chit-Chat Thread

[pitchcs]

Adam Wainright is 16-7 with a 2.89 ERA. How is this possible??? Is he a Cy front runner? Certainly he’s a candidate.

 

The betting market isn’t even offering him at 250:1 to win, so I don’t think he’s a realistic candidate. Max Scherzer is -260

 

Forgot about Scherzer, he’s a shoo-in. I don’t think Wainright wins but he would be “a” front runner I’d imagine, along with Max, Walker and Julio. Dodger rotation as usual is pretty filthy.

 

As of today:

 

Scherzer -285

Burnes +195

Buehler +1600

Wheeler +3000

Woodruff +5500

DeGrom/Nola/Gausman/Urias/Musgrove/Wainwirght +10000

[We Got The Whole 9]

God that tragedy at Petco is totally heartbreaking. I cannot imagine being that father, who possibly/seemingly was elsewhere in the park when that occured. Coming back to your family and discovering that... really unfathomable.

 

https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/5873999001

[Andy]

God that tragedy at Petco is totally heartbreaking. I cannot imagine being that father, who possibly/seemingly was elsewhere in the park when that occured. Coming back to your family and discovering that... really unfathomable.

 

https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/5873999001

I know absolutely nothing, but the article does say the fall appears to be 'suspicious'. I hope that ends up being unfounded.

[Bull]

Adam Wainright is 16-7 with a 2.89 ERA. How is this possible??? Is he a Cy front runner? Certainly he’s a candidate.

 

The betting market isn’t even offering him at 250:1 to win, so I don’t think he’s a realistic candidate. Max Scherzer is -260

 

Forgot about Scherzer, he’s a shoo-in. I don’t think Wainright wins but he would be “a” front runner I’d imagine, along with Max, Walker and Julio. Dodger rotation as usual is pretty filthy.

Regardless, your point stands. He's old and dumb and it's stupid that he isn't broken.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

https://twitter.com/No_Little_Plans/status/1442907455759867906

[TruffleShuffle]

[TruffleShuffle]

By the way, the teams that can rightfully gloat about outperforming preseason projections are:

 

Giants: 0.2% to win division, 5.7% to make playoffs (currently best record in MLB)

Rays: 5.4% to win division, 26.6% to make playoffs (won division, best record in the AL)

[Derwood]

I've looked back at every year from 1950-2021, and 2021 is the only season I can find (so far) that has four 100-loss teams. Is it the first time ever?

 

There were several years in the 60's with three 100-loss teams, but never four

[Backtobanks]

I've looked back at every year from 1950-2021, and 2021 is the only season I can find (so far) that has four 100-loss teams. Is it the first time ever?

 

There were several years in the 60's with three 100-loss teams, but never four

 

 

The current Cubs roster is on a pace to lose more than 110 games over a full season.

[soccer10k]

Could be some crazy travel for the AL WC teams if there’s a three way tie. The schedule would be Team A at Team B on Monday and then the winner hosts Team C on Tuesday. Boston holds the tiebreakers and would get to pick their spot first. I assume they’ll pick C since they’d only have to win 1 game. Seattle goes next and would pick B so they get 2 home games if they win the first.

 

So Toronto could play in Toronto on Sunday, in Seattle on Monday, in Toronto on Tuesday, in New York on Wednesday and in Tampa on Thursday.

 

Boston could play in Washington on Sunday, Seattle on Tuesday, New York on Wednesday and Tampa on Thursday. And they can’t leave for the tiebreaker game on Tuesday until after Monday’s game ends.

 

Seattle wouldn’t be as bad but they’d still have to play in Seattle on Monday and Tuesday before flying to New York for a game Wednesday.

 

Of course this will probably all be moot since one team will probably win outright to ruin the fun.

[Bertz]

I've looked back at every year from 1950-2021, and 2021 is the only season I can find (so far) that has four 100-loss teams. Is it the first time ever?

 

There were several years in the 60's with three 100-loss teams, but never four

 

This is really surprising to me at least. The league feels much less stratified than it was a few years ago.

 

I guess the difference is that the bad teams have been spread out into separate divisions? There's no longer an AL Central with awful Royals, Tigers, and White Sox, where the unbalanced schedule is the only thing preventing all three from losing 100?

[Backtobanks]

I've looked back at every year from 1950-2021, and 2021 is the only season I can find (so far) that has four 100-loss teams. Is it the first time ever?

 

There were several years in the 60's with three 100-loss teams, but never four

 

This is really surprising to me at least. The league feels much less stratified than it was a few years ago.

 

I guess the difference is that the bad teams have been spread out into separate divisions? There's no longer an AL Central with awful Royals, Tigers, and White Sox, where the unbalanced schedule is the only thing preventing all three from losing 100?

 

I think the league is pretty stratified. Going into the last weekend there are 16 teams more than 10 games out of 1st place.

[UMFan83]

 

This is just insane. How have other teams not caught up to what they are doing?

[chopsx9]

Harrison Bader is a tool with stupid hair with no neck.

 

That is all.

[soccer10k]

I've looked back at every year from 1950-2021, and 2021 is the only season I can find (so far) that has four 100-loss teams. Is it the first time ever?

 

There were several years in the 60's with three 100-loss teams, but never four

 

2019 had it also.

 

I wonder if the last few years are just a blip or if it will be the new normal. In the last four full seasons, there have been 12 100+ win teams (13 if Tampa gets one more win this year) and 11 100+ loss teams. In the decade prior (so 2007 through 2016), there were 5 100+ win teams and 11 100+ loss teams. The 2016 Cubs were the first team with 103+ wins since the 2009 Yankees and the last team with more than 103 wins was the 04 Cards. We've had 8 teams with 103+ wins in the last four full seasons.

 

It seems like after the Cubs and Astros bottomed out and won the WS a few years later, teams are more okay with just saying eff it for a couple years and not even pretending to try to win games. Baltimore lost 108+ the last three full seasons. Detroit went 98, 98, 114 and had the winning percentage of a 98 loss team last year. Pittsburgh went 93, 111 (on pace), 100 (2 games left). I guess we'll have to wait and see for a couple years to see if it continues to know for sure.

[Derwood]

I've looked back at every year from 1950-2021, and 2021 is the only season I can find (so far) that has four 100-loss teams. Is it the first time ever?

 

There were several years in the 60's with three 100-loss teams, but never four

 

2019 had it also.

 

Yep, missed that.

 

Still, it's worrisome that the league's talent gap is widening.

[jersey cubs fan]

I've looked back at every year from 1950-2021, and 2021 is the only season I can find (so far) that has four 100-loss teams. Is it the first time ever?

 

There were several years in the 60's with three 100-loss teams, but never four

 

2019 had it also.

 

Yep, missed that.

 

Still, it's worrisome that the league's talent gap is widening.

it’s intentional though

[PackLandVA]

Looks like the Friars are firing their manager.

 

 

*sorry, I don't know how to insert the actual tweet

[Derwood]

 

There you go

[PackLandVA]

[Bertz]

 

This is just insane. How have other teams not caught up to what they are doing?

 

I think it's two parts. One is being smart and the other is being cheap.

 

The smart part is obvious, they've been an analytically savvy org for like 15 years now. But one of the biggest things about today's cutting edge analytics is that there's not a great way to accelerate the R&D process for teams already way behind. In like 2008 if you had the will and the brainpower all the info you needed to run a bunch of analysis could come from Baseball Reference. But now it's just enough to just go buy some Rapsodo machines, you also need a bunch of data to analyze. And for everyone outside of your org that horsefeathers is proprietary. So like the Cubs IIRC started buying all this tech in 2017, but didn't really generate results out of it til 2019 (when they added Wick, Ryan, and Wieck from the scrap heap). The most cutting edge teams had a ~2 year head start on the Cubs, and a lot of lagging clubs have just started buying the equipment in the last year or two. More of these principles and concepts are hitting the public sphere, which surely cuts down on the timelines, but for like the Rockies there's just simply not a way to catch all the way up this offseason.

 

The other big thing is being cheap. The Dodgers are probably just as smart as the Rays, and always have been. But the Dodgers have expectations and pressure. The Rays don't make significamt win-now moves. They "exchange assets," but never make those "we're gonna regret this in two years" types of moves. The Dodgers have traded for Darvish and Machado and Betts, the Rays just hoard and hoard and hoard. We are seeing a bit of a breaking point, as they're facing some serious 40 man roster crunch this winter, but they'll still likely have a top 5 farm this winter to go along with this current team.

 

Given that it's the Rays though, the big question is whether they've already found the next thing.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

I just like that the Cubs' master plan culminated in Wick, Ryan, and Wieck Voltron two years ago.

[Tim]

I just like that the Cubs' master plan culminated in Wick, Ryan, and Wieck Voltron two years ago.

The master plan culminated in a world series and a sustained run of excellence.

[Bertz]

I just like that the Cubs' master plan culminated in Wick, Ryan, and Wieck Voltron two years ago.

 

I would consider that more of a kickoff than a culmination, but YMMV. It's not worth throwing a parade over, but since the start of 2019 the Cubs are 14th in bullpen ERA despite investing in no one of note except Kimbrel (who ironically was the worst part of the pen for the first half of that period) and selling off all the best parts this past July. There's also some obvious wins on the PD side, but those take longer to pay off.

 

But like, that's where the edges are at this point. There's no longer low hanging analytical fruit ready to be discovered and completely take the league by storm. It's "buy millions of dollars of radar equipment and commit four full time analysts to trudge through the data and then you can reliably buy a pretty good bullpen on the cheap." Before that it was catcher framing. That's where Moneyball is when there's only one truly dumb front office left. And the Cubs specifically are no longer cutting edge obviously. Probably still top 3rd of the league?

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

I just like that the Cubs' master plan culminated in Wick, Ryan, and Wieck Voltron two years ago.

 

I would consider that more of a kickoff than a culmination, but YMMV. It's not worth throwing a parade over, but since the start of 2019 the Cubs are 14th in bullpen ERA despite investing in no one of note except Kimbrel (who ironically was the worst part of the pen for the first half of that period) and selling off all the best parts this past July. There's also some obvious wins on the PD side, but those take longer to pay off.

 

But like, that's where the edges are at this point. There's no longer low hanging analytical fruit ready to be discovered and completely take the league by storm. It's "buy millions of dollars of radar equipment and commit four full time analysts to trudge through the data and then you can reliably buy a pretty good bullpen on the cheap." Before that it was catcher framing. That's where Moneyball is when there's only one truly dumb front office left. And the Cubs specifically are no longer cutting edge obviously. Probably still top 3rd of the league?

Yeah, all of that is true, which is why I think its overfitting to attribute the Cubs's stat investments for the success of three reclamation projects. It's just a pretty small sample size. They signed some scrubs who had mild success. The stat guys probably had a hand in it, but its a reach to say those three are the fruits of their labor (or that their labor was bound or even likely to be fruitful.)