Minor League Musings

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[JBears79]

Kepley needs to be promoted already. I wanna see how he handles AA pitching.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/article/what-a-29-2-score-says-about-the-state-of-low-level-minor-league-baseball--and-why-mlb-fans-should-care-222056306.html

Interesting read

[Outshined_One]

29 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/article/what-a-29-2-score-says-about-the-state-of-low-level-minor-league-baseball--and-why-mlb-fans-should-care-222056306.html

Interesting read

Quote

There’s a growing sense that the league would prefer to effectively outsource aspects of the development process to top college programs. Why spend money, the thinking goes, to make players better when Clemson and Mississippi State will do it for you?

That sums up one of the major issues in a nutshell nicely.  If the NFL gets to offload the cost of training and development onto the NCAA, why shouldn't MLB get the same benefit?

Perhaps that saves teams money over the short term, but how often are players ready to contribute to a major league team right after the draft, much less AAA or even AA?  At least the NFL draft seems to produce dozens of guys who can produce in the NFL their rookie season, but baseball is such a different animal that this mindset makes zero sense to me.

[mul21]

7 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

That sums up one of the major issues in a nutshell nicely.  If the NFL gets to offload the cost of training and development onto the NCAA, why shouldn't MLB get the same benefit?

Perhaps that saves teams money over the short term, but how often are players ready to contribute to a major league team right after the draft, much less AAA or even AA?  At least the NFL draft seems to produce dozens of guys who can produce in the NFL their rookie season, but baseball is such a different animal that this mindset makes zero sense to me.

100% agree with this.  There's obviously technique involved in the NFL, but it's much more about physical abilities than anything else outside of the QB position.  There's so much more nuance to baseball than football that it's an apples to oranges comparison.

[Bertz]

Honestly for domestic players it's fine.  The rare Konnor Griffin gets boxed out of debuting at 19 which has downstream impacts on his career earnings (certainly ownership's aim here), but for most guys it's somewhere close to a wash.  Guys at big time programs like Vandy it's probably actually better than toiling in the minors, and even your like Middle Tennessee States or whatever have gotten WAY WAY WAY better at player dev over the last decade.

I'd be real worried for the IFAs though.  It's already harder for a lot of these guys to get their footing in full season ball than it was a decade ago.  Now you need to go straight from the ACL all the way to High A?  That's a super steep learning curve. we get like one of those guys in the system every 2-3 years?  Even if rising tides help bridge the gap it's still going to harm a lot of mid tier international prospects.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Plus don't they want to get rid of IFA all together and put everyone in the draft?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[KCCub]

 

[craig]

The article about the complex league was interesting.  In younger days, I recall when Latin players listed super young when they hit the majors.  Still variably true:  Moises and Pedro are both 22. But maybe the age-curve for Latin players isn't as extreme, without bogus birthdays and with few actual baseball games played in Latin countries for teenagers.  

Cubs seem to be one of the teams that prioritizes teaching and intrasquad for Mesa guys.  Different, yes; not sure it's bad, though, or worse for development?  

The urgency for velocity over control, that's the game.  When we get buzz reports on Jabrayker Salaya, it's not because he's been a good pitcher.  12.15 ERA, 6 walks in 6.2 innings, 2.1 WHIP.  It's because he's got velocity and wildman stuff that he can't control yet.  That's the modern prospect game, that's not going to change.  

*IF* they want to recapture complex league of past, sure they could expand the rosters and allow an extra 10 undrafted college pitchers to throw more strikes.  That could be helpful, I'd be fine with that.  I don't imagine the costs for adding an extra five bedrooms to the complex dorms and feeding 10 extra college pitchers would be any big deal cost-wise.  Can do that for .2% of a Bregman, or whatever.  

With all the pitch-lab opties for college pitchers, I don't have much problem with American kids largely going to college.  I suspect that a lot of human development and growing up can happen in college, perhaps as well or better than in a complex dorm?  Most HS players aren't going to become major leaguers, do college may better prepare them for a non-big-league life.  There are HS guys who go pro, Hartshorn, Wing, Franklin, Ronny Southisene, Cruz, Lovich, Rosario, Hope.  Not sure the volume is that much lower than a few years back.  

Perhaps for some pitchers, college is as good a developmental route?  In college, development is valued big-time, but so too is winning.  Maybe the value of throwing a strike is developed as well or better in college than in the complex?   

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[We Got The Whole 9]

1 hour ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

 

Hartshorn's 350/444/700 with a 1.0 BBK didnt have the helium, huh

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[lfg26]

So far I'm feeling quite good about the 2025 draft. Out of the first 7 picks, 5 of them are performing well. The early returns on Kepley, Reid, Wing, Hartshorn, and Coppola have been great. For me, the draft grades so far would be (grades based on expected value for how high each pick was, as well as their signing bonuses):

1) Conrad: C-/Incomplete

2) Kepley: A

3) Reid: B+

4) Wing: A

5) Snell: D

6) Hartshorn: A+

7) Coppola: A

Conrad is still a huge question mark. Even without Conrad though, the draft already seems like a win. I feel like Kepley, Wing, and Hartshorn might be hanging out on some top 100 lists by the end of the year (I know Hartshorn already is). Thoughts?

Edited 21 hours ago by lfg26

[Outshined_One]

2 hours ago, lfg26 said:

Even without Conrad though, the draft already seems like a win. I feel like Kepley, Wing, and Hartshorn might be hanging out on some top 100 lists by the end of the year (I know Hartshorn already is). Thoughts?

Kepley is a tough read for me at the moment, because I want to see him challenged in AA and it's not entirely clear what kind of power he has. I think he's a top 10 guy right now, but my excitement dims considerably if he ends up being a sub-.400 SLG type.

[lfg26]

I initially felt the same way. Kepley is a sneaky prospect because he doesn't have much power and he's a bit older, but I've come around on him a lot. His floor seems extremely high for me...

College:

.464 OBP; 136 BB vs 71 K; 87 SB vs 8 CS; solid .469 SLG; i've heard above average defense

Minors so far:

.454 OBP; 72 BB vs 46 K; 46 SB vs 5 CS; solid .406 SLG; i've heard above average defense

-65+ grade plate discipline

-65+ grade baserunning

-50+ grade hit tool

-50+ grade fielding

That all makes for an extremely high floor player. He compares quite well to Kevin McGonigle IMO. 

Edited 16 hours ago by lfg26

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

2 minutes ago, lfg26 said:

I initially felt the same way. Kepley is a sneaky prospect because he doesn't have much power and he's a bit older, but I've come around on him a lot. His floor seems extremely high for me...

College:

.464 OBP; 136 BB vs 71 K; 87 SB vs 8 CS; solid .469 SLG; i've heard above average defense

Minors so far:

.454 OBP; 72 BB vs 46 K; 46 SB vs 5 CS; solid .406 SLG; i've heard above average defense

-70+ grade plate discipline

-70+ grade baserunning

-50+ grade hit tool

-50+ grade fielding

That all makes for an extremely high floor player. He compares quite well to Kevin McGonigle IMO. 

I don't know about McGonigle but the good version of Steven Kwan for sure.

[lfg26]

Fun thought: How many players have managed to have more steals, and more walks, than strikeouts? I know it's just the low minors, but Kepley has 46 steals, and 72 BB, to just 46 Ks right now. And he had more steals and BBs than Ks in college.

[Bertz]

I think you have to be a little worried he's not hitting.  Like his offense is plus because he's walking like crazy, but when you make him actually swing the bat he's been...fine.  And better pitchers will force him to do much more.

Kepley has an 86% contact rate, that's very good but it's not elite.  He's hot a 45% groundball rate which is high but not quite problematic.  He's got 14 XBHs including two dongs.  Jeff McNeil, who the big club just saw, has an 86% contact rate, 45% groundball rate, and 11 XBHs including two dongs.  Now good CF defense and a 50+ steal pace would changs the calculus even there, but it's worth noting that it's not all sunshine and rainbows even with his production so far.

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

I think you have to be a little worried he's not hitting.  Like his offense is plus because he's walking like crazy, but when you make him actually swing the bat he's been...fine.  And better pitchers will force him to do much more.

Kepley has an 86% contact rate, that's very good but it's not elite.  He's hot a 45% groundball rate which is high but not quite problematic.  He's got 14 XBHs including two dongs.  Jeff McNeil, who the big club just saw, has an 86% contact rate, 45% groundball rate, and 11 XBHs including two dongs.  Now good CF defense and a 50+ steal pace would changs the calculus even there, but it's worth noting that it's not all sunshine and rainbows even with his production so far.

I'd probably have Kepley high on my "trade em if someone lives him" list. It isn't that I dislike him, but all of this, added with what we currently have in CF, it feels like he is more expendable. 

[mul21]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

I think you have to be a little worried he's not hitting.  Like his offense is plus because he's walking like crazy, but when you make him actually swing the bat he's been...fine.  And better pitchers will force him to do much more.

Kepley has an 86% contact rate, that's very good but it's not elite.  He's hot a 45% groundball rate which is high but not quite problematic.  He's got 14 XBHs including two dongs.  Jeff McNeil, who the big club just saw, has an 86% contact rate, 45% groundball rate, and 11 XBHs including two dongs.  Now good CF defense and a 50+ steal pace would changs the calculus even there, but it's worth noting that it's not all sunshine and rainbows even with his production so far.

Sounds a little like Nico where he has a great hit tool and needs to make better swing decisions so he's swinging at pitches he can hit hard and not just because he can hit them?

[Bertz]

55 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I'd probably have Kepley high on my "trade em if someone lives him" list. It isn't that I dislike him, but all of this, added with what we currently have in CF, it feels like he is more expendable. 

Yeah after clearing up some of the infield logjam Kepley sould be next on the sell high list.  To your point it's not totally fair but the existence of PCA does materially impact how much value he can provide here.

29 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Sounds a little like Nico where he has a great hit tool and needs to make better swing decisions so he's swinging at pitches he can hit hard and not just because he can hit them?

I don't know if it's bad swing decisions/passivity or if it's good swing decisions but a swing that's mediocre.

I think you look at what he's doing and you can see paths to something like Brett Gardner, Steven Kwan, or Nico Hoerner.  But I think you can also see what he's doing and imagine some Sal Frelick/Chad Durbin type who has a little success and implodes once pitchers start challening him consistently.

The defense and baserunning provide some floor even in that scenario, but I'm nervous enough about the bat that when I rank guys in the system I definitely have Kepley much closer to 10 than 1 despite the production to date.

[allen6510w]

2 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

I'd probably have Kepley high on my "trade em if someone lives him" list. It isn't that I dislike him, but all of this, added with what we currently have in CF, it feels like he is more expendable. 

I also think he needs to perform better to be on track to be a ML starter.   He's is a C+ type of prospect to me right now with B- the cutoff to be a ML starter.  Obviously, if he duplicates his high-A numbers in AA later this year - he is on track (to me). 

[Outshined_One]

48 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I think you look at what he's doing and you can see paths to something like Brett Gardner, Steven Kwan, or Nico Hoerner.  But I think you can also see what he's doing and imagine some Sal Frelick/Chad Durbin type who has a little success and implodes once pitchers start challening him consistently.

The defense and baserunning provide some floor even in that scenario, but I'm nervous enough about the bat that when I rank guys in the system I definitely have Kepley much closer to 10 than 1 despite the production to date.

It's also worth remembering that Gardner, Kwan, and Nico are the outliers when it comes to potential outcomes for someone like Kepley.  It's not to say that there's no way Kepley could ever meet (or even exceed) their production, but it's more to say that guys with his current profile tend not to do well in the modern era.  His offensive production has also had the benefit of A-ball pitching and defense to this point.

As I mentioned previously, I think a promotion to AA would help answer a lot of these questions, and how much power he actually has will dictate whether he profiles as a useful bench asset or as an everyday CF.