lfg26
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Everything posted by lfg26
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Nice to hear from the best baseball player on the planet at scoring runs in 2026. 🙂
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I'd say there's quite a bit of top-end potential for Numbers 1 through 13. They won't all work out, but there's lots of talent in that top 13. And then there's a solid chance a couple of the guys from the 14 to 20 range manage to make it to the bigs and contribute as well. Not nearly as much top-end potential for those 7 guys though..... at least at this current moment. Prospect lists are always a bit of a crap shoot. I'm just stoked that there's some exciting breakouts going on for some of our guys.
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Yeah Fernando Cruz's K rate is what moved him off of the top 20 for me. Hopefully he can start making more contact as he matures. The big jumps up that list for some of the players are what excites me the most -- Hartshorn, Ramirez(before he was called up), Rojas(currently on fire), Ayers, Geraldo(small sample size tho), Wing, McGwire, Coppola, Caple.... lots of eye-popping numbers in that group. Let's hope they keep progressing. The only sizable let downs have been Long, and the injuries to Wiggins/Conrad (I haven't at all counted them out though). Lots of positive news outside of those 3 bits of negative news. The 2025 draft has the potential to go down as one of the best in recent Cubs history. 6 of the top 7 picks from that draft are on that list. The farm is trending in the right direction imo.
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Based on the prospect ranking i just gave, my opinion is that there could be 9 Cubs in the top 200. We haven't had top 25 prospects in ages, and we haven't had more than like 2-3 top 100 prospects in ages. I honestly think we're starting to stack up quite a bit of talent. However, we're still lacking elite prospects. My overall prospect ranking for each of our top 9 players: 1. Josiah Harsthorn: ~40th top prospect in all of baseball 2. Pedro Ramirez: ~60th top prospect 3. Jefferson Rojas: ~80th top prospect 4. Owen Ayers: ~90th top prospect 5. Kane Kepley: ~95th top prospect 6. Jaxon Wiggins: ~130th top prospect 7. Johan Geraldo: ~175th top prospect 8. Kaleb Wing: ~180th top prospect 9. Ethan Conrad: ~195th top prospect
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Here's my updated list: 1. Josiah Hartshorn RF/1B/DH 2. Pedro Ramirez 3B/2B 3. Jefferson Rojas SS/2B/3B 4. Owen Ayers C 5. Kane Kepley CF/LF/RF 6. Jaxon Wiggins SP 7. Johan Geraldo SS/3B/2B 8. Kaleb Wing SP 9. Ethan Conrad RF/CF 10. Juan Cabada 2B/3B 11. Cole Mathis 1B/3B 12. Mason McGwire SP 13. Pierce Coppola SP 14. James Triantos 2B/OF 15. Riley Martin RP 16. Brooks Caple SP 17. Jonathon Long 1B/3B/DH 18. Dominick Reid SP 19. Ty Southisene 2B 20. Jaims Martinez SS
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He should still be promoted. You don't want to hold down a 22 year old with elite talents for too long. If they're a teenager, sure, maybe you don't want to hurt their confidence by pushing them too quickly. But if an older player is showing elite instincts, my opinion is that you shouldn't shield them from failure. Let's see if they're legit or not, as soon as possible. Because if they're 24-25 when they first reach AAA, their momentum/dreams might be too damaged for them to be a productive MLB player at that point. I'm a big fan of looking at prospects from a psychological perspective. BTW, Craig/OutshinedOne/CaliforniaRaisin, I've read damn near every message and post on this website for the last 20+ years. Even back in the days of Goony and Rawaction. I always have just been a lurker.... until now. 🙂
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I gotta call out some of the player comparisons I've seen here to Kepley that just don't make any sense. Kepley's elite traits are plate discipline and baserunning, along with a solid hit tool and above average defense (and below average slugging). Jeff McNeil: well below average plate discipline and baserunning (probably superior hit tool, not a very good comp imo) Brett Gardner: OK at drawing BBs, but strikes out a ton (superior slugging) Steven Kwan: pretty good comp, but only above average plate discipline and baserunning (Kepley might be better at both) Nico: below average plate discipline (probably superior hit tool + defense) Sal Frelick: below average plate discipline I feel like any good comp for Kepley has to have above average plate discipline and baserunning at the very least. Kepley isn't like McNeil and Nico where their OBP is almost all from their hits. That leaves Steven Kwan as the best comp I've seen mentioned. I think maybe like Dexter Fowler with less power, and more speed isn't too far off. Or Rickey Henderson LITE.... I said LITE!!! ....I know he's not near Ricky Henderson. lol
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More fun Kepley stats: -1st in all MiLB with 62 runs (2nd place has 58 runs) -4th (tied) in all MiLB with 51BB -Out of the 33 players in MiLB with at least 40BB, Kepley has the least amount of K (33) ...and Hartshorn has the 2nd least (40BB vs 36K)!! -3rd (tied) in all MiLB with 31 SB -Only 1 CS.... Here's the SB/CS for the 3 other players with at least 31 SB: (36/12, 36/7, 31/8) -13th in all MiLB (min 200 PA) with a .439 OBP I know I'm cherry picking a bit, but I enjoy players that have truly elite elements to their game. And no, I'm not related to Kepley or anything.... I had him 5th in my recent ranking. lol
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I feel like you guys might be underrating how elite his plate discipline and baserunning has been. All of the concerns are duly noted and also a bit worrisome. Incredible plate discipline and baserunning might not be quite as sexy as slugging, but if you're talking about an OBP over .400 and 50+ steals added to good defense, then you might have something worthwhile. I've been trying to think of the best comp, and honestly, I think Ricky Henderson LITE isn't too far off. Maybe a bit less speed and quite a bit less power, but I really love the OBP and steals the man has been showing off. I agree that he could be good trade bait because we obviously have PCA, but I think he might be much more valuable than the return we would get for him at this point (without him getting serious prospect ranking status yet). Who knows.... an outfield of Kepley in left, PCA in center, and Hartshorn in right has fun potential for sure.
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Fun thought: How many players have managed to have more steals, and more walks, than strikeouts? I know it's just the low minors, but Kepley has 46 steals, and 72 BB, to just 46 Ks right now. And he had more steals and BBs than Ks in college.
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I initially felt the same way. Kepley is a sneaky prospect because he doesn't have much power and he's a bit older, but I've come around on him a lot. His floor seems extremely high for me... College: .464 OBP; 136 BB vs 71 K; 87 SB vs 8 CS; solid .469 SLG; i've heard above average defense Minors so far: .454 OBP; 72 BB vs 46 K; 46 SB vs 5 CS; solid .406 SLG; i've heard above average defense -65+ grade plate discipline -65+ grade baserunning -50+ grade hit tool -50+ grade fielding That all makes for an extremely high floor player. He compares quite well to Kevin McGonigle IMO.
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So far I'm feeling quite good about the 2025 draft. Out of the first 7 picks, 5 of them are performing well. The early returns on Kepley, Reid, Wing, Hartshorn, and Coppola have been great. For me, the draft grades so far would be (grades based on expected value for how high each pick was, as well as their signing bonuses): 1) Conrad: C-/Incomplete 2) Kepley: A 3) Reid: B+ 4) Wing: A 5) Snell: D 6) Hartshorn: A+ 7) Coppola: A Conrad is still a huge question mark. Even without Conrad though, the draft already seems like a win. I feel like Kepley, Wing, and Hartshorn might be hanging out on some top 100 lists by the end of the year (I know Hartshorn already is). Thoughts?
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Pedro RamirezJefferson RojasJaxon WigginsJosiah HartshornKane KepleyKevin AlcantaraJonathon LongCole MathisEthan ConradOwen AyersJostin FlorentinoJames TriantosBrooks CapleJuan CabadaAngel CepedaDominick ReidKaleb WingTy SouthiseneBrandon BirdsellGrant Kipp
