lfg26

I like this. I think Hartshorn, Kepley, and Ayers have proven themselves to be top 100 prospects. I thought the Cubs might have 5 top 100 prospects with Rojas and Ramirez included. Rojas traded, Ramirez graduated... that leaves these 3 guys. Although, I'd have all 3 in the 35-65 range personally. Maybe something like: 35. Hartshorn 50. Kepley 65. Ayers If I'm Jed, those are the 3 untouchables for the near future. Hartshorn has a pretty clear path to either RF, 1B, or DH... or a combination of those (probably 2028). Kepley has a pretty clear path to LF, and backup CF (mid/late 2027). And Ayers has a very clear path to share catching duties with Miguel Amaya (start of 2027). Cade Townsend, Jaxon Wiggins, Ethan Conrad, Caden Sorrell, and Myles Bailey should be close to untouchable, but their performance, and the team's needs might make them available if it there's good value to be had.

It's nice to see our top 3 prospects ranking at the top of non-hitting categories too... and voted that way by other minor league managers. Definitely a good sign.

but i still don't care for his swing decisions?? i feel like once he hits AAA, the pitchers will just start throwing the ball at his head until he retires from baseball. /s hahahaha .....sorry for the jokes, but it's been kinda brutal standing up for Kepley on here. There's still a chance he ends up as a homeless person's Ricky Henderson, but I'm loving him proving the doubters wrong in such emphatic ways. 🙂

I could see Matt Shaw and Kevin Alcantara holding it down in LF, and then Kepley potentially taking the position by all star break 2027 if he continues like he has. So many outfield questions for the Cubs next year though with Seiya and Happ's contracts expiring. Personally, I think it's time to move on from Happ (much love to the man tho), but I'm not so sure about Seiya. The best one out of Hartshorn/Conrad/Sorrell won't be ready until September 2027 at the absolute earliest.... and those are the 3 guys I see as potentially being in the cards as the long-term RF solution. Ideally, Seiya signs a 1-year deal to showcase for a big contract, but that probably won't happen.

I knew even saying the name Rickey Henderson would be called out, maybe even rightly. However, I said "a poor man's Ricky Henderson" which is very different. He could end up being a "very poor man's Ricky Henderson" who never sees a day in the bigs. The way Kepley plays the game is a bit similar to Ricky, that's all. And it really isn't similar to Nico's game at all. In terms of WAR, I'd say Nico will probably always be superior to Kepley in terms of BA, having a lower k%, and defensive WAR. I'm just trying to get people on the same page as to what type of player Kepley is. Not trying to disrespect anyone. Just trying to make sure that people are noticing some of the major strengths of Kepley's game that may not be obvious.

He has more power than Nico, and quite a few other guys in MLB. Why don't those guys only get meatballs??

Kyle Hendricks didn't turn out that bad. If I'm remembering correctly, Hendricks never could quite get above like 9th or 10th in terms of his ranking in terms of Cubs prospects, all because of his low velo. Not saying that Florentino is gonna be Hendricks, but I am saying that it has happened. Low velo pitchers with great deception/pitch shapes/control are not gonna have anything given to them, but if they continue to get guys out as they go up the ranks, that's all that really should matter.

Kepley scoring runs?? Doubtful... lol

Once again, Nico is a terrible comp for Kepley. Nico has always had a well-below average BB% even if his BB/K is good. That's a really big deal. The difference between Nico's BB% and Kepley's BB% equates to probably 75-100 more points of OPS. So, Nico's standard .700 OPS turns into an .800 OPS which is an enormous difference in value. Also, Kepley has Nico beat in terms of projecting his baserunning. Nico's career college OPS: .759 Nico's career MiLB OPS: .779 Kepley's career college OPS: .932 Kepley's career MiLB OPS: .879 I love Nico, but he's a terrible comp for Kepley.

You mentioned defense and speed. Which is indeed how a lot of 4th outfielder types profile. But you completely left out BB% and BB/K. That's where he's absolutely, positively elite. Well, along with his baserunning. He's in the 99th percentile in all of MiLB in terms of SB, SB/CS, BB%, and BB/K. That's what I think you guys are missing. I understand that he'll probably lose some of that advantage as the competition gets better, but to not even mention it as a positive is crazy. If you wanna have a good idea of how important a high BB% combined with a great BB/K ratio can be, go look at the WAR numbers that Steven Kwan puts up, and the WAR that McGonigle is putting up this year. That's the elephant in the room that I keep seeing missed by you guys.

Yeah one of the "problems" with Kepley is that he lacks good comps for us to think about. I don't think Brett Bateman or Ty Southisene are great comps (zero SLG for them, and just levels worse at baserunning, and BB/K), even though I wish them well. In another thread, Steven Kwan came up and I think that's pretty solid, although I see a potentially higher ceiling for Kepley. The other comps I've come up with are a poor man's Ricky Henderson, or Kevin McGonigle with less SLG and defense WAR, but more steals. I guess I don't hate "a rich man's Brett Bateman". lol

Kepley with 15-20 homer power is a consistent MLB all-star. And projecting that many homers for him definitely isn't that big of a stretch. I'd love it if Kepley unlocks .450+ slugging at the MLB level, which he might.... however, he's so good at everything else that it seems strange to have that be the stat that gets him over the top. I feel like all the Kepley haters on NSB might have to indeed eat their words within the next couple years.... whether he's on the Cubs or on another MLB team. Personally, if he continues to progress like he has, I want him as our starting LF for the next decade. The hate I see for him on here is honestly incredibly confusing. I understand wanting more SLG potential for an outfielder. I understand that he's never been a blue-chip prospect. He's got such a unique and effective game though. He just keeps proving people wrong over and over.... I love those prospects.

I feel like his ceiling is also pretty high considering how he's starting to hit for more power. To me, his game just screams: "HIGH WAR player that has the ability to provide good value even when his bat is slumping". PCA's floor has always been very high because of his 70+ grade defense and baserunning. Kepley's floor includes 70+ grade plate discipline/OBP and baserunning. Kepley even looks to have a bit of an edge on PCA in baserunning too, which is an insane thing to say. PCA has that 10+ WAR ceiling though. Kepley could potentially end up as Happ's replacement, and a guy that consistently puts up 4-6 WAR even if he only hits .250. A leadoff hitter with a .400 OBP and 50+ steals is such a useful player to have, especially with good defense. He's a guy you want on your team, and that you would hate on the opposing team. He's probably super annoying to play against.... just driving up the pitch count of your pitcher, and stealing every base imaginable.

Come to think of it, if all 11 of those guys are healthy and throwing well when the playoffs come, Counsell is gonna have a lot of interesting options for the pen. Options that may or may not work..... but, there will be options nonetheless. That said, there may very well be freak injuries to perhaps all of these guys in the next month, just because that's apparently what happens these days.

I was thinking how funny/sad/interesting the starting pitching situation is with the Cubs. Now, after the deadline, I'm gonna try and rank our starting pitching depth (even though it's pretty impossible with all the injuries and variables).... healthy and likely a playoff starter (ranking 1 thru 4 is a tossup) other healthy (?) options might be healthy soon 1. Kevin Gausman RHP 1. Javier Assad 1. Ben Brown 2. Matthew Boyd LHP 2. Braxton Garrett 2. Edward Cabrera 3. Clay Holmes RHP 3. David Peterson 3. Justin Steele 4. Shota Imanaga LHP 4. Colin Rea That's 11 potential starters for the playoffs. Hopefully, everyone can get healthy and it truly becomes the best 4 out of those 11 starting in the playoffs. Momentum is going to be a big indicator for who pitches in the playoffs. Ben Brown is a huge dark horse for us (maybe Steele as well but I don't want to get my hopes up). Let the best men win!!