Minor League Musings

[sneakypower]

just a minor note but those other orgs. win playoff series sometimes

and have currently top-10 and not bottom-10 farm systems

[craig]

Yeah, Jason, agree to disagree a little!  :):). (Fun to discuss!)  Of course, any low prospect, it's going to depend on whether they can actually hit, and most won't.  So from that sense, Bretower, Cruz, Rosario, Mathis, Hartshorn, Conrad, you can kinda all throw them into the same "well, if they hit" basket.  I'm just suggesting that a senior-sign 8th-round sub-slot DH who never hit for actual game-power in college, I'd put him into a different "well, if they hit" basket than a 3rd-round 18-year-old with ceiling!!!  For Cruz, you posted a scouting report basically written up from when he was 17.  (They had no basis to change it entering his 2025 debut season.).  Part of D+D is that 17-year-olds can make develop, perhaps more easily than 23-year-olds.  

Heh heh, part of my mindset is that I have pretty strong respect for Kantro's drafting!  :):)  When he spends a 3rd on a guy, or spends two million (Hartshorn) or $1.6 (Wing), I immediately put them into very different baskets than sub-slot senior-sign type guys.  I've developed a somewhat blind faith in Kantro's pick logic!  :):)

I'd also kinda differentiate an ancient back-of-bullpen rental like Rodgers from Siroka.  Very different values.  Obviously Siroka instantly got reinjured, and ended up being worthless.  But Hoyer saw him as a rotation starter in his 20's, who might help reach and succeed in the 2025 playoffs, and who might well be an extension candidate *if* we liked what we saw and he liked his experience here pitching in front of our defense.  Again, I'm exaggerating the nuance, but I don't think Siroka/Rodgers were any more equivalent as acquisitions than Cruz, Rosario, or Bretower were as trade pieces.  

Just as tangent:  I didn't complain about the Rosario trade at the time.  

[Post Count Padder]

And FG released their Top Nationals prospects today. Cruz at 4

 

Tool Grades (Present/Future)

Hit	Raw Power	Game Power	Run	Fielding	Throw
20/40	50/60	25/60	50/50	35/60	55

 

 

Quote

Cruz is shaping up to be a lower calorie Junior Caminero, where the bat speed and weaponized power are enough to really value him as a prospect even though he still has some hit tool risk due to breaking ball identification issues. He moves into the Top 100 with this update.

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

3 hours ago, craig said:

I get the point.  I do think Cruz is in a different world from Rosario, much less Bretower.  Bretower was an ancient K-machine whose contact problems had been sustained over many years, and whose contact problems were too severe to even hit many HR's in college.  Totally different.  Rosario played low-A at age 20, and had K'd almost 40% of his AB at age 20 in Myrtle over a full season.  His K-problem was pretty well established.   Cruz has just barely turned 19, is at A+, did not have notable K problem in rookie last year, and has only 51 AB this season.  Completely different prospect.  For sure, K's may end up killing him, they do for most prospects.  But the SSS does not have nearly the same red flags as for old-guy-no-game-power Bretower, or for older Rosario with time-established K-problem red flags.  Cruz was a way better prospect then, and now.  

To me, the red flag on Cruz is the 60% contact rate this season.

The Tatis and Caminero comps seem far too aggressive over 3 weeks of success in A-ball.

(And the Cubs should still be having internal discussions and clean up their internal scouting about how they undervalued a prospect that BA and FG can so quickly hype up.)