2015 Cubs Positivity Thread

[sneakypower]

part of that differential was 'achieved' with 2 weeks of Mike Olt / Bad Mendy occupying Bryant's spot and about a month's worth of Schlitter and Coke

 

replace the two gas cans with even replacement-level pen arms and that paints a rosier picture; this mostly tells us that bullpen construction wasn't handled super optimally in the offseason

[RynoRules]

part of that differential was 'achieved' with 2 weeks of Mike Olt / Bad Mendy occupying Bryant's spot and about a month's worth of Schlitter and Coke

 

replace the two gas cans with even replacement-level pen arms and that paints a rosier picture; this mostly tells us that bullpen construction wasn't handled super optimally in the offseason

 

http://i.imgur.com/dwVdKgx.gif

[Clem Fandango]

So apparently the Cubs run differential so far is only +4. Does that mean I should feel positive because they sit 5 games above .500, winning a bunch of close games, or should I be worried that we're due some regression in terms of wins & losses?

 

The Cubs are 12-9 in one run ballgames this year. So they've played in 21 total game that were decided by one run. That's most in the majors. We've joked about how there seems like there's never an easy win this year. There really hasn't been.

[Clem Fandango]

In fun news, Dexter Fowler has matched his SB output from last season already. He had 11 stolen bases in 15 attempts in all of 2014 (116 games). He's got 11 stolen bases in 15 attempts this season in 41 games.

[PackLandVA]

And I believe the Cubs are leading MLB in stolen bases, or very near the top. When was the last time that happened???

[weis21]

And I believe the Cubs are leading MLB in stolen bases, or very near the top. When was the last time that happened???

The last time [the Cubs] led the National League in steals was in 1939 when they stole 61. Of course there were only 124 games in a season and eight teams in the National League.

 

http://cubbiescrib.com/2015/04/30/chicago-cubs-leading-the-national-league-in-stolen-bases/

[Little Slide Rooter]

Going forward, how realistic are these relatively realistic comparisons?

 

1. CF: Alberto Almora: Cameron Maybin* .247/.311/.367 37 HR 9.5 WAR (9 seasons)

2. 2B Addison Russell: Ryne Sandberg- .285/.344/.452 282 HR 67.5 WAR (16 seasons)

3. 1B Anthony Rizzo: Jeff Bagwell- .297/.408/.540 449 HR 79.6 WAR (15 seasons)

4. LF Kris Bryant: Dave Winfield- .283/.353/.475 465 HR 63.8 WAR (22 seasons)

5. C Kyle Schwarber: AJ Pierzynski** .281/.320/.423 180 HR 22.5 WAR (18 seasons)

6. RF: Jorge Soler: Joe Carter***- .259/.306/.464 396 HR 19.3 WAR (16 seasons)

7. 3B Javy Baez: Chris Sabo****- .268/.326/.445 116 HR 16.4 WAR (9 seasons)

8. SS: Starlin Castro: Tony Fernandez*****- .288/.347/.399 94 HR 45 WAR (17 seasons)

 

What I did here was come up with some names off the top of my head, then looked up their career lines. Some I agreed with more than others. But keep in mind, these are realistic-ish comps, not ceilings. And we could realistically have most, if not all of these guys through their primes. I would very much enjoy this team.

 

*

I don't know. I guess?

 

**

With 90% less douchebaggery. I so wanted to go with Piazza here, but couldn't bring myself to use him as a realistic comp.

 

***

I always thought Joe Carter was better. never realized how much he hated to walk

 

****

So difficult to pinpoint Starlin. There was a time when I would have said Jose Reyes with the utmost confidence.

 

*****

I think we can at least agree that the Gary Sheffield ship has sailed.

 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I don't see Baez having that much OBP, or Soler having that much power, but otherwise I can see those.

[Little Slide Rooter]

part of that differential was 'achieved' with 2 weeks of Mike Olt / Bad Mendy occupying Bryant's spot and about a month's worth of Schlitter and Coke

 

replace the two gas cans with even replacement-level pen arms and that paints a rosier picture; this mostly tells us that bullpen construction wasn't handled super optimally in the offseason

 

But aren't most bullpens composed of maybe 2-3 reliables, 2 more somewhat reliables, and the rest a revolving door?

 

To start the season, we had 3 very strong options in Rondon, Strop, and Ramirez, with Grimm on the DL. Jackson has been mostly consistent as well, and Motte was a nice reclamation, as was Coke as a last minute flier. Schlitter was serviceable enough last year, so it made sense to give him the first crack at the last spot. With Rivero, Rosscup, Parker, Britton, and Jokisch, we had some decent depth.

 

Trouble wasn't so much the pen's makeup as starters being pulled too early, and entrusting the wrong guys at the wrong time.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

part of that differential was 'achieved' with 2 weeks of Mike Olt / Bad Mendy occupying Bryant's spot and about a month's worth of Schlitter and Coke

 

replace the two gas cans with even replacement-level pen arms and that paints a rosier picture; this mostly tells us that bullpen construction wasn't handled super optimally in the offseason

 

Well, good thing we've got our magic orb that tells us which marginal players will turn in really bad performances in any given two months, so there's no chance of having any bad players again.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I don't see Baez having that much OBP, or Soler having that much power, but otherwise I can see those.

 

My next thought for Soler was Jose Guillen, with more 20-25 HR power with a higher BA.

 

As for Javy, I toyed with everyone from Jose Hernandez to Joe Randa to Melvin Mora. Perhaps Hernandez would be the most realistic comp given his current resume, not that that would by any means be the worst thing, especially from a 7 hitter) but I like to think there's more in store. Just not enough so to upgrade to, say, Ron Santo or Scott Rolen.

[sneakypower]

part of that differential was 'achieved' with 2 weeks of Mike Olt / Bad Mendy occupying Bryant's spot and about a month's worth of Schlitter and Coke

 

replace the two gas cans with even replacement-level pen arms and that paints a rosier picture; this mostly tells us that bullpen construction wasn't handled super optimally in the offseason

 

Well, good thing we've got our magic orb that tells us which marginal players will turn in really bad performances in any given two months, so there's no chance of having any bad players again.

i have a magic orb that hates Phil Coke, Jason Motte, Mike Olt, Mike Baxter forever

[Little Slide Rooter]

part of that differential was 'achieved' with 2 weeks of Mike Olt / Bad Mendy occupying Bryant's spot and about a month's worth of Schlitter and Coke

 

replace the two gas cans with even replacement-level pen arms and that paints a rosier picture; this mostly tells us that bullpen construction wasn't handled super optimally in the offseason

 

Well, good thing we've got our magic orb that tells us which marginal players will turn in really bad performances in any given two months, so there's no chance of having any bad players again.

i have a magic orb that hates Phil Coke, Jason Motte, Mike Olt, Mike Baxter forever

 

Mine will have forgotten that Mike Baxter exists by this time next week.

[North]

Two positive trends worth watching are the major mechanical adjustments by Lake and Szczur. Lake got rid of his timing mechanism/hand twitch thing. Julius lowered his hands by a good foot it looks like. Lake's adjustments has led to a 180 degree turnaround in discipline. Julius' adjustments has made him mini Babe Ruth (that's for you, Fontenot).

[Guest]

In case you guys had forgotten, #wearegood

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

[Guest]

Carrie Muskat ‏@CarrieMuskat 11m11 minutes ago

#Cubs bullpen has collectively posted 1.79 ERA and .194 batting average against with 0 blown saves since May 23. it's 4th lowest ERA in MLB

[Andy]

Carrie Muskat ‏@CarrieMuskat 11m11 minutes ago

#Cubs bullpen has collectively posted 1.79 ERA and .194 batting average against with 0 blown saves since May 23. it's 4th lowest ERA in MLB

Arbitary endpoint aside, good to see some semi-sustained bullpen not-suckiness.

[Guest]

FOX Sports: MLB ‏@MLBONFOX 7m7 minutes ago

New Playoff Odds Power Rankings

 

1 #STLCards 95.4%

2 #Dodgers 93.1%

3 #Nats 70.4%

4 #Cubs 68.7%

5 #Yankees 59%

[Cubswin11]

FOX Sports: MLB ‏@MLBONFOX 7m7 minutes ago

New Playoff Odds Power Rankings

 

1 #STLCards 95.4%*

2 #Dodgers 93.1%

3 #Nats 70.4%

4 #Cubs 68.7%

5 #Yankees 59%

FTFY

[Banedon]

FOX Sports: MLB ‏@MLBONFOX 7m7 minutes ago

New Playoff Odds Power Rankings

 

1 #STLCards 95.4%

2 #Dodgers 93.1%

3 #Nats 70.4%

4 #Cubs 68.7%

5 #Yankees 59%

 

Why are the Cubs chances better than the PIrates?

[Cubswin11]

FOX Sports: MLB ‏@MLBONFOX 7m7 minutes ago

New Playoff Odds Power Rankings

 

1 #STLCards 95.4%

2 #Dodgers 93.1%

3 #Nats 70.4%

4 #Cubs 68.7%

5 #Yankees 59%

 

Why are the Cubs chances better than the PIrates?

Probably because of projected performances and remaining SOS?

[Guest]

FOX Sports: MLB ‏@MLBONFOX 7m7 minutes ago

New Playoff Odds Power Rankings

 

1 #STLCards 95.4%

2 #Dodgers 93.1%

3 #Nats 70.4%

4 #Cubs 68.7%

5 #Yankees 59%

 

Why are the Cubs chances better than the PIrates?

 

projections

[Guest]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/rianwatt/status/613351288395419649[/tweet]

[SouthSideRyan]

Sploosh

[Guest]

Sploosh

 

what sucks is we're the only team on there where you almost have to cut that number in half for getting into the actual playoffs :(