Random Cubs Musings: Minor League Edition

[davell]

We're going to be making a few small trades, I see no way around it. Look at Iowa's situation from a position player standpoint.

 

C Lopez Baker

1B Lars Anderson or Rohan

2B Alcantara Watkins

SS Javy

3B Villanueva

LF Vitters, Ha

CF Brett Jackson, Szczur

RF Kalish, Silva or Andreoli

DH Olt(if not in bigs)

 

I guess you can keep Andreoli and/or Silva down at Tennessee, but that still leaves a logjam, not to mention they're older and deserve a promotion. My guess is they'll try and garner some interest in Brett during ST, maybe he'd bring back a Tony Campana type return from someone who thinks he's fixable? He definitely would get claimed anyway, even Keith Law said that and he hates him. Vitters is likely in the same boat, all the way down to he'd get claimed by someone. Not as sure someone could be enticed to TRADE for him though.

 

If Olt makes the big league club, it opens up a bit, but it's something to pay attention to, there's too many guys here for the AB's that they all need.

[SouthSideRyan]

Does McDonald have a Japan option in his contract? We still need another right handed of don't we? I assumed that would be him or Vitters. If Olt doesn't make the team doesn't Watkins pretty much have to? Although that leaves us with needing somebody to backup the middle if at AAA

[davell]

Does McDonald have a Japan option in his contract? We still need another right handed of don't we? I assumed that would be him or Vitters. If Olt doesn't make the team doesn't Watkins pretty much have to? Although that leaves us with needing somebody to backup the middle if at AAA

 

I kind of wrote Watkins off when we signed Ryan Roberts. My guess are our reserves at the major league level will be Kottaras, Roberts, Valbuena(if Olt makes the team anyway), Ruggiano, and Murphy. If Olt misses, I guess Watkins or McDonald(do we still have him?) makes it.

 

My guess is IF Watkins made the ML roster, then Silva takes a utility role in Iowa.

[Guest]

Does McDonald have a Japan option in his contract? We still need another right handed of don't we? I assumed that would be him or Vitters. If Olt doesn't make the team doesn't Watkins pretty much have to? Although that leaves us with needing somebody to backup the middle if at AAA

 

Roberts could take the place of either Olt or Vitters/RH OF.

[SouthSideRyan]

Forgot about Roberts. McDonald was re-signed to a minor league deal early in the offseason, he's an NRI. Ha, and after looking at the NRI list, we have a lot of AAAA OFers on the list. Obviously the majority will be cut, but you've got:

 

McDonald

Coghlan

Cunningham

Kalish

Maier

Wells

 

who could snag an OF spot in Iowa

[wekim81]

My wild guesses at rotations until someone gets hurt/we hear new news:

 

AAA: Hendricks/Ramirez/Grimm/Alb. Cabrera/Jokisch (This assumes we don’t carry Cabrera on the big league roster and he gets thru waivers. Don’t have Rusin here because as of now he’s our 5th starter. If and when we sign another arm, he’d slot in here and Jokisch would be heading to the group of about 15 bullpen arms for this squad)

 

AA: Edwards/Johnson/Pineyro/Black/Beeler (I don’t see them promoting Beeler to AAA Iowa to start – look at the mess above)

 

Hi-A: Zastryzny/Skulina/B.Wells/T.Scott/Heesch (I suppose Peralta is an option here)

 

Lo-A: Blackburn/Maples/Torrez/Paniagua/Pugliese (Maples is a wild card. Who knows. He could be at Daytona. Paniagua’s a big wildcard too)

 

The top arms staying at extended ST would then be Underwood, Leal, Conway, Carlos Rodriguez, Tyler Clifton, Ryan McNeil.

 

Thoughts?

[davell]

Pretty close to what I had. The more I think about it though, is if they started Pierce at KC, it's not likely we'll see Zastryzny or Skulina skip. Paniagua, based on age, would appear to me, to be the better option, IF he proves he's able to handle it.

 

There will be lots of piggybacking going on in KC, I think Frazier, Masek, Underwood, maybe Sam Wilson, all make that roster.

[Clem Fandango]

Posted this in the Random Baseball Musiings thread but no one has apparently noticed it, thought the MiLB forum could get some use out of it:

 

This was posted on Reddit. Pretty amazing:

 

I sync'd up about 70,000 videos with my PITCHfx search tool. You can now run ad-hoc queries against PITCHfx data and watch the video if it's available. For instance, here is all home runs hit on sliders since 2008 when the page loads click a players name and there will be a TV icon on the far right, click that. Here is all home runs hit on fastballs faster than 95MPH.

 

Edit: For those interested I also run a website called mlbfarm.com. It's more minor league stuff but has player spray charts/heatmaps/videos etc... Here's a player profile on George Springer as an example

 

That last part is particularly handy and interesting.

[sneakypower]

the Baez page is hysterical

 

using the May 17th - end of season (1000 OPS) split, Baez had 32% HR:FB, which is 2008 Ryan Howard territory, and the spray chart looks like a horrible case of the shingles- just spots everywhere with no real sense of order

[squally1313]

way to early to write off Olt even if he doesn't make the team out of ST

 

He's 25 years old and this team sucks. If he can't make it, he's not going anywhere. Throw him in AAA and let him find ABs where he can, but there's no reason to worry about a logjam.

 

I'm not ready to write off his career because he has 60 bad at bats in Arizona in March. Yeah he's 25, but it's not like he's running out of service time. He put up better numbers than Rizzo at every stop until AAA. Maybe last year was caused by his eye issues, maybe he actually sucks. But if he says it's not an issue now, so give him a few hundred at bats somewhere before making him a AAAA player. Cut 33 year old Ryan Roberts, have Watkins back up the middle infield for a few months (Barney can play SS in a pinch, and hopefully by July everyone makes room for Javy and Arismendy).

[jersey cubs fan]

I'm not ready to write off his career because he has 60 bad at bats in Arizona in March.

 

It wouldn't be about 60 at bats in March.

[squally1313]

I'm not ready to write off his career because he has 60 bad at bats in Arizona in March.

 

It wouldn't be about 60 at bats in March.

 

So it'd be about the last 400 PAs with the Rangers and Cubs AAA teams (.745 OPS with the Rangers, .207 BAPIP with the Cubs) completely overshadowing the prior 1,000 MILB PAs? Even with a widely reported medical issue going on? Look, maybe his eyes/head will never be normal again, and if that's the case, that sucks for him. But that's something the medical team has to decide, not Theo looking at him for 3 weeks next month and declaring him broken. If he's healthy...he needs to have a shot somewhere. The upside is too high.

[jersey cubs fan]

I'm not ready to write off his career because he has 60 bad at bats in Arizona in March.

 

It wouldn't be about 60 at bats in March.

 

So it'd be about the last 400 PAs with the Rangers and Cubs AAA teams (.745 OPS with the Rangers, .207 BAPIP with the Cubs) completely overshadowing the prior 1,000 MILB PAs? Even with a widely reported medical issue going on? Look, maybe his eyes/head will never be normal again, and if that's the case, that sucks for him. But that's something the medical team has to decide, not Theo looking at him for 3 weeks next month and declaring him broken. If he's healthy...he needs to have a shot somewhere. The upside is too high.

 

I didn't say cut the guy. The odds are he's not going to do anything of value. The point is you don't need to fret over a "logjam" at 3B in AAA. If he can't make this team, he is not a priority.

[Guest]

I'm not ready to write off his career because he has 60 bad at bats in Arizona in March.

 

It wouldn't be about 60 at bats in March.

 

So it'd be about the last 400 PAs with the Rangers and Cubs AAA teams (.745 OPS with the Rangers, .207 BAPIP with the Cubs) completely overshadowing the prior 1,000 MILB PAs? Even with a widely reported medical issue going on? Look, maybe his eyes/head will never be normal again, and if that's the case, that sucks for him. But that's something the medical team has to decide, not Theo looking at him for 3 weeks next month and declaring him broken. If he's healthy...he needs to have a shot somewhere. The upside is too high.

 

I didn't say cut the guy. The odds are he's not going to do anything of value. The point is you don't need to fret over a "logjam" at 3B in AAA. If he can't make this team, he is not a priority.

They have a DH in AAA. It's a non-issue. Anyway, I think Olt is on the big club baring an injury or a complete flop in ST.

[craig]

..They have a DH in AAA. It's a non-issue. Anyway, I think Olt is on the big club baring an injury or a complete flop in ST.

 

I think it's very unlikely that Olt makes the big club, I think they'll want him to experience some AAA success and rebuilt some confidence, plus have some at least small sample of success above the AA level. (He's never done anything good above AA.)

 

Otherwise, I completely agree. Between 3B, 1B, DH, and perhaps some LF, I think there are plenty of ways to get both Villanueva and Olt plenty of AB. And while I'm not as sold on Olt's defense as many posters are, I don't think his 3B defense is really the issue. If he shows he can hit, then he's a factor. So getting AB while DH-ing or playing 1B/LF will work just fine.

 

And some time-sharing would not be forever. If he's doing great, then he'll get called up. If not, we won't care how few AB he gets. So having him start at Iowa won't badly impact Villanueva's usage.

 

I don't really see much concern with Iowa being overloaded and short on AB's. Career minor leaguers like Rohan, Anderson, Watkins, Ha, Andreoli, they'll take what they get, or get sent to AA. If Vitters and Jackson both magically turn up healthy and good, terrific. Otherwise, the OF seems like just a grab-bag of whomever.

[pitchcs]

If Olt really impresses in ST, I don't see how you send him to AAA...just may as well see what you have with this type of team.

[mul21]

If Olt really impresses in ST, I don't see how you send him to AAA...just may as well see what you have with this type of team.

 

As much as I hate using a ST performance to evaluate a guy, in this case if he's hitting, he can see the ball and has answered the biggest question hanging over him. There's nobody of importance he'd be taking PT away from, so if he can see and he hits in ST, I have no issue with him breaking camp with the ML team to see what he's got.

[Guest]

Isn't there only a DH in AL home parks in AAA? Or has that changed?

 

I could swear I remember guys rehabbing in A+ because that was the highest level with a full-time DH.

[rawaction]

Isn't there only a DH in AL home parks in AAA? Or has that changed?

 

I could swear I remember guys rehabbing in A+ because that was the highest level with a full-time DH.

 

You're correct.

[Guest]

Isn't there only a DH in AL home parks in AAA? Or has that changed?

 

I could swear I remember guys rehabbing in A+ because that was the highest level with a full-time DH.

 

Was going to post that yesterday but apparently never hit submit. Yeah, you only have the DH in AL parks at AA and AAA.

[craig]

Thanks, guys, good to remember. That would limit some of the discretionary AB's the manager has to allocate.

 

Still, between 3B/1B/LF/DH, I think there should be enough for both Olt and Villanueva. If Lars Anderson or Szczur lose some 1B/LF AB's, that's just the way it goes.

[ctcf]

It's going to be really weird having Iowa be by far and away the most exciting team in the system to start the year. I'm so used to it being a baseball career hospice.

[Guest]

It's going to be really weird having Iowa be by far and away the most exciting team in the system to start the year. I'm so used to it being a baseball career hospice.

 

It's pretty nice that at some point this year, all of the big 4 should be above AA. Finally.

 

I'd be shocked but it would be awesome if they deemed Almora ready to start this year in Tennessee.

[jersey cubs fan]

It's going to be really weird having Iowa be by far and away the most exciting team in the system to start the year. I'm so used to it being a baseball career hospice.

 

It's pretty nice that at some point this year, all of the big 4 should be above AA. Finally.

 

I'd be shocked but it would be awesome if they deemed Almora ready to start this year in Tennessee.

 

Do you mean above A+? I didn't think all four were slated for AAA or the majors this season.

[Guest]

It's going to be really weird having Iowa be by far and away the most exciting team in the system to start the year. I'm so used to it being a baseball career hospice.

 

It's pretty nice that at some point this year, all of the big 4 should be above AA. Finally.

 

I'd be shocked but it would be awesome if they deemed Almora ready to start this year in Tennessee.

 

Do you mean above A+? I didn't think all four were slated for AAA or the majors this season.

 

yeah, I worded that really poorly. Meant at AA or higher.