Random Cubs Musings: Minor League Edition

[Guest]

What a silly tangent.

 

Soler is an elite talent with international pro experience, an advanced approach at the plate, and who probably already would have a couple hundred AA PAs if not for an injury. The thought that he could start at AA, get promoted, and then play well enough to earn a call-up after Iowa's season is over is hardly fantasy.

 

On the other hand, Soler doesn't have eye-popping numbers, hasn't actually faced AA pitching, and his injury concerns are more of a weight than others because he needed/needs the playing time. No one should be expecting a huge jump either.

 

We're talking about an extremely talented prospect with very little MiLB experience. Eye rolling in any direction about his timetable is dumb.

 

Pick a side so someone can yell at you, you wuss.

 

He kind of did take my side, you CLOD!

[imb]

When it comes to Soler, I want to believe he's the next Dawson/Sosa, so I like to remind myself that he was considered a much better prospect than Puig when they were both at similar levels of "haven't played in a while, out of shape, in a new country" and that when Puig got healthy and got his legs under him, he went primal on the league.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

To be honest, I have the least faith in Soler out of the big four. I don't really know why, either.

[Tryptamine]

To be honest, I have the least faith in Soler out of the big four. I don't really know why, either.

 

You're not alone. I had him behind Edwards on my personal prospect top 10.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

To be honest, I have the least faith in Soler out of the big four. I don't really know why, either.

 

You're not alone. I had him behind Edwards on my personal prospect top 10.

 

Same. I hope I'm not racist.

[Cubswin11]

To be honest, I have the least faith in Soler out of the big four. I don't really know why, either.

 

You're not alone. I had him behind Edwards on my personal prospect top 10.

 

Same. I hope I'm not racist.

??

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

You know, like Kaplan. I'm gonna drunk right now, so forgive me.

[treebird]

You know, like Kaplan. I'm gonna drunk right now, so forgive me.

 

don't apologize, it's about time somebody started giving cj credit for being such a vanillaface

[WrigleyField 22]

Regarding the odds of a guy with no previous AA experience and not a full season of A+ getting a Sept call up, I'd bump up the odds a little on any guy that's already on the 40 man. Still pretty low.

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Regarding the odds of a guy with no previous AA experience and not a full season of A+ getting a Sept call up, I'd bump up the odds a little on any guy that's already on the 40 man. Still pretty low.

 

 

Yeah, I didn't mean to imply that Soler should be treated like every other guy who finished last year in A+ and might start at AA this year.

 

Given his status as an top-50 prospect with a big contract, a bit on the old side and alread on the 40-man, I'm willing to up to 5%. If he were some random dude, I'd go a lot lower.

[MWV]

Given his status as an top-50 prospect with a big contract, a bit on the old side and alread on the 40-man, I'm willing to up to 5%. If he were some random dude, I'd go a lot lower.

 

2013 average age in the Southern League was 24.1. Although I expect league average age to be higher than "prospect average" age, I always considered Soler age appropriate, if not young for his level. What are the "consensus" (to the extent that they exist) prospect age cutoffs by level for folks around here?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'll withdraw and amend to "age-appropriate." He'll be 22 all year in AA.

[craig]

...2013 average age in the Southern League was 24.1. Although I expect league average age to be higher than "prospect average" age, I always considered Soler age appropriate, if not young for his level. What are the "consensus" (to the extent that they exist) prospect age cutoffs by level for folks around here?

 

For me, for simplicity I use simple whole-number roundoff numbers. A-: 20 A+: 21 AA: 22

 

If you don't round off, I assume in A- it would be more on the 19.7 than 20.3 side of 20.

*Likewise it's younger for top-5 guys per league, guys who tend to show up on Top-100 or Top-50 overall lists.

*Anybody else have more precise numbers?

 

I look at BA's top-20 for their leagues for this purpose. The average age for the 10-20 guys is older than for the 1-5 group.

 

Vogelbach was not young for an A- prospect.

Soler was not young for an A+ prospect.

 

Even using top-20 age averages, it still skews deceptively on the old side. For college guys like Bryant and Pierce Johnson, they were 21 in A+, not young. But having used 3 years in college, how could they be young for their level?

[craig]

I also think that age young and baseball young can differ. At 22 he'll not be young for a prospect if he opens in AA, and if he opens at Daytona he'll definitely be old for a prospect. But in terms of baseball experience, he'll still be very young and inexperienced. He's scored about half a season's worth of AB's over the last three summers. Very inexperienced.

 

Likewise Rivero might be 25, so might seem like a fossil assuming he opens in AA. But it's not like he's spend 6 years struggling in A-ball. He's hardly pitched in 4 summers, so his experience is very minimal.

 

For better or for worse. Low experience might mean it's going to be hard for both of them to adjust and excel. But low experience might also mean that they might learn new things and improve much more quickly than most guys their age would. Their improvement trajectory might be much steeper than for most guys at their age and expiating performance level.

[Guest]

Podcast with Derek Johnson

 

http://topcoachpodcast.com/?p=450

 

With hires like this one, it can’t be long until the Chicago Cubs are playing in October. Okay, some wishful HOPING on this Cub fan’s part, but there’s no doubt that the Cubs’ front office has their mind right when they brought Derek Johnson aboard as the director of minor league pitching for the organization. The former Vanderbilt assistant under Tim Corbin has a sparkling resume and the respect of those all through the coaching profession. Although he’s said that there are similarities in the roles, the sheer numbers dictate a different kind of work environment. While Johnson directed the development f 13-15 pitchers for the Commodores, he’s got 100+ young men of various ages, experience, cultures, and languages to guide from Mesa to Knoxville to Des Moines. He’s got a tall task, but sounds up to it.

[jumbo]

...2013 average age in the Southern League was 24.1. Although I expect league average age to be higher than "prospect average" age, I always considered Soler age appropriate, if not young for his level. What are the "consensus" (to the extent that they exist) prospect age cutoffs by level for folks around here?

 

For me, for simplicity I use simple whole-number roundoff numbers. A-: 20 A+: 21 AA: 22

 

If you don't round off, I assume in A- it would be more on the 19.7 than 20.3 side of 20.

*Likewise it's younger for top-5 guys per league, guys who tend to show up on Top-100 or Top-50 overall lists.

*Anybody else have more precise numbers?

 

I look at BA's top-20 for their leagues for this purpose. The average age for the 10-20 guys is older than for the 1-5 group.

 

Vogelbach was not young for an A- prospect.

Soler was not young for an A+ prospect.

 

Even using top-20 age averages, it still skews deceptively on the old side. For college guys like Bryant and Pierce Johnson, they were 21 in A+, not young. But having used 3 years in college, how could they be young for their level?

 

kind of an old article, but one I bookmarked for this type of discussion/reference

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/minor-league-leaderboard-context/

[Banedon]

http://www.prospectdigest.com/2014/02/19/2014-farm-system-rankings/

 

1. Houston Astros

Three elite blue chippers – Carlos Correa, Mark Appel, and George Springer – accompanied by a handful of others that could be held in the same regard if a few things break the right way. Plenty of depth around the diamond and as many as 16 players with the ceiling of a solid, league average MLB regular. Keep an eye on former second round pick Nolan Fontana.

 

2. Boston Red Sox

After winning the franchise’s third World Series title in the last 10 years, Boston’s potentially building a late 1990s/early 2000s New York Yankees-like dynasty – savvy front office, payroll flexibility, veteran core in place, and baseball’s second best farm system with plenty of depth and high ceiling talent.

 

3. Chicago Cubs

After having the best player in the draft fall in their laps with the #2 pick last June, Chicago added Kris Bryant to their growing stockpile of high-upside offensive prospects. Of the club’s top 10 prospects, eight are of the offensive variety: Bryant, Javier Baez, Albert Almora, Jorge Soler, Arismendy Alcantara, Christian Villanueva, and Mike Olt.

[davell]

So, Kevin Encarnacion is lucky to be alive. He was pulled out of the SUV and 30 seconds later, it exploded. He is still in the Arizona Burn Center with injuries and burns to his throwing arm, torso, and foot. Damage to his throwing arm is still unknown at this point. In an interview, he did say he'd be able to resume his career at some point.

[rawaction]

So, Kevin Encarnacion is lucky to be alive. He was pulled out of the SUV and 30 seconds later, it exploded. He is still in the Arizona Burn Center with injuries and burns to his throwing arm, torso, and foot. Damage to his throwing arm is still unknown at this point. In an interview, he did say he'd be able to resume his career at some point.

 

Damn. That's scary. Hope he resumes his baseball career, but more hopeful for a normal/full life.

[Guest]

@CarrieMuskat: #Cubs fans won’t recognize Dan Vogelbach. He lost 30 pounds this winter. Looks great

[woodchip2153]

@CarrieMuskat: #Cubs fans won’t recognize Dan Vogelbach. He lost 30 pounds this winter. Looks great

 

It was probably Brett Jackson

[Clem Fandango]

I'll be honest, the only reason I'm in favor for the NL adopting the DH at the moment is Vogelbach. If he's traded I'll probably reverse my stance.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Nope, still want the DH. There will always be Vogelbachs.

[JeffH]

@CarrieMuskat: #Cubs fans won’t recognize Dan Vogelbach. He lost 30 pounds this winter. Looks great

 

I saw him up close at the new facility in late January. If you didn't already know that he had once been heavy, you wouldn't suspect a thing.

[Guest]

Vogelbach 2012 v. Vogelbach 2014