Random Cubs Musings: Minor League Edition

[Guest]

Yeah. *I'm* the one being unrealistic here... :roll:

 

Yeah, you are, if you think that if this season played out 100 times, Soler would get a Sept call up 5 or fewer times.

 

Correct. Less than 5 or fewer times out of 100 will a guy with 55 games of A+ experience shoot up the ladder and make his MLB debut that year.

 

I'd place roughly equal odds of that happening to the odds of him starting the season at A+, getting hurt, having a disciplinary incident, struggling at the plate and barely making AA by August.

 

It's that time of year again where "What is the most absurdly optimistic scenario we could possibly come up with for a Cubs prospect" slowly morphs into the expectation.

 

Totally because I definitely said it's the expectation.

 

As for the likelihood of him starting in AA, I'm pretty sure they've implied that he was just about to get sent up when they shut him down. I'd be fairly surprised if he didn't start at Tennessee.

 

Also, the bold is just another example of Kyling - lazily supporting whatever stance you've decided to take while completely disregarding any semblance of nuance. Soler is not your "replacement" guy who has 55 games in A+ and it accomplishes nothing to try to frame the situation as such. Nothing other than furthering a weak argument, that is.

 

Knowing what we know about this FO and their approach with their more important prospects, I don't expect Soler to get that call in September, but it's nowhere near as unlikely as you're painting it to be.

Edited February 16, 2014 by David

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Totally because I definitely said it's the expectation.

 

As for the likelihood of him starting in AA, I'm pretty sure they've implied that he was just about to get sent up when they shut him down. I'd be fairly surprised if he didn't start at Tennessee.

 

It's on the way to expectation. You're outraged by the suggestion that it's 5% or less. A few more weeks and maybe a ST HR or two and we can get it up to 50%, I'm sure.

[craig]

hey guys whats the over under on soler making the majors this year

 

Heh, I thought 0.3% earlier, but maybe that's little low. 1-3%, maybe? Stuff on Soler is long-term optimistic, but doesn't seem like he's envisioned as a real fast-mover refined hitter.

 

It is true that September call ups are kind of different.

 

But they do count towards service time. If you want a guy to not get free agency, you often send him to the minors for a bit in the spring. If the guy has gotten a month of September service, then you'd need to wait an extra month the following spring to delay free agency.

[davell]

I don't see it honestly. I'd agree with Kyle's 5% assessment actually. Soler is still raw and it's not going to surprise me if he struggles a bit out of the gate, even if I do think he's going to really establish himself as an elite prospect this year. Which I do.

 

But if he spends the first half of the year in Tennessee, he'd have to absolutely mash in AAA for 2 months as well, before the FO would promote him to the main club in September. I think the FO wants this group to come up and never go back down. After seeing Rizzo struggle as much as he did in his initial big league experience, I think they're much more likely to leave a guy down, unless they're ultra-confident he's ready. 2 months in Iowa doesn't seem to me like it'd be enough for them to feel that way about Soler, due to his lack of professional experience, in my opinion.

 

I'm thinking mid 2015 is the major league debut of Soler, Almora too, for that matter.

[Guest]

hey guys whats the over under on soler making the majors this year

 

Heh, I thought 0.3% earlier, but maybe that's little low. 1-3%, maybe? Stuff on Soler is long-term optimistic, but doesn't seem like he's envisioned as a real fast-mover refined hitter.

 

It is true that September call ups are kind of different.

 

But they do count towards service time. If you want a guy to not get free agency, you often send him to the minors for a bit in the spring. If the guy has gotten a month of September service, then you'd need to wait an extra month the following spring to delay free agency.

 

I've heard them talk up (and it's seen in his numbers) how refined and mature his plate approach is numerous times and definitely more than any of the other big 4.

 

That said, he hasn't played that much baseball in the past few years and that's the biggest thing going against him.

[Cubswin11]

hey guys whats the over under on soler making the majors this year

 

Heh, I thought 0.3% earlier, but maybe that's little low. 1-3%, maybe? Stuff on Soler is long-term optimistic, but doesn't seem like he's envisioned as a real fast-mover refined hitter.

 

It is true that September call ups are kind of different.

 

But they do count towards service time. If you want a guy to not get free agency, you often send him to the minors for a bit in the spring. If the guy has gotten a month of September service, then you'd need to wait an extra month the following spring to delay free agency.

 

I've heard them talk up (and it's seen in his numbers) how refined and mature his plate approach is numerous times and definitely more than any of the other big 4.

 

That said, he hasn't played that much baseball in the past few years and that's the biggest thing going against him.

Yeah he definitely has had the most refined approach of all of the big 4 when he has played. I think as long as he stays healthy he will be a fast mover.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Do we even know he's starting in Tenn?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Do we even know he's starting in Tenn?

 

It seems likely but not completely certain.

[MWV]

It is true that September call ups are kind of different.

 

But they do count towards service time. If you want a guy to not get free agency, you often send him to the minors for a bit in the spring. If the guy has gotten a month of September service, then you'd need to wait an extra month the following spring to delay free agency.

 

Service time is less of an issue with Soler, though (at least in terms of team controlled years). As I understand it, he can opt out of his 9 year deal upon becoming arb eligible, but he'll still be under team control. He may wind up being more expensive, but if so, that means the cubs have an all-star caliber RF on their roster, and I'm cool with that. I think with Soler that clock issues will be less a deciding factor than preparedness for MLB.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Also, the bold is just another example of Kyling - lazily supporting whatever stance you've decided to take while completely disregarding any semblance of nuance.

 

People get weird about factual statements when they don't like the conclusion those statements support. It's not my job to frame statements in a way that supports your argument.

 

Some situations don't require nuance. How likely is it that Soler, last seen in the regular season at A+, shoots up to the majors by September? Not impossible, but really darn unlikely.

[Guest]

What a silly tangent.

 

Soler is an elite talent with international pro experience, an advanced approach at the plate, and who probably already would have a couple hundred AA PAs if not for an injury. The thought that he could start at AA, get promoted, and then play well enough to earn a call-up after Iowa's season is over is hardly fantasy.

 

On the other hand, Soler doesn't have eye-popping numbers, hasn't actually faced AA pitching, and his injury concerns are more of a weight than others because he needed/needs the playing time. No one should be expecting a huge jump either.

 

We're talking about an extremely talented prospect with very little MiLB experience. Eye rolling in any direction about his timetable is dumb.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

What a silly tangent.

 

Soler is an elite talent with international pro experience, an advanced approach at the plate, and who probably already would have a couple hundred AA PAs if not for an injury. The thought that he could start at AA, get promoted, and then play well enough to earn a call-up after Iowa's season is over is hardly fantasy.

 

On the other hand, Soler doesn't have eye-popping numbers, hasn't actually faced AA pitching, and his injury concerns are more of a weight than others because he needed/needs the playing time. No one should be expecting a huge jump either.

 

We're talking about an extremely talented prospect with very little MiLB experience. Eye rolling in any direction about his timetable is dumb.

 

Pick a side so someone can yell at you, you wuss.

[craig]

It is true that September call ups are kind of different.

 

But they do count towards service time. If you want a guy to not get free agency, you often send him to the minors for a bit in the spring. If the guy has gotten a month of September service, then you'd need to wait an extra month the following spring to delay free agency.

 

Service time is less of an issue with Soler, though (at least in terms of team controlled years). As I understand it, he can opt out of his 9 year deal upon becoming arb eligible, but he'll still be under team control. He may wind up being more expensive, but if so, that means the cubs have an all-star caliber RF on their roster, and I'm cool with that. I think with Soler that clock issues will be less a deciding factor than preparedness for MLB.

 

Not sure I'm tracking. 6-year free-agency will still apply to Soler, no? So shouldn't the question of whether or not he's got a full year in by the end of 2015 matter as much for him as for anybody else?

[Guest]

I'm not sure if the opt-out for arbitration just kills the remainder of the contract(I assume so), but Soler's current deal runs through 2020. If he's under team control thru 2020 regardless, then whether or not he plays in 2014 is largely irrelevant for FA purposes.

[JeffH]

I'm not sure if the opt-out for arbitration just kills the remainder of the contract(I assume so), but Soler's current deal runs through 2020. If he's under team control thru 2020 regardless, then whether or not he plays in 2014 is largely irrelevant for FA purposes.

 

The former is true, the latter in not. You cannot write a contract that circumvents the CBA.

[craig]

..I've heard them talk up (and it's seen in his numbers) how refined and mature his plate approach is numerous times and definitely more than any of the other big 4.

 

That said, he hasn't played that much baseball in the past few years and that's the biggest thing going against him.

 

By "approach", he's mature in that he's not swinging at everything. And yes, they have praised that, last spring and McLeod mentioned that a couple of times within the last week. But yes, he's played very, very little baseball and hit very little pro pitching with pro movement. 344 pro AB's isn't much. There are other reports that suggest that while he's pretty good in not swinging at lots of bad pitches, that he's not necessarily that good at covering the plate. Everybody seems to admire his power, but while his selectivity may be mature, the consensus as an actual hitter seems to be more "raw" than "mature". Holes, arm-bar, raw, adjustments to learn, lots to learn, etc., seem more common. So I'm not sure the "mature" applies to his actual hitting, even if it does for his plate discipline.

 

I guess I don't see the scouting reports, the individual story, or the inexperience really indicating that Soler is a good candidate to move really fast; if anything I think it suggests he'll take some patience.

 

Hope I'm wrong.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm not sure if the opt-out for arbitration just kills the remainder of the contract(I assume so), but Soler's current deal runs through 2020. If he's under team control thru 2020 regardless, then whether or not he plays in 2014 is largely irrelevant for FA purposes.

 

The former is true, the latter in not. You cannot write a contract that circumvents the CBA.

 

What would be circumventing?

 

Older IFAs usually have a clause that says they get released automatically when their contract is up, that's why you can have a Fukudome four-year deal.

 

And certainly you can have a contract that goes past the six-year line.

[craig]

...If he's under team control thru 2020 regardless, then whether or not he plays in 2014 is largely irrelevant for FA purposes.

 

Where 2014 impacts is whether he'll be a FA after 2020 or after 2021.

 

If he's on the big-league roster from opening day 2015 on with the Cubs, 30 days of service time in 2014 makes no difference.

 

But if they don't give him any 2014 service, then two weeks in the minors in 2015 will be enough to delay free agency by a year. If they do use 30 days this September, they'll need to wait an additional 30 days in 2015 before recalling him then, in order to delay the FA.

[craig]

...Older IFAs usually have a clause that says they get released automatically when their contract is up....

 

Soler doesn't, though.

[MWV]

...If he's under team control thru 2020 regardless, then whether or not he plays in 2014 is largely irrelevant for FA purposes.

 

Where 2014 impacts is whether he'll be a FA after 2020 or after 2021.

 

If he's on the big-league roster from opening day 2015 on with the Cubs, 30 days of service time in 2014 makes no difference.

 

But if they don't give him any 2014 service, then two weeks in the minors in 2015 will be enough to delay free agency by a year. If they do use 30 days this September, they'll need to wait an additional 30 days in 2015 before recalling him then, in order to delay the FA.

Interesting. That is a little more nuanced than I presumed/understood.

[Guest]

Not for nothing, I really hope they are not basing promotions on when a guy will be eligible for FA. I mean [expletive], when did winning baseball games become priority number 2 or 3? I'm not criticizing anyone.

 

Soler has to show he's the same guy he was before the injury and he's got to tame his temper. I don't think he'll see Chicago this year regardless. But If he destroys this year I hope he's slated for the Cubs in 2015 right out of spring training.

Edited February 16, 2014 by CubinNY

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Not for nothing, I really hope they are not basing promotions on when a guy will be eligible for FA. I mean [expletive], when did winning baseball games become priority number 2 or 3? I'm not criticizing anyone.

 

When bringing a guy up two weeks later means you control him for a whole extra year later, you'd be stupid not to consider it.

[JeffH]

I'm not sure if the opt-out for arbitration just kills the remainder of the contract(I assume so), but Soler's current deal runs through 2020. If he's under team control thru 2020 regardless, then whether or not he plays in 2014 is largely irrelevant for FA purposes.

 

The former is true, the latter in not. You cannot write a contract that circumvents the CBA.

 

What would be circumventing?

 

Older IFAs usually have a clause that says they get released automatically when their contract is up, that's why you can have a Fukudome four-year deal.

 

And certainly you can have a contract that goes past the six-year line.

 

If Soler broke camp with the big club this year and never went back down, he could opt out after 2016 to enter the arbitration process and then would be a free agent after 2019. If the contract said that he was still under club control for 2020 (ostensibly eligible for arbitration for a fourth time), that would be a violation of the CBA and they couldn't do that.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Guys have fourth arbitration years all the time.

[JeffH]

Guys have fourth arbitration years all the time.

 

Yes, but not in addition to three pre-arb years. Six years of "club control" before free agency. Usually, it's 3+3. Sometimes it's 2+4. It's never 3+4.