Random Cubs Musings: Minor League Edition

[XZero771679666304]

It's going to be really weird having Iowa be by far and away the most exciting team in the system to start the year. I'm so used to it being a baseball career hospice.

 

It's pretty nice that at some point this year, all of the big 4 should be above AA. Finally.

 

I'd be shocked but it would be awesome if they deemed Almora ready to start this year in Tennessee.

 

And of course, this year Iowa doesn't travel to Albuquerque. :mad:

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Badler posted some breakout international prospects to watch this season. Seems to like Torres a little better than Jimenez:

 

Gleyber Torres, ss, Cubs: Among the hitters in last year’s July 2 international signing class, Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers and Phillies third baseman Luis Encarnacion were the two most advanced hitters. While Devers and Encarnacion both face position questions, Torres projects as a middle infielder while also carrying a polished bat for his age. Torres and Dominican outfielder Eloy Jimenez are advanced enough to debut in the Arizona League, and given Torres’ present ability, he should make a smooth transition to pro ball.

[craig]

Yeah, he's been the biggest Torres guy. I think there may be some Almora-to-Soler type thing going on here. Torres is the "polished" one, who will make a "smooth transition", and plays middle. Soler is the physical specimen with the big power, and Jiminez projects to be a specimen like that as well. But "polished" and ready for smooth transition, not so much. Being built for power and being able to actually hit HR's versus game pitching, who knows.

 

Badler's consistent support for Torres is very encouraging.

[Guest]

Someone made a post on minorleagueball comparing Baez to Brandon Wood, and this was posted in response:

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/2/12/5403644/javier-baez-the-next-brandon-wood

 

 

When looking at Baez and being concerned about high K% and BB% per PA, you need to look at it in proper context.

He’s a fast moving prospect, and he is someone that takes time adjusting to the new level once he gets there. Once he got to AA, I think he hit a HR in his 1st at bat and went 0-20 after with 10Ks. He’s also someone who learns quickly, as evidenced by his end numbers in every league. If you look at his BB% and K% by PA by month, it tells an interesting story. Starting with K%:

 

http://imageshack.com/a/img823/607/9bs5.jpg

 

Starting out in A+, he struggled initially, but quickly mastered the league improving his K% down to 20-21% by the end of his time in the Florida State League (a heavy pitchers league). Those Ks massively spiked with his arrival in AA, however in his 2nd month he’d worked it back down to around 25%. I believe given more time, he’d have lowered it even more as he learned the league and the pitchers.

 

Looking at his BB%, it’s low from his time in the FSL:

 

http://img850.imageshack.us/img850/4319/l9wy.jpg

 

He had a couple months of being overly aggressive, and working with his hitting coaches managed to address his aggressive approach and he carried an 8-12% BB each month for the remainder of the year in a tough hitting environment in AA at a league he was very young for. I think he’s showing a great ability to learn as he moves forward, and he’s taking the coaching seriously.

 

Overall, I would expect him to struggle initially this year in AAA. He’ll be seeing crafty pitchers that throw good off speed selections, but by May/June I’d expect to see that K% back in the 20-25% range and the BB% holding strong around 8-10%. People keep looking at him as this massive K risk and no BB power hitting SS, but I think he’s more than that.

 

The other major difference is when you look at leagues and realize what Baez did in two of the more pitcher friendly leagues in baseball – it really is incredible beyond what Wood did in the Cal League.

 

Hope this helps give a little insight that hadn’t been captured or realized in the past!

[MWV]

http://imageshack.com/a/img823/607/9bs5.jpg

 

Starting out in A+, he struggled initially, but quickly mastered the league improving his K% down to 20-21% by the end of his time in the Florida State League (a heavy pitchers league). Those Ks massively spiked with his arrival in AA, however in his 2nd month he’d worked it back down to around 25%. I believe given more time, he’d have lowered it even more as he learned the league and the pitchers.

 

Outside of the spike upon entering AA, the error bars suggest that his K% remained unchanged. The upside of remains, though; he maintained his A+ K% at the AA level.

 

 

http://img850.imageshack.us/img850/4319/l9wy.jpg

 

Similarly, the BB% is essentially constant (within error bars) at about 7%. I'd be interested to know how the poster generated his/her margins of error. That said, I certainly want to believe in Javy as a patient, selective, home run crushing [expletive]. I'm just not sure we have enough (within this data) to present a definitive trend.

 

Thanks nonetheless, David, for presenting this content.

[sneakypower]

it boggles the mind; it's just about impossible (for me) to know what to make of a guy playing at a full-season pace of 63 HR and 205 Ks in his last 2.5 months to close out the season

 

especially so, when that guy is listed as 6'0 190, and plays SS...like, that's not a real person

[Guest]

it boggles the mind; it's just about impossible (for me) to know what to make of a guy playing at a full-season pace of 63 HR and 205 Ks in his last 2.5 months to close out the season

 

especially so, when that guy is listed as 6'0 190, and plays SS...like, that's not a real person

 

i just spat out what i was drinking...a little

 

lol

[Guest]

Yeah, he's been the biggest Torres guy. I think there may be some Almora-to-Soler type thing going on here. Torres is the "polished" one, who will make a "smooth transition", and plays middle. Soler is the physical specimen with the big power, and Jiminez projects to be a specimen like that as well. But "polished" and ready for smooth transition, not so much. Being built for power and being able to actually hit HR's versus game pitching, who knows.

 

Badler's consistent support for Torres is very encouraging.

 

Keep in mind Badler is solely responsible for BA's international lists, so while he's a big Torres fan, he ranked Eloy #1 and Gleyber #3.

[Guest]

How conceivable is it that Soler starts at AA this year, plays well enough to get promoted to Iowa somewhere in the middle of the season and then makes his way to Wrigley as a September call-up?

[sneakypower]

i'm kind of expecting it

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

How conceivable is it that Soler starts at AA this year, plays well enough to get promoted to Iowa somewhere in the middle of the season and then makes his way to Wrigley as a September call-up?

 

30%

[craig]

0.3%. :)

[imb]

hey guys whats the over under on soler making the majors this year

[A New Era]

hey guys whats the over under on soler making the majors this year

 

Low I'd say. 10% maybe. There is a slight bit chance that everything clicks and he just completely destroys all the minors. But from the few articles I've read. I think this FO might want him a whole year in the minors just to do some mental maturing and adjustment to US ball and US living.

[Guest]

lol

[A New Era]

lol

 

I don't get it. :|

[Hairyducked Idiot]

How conceivable is it that Soler starts at AA this year, plays well enough to get promoted to Iowa somewhere in the middle of the season and then makes his way to Wrigley as a September call-up?

 

You're asking for three promotions in five months of baseball. 5% or less

[Guest]

How conceivable is it that Soler starts at AA this year, plays well enough to get promoted to Iowa somewhere in the middle of the season and then makes his way to Wrigley as a September call-up?

 

You're asking for three promotions in five months of baseball. 5% or less

 

Meh... Sept callups aren't exactly your typical promotion.

 

And you're counting his starting in AA as one of those promotions? Really? lol

[Hairyducked Idiot]

How conceivable is it that Soler starts at AA this year, plays well enough to get promoted to Iowa somewhere in the middle of the season and then makes his way to Wrigley as a September call-up?

 

You're asking for three promotions in five months of baseball. 5% or less

 

Meh... Sept callups aren't exactly your typical promotion.

 

And you're counting his starting in AA as one of those promotions? Really? lol

 

Has he played in AA before? Of course that counts.

 

Especially considering he didn't play a full season at A+ either.

 

Put it this way: Javier Baez's zomg season, in the top 5 by a Cubs prospect in my lifetime, got him one promotion from a level he had experience at going into the season.

[Guest]

How conceivable is it that Soler starts at AA this year, plays well enough to get promoted to Iowa somewhere in the middle of the season and then makes his way to Wrigley as a September call-up?

 

You're asking for three promotions in five months of baseball. 5% or less

 

Meh... Sept callups aren't exactly your typical promotion.

 

And you're counting his starting in AA as one of those promotions? Really? lol

 

Has he played in AA before? Of course that counts.

 

Especially considering he didn't play a full season at A+ either.

 

Put it this way: Javier Baez's zomg season, in the top 5 by a Cubs prospect in my lifetime, got him one promotion from a level he had experience at going into the season.

 

Yeah, again, Sept callup situation isn't comparable to what you're talking about and Soler is pretty likely to start in AA this year.

 

You're attempting to frame it in a way that makes it seem much less likely than it is. Not unusual for you.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Yeah. *I'm* the one being unrealistic here... :roll:

[Guest]

Yeah. *I'm* the one being unrealistic here... :roll:

 

Yeah, you are, if you think that if this season played out 100 times, Soler would get a Sept call up 5 or fewer times.

 

But really what I'm taking issue with is the level of intellectual honesty in the way you've tried to frame it for reasons I already stated.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Yeah. *I'm* the one being unrealistic here... :roll:

 

Yeah, you are, if you think that if this season played out 100 times, Soler would get a Sept call up 5 or fewer times.

 

Correct. Less than 5 or fewer times out of 100 will a guy with 55 games of A+ experience shoot up the ladder and make his MLB debut that year.

 

I'd place roughly equal odds of that happening to the odds of him starting the season at A+, getting hurt, having a disciplinary incident, struggling at the plate and barely making AA by August.

 

It's that time of year again where "What is the most absurdly optimistic scenario we could possibly come up with for a Cubs prospect" slowly morphs into the expectation.

[Clem Fandango]

Even though I don't necessarily think the Cubs FO cares, the only reason I could see them attempt to rush Soler compared to the others is that they're actually paying him like a major leaguer. That's the only reason I could see the FO needing/wanting to move him through the system quickly, and even then I don't think it'll happen.

[A New Era]

They are paying him enough money that they know it's important for them to do it right. They know the right way is not unjustifyingly rushing him. But letting him dictate when he is ready, by performance and mental readiness.