Dempster Traded to Texas for 3B Villanueva & RHP Hendricks

[jersey cubs fan]

Is there anything to this prevailing theory on here that packaging guys together will get a better return than trading them separately?

 

I just think you'd never get anything for somebody like LaHair alone, but he could perhaps sweeten the pot for an actual trade chip like Dempster.

[Cubswin11]

Is there anything to this prevailing theory on here that packaging guys together will get a better return than trading them separately?

 

I just think you'd never get anything for somebody like LaHair alone, but he could perhaps sweeten the pot for an actual trade chip like Dempster.

Agreed, he might make the difference between getting their #6 and #4 prospect or getting an additional low A guy or maybe throwing him in causes us not to pay as much, or any of, Dempster's remaining contract.

[SouthSideRyan]

Is there anything to this prevailing theory on here that packaging guys together will get a better return than trading them separately?

 

I just think you'd never get anything for somebody like LaHair alone, but he could perhaps sweeten the pot for an actual trade chip like Dempster.

 

If you'd never get anything for LaHair alone, why would somebody give you more if you threw him in? Say LaHair = #22 prospect in an organization. How does X = #4 prospect but X+LaHair = #3?

[jersey cubs fan]

Is there anything to this prevailing theory on here that packaging guys together will get a better return than trading them separately?

 

I just think you'd never get anything for somebody like LaHair alone, but he could perhaps sweeten the pot for an actual trade chip like Dempster.

 

If you'd never get anything for LaHair alone, why would somebody give you more if you threw him in? Say LaHair = #22 prospect in an organization. How does X = #4 prospect but X+LaHair = #3?

 

More like giving your trade partner an extra incentive to make the trade rather than making the return all that much better. It's a matter of getting them interested in a deal in the first place. If you make a bunch of calls asking what people would want for Bryan LaHair, I don't see anybody responding. But if you already got them wanting to say yes on a Dempster deal, LaHair could help in the process. Maybe you can get them to throw in an extra longshot project.

[rawaction]

Is there anything to this prevailing theory on here that packaging guys together will get a better return than trading them separately?

 

I just think you'd never get anything for somebody like LaHair alone, but he could perhaps sweeten the pot for an actual trade chip like Dempster.

 

If you'd never get anything for LaHair alone, why would somebody give you more if you threw him in? Say LaHair = #22 prospect in an organization. How does X = #4 prospect but X+LaHair = #3?

 

Because LaHair would be the proverbial "bird in the hand" in this scenario.

 

X (Dempster) + LaHair = #3 prospect is better for the buying team than X (Dempster) + Y (bat from another team) for #4 prospect and #12 prospect, even if player Y is better than LaHair.

[SouthSideRyan]

I just don't see how there's any logic involved there.

[jersey cubs fan]

I just don't see how there's any logic involved there.

 

where?

[davell]

The Dodgers have said they'll be looking to add a reliever as well. Elbert is their only lefty, so Russell makes quite a bit of sense for them.

[jersey cubs fan]

Baseball GMs aren't bond traders. They aren't looking for perfectly quantifiable transactions. And Ned Colletti of all people is somebody you can probably haggle with.

[Guest]

I just don't see how there's any logic involved there.

 

I think inherent in a lot of trades is a difference in how the players are evaluated. In that sense, I think that it might be easier to find one sucker instead of two. Plus, getting value across fewer/only one player in order to get a higher caliber player in return is another benefit. Whether that's actually borne out in reality, I don't know, but I can see why it would make sense.

[sneakypower]

They should have concerns about his bat.

the Dodgers are getting a .649 OPS out of their 1B this year

 

Lahair's posted an .890 OPS with the Cubs, including a .980 OPS vs. RHP (.475 vs. LHP)

 

he's unquestionably a significant upgrade for them, provided they do their best to never let him face a single lefty

[rawaction]

I just don't see how there's any logic involved there.

 

I was just using the example you laid out. I obviously don't know how it works for real, but there are plenty of reasons that have been given why it could work. The Dodgers have shown interest in Dempster to the point that there were reports that a deal would be done soon. The Dodgers also could use help in 1B and LF where they're getting 0 production.

 

There's plenty of logical reasons the Dodgers would take LaHair and maybe give up a marginally better prospect than they would with Dempster alone vs. the alternative of going after someone better and more expensive in terms of salary and trade package.

[jersey cubs fan]

They should have concerns about his bat.

the Dodgers are getting a .649 OPS out of their 1B this year

 

Lahair's posted an .890 OPS with the Cubs, including a .980 OPS vs. RHP (.475 vs. LHP)

 

he's unquestionably a significant upgrade for them, provided they do their best to never let him face a single lefty

 

There's very clearly some question on that. He's got a sub 700 OPS the past month and really he's been bad since early May.

[Guest]

They should have concerns about his bat.

the Dodgers are getting a .649 OPS out of their 1B this year

 

Lahair's posted an .890 OPS with the Cubs, including a .980 OPS vs. RHP (.475 vs. LHP)

 

he's unquestionably a significant upgrade for them, provided they do their best to never let him face a single lefty

 

I don't doubt that their 1B situation is terrible, but let's not pretend LaHair isn't well on his way to being a better Micah Hoffpauir whose flash in the pan lasted a little longer.

 

He has been terrible in June and in May was already showing decline (although still respectable). Those numbers you posted are being propped up by an obscene April. Unless he has faced an inordinate amount of LHP in the last two months or something, I don't see how you can be remotely sure that not facing lefties will keep his numbers respectable.

 

But yea, he'd probably be better than a .649 OPS.

[sneakypower]

you're arbitrarily shrinking the sample size and making specious inferences

 

other frauds/flash-in-the-pans

 

Paul Konerko:

thru May 27 - 1.157 OPS

since - .572

 

Rafael Furcal:

thru May 13 - .965 OPS

since - .533 OPS

 

Chris Young:

thru May 22 - 1.055 OPS

since - .516 OPS

 

Kelly Johnson:

thru May 8 - .855 OPS

since - .579 OPS

 

JJ Hardy:

thru May 16 - .807 OPS

since - .546 OPS

 

there's actually many more examples i can cite if you'd like, and LaHair's OPS is actually considerably better during the 'crashing-to-earth' phase he's apparently going through

[jersey cubs fan]

you're arbitrarily shrinking the sample size and making specious inferences

 

other frauds/flash-in-the-pans

 

Paul Konerko:

thru May 27 - 1.157 OPS

since - .572

 

Rafael Furcal:

thru May 13 - .965 OPS

since - .533 OPS

 

Chris Young:

thru May 22 - 1.055 OPS

since - .516 OPS

 

Kelly Johnson:

thru May 8 - .855 OPS

since - .579 OPS

 

JJ Hardy:

thru May 16 - .807 OPS

since - .546 OPS

 

there's actually many more examples i can cite if you'd like, and LaHair's OPS is actually considerably better during the 'crashing-to-earth' phase he's apparently going through

 

It's really stupid to compare a 29 year old with no track record to a bunch of people who actually do have a track record.

[sneakypower]

It's really stupid to compare a 29 year old with no track record to a bunch of people who actually do have a track record.

point conceded. it really is unfortunate that the Cubs just signed this guy out of the local Benihana and that we don't have any record of his performance in any type of professional baseball the past several years with which we could have some idea about his abilities

[jersey cubs fan]

It's really stupid to compare a 29 year old with no track record to a bunch of people who actually do have a track record.

point conceded. it really is unfortunate that the Cubs just signed this guy out of the local Benihana and that we don't have any record of his performance in any type of professional baseball the past several years with which we could have some idea about his abilities

 

We do have a record of his career in the minor leagues, which was entirely unimpressive during the timeframe in which you would expect an actual big league hitter to be productive during his minor league career.

[Guest]

It's really stupid to compare a 29 year old with no track record to a bunch of people who actually do have a track record.

point conceded. it really is unfortunate that the Cubs just signed this guy out of the local Benihana and that we don't have any record of his performance in any type of professional baseball the past several years with which we could have some idea about his abilities

 

That track record being dominating the PCL in his 5th and 6th attempts at AAA at ages 27 and 28?

 

Are you going to compare his AAA numbers to Rizzo's now? Because that would make about as much sense as the comparisons to Konerko, Furcal, Hardy, etc.

[sneakypower]

2009 - completely destroys RHP in the PCL: not representative

2010 - completely destroys RHP in the PCL: not representative

2011 - completely destroys RHP in the PCL/MLB: not representative

April - Mid-May 2012 - completely destroys RHP in the MLB: not representative

Mid-May - June 2012 - doesn't completely destroy RHP in the MLB: YUP THIS IS WHO HE IS

 

 

edited for gooney-proofing

Edited June 28, 2012 by sneakypower

[jersey cubs fan]

2009 - completely destroys RHP in the PCL: not representative

2010 - completely destroys RHP in the PCL: not representative

2011 - completely destroys RHP in the PCL/MLB: not representative

April - Mid-May 2012 - completely destroys RHP in the MLB: not representative

Mid-May - June 2012 - brief slump: YUP THIS IS WHO HE IS

 

Apri - Mid-May he destroys it but Mid-May - June is just a brief slump?

[sneakypower]

i guess i should have more painstakingly vetted the specific verbiage i had put for that, so as to (hopefully) avoid your tiresome semantical-quibbling fixation

[Guest]

i guess i should have more painstakingly vetted the specific verbiage i had put for that, so as to (hopefully) avoid your tiresome semantical-quibbling fixation

 

You could've made almost this exact same case you're trying to make for Micah Hoffpauir.

 

Bickering aside, I think it's significantly more likely that major league pitchers have figured out how to get him out consistently than that this is some slump. Dominating AAA after 4 or 5 tries in your late 20's is not something everyone can do, but it's something plenty of guys have done while not being able to stick in the major leagues.

Edited June 28, 2012 by David

[jersey cubs fan]

i guess i should have more painstakingly vetted the specific verbiage i had put for that, so as to (hopefully) avoid your tiresome semantical-quibbling fixation

 

It's not semantics. LaHair has a pretty crappy resume. His numbers during this slump are closer to realistic expectations than his numbers during his hot streak. It's just not true that he provides some sort of guaranteed improvement. It's nonsensical to ignore the fact that he's a 29 year old who took forever to do anything in the minors and those guys are almost always nothing more than a flash in the pan.

[sneakypower]

i guess i should have more painstakingly vetted the specific verbiage i had put for that, so as to (hopefully) avoid your tiresome semantical-quibbling fixation

 

You could've made almost this exact same case you're trying to make for Micah Hoffpauir.

Hoffpauir through 302 PA: .787 OPS, small platoon split

LaHair through 301 PA: .890 OPS, huge platoon split

 

sure, i guess he could still wash out, but the argument that you can definitively make sweeping judgments of a player based on only a month's worth of at-bats is just so patently absurd