Sean Marshall traded: T Wood +prospects Sappelt &Torreys p21

[CyHawk_Cub]

Jake he was a reliever we had for one more year. Getting any kind of value back for him is a win. Why is that so hard to figure out? Marshall is more valuable to a good team, we aren't a good team. Wood will be in our rotation, this makes us better. Plus we got two lottery tickets. One of which had a great year as an eighteen year old in the Midwest league.

 

Pretty much. We sold high and got the better end of the deal but it's not exactly something that's going to be a franchise changer or even worth gloating about. I guess we're just not used to selling high on players.

 

Yeah, this move in isolation obviously isn't a "franchise changer" but the philosophy & plan underlying it sure is.

[TruffleShuffle]

Okay, I confused things. Someone on redszone said Goldstein didn't like his defense. I know Goldstein wasn't high on his defense in early 2011, not sure how he feels now.

 

no idea where you're getting that from. i looked for torreyes on BP and there were only a couple of mentions from early 2011, and neither one included anything about his defense. then this was in one of his monday ten-packs from june:

 

Ronald Torreyes, 2B, Reds (Low-A Dayton)

Torreyes was the talk of Reds camp this spring, as even big-league manager Dusty Baker was publicly praising the 18-year-old Venezuelan's hitting ability, a rare feat for a player who entered the year with just 24 games of experience in North America after hitting .390/.468/.606 for the Reds’ Venezuelan Summer League affiliate. Expected to begin the year in a short-season league, the Reds surprised many by putting him on the Dayton roster over the weekend, where he went 4-for-8 in his first two games. Listed at 5-foot-9 and 140 pounds, Torreyes is hardly an imposing physical presence, but he combines excellent bat speed with fantastic hands and an instinctual feel for hard contact. Throw in plus speed and excellent defensive skills, and a player that was expected to be one of the ones to watch in the Pioneer League is going to give us much more information by being challenged at a higher level.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Yet another statistical take on why I love this trade and Travis Wood.

 

Travis Wood career peripherals

7.0 K/9 2.9 BB/9 0.8 HR/9 (in an extreme HR park)

 

2011 NL average for starting pitchers

6.9 K/9 3.1 BB/9 1.0 HR/9

 

Seriously, we just stole a 25-year-old league-average (maybe even a little better) starter with one year of service time.

[RammyFanny]

Yet another statistical take on why I love this trade and Travis Wood.

 

Travis Wood career peripherals

7.0 K/9 2.9 BB/9 0.8 HR/9 (in an extreme HR park)

 

2011 NL average for starting pitchers

6.9 K/9 3.1 BB/9 1.0 HR/9

 

Seriously, we just stole a 25-year-old league-average (maybe even a little better) starter with one year of service time.

Not to mention he still has a ton of room for improvement. I read (probably in this thread) that his 4-seamer is considered his worst pitch, yet he throws it more than any other offering (not surprising I suppose). Maybe a little tweaking to what he throws and how often he throws it and things could get pretty interesting.

[TruffleShuffle]

i don't think there's much potential for development. his fastball isn't fast enough and his control isn't that great. he's fine as a back-end guy and may top out as a little above average, but i can't see him being any more than that. which is fine... those guys have plenty of value so that you're not dumping several million a year for the jon garlands and randy wolfs of the world, or having guys like casey coleman and doug davis in your rotation.

[imb]

It's really cool thinking of what we've learned as fans in the last decade.

 

i remember joining this site only because i really liked the idea of a building a deep farm system and cubs.com was opposed to that idea for some ungodly reason. I only knew about batting average and RBIs.

 

Three years ago I considered myself a smart fan, but i never would have properly valued the worth of these cost-controlled years.

[RammyFanny]

i don't think there's much potential for development. his fastball isn't fast enough and his control isn't that great. he's fine as a back-end guy and may top out as a little above average, but i can't see him being any more than that. which is fine... those guys have plenty of value so that you're not dumping several million a year for the jon garlands and randy wolfs of the world, or having guys like casey coleman and doug davis in your rotation.

I don't mean development in that he's going to suddenly develop into an ace, but he can still find a consistent middle ground between his rookie season and last season which is solid as heck given his price tag (Pretty much reiterating what you just said).

[TruffleShuffle]

Three years ago I considered myself a smart fan, but i never would have properly valued the worth of these cost-controlled years.

 

i was reading the twitter quotes from theo about t. wood's cost-controlled years and torreyes having an advanced contact tool playing as a teenager in full-season ball and thinking "boy jim hendry really wouldn't have said stuff like this"

[Hairyducked Idiot]

i don't think there's much potential for development. his fastball isn't fast enough and his control isn't that great. he's fine as a back-end guy and may top out as a little above average, but i can't see him being any more than that. which is fine... those guys have plenty of value so that you're not dumping several million a year for the jon garlands and randy wolfs of the world, or having guys like casey coleman and doug davis in your rotation.

 

That's about where I have him.

 

The more I look at Sappelt, the more I'm not quite ready to give up on him as an everyday LFer. Not a "this position is set forever" starter, but not an "oh crap, we can't find somebody better than *him* to start?" starter either.

 

His 2011 ZIPS projection had him at .282 .324 .405 for 2011, and I think that's reasonable with full-time duty in 2012. I could easily see him adding another 10-15 points of batting average (and thus OBP and SLG) to that, too. The NL average LFer last year hit 259/328/421. If he can play plus defense in LF like the scouting reports say he can, the ZIPS projection would make him maybe a 2.5 WAR starter in LF.

 

To be perfectly honest, I'm having trouble making a case that he's not better than Soriano right now. Maybe he's our starting LFer for 2012?

I wouldn't be stunned to see

[TruffleShuffle]

Three years ago I considered myself a smart fan, but i never would have properly valued the worth of these cost-controlled years.

 

i was reading the twitter quotes from theo about t. wood's cost-controlled years and torreyes having an advanced contact tool playing as a teenager in full-season ball and thinking "boy jim hendry really wouldn't have said stuff like this"

 

i will also add that hendry never, ever would have made this trade. marshall is a good player and hendry never grasped the concept of selling high or acquiring young, cost-controlled assets for an asset that is very good but about to become expensive.

[KaiserCesar]

Could this set up soriano being shipped off? With Sappelt, you got a guy who could get a lot of use from the available plate appearances at the positions.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Could this set up soriano being shipped off? With Sappelt, you got a guy who could get a lot of use from the available plate appearances at the positions.

 

I really think it almost has to.

[TruffleShuffle]

Could this set up soriano being shipped off? With Sappelt, you got a guy who could get a lot of use from the available plate appearances at the positions.

 

if they found a trade partner willing to take a significant portion of soriano's salary, they'd do it without worrying if there was a replacement within the organization.

[bukie]

So the Cubs traded a short-term player at peak value for three assets undervalued by traditional analysis but underrated according to advanced statistical projections?

 

Sounds like the type of deal a young, stats-oriented front office would make with an old school, more traditional front office.

Edited December 23, 2011 by bukie

[NewUserName]

Jake, how do you feel about Pedro Alvarez? Why aren't they keeping him at third?

Pedro, to be kind, Sucked last year.

 

The optimist in me says he'll be OK. There's just too much power there.

 

As for position, even before he was drafted, people were saying he'd eventually be a 1B. He's a big guy who has a reputation of not being mobile. Let's see what happens this season. Many pirate fans have written him off already. Me? I think there's too much talent there. He's supposedly in great shape right now. Let's see what he does this year.

 

Having said that, his output last year is why we got McGeehee (sp?)

 

What? You got Casey McGehee because of Alvarez's poor season? This is a glaring example of why the Pirates are the worst organization in professional sports.

[TruffleShuffle]

What? You got Casey McGehee because of Alvarez's poor season? This is a glaring example of why the Pirates are the worst organization in professional sports.

 

not even close. neal huntington knows what he's doing.

[rocket]

Three years ago I considered myself a smart fan, but i never would have properly valued the worth of these cost-controlled years.

 

i was reading the twitter quotes from theo about t. wood's cost-controlled years and torreyes having an advanced contact tool playing as a teenager in full-season ball and thinking "boy jim hendry really wouldn't have said stuff like this"

 

i will also add that hendry never, ever would have made this trade. marshall is a good player and hendry never grasped the concept of selling high or acquiring young, cost-controlled assets for an asset that is very good but about to become expensive.

 

to be fair, hendry unloading derosa was definitely a sell high move.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Three years ago I considered myself a smart fan, but i never would have properly valued the worth of these cost-controlled years.

 

i was reading the twitter quotes from theo about t. wood's cost-controlled years and torreyes having an advanced contact tool playing as a teenager in full-season ball and thinking "boy jim hendry really wouldn't have said stuff like this"

 

i will also add that hendry never, ever would have made this trade. marshall is a good player and hendry never grasped the concept of selling high or acquiring young, cost-controlled assets for an asset that is very good but about to become expensive.

 

to be fair, hendry unloading derosa was definitely a sell high move.

 

True, but that fact that the main reason they unloaded DeRosa was to sign Bradley makes it somewhat of a tainted win.

[Wrigley Rat]

i don't think there's much potential for development. his fastball isn't fast enough and his control isn't that great. he's fine as a back-end guy and may top out as a little above average, but i can't see him being any more than that. which is fine... those guys have plenty of value so that you're not dumping several million a year for the jon garlands and randy wolfs of the world, or having guys like casey coleman and doug davis in your rotation.

 

That's about where I have him.

 

The more I look at Sappelt, the more I'm not quite ready to give up on him as an everyday LFer. Not a "this position is set forever" starter, but not an "oh crap, we can't find somebody better than *him* to start?" starter either.

 

His 2011 ZIPS projection had him at .282 .324 .405 for 2011, and I think that's reasonable with full-time duty in 2012. I could easily see him adding another 10-15 points of batting average (and thus OBP and SLG) to that, too. The NL average LFer last year hit 259/328/421. If he can play plus defense in LF like the scouting reports say he can, the ZIPS projection would make him maybe a 2.5 WAR starter in LF.

 

To be perfectly honest, I'm having trouble making a case that he's not better than Soriano right now. Maybe he's our starting LFer for 2012?

I wouldn't be stunned to see

Looking at the current Cubs' roster of players, it sure seems that Sveum could find decent success utilizing platoons at several positions. I don't know Sappelt's minor league L/R splits, but giving DeJesus and Stewart time off against lefties would seem like a smart idea. Reed Johnson/Sappelt and Jeff Baker should be in against lefties for them. I could see Byrd and Soriano traded off making it easier to get playing time for B. Jackson, maybe Campana, and maybe DeWitt could take more time away from Barney, etc.

[RammyFanny]

Three years ago I considered myself a smart fan, but i never would have properly valued the worth of these cost-controlled years.

 

i was reading the twitter quotes from theo about t. wood's cost-controlled years and torreyes having an advanced contact tool playing as a teenager in full-season ball and thinking "boy jim hendry really wouldn't have said stuff like this"

 

i will also add that hendry never, ever would have made this trade. marshall is a good player and hendry never grasped the concept of selling high or acquiring young, cost-controlled assets for an asset that is very good but about to become expensive.

 

to be fair, hendry unloading derosa was definitely a sell high move.

 

True, but that fact that the main reason they unloaded DeRosa was to sign Bradley makes it somewhat of a tainted win.

DeRosa is a fair point, but Hendry loses points for deeming Marshall untradeable at the deadline. The least he could have done was listen (at least I think Marshall was among the Hendry self-proclaimed untouchables).

[davearm2]

DeRosa is a fair point, but Hendry loses points for deeming Marshall untradeable at the deadline. The least he could have done was listen (at least I think Marshall was among the Hendry self-proclaimed untouchables).

Hendry deserves bonus points for allowing the next GM to plot the team's course.

[davearm2]

Three years ago I considered myself a smart fan, but i never would have properly valued the worth of these cost-controlled years.

 

i was reading the twitter quotes from theo about t. wood's cost-controlled years and torreyes having an advanced contact tool playing as a teenager in full-season ball and thinking "boy jim hendry really wouldn't have said stuff like this"

 

i will also add that hendry never, ever would have made this trade. marshall is a good player and hendry never grasped the concept of selling high or acquiring young, cost-controlled assets for an asset that is very good but about to become expensive.

Two things:

 

Hendry never had the job security to make a "rebuilding" trade like this. (Granted, he may not have done so even if he could.)

 

Advanced contact tools and teenagers in full-season ball are exactly the kinds of things scouts like Hendry talk about.

[davell]

I think Theo has channeled his inner Ricky Bobby. "If you ain't first, you're last." By the way, Levine kind of floated a package from Toronto for Garza, although he certainly has no clue as to who the centerpiece would be. He mentioned Deck McGuire as the centerpiece, Jake Marisnick, and Justin Nicolino. Personally, I like it a lot. But, if the Yanks offered Montero and one of Banuelos or Betances, I'm not sure which I'd take. Montero is certainly the best prospect, but I think Nicolino is right there potential-wise with either of the Yankee pitchers, just further away. It'd come down to whether Marisnick and McGuire is worth more than Montero. I guess I doubt it is, but it's close for me at least. Replace McGuire with Syndergaard or Hutchison and I'd take the Jays deal.

[RammyFanny]

DeRosa is a fair point, but Hendry loses points for deeming Marshall untradeable at the deadline. The least he could have done was listen (at least I think Marshall was among the Hendry self-proclaimed untouchables).

Hendry deserves bonus points for allowing the next GM to plot the team's course.

Meh, good point. Forgot. I concede.

[17 Seconds]

You got a back end starter and two fringe prospects. A good trade, perhaps, but nothing that's going to put any team over the top.

 

yea that's what we were looking to get for marshall- guys who could put us over the top.