Cubs trade for Ian Stewart/Weathers pg. 5 (Colvin+DJ)

[Bryants Disco Ball]

So far, I think Theo has been brainwashed into believing he is running the Pirates.

 

 

This is just ridiculous. And stupid.

 

Yup.

 

1. Some people tend to forget that our biggest acquisition happened well before the Winter Meetings.

 

2. Some people need to realize that Theo Epstein is very good at what he does. Feel free to question him, because it's not like anybody is perfect, but I trust Theo knows what he wants to do and has a plan. I trust him to carry it out better than any GM. If we don't make any big signings, I'm 100 percent on board with backing Epstein on that choice.

 

I will give him 10 years. My confidence in him will never sway during that time.

 

That's right. Ten years.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Yeah, but at what positions? What do his third base numbers look like?

 

Oops, you are right. He comes out a tiny bit above average as a 3b.

 

I'll revise my opinion of him upward to "adequate defensive 3b who can't really hit."

[XZero771679666304]

His numbers indicate he's already in decline. He's not HOF Pujols anymore. He'll rebound a bit next year, but imo he'll be a 2-3 WAR player at most five years from now.

 

His numbers took a dip this year to be sure and that's reason for concern, but I've not seen a steady decline. TT (I believe) pointed out earlier in the offseason that after a rough first couple of weeks to the season, Pujols was back to his old self in 2011. His numbers have dropped from his 2008 peak, but if you'll notice his LD% held steady from 2010 to 2011 and yet his BABIP dropped 20 points. Given the numbers TT posted and the drop in BABIP, I don't think it's all that out of line to think he could sit right around his 2010 numbers for the next 4-5 years and then drop off.

 

A 2-3 WAR player in at most 5 years is falling off a cliff, though, and I don't think he'll do that. I'm thinking he'll be a 3-5 WAR player around that time.

 

He's been in consistent decline for 4 years. Last year was a tad anomalous, but there's a clear year to year trend downward in OPS, OPS+ wOBA, WAR and a few others. His o-swing is also clearly trending in the wrong direction.

 

Everything looks like decline compared to two of his two best seasons, even the 4 years prior to 2008. His O-Swing hasn't really moved relative to the league average.

 

True, but it seems like a 10/250 contract is rewarding him for his best years, not paying for the production you're likely to get from here on out. The downward trend is clearly there, regardless of the apex it's moving away from.

 

Would I pay him 25MM per over the next five years? Without a doubt. But the second half would just be folly. Would you give him 10/250 right now?

[sneakypower]

It kinda seems like he's Brett Jackson at 3B if Brett Jackson doesn't reach his ceiling but doesn't entirely tank.

 

And plays sub-average defense.

as evidenced by his plus ratings via UZR, TZ, DRS...really every advanced fielding metric

 

(you're coming off as an ignorant, pompous ass right now)

 

UZR has him at -3.4 fielding runs for his career, Baseball-Reference has him at -0.3 dWAR for his career. I guess Baseball Prospectus does have him as 0.1 FRAA for his career.

fitting, that you've clearly you've had your fingers in your ears, shouting, the numerous times it was explained that his fielding WAR had been greatly hampered from playing out of position in 08 & 09

[dew1679666265]

He's been in consistent decline for 4 years. Last year was a tad anomalous, but there's a clear year to year trend downward in OPS, OPS+ wOBA, WAR and a few others. His o-swing is also clearly trending in the wrong direction.

 

There was a very slight drop from 2008 to 2009 (.013 in OPS, .009 in wOBA, .1 in WAR) and then a clear drop from 2009 to 2010. Last year he clearly dropped again, but largely due to a dreadful first two weeks of the year (after which he was back to his old self) and a drop in BABIP with a steady LD%.

 

Albert Pujols on April 11: .150/.222/.225/.447

 

Albert Pujols after April 11: 155 games, 688 PA's, .314/.420/.578/.998 with 41 HR

 

I'm not arguing that you should ignore the first few days of the season, but if you take the 155 games Tiger isolated there, plus the playoffs, you get an over 1.000 OPS in a full season's worth of games. Or a very similar season to 2010 - meaning he was pretty steady from 2008 to 2009, dropped to 2010 level and then held steady there in 2011.

[Guest]

You're teetering a fine line between your relentless pursuit to be at least a little different from popular opinion and outright trolling.

 

In the minors, he spent a couple years at AAA Colorado Springs, a ridiculously hitter-friendly environment.

 

Then in the majors, he spent his home games at Coors Field with its 110 park factors. The Rockies have been giving him a large percentage of his at-bats against his favorable platoon matchup every year.

 

This isn't trolling or giving two poops about what everyone else thinks. I really don't like Ian Stewart as a player. If everyone decides tomorrow that they agree, then I'll still really dislike him as a player.

 

His platoon and home road split are both a career .030 difference in OPS. Try harder.

[weis21]

So far, I think Theo has been brainwashed into believing he is running the Pirates.

 

 

This is just ridiculous. And stupid.

 

True. The Cubs' organization is in much worse shape than the Pirates'.

Right on cue.

 

Is anyone really losing sleep over DJL? It's not even boom or bust. It's boom or "meh". It's absolutely a gamble worth taking. That said, if the Cubs plan is to hand the job over to Stewart, then they must (and obviously expect them to) improve at at least a couple other positions. I have full faith in Theo and Co.

[Guest]

Dew, that 155 games includes the playoffs.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

His platoon and home road split are both a career .030 difference in OPS. Try harder.

 

So he's done a bad job of taking advantage of his home park. Point for him?

 

His road numbers are 229/309/427 despite being hidden in a platoon. Hooray?

[Guest]

I like it. Colvin was a spare when they signed DeJesus and his wife. They traded little value for a guy with a good track record who may need a change. I wasn't that enamored with DJ. I wonder if the Cubs will continue to draft LSU middle infielders with Hendry gone:

[CUBZ99]

So far, I think Theo has been brainwashed into believing he is running the Pirates.

 

 

This is just ridiculous. And stupid.

 

Yup.

 

1. Some people tend to forget that our biggest acquisition happened well before the Winter Meetings.

 

2. Some people need to realize that Theo Epstein is very good at what he does. Feel free to question him, because it's not like anybody is perfect, but I trust Theo knows what he wants to do and has a plan. I trust him to carry it out better than any GM. If we don't make any big signings, I'm 100 percent on board with backing Epstein on that choice.

 

I will give him 10 years. My confidence in him will never sway during that time.

 

That's right. Ten years.

 

I like the Kool Aid, but let's face it, so far this off season hasn't been much different than if Hendry were still running the team. My guess is that one of the only big differences would have been that Hendry would have protected Flaherty.

 

I hope that I'm wrong, but I would have rather kept DJ and given him a chance.

[XZero771679666304]

His platoon and home road split are both a career .030 difference in OPS. Try harder.

 

So he's done a bad job of taking advantage of his home park. Point for him?

 

 

Really?

[dew1679666265]

Without having to waste too much of anybody's time, can somebody educate me as to why Headley was wanted so much?

 

I realize he plays in a pitcher's park, but his numbers don't seem that impressive at 27 to be talking about giving up legit prospects for him. His OBP was very good last season, but he doesn't seem to have great power for a corner guy and his .343 OBP is less than stellar.

 

He put up some really nice AAA numbers before moving into the extreme pitchers' park, is only 27, is a better OBP guy than Stewart, UZR/150 has him as a better defender than Stewart, his numbers have quite possibly been hurt by his park and Stewart's quite possibly have been helped, and he showed clear improvement in 2011 while Stewart fell apart.

 

There's also the report that Headley may have adjusted his swing to make him a better hitter in PetCo, but hurting his power overall. If he readjusted his swing in Chicago, it could result in a power increase.

[Guest]

His platoon and home road split are both a career .030 difference in OPS. Try harder.

 

So he's done a bad job of taking advantage of his home park. Point for him?

 

His road numbers are 229/309/427 despite being hidden in a platoon. Hooray?

 

 

Is he "hiding himself in the most hitter-friendly situations possible to fool people into thinking he's adequate", or is he "doing a bad job of taking advantage of his home park"?

 

"Hidden in a platoon" Ian Stewart has 22% of his PA's against LHP. Albert Pujols is at 25%. At the absolute most, it's a difference of 100 PA's, and a negligible difference in his overall production, because (again) he doesn't have a platoon split.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Really?

 

Yes. We had this discussion during the Kemp/Braun MVP debate. A narrow split doesn't absolve a player of playing in a friendly home environment.

[Guest]

How come nobody is talking about this wrist injury in 2011? I felt like I hadn't even heard about it before Levine mentioned it on the radio.

[dew1679666265]

Dew, that 155 games includes the playoffs.

 

Woops, didn't realize that. That makes it a bit of a steeper decline, but still nothing to indicate he's on the verge of a cliff dive.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

So far, I think Theo has been brainwashed into believing he is running the Pirates.

 

 

This is just ridiculous. And stupid.

 

Yup.

 

1. Some people tend to forget that our biggest acquisition happened well before the Winter Meetings.

 

2. Some people need to realize that Theo Epstein is very good at what he does. Feel free to question him, because it's not like anybody is perfect, but I trust Theo knows what he wants to do and has a plan. I trust him to carry it out better than any GM. If we don't make any big signings, I'm 100 percent on board with backing Epstein on that choice.

 

I will give him 10 years. My confidence in him will never sway during that time.

 

That's right. Ten years.

 

I like the Kool Aid, but let's face it, so far this off season hasn't been much different than if Hendry were still running the team. My guess is that one of the only big differences would have been that Hendry would have protected Flaherty.

 

I hope that I'm wrong, but I would have rather kept DJ and given him a chance.

 

My friend, Hendry left this organization in a pretty bad state. A $135 million payroll that couldn't produce on the field.

 

Epstein is in the so very early stages of cleaning up an ENTIRE organization. That can't and will not happen in four days at the Winter Meetings or in one offseason. Epstein is not and will not make transactions just to get Cubs fans excited if he doesn't believe they are best for the long-term growth of this team. It takes a while to build up to what we hope is sustained success.

 

I'm not asking you to believe in some rookie here. Make all the excuses you want about his time in Boston. Theo won two rings and did it in a market that went quite a long time without one. He is smarter than all of us, and he's the best at his job.

 

If you don't want to give him 10 years, at least give him more than one month.

[XZero771679666304]

Really?

 

Yes. We had this discussion during the Kemp/Braun MVP debate. A narrow split doesn't absolve a player of playing in a friendly home environment.

 

So then the knocks of being helped by a home park or not "taking advantage" of it become two angles that can be used to support whichever side of an argument you choose to take? How convenient.

[dew1679666265]

How come nobody is talking about this wrist injury in 2011? I felt like I hadn't even heard about it before Levine mentioned it on the radio.

 

I see two ways of looking at it, depending on your bias: Either 1) it's a sign that his numbers were artificially depressed last year and he'll rebound now that he's healthy, or 2) it was a pretty significant injury to his wrist and could have permanent effects on his ability to drive the ball consistently. Myself, I'm not sure what to think. I'll just trust Theo that 1 is closer to reality than 2.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Is he "hiding himself in the most hitter-friendly situations possible to fool people into thinking he's adequate", or is he "doing a bad job of taking advantage of his home park"?

 

Both. I don't see how those are contradictory. The fact that his Coors numbers aren't wildly above his road numbers doesn't mean they wouldn't be even worse without them. This was pretty much universally agreed on (though in reverse with a pitcher's park) during the Kemp/Braun MVP discussion. But I suppose I'm just being contrarian by bringing it up now.

 

"Hidden in a platoon" Ian Stewart has 22% of his PA's against LHP. Albert Pujols is at 25%. At the absolute most, it's a difference of 100 PA's, and a negligible difference in his overall production, because (again) he doesn't have a platoon split.

 

You got me. For some reason I was thinking a normal split is more like 60/40. Point withdrawn.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Really?

 

Yes. We had this discussion during the Kemp/Braun MVP debate. A narrow split doesn't absolve a player of playing in a friendly home environment.

 

So then the knocks of being helped by a home park or not "taking advantage" of it become two angles that can be used to support whichever side of an argument you choose to take? How convenient.

 

No. There's pretty much only one way to take it: Adjust for home park whether the splits show it or not.

[CUBZ99]

So far, I think Theo has been brainwashed into believing he is running the Pirates.

 

 

This is just ridiculous. And stupid.

 

Yup.

 

1. Some people tend to forget that our biggest acquisition happened well before the Winter Meetings.

 

2. Some people need to realize that Theo Epstein is very good at what he does. Feel free to question him, because it's not like anybody is perfect, but I trust Theo knows what he wants to do and has a plan. I trust him to carry it out better than any GM. If we don't make any big signings, I'm 100 percent on board with backing Epstein on that choice.

 

I will give him 10 years. My confidence in him will never sway during that time.

 

That's right. Ten years.

 

I like the Kool Aid, but let's face it, so far this off season hasn't been much different than if Hendry were still running the team. My guess is that one of the only big differences would have been that Hendry would have protected Flaherty.

 

I hope that I'm wrong, but I would have rather kept DJ and given him a chance.

 

My friend, Hendry left this organization in a pretty bad state. A $135 million payroll that couldn't produce on the field.

 

Epstein is in the so very early stages of cleaning up an ENTIRE organization. That can't and will not happen in four days at the Winter Meetings or in one offseason. Epstein is not and will not make transactions just to get Cubs fans excited if he doesn't believe they are best for the long-term growth of this team. It takes a while to build up to what we hope is sustained success.

 

I'm not asking you to believe in some rookie here. Make all the excuses you want about his time in Boston. Theo won two rings and did it in a market that went quite a long time without one. He is smarter than all of us, and he's the best at his job.

 

If you don't want to give him 10 years, at least give him more than one month.

 

I realize he stepped into a mess, but he has done nothing to inspire any confidence so far. I'm holding out hope that the Cubs are in on Fielder, or Darvish or the Cuban guys, because so far we have seen him acting like a small market Pres/GM.

[OleMissCub]

It kinda seems like he's Brett Jackson at 3B if Brett Jackson doesn't reach his ceiling but doesn't entirely tank.

 

And plays sub-average defense.

 

He also molests collies in his free time.

 

And keeps hiding himself in the most hitter-friendly situations possible to fool people into thinking he's adequate.

 

You're teetering a fine line between your relentless pursuit to be at least a little different from popular opinion and outright trolling.

 

Maybe I've missed a few pages between you guys, but Ian Stewart just isn't that good. You are doing an admirable job defending his barely mediocre stats, but c'mon, this is a very lackluster signing.

 

I'm trusting Theo though....

Edited December 9, 2011 by OleMissCub

[WilcoFan]

So far, I think Theo has been brainwashed into believing he is running the Pirates.

 

 

This is just ridiculous. And stupid.

 

Yup.

 

1. Some people tend to forget that our biggest acquisition happened well before the Winter Meetings.

 

2. Some people need to realize that Theo Epstein is very good at what he does. Feel free to question him, because it's not like anybody is perfect, but I trust Theo knows what he wants to do and has a plan. I trust him to carry it out better than any GM. If we don't make any big signings, I'm 100 percent on board with backing Epstein on that choice.

 

I will give him 10 years. My confidence in him will never sway during that time.

 

That's right. Ten years.

 

I like the Kool Aid, but let's face it, so far this off season hasn't been much different than if Hendry were still running the team. My guess is that one of the only big differences would have been that Hendry would have protected Flaherty.

 

I hope that I'm wrong, but I would have rather kept DJ and given him a chance.

 

 

This is the same DJ LeMahieu that doesn't have a position and had an OPS of .694 at AAA last year, right? There's isn't some other DJ LeMahieu?

 

The criticism after one MONTH of Epstein/Hoyer makes me think that Cubs' fans deserved Jim Hendry.