NCAA Tourney Mock Selection 2011

[bukie]

1) Rank the following 12 teams in order for the next 8 spots on the S-Curve:

 

San Diego State

Wisconsin     

North Carolina 

Kentucky       

Syracuse       

Louisville     

Florida       

Connecticut   

Arizona       

West Virginia 

Georgetown     

St. John's     

 

 

2) Rank the next 12 teams from auto bids/at-large for placement on the S-Curve.

 

UNLV

Xavier

Texas A&M

Temple

Kansas State

Cincinnati

Marquette

Vanderbilt

Old Dominion

Gonzaga

Florida State

Washington

 

 

3) Rank the top 12 teams in consideration for potential at-large pool placement. One will be placed for sure, the next 7-9 will be placed in potential spots barring bid theft (If Utah State is one of them, they are another potential auto bid from a conference).

 

Utah State

George Mason

Michigan

Richmond

Georgia

Michigan State

Colorado

Saint Mary's

Boston College

New Mexico

Penn State

Virginia Tech

 

4) Rank the bottom 16 teams in consideration for removal (there are more to remove than to place).

 

Memphis

UAB

Maryland

Colorado State

Rhode Island

Minnesota

California

Nebraska

Baylor

Alabama

Duquesne

Oklahoma State

Northwestern

Cleveland State

Harvard

Wichita State

 

5) Rank the bottom 12 auto-bids (placeholder teams in parentheses for conferences not yet done with tournaments) for placement at the bottom of the S-Curve.

 

68. SWAC (Jackson State)

67. MEAC (Hampton)

66. Arkansas-Little Rock (Sun Belt)

65. Southland (Sam Houston State)

64. UNC Asheville (Big South)

63. America East (Vermont)

62. MAC (Kent State)

61. Northern Colorado (Big Sky)

60. Long Island (NEC)

59. St. Peter's (MAAC)

58. Morehead State (OVC)

57. Patriot (Bucknell)

 

[bukie]

4) Rank the bottom 16 teams in consideration for removal (there are more to remove than to place).

 

1 - Cleveland State

2 - UAB

3 - Northwestern

4 - UTEP

5 - Washington State

6 - Duquesne

7 - Baylor

8 - Colorado State

9 - Rhode Island

10 - Penn State

11 - Oklahoma State

12 - VCU

13 - Minnesota

14 - Mississippi

15 - California

16 - Nebraska

 

I look at that and honestly have no idea which is the low end and which is the high end.

[Andy]

4) Rank the bottom 16 teams in consideration for removal (there are more to remove than to place).

 

1 - Cleveland State

2 - UAB

3 - Northwestern

4 - UTEP

5 - Washington State

6 - Duquesne

7 - Baylor

8 - Colorado State

9 - Rhode Island

10 - Penn State

11 - Oklahoma State

12 - VCU

13 - Minnesota

14 - Mississippi

15 - California

16 - Nebraska

 

I look at that and honestly have no idea which is the low end and which is the high end.

The numbers are just placeholders. There is no order whatsoever there.

[bukie]

4) Rank the bottom 16 teams in consideration for removal (there are more to remove than to place).

 

1 - Cleveland State

2 - UAB

3 - Northwestern

4 - UTEP

5 - Washington State

6 - Duquesne

7 - Baylor

8 - Colorado State

9 - Rhode Island

10 - Penn State

11 - Oklahoma State

12 - VCU

13 - Minnesota

14 - Mississippi

15 - California

16 - Nebraska

 

I look at that and honestly have no idea which is the low end and which is the high end.

The numbers are just placeholders. There is no order whatsoever there.

Could you put them in some kind of order so I can run quantitative analysis on it? (basically doing a comparison to other lists with the intent of removing the bottom X clear choices)

[Andy]

I changed the order, which now runs from worst teams to best.

[Guest]

1) Rank the following 12 teams in order for the next 8 spots on the S-Curve:

 

 

Wisconsin

Syracuse

Florida

North Carolina

Georgetown

San Diego State

West Virginia

Louisville

Kentucky

St. John's

Arizona

Kentucky

 

 

2) Rank the next 12 teams from auto bids/at-large for placement on the S-Curve.

 

UNLV

Xavier

Texas A&M

Temple

Kansas State

Illinois

Vanderbilt

Old Dominion

Cincinnati

Marquette

Gonzaga

Florida State

 

 

3) Rank the top 12 teams in consideration for potential at-large pool placement. One will be placed for sure, the next 7-9 will be placed in potential spots barring bid theft (If Utah State is one of them, they are another potential auto bid from a conference).

 

 

Colorado

George Mason

St. Mary's

Michigan

Utah State

Virginia Tech

Michigan State

Richmond

VCU

Boston College

Minnesota

Missouri St

 

 

4) Rank the bottom 16 teams in consideration for removal (there are more to remove than to place).

Worst to best

 

 

Memphis

Baylor

UAB

Oklahoma St

Mississippi

Northwestern

UTEP

Rhode Island

California

Colorado St

New Mexico

USC

Alabama

Harvard

Duquesne

Penn State

 

 

5) Rank the bottom 12 auto-bids (placeholder teams in parentheses for conferences not yet done with tournaments) for placement at the bottom of the S-Curve.

 

 

68. SWAC (Jackson State)

67. MEAC (Hampton)

66. Arkansas-Little Rock (Sun Belt)

65. Southland (Sam Houston State)

64. UNC Asheville (Big South)

63. America East (Vermont)

62. St. Peter's (MAAC)

61. Big West - (Long Beach State)

60. Long Island (NEC)

59. Northern Colorado (Big Sky)

58. MAC (Kent State)

57. Patriot (Bucknell)

 

[SouthSideRyan]

1) Rank the following 12 teams in order for the next 8 spots on the S-Curve:

 

SDSU

CUSE

WIS

UNC

UCONN

FL

GTOWN

LOU

UK

WV

ZONA

SJU

 

 

2) Rank the next 12 teams from auto bids/at-large for placement on the S-Curve.

 

KSU

UNLV

UCLA

A&M

ODU

Vanderbilt

Marquette

Temple

Zags

Nova

Cin

Xavier

 

3) Rank the top 12 teams in consideration for potential at-large pool placement. One will be placed for sure, the next 7-9 will be placed in potential spots barring bid theft (If Utah State is one of them, they are another potential auto bid from a conference).

 

USU

VT

NM

Michigan

Colorado

MSU

Richmond

Georgia

PSU

G Mason

Washington St

St. Mary's

 

4) Rank the bottom 16 teams in consideration for removal (there are more to remove than to place).

Worst to best

 

Baylor

Nebraska

Rhode Island

Cleveland St

UAB

Minnesota

Missouri State

Colorado State

Cal

Wichita St

Memphis

UTEP

Duquesne

OK State

Mississippi

Harvard

 

 

 

5) Rank the bottom 12 auto-bids (placeholder teams in parentheses for conferences not yet done with tournaments) for placement at the bottom of the S-Curve.

 

57. Kent St

58 St Peters

59 Morehead

60 N Colorado

61 Long Beach

62 NC-ASH

63 Long Island

64 BU

65 UT-SA

66 Hampton

67 ARK-LR

68. Jackson St

 

[hawkeyecub]

1) Rank the following 12 in order for the next 8 spots on the S-curve:

 

 

UNC

Syracuse

Florida

Wisconsin

San Diego State

UCONN

Louisville

Kentucky

Arizona

West Virginia

St. John's

Georgetown

 

 

2) Rank the next 12 teams from auto bids/at-large for placement on the S-Curve.

 

Xavier

Kansas State

UNLV

A&M

Vanderbilt

UCLA

Old Dominion

Cincinnati

Temple

Georgetown

Marquette

George Mason

Villanova

 

 

3) Rank the top 12 teams in consideration for potential at-large pool placement.

 

Utah State

Colorado

Florida State

Gonzaga

Illinois

Washington

Missouri

Michigan

Tennessee

Richmond

MSU

St. Mary's

 

 

4) Rank the bottom 16 teams in consideration for removal (there are more to remove than to place).

 

Memphis

Baylor

Nebraska

Minnesota

Cleveland State

Ole Miss

Northwestern

Rhode Island

Cal

Wichita State

Okie State

Colorado State

 

 

5) Rank the bottom 12 auto-bids (placeholder teams in parentheses for conferences not yet done with tournaments) for placement at the bottom of the S-Curve.

 

68. Jackson State

67. Ark-LR

66. Hampton

65. Sam Houston State

64. UT-SA

63. Vermont

62. Long Island

61. St. Peter's

60. Bucknell

59. Northern Colorado

58. Kent State

57. Long Beach

 

[bukie]

Meeting in 5, will run analysis afterwards.

[bukie]

Updated S-Curve top 16:

1. Ohio State

2. Kansas

3. Pittsburgh

4. Duke

5. Notre Dame

6. Purdue

7. Texas

8. BYU

9. Wisconsin     

10. North Carolina 

11. Syracuse       

12. San Diego State

13. Florida       

14. Louisville     

15. Connecticut   

16. Kentucky       

[Old Style]

2) Rank the next 12 teams from auto bids/at-large for placement on the S-Curve.

1 - UNLV

2 - Xavier

3 - Tennessee

4 - Temple

5 - Florida State

6 - Cincinnati

7 - Illinois

8 - Washington

9 - Marquette

10 - Vanderbilt

11 - Kansas State

12 - Texas A&M

#12? Really? We beat #4, #8, and #11 on your list. Illinois at 9-9 in the Big Ten is better than us at 10-6 in the Big 12? Tennessee at 8-8 in the weak ass SEC is #3 in that group? I'm not saying we should be at the top of the list, but come on. Your list is all kinds of fucked up.

[bukie]

2) Rank the next 12 teams from auto bids/at-large for placement on the S-Curve.

1 - UNLV

2 - Xavier

3 - Tennessee

4 - Temple

5 - Florida State

6 - Cincinnati

7 - Illinois

8 - Washington

9 - Marquette

10 - Vanderbilt

11 - Kansas State

12 - Texas A&M

#12? Really? We beat #4, #8, and #11 on your list. Illinois at 9-9 in the Big Ten is better than us at 10-6 in the Big 12? Tennessee at 8-8 in the weak ass SEC is #3 in that group? I'm not saying we should be at the top of the list, but come on. Your list is all kinds of [expletive] up.

I can't even rank Illinois, but there is plenty of evidence to support Illinois being better than Texas A&M: significantly better non-con schedule and wins, better wins in conference (in a much tougher conference). The evidence to support Texas A&M being better is what? A&M's best win was arguably yesterday.

[Guest]

Feel free to submit your own lists so they can be criticized from the perspective of whatever team you inevitably shaft. It's not easy to do those lists, or at the very least it's extremely time consuming. That's why we want as many people as possible to make them the most accurate in aggregate.

[SouthSideRyan]

2) Rank the next 12 teams from auto bids/at-large for placement on the S-Curve.

1 - UNLV

2 - Xavier

3 - Tennessee

4 - Temple

5 - Florida State

6 - Cincinnati

7 - Illinois

8 - Washington

9 - Marquette

10 - Vanderbilt

11 - Kansas State

12 - Texas A&M

#12? Really? We beat #4, #8, and #11 on your list. Illinois at 9-9 in the Big Ten is better than us at 10-6 in the Big 12? Tennessee at 8-8 in the weak ass SEC is #3 in that group? I'm not saying we should be at the top of the list, but come on. Your list is all kinds of [expletive] up.

 

I have you 4th on my list (still behind KSU), but I mean, you were swept by Baylor. And for head to head, you beat Temple by 3 and Washington by 1 on your home court. It's not outrageous to have either behind you in spite of a 1 possession loss.

 

Illinois and Tennessee both have much better wins than A&M does and 9-9 in the Big Ten is certianly better than 10-6 in the Big XII South.

[bukie]

OK, analysis complete.

 

S-Curve top 16:

 

1. Ohio State

2. Kansas

3. Pittsburgh

4. Duke

5. Notre Dame

6. Purdue

7. Texas

8. BYU

9. Wisconsin

10. North Carolina

11. Syracuse

12. San Diego State

13. Florida

14. Louisville

15. Connecticut

16. Kentucky

 

 

S-Curve bottom 12 (15-16-play-in seeds):

 

59. Patriot (Bucknell)

60. St. Peter's (MAAC)

61. Northern Colorado (Big Sky)

62. Long Island (NEC)

63. UNC-Asheville (Big South)

64. America East (Boston U)

65. Southland (McNeese State)

66. Arkansas-Little Rock (Sun Belt)

67. MEAC (Hampton)

68. SWAC (Jackson State)

 

 

Next 16 for S-Curve placement:

 

Arizona       

Cincinnati

Florida State

Georgetown     

Illinois

Kansas State

Marquette

Old Dominion

St. John's     

Temple

Texas A&M

UCLA

UNLV

Vanderbilt

West Virginia 

Xavier

 

 

Remaining at-large board (15 spots max, potential loss of 9)

 

Boston College

Clemson

Colorado

George Mason

Georgia

Michigan

Michigan State

Missouri

Richmond

Saint Mary's

Tennessee

Utah State

Villanova

Virginia Tech

Washington

 

 

Unplaced auto bids (21):

 

Atlantic 10 - (Xavier)

ACC - (Duke)

Atlantic Sun - Belmont

Big 12 - (Kansas)

Big East - (Pittsburgh)

Big Ten - (Ohio State)

Big West - (Long Beach State)

Colonial - Old Dominion

Conference USA - (UTEP)

Horizon - Butler

Ivy - (Harvard)

Mid-American - (Kent State)

Missouri Valley - Indiana State

Mountain West - (BYU)

Ohio Valley - Morehead State

Pac-10 - (Arizona)

SEC - (Florida)

Southern - Wofford

Summit - Oakland

West Coast - Gonzaga

WAC - (Utah State)

 

 

Removed from consideration (16):

 

Baylor

California

Cleveland State

Colorado State

Duquesne

Maryland

Memphis

Minnesota

Mississippi

Nebraska

Northwestern

Oklahoma State

Rhode Island

UAB

UTEP

Wichita State

 

 

Currently out, but still up for discussion if desired (8):

 

Alabama

Harvard

Missouri State

New Mexico

Penn State

USC

VCU

Washington State

 

[Guest]

Is that not the worst group of 4 seeds you have ever seen?

[Old Style]

Illinois and Tennessee both have much better wins than A&M does and 9-9 in the Big Ten is certianly better than 10-6 in the Big XII South.

You overestimate the Big Ten. And just because we are in the South does not mean that we don't play the North teams. Illinois has losses to Indiana and UIC. Tennessee lost to Oakland (at home), Charlotte, and College of Charleston (at home). Our worst losses are twice to Baylor, who until this weekend were still considered a bubble team. We don't have a star and we play ugly basketball. I get that. But we beat Temple, Washington, K-State, Missouri (twice), @ Colorado. Again, I'm not saying we should be at the top of that list, but I think last is a little ridiculous. Right now, I'd say we are a solid 6 seed. Beat Texas tonight and we may be in the discussion for a 5.

[bukie]

Yes, I know that's a lot of lists, but it's simplifying things down as much as possible. :P

 

As for today...

 

Rank the next set of S-Curve teams from 1-16 (Illinois reps leave out Illinois, of course):

 

Arizona

Cincinnati

Florida State

Georgetown

Illinois

Kansas State

Marquette

Old Dominion

St. John's

Temple

Texas A&M

UCLA

UNLV

Vanderbilt

West Virginia

Xavier

 

 

2) Rank the remaining 15 at-larges. In the case of bid theft by non-at-large candidates, the lowest in this list will get bumped off the board.

 

Boston College

Clemson

Colorado

George Mason

Georgia

Michigan

Michigan State

Missouri

Richmond

Saint Mary's

Tennessee

Utah State

Villanova

Virginia Tech

Washington

 

 

3) Rank the bottom 12 auto-bids from the remaining unplaced bids, the aggregate bottom 8 of which will go into the bottom of the S-Curve.

 

4) Discuss pod placement for the top 16 in the S-Curve. I'll start the ball rolling after my next meeting. Remember the BYU rules.

Edited March 11, 2011 by bukie

[bukie]

Illinois and Tennessee both have much better wins than A&M does and 9-9 in the Big Ten is certianly better than 10-6 in the Big XII South.

You overestimate the Big Ten. And just because we are in the South does not mean that we don't play the North teams. Illinois has losses to Indiana and UIC. Tennessee lost to Oakland (at home), Charlotte, and College of Charleston (at home). Our worst losses are twice to Baylor, who until this weekend were still considered a bubble team. We don't have a star and we play ugly basketball. I get that. But we beat Temple, Washington, K-State, Missouri (twice), @ Colorado. Again, I'm not saying we should be at the top of that list, but I think last is a little ridiculous. Right now, I'd say we are a solid 6 seed. Beat Texas tonight and we may be in the discussion for a 5.

I'm sure you have a completely unbiased opinion of both A&M and the Big 12. You severely overestimate the Big 12 South, which is Texas and nobody. And you got blown out twice by Texas.

[Old Style]

I realize that my opinion of A&M is biased. The Big 12 South is not very good this year, but we are 3-0 against K-State and Missouri who are both in the tournament. We played KU tough at the Phog for about 35 minutes before we ran out of steam. Like I've said multiple times, I don't think we belong at the top of that list by any means. Pretty much everyone else that I saw had us somewhere in the middle of that grouping, which is probably where we belong.

[mul21]

Did Mizzou getting drilled last night have a big effect on where they sit? I'm surprised to see Illinois ahead of them in rankings at this point.

[Guest]

Did Mizzou getting drilled last night have a big effect on where they sit? I'm surprised to see Illinois ahead of them in rankings at this point.

 

Not really, they've been sitting on the 8/9 line since they lost to Nebraska.

[Old Style]

I went back and saw 5 people that posted their lists. Two had us at #3, two had us at #4, and then one at #12. Hmm, I must be way out of line here. All apologies.

[Guest]

I went back and saw 5 people that posted their lists. Two had us at #3, two had us at #4, and then one at #12. Hmm, I must be way out of line here. All apologies.

 

Totally worth it though. We'll all think twice next time about having one person's list drop aTm 1 spot on a fictitious NCAA S-Curve.

[SouthSideRyan]

Illinois and Tennessee both have much better wins than A&M does and 9-9 in the Big Ten is certianly better than 10-6 in the Big XII South.

You overestimate the Big Ten. And just because we are in the South does not mean that we don't play the North teams. Illinois has losses to Indiana and UIC. Tennessee lost to Oakland (at home), Charlotte, and College of Charleston (at home). Our worst losses are twice to Baylor, who until this weekend were still considered a bubble team. We don't have a star and we play ugly basketball. I get that. But we beat Temple, Washington, K-State, Missouri (twice), @ Colorado. Again, I'm not saying we should be at the top of that list, but I think last is a little ridiculous. Right now, I'd say we are a solid 6 seed. Beat Texas tonight and we may be in the discussion for a 5.

 

The Big Ten is ranked ahead of the Big XII in pretty much every ranking of any substance. I understand that you still play the north (once), but you also play Tech, OK, OK St, and Baylor twice each. Those are 4 teams roughly at or worse than the bottom of the Big Ten and you play half your games against them. Throw in a terrible Iowa State team, and a 500 record is damn near guaranteed for any halfway decent team.

 

Like I said, I had you 4th in my rankings, but the 4-9 seed group is a jumbled mess.