NCAA Tourney Mock Selection 2011

[bukie]

Alabama State wins the SWAC (still gets the lowest seed in the play-in).

Akron upset Kent State in the MAC final to win the bid.

Cal-Santa Barbara upset Long Beach State to win the Big West bid.

[Guest]

Alabama State wins the SWAC (still gets the lowest seed in the play-in).

Akron upset Kent State in the MAC final to win the bid.

Cal-Santa Barbara upset Long Beach State to win the Big West bid.

 

FYI, it's UC Santa Barbara and there's no hyphen.

[bukie]

Alabama State wins the SWAC (still gets the lowest seed in the play-in).

Akron upset Kent State in the MAC final to win the bid.

Cal-Santa Barbara upset Long Beach State to win the Big West bid.

 

FYI, it's UC Santa Barbara and there's no hyphen.

As long as you're not going to pitch a fit that they're not one or two spots higher on the fictional S-Curve. ;)

[Guest]

Alabama State wins the SWAC (still gets the lowest seed in the play-in).

Akron upset Kent State in the MAC final to win the bid.

Cal-Santa Barbara upset Long Beach State to win the Big West bid.

 

FYI, it's UC Santa Barbara and there's no hyphen.

As long as you're not going to pitch a fit that they're not one or two spots higher on the fictional S-Curve. ;)

 

Haha, no worries on that. I'm assuming they'll be a 16-seed. Do they have a chance of avoiding a play-in game?

[bukie]

Alabama State wins the SWAC (still gets the lowest seed in the play-in).

Akron upset Kent State in the MAC final to win the bid.

Cal-Santa Barbara upset Long Beach State to win the Big West bid.

 

FYI, it's UC Santa Barbara and there's no hyphen.

As long as you're not going to pitch a fit that they're not one or two spots higher on the fictional S-Curve. ;)

 

Haha, no worries on that. I'm assuming they'll be a 16-seed. Do they have a chance of avoiding a play-in game?

I really doubt they'd be in the play-in game. Texas-San Antonio, Arkansas-Little Rock, Hampton and Alabama State are clearly the 4 worst teams in the field. Boston U and UNC Asheville are probably the two next worst, so they'd probably avoid a 16 seed altogether.

[Guest]

That would be awesome. They've got pretty much the same team as last year, when they hung with Ohio State for a while in the first round.

 

I think they've got the potential to at least put a scare into a 2-seed this year.

[bukie]

Weird stat: Only five of the 27 conference tournaments completed have been won by the top seed (Belmont, Oakland, Bucknell, Northern Colorado, Kansas). Of the remaining five, only 4 even feature the top seed in the finals (ACC, Big Ten, SEC, WAC).

[bukie]

Ranking the last 22 (well, 21) unplaced teams:

 

Utah State

Washington

Villanova

George Mason

Missouri

Belmont*

Michigan State

Clemson

Gonzaga*

Virginia Tech

Michigan

Old Dominion*

Saint Mary's

Florida State

Butler*

Tennessee

Richmond

UCLA

Georgia

Colorado

Boston College

 

 

Looking further into it, I think Penn State easily has a better profile now than Boston College. Also looking closer, New Mexico has a comparable profile to Colorado/Georgia, as well. USC is borderline (better than BC, IMO). None of the other potentials come very close.

[bukie]

Also, if Richmond doesn't get the auto-bid tomorrow, Dayton's stealing a bid.

 

Same with Utah State with the WAC championship going on right now against Boise State.

[Andy]

I just tossed this together based on our S-curve, making some adjustments for the BYU rules, conference restrictions and travel allowance.

 

I'm going to go ahead and note that I would switch BYU and SDSU's seedings and that there's about no way the committee doesn't get carried away with Kembamania and move UConn up to a 3 seed if at all possible, but I'll defer to the group on both if there's disagreement there.

 

East Regional

Cleveland, OH

1 Ohio State vs 16 Alabama State/Hampton

8 vs 9

 

Tampa, FL

4 Louisville vs 13 Princeton

5 vs 12

 

Washington, DC

6 vs 11

3 Syracuse vs 14 Wofford

 

Tulsa, OK

7 vs 10

2 Texas vs 15 St. Peter's

 

Southwest Regional

Tulsa, OK

1 Kansas vs 16 UNC-Asheville

8 vs 9

 

Denver, CO

4 Connecticut vs 13 Indiana State

5 vs 12

 

Tucson, AZ

6 vs 11

3 San Diego State vs 14 UC-Santa Barbara

 

Chicago, IL

7 vs 10

2 Notre Dame vs 15 Long Island

 

Southeast Regional

Cleveland, OH

1 Pittsburgh vs 16 UT-San Antonio/Arkansas-Little Rock

8 vs 9

 

Tampa, FL

4 Florida vs 13 Oakland

5 vs 12

 

Charlotte, NC

6 vs 11

3 North Carolina vs 14 Morehead State

 

Chicago, IL

7 vs 10

2 Purdue vs 15 Northern Colorado

West Regional

Charlotte, NC

1 Duke vs 16 Boston University

8 vs 9

 

Tucson, AZ

4 Kentucky vs 13 Memphis

5 vs 12

 

Washington, DC

6 vs 11

3 Wisconsin vs 14 Akron

 

Denver, CO

7 vs 10

2 BYU vs 15 Bucknell

 

I feel fairly certain that the play-in format has a 16-seed play-in and an at-large play-in on each night, necessitating a move for one of the 16 games, since both OSU and Kansas have been podded into Friday locations.

[hawkeyecub]

Ranking the last 22:

 

 

Washington

Utah State

Villanova

UCLA

Missouri

Florida State

Old Dominion

Michigan State

Colorado

Butler

Tennessee

Michigan

George Mason

Gonzaga

Virginia Tech

Richmond

Illinois

Clemson

Georgia

St. Mary's

Boston College

Belmont

 

Edited March 13, 2011 by hawkeyecub

[Guest]

Did you copy the list of teams from me, Hawkeye? Because you need to add Mizzou in there somewhere.

[bukie]

Remainder of the S-Curve:

29. Washington*

30. Villanova

31. Florida State

32. Missouri

33. Illinois

34. Old Dominion*

35. Utah State*

36. Michigan State

37. Tennessee

38. UCLA

39. Gonzaga*

40. George Mason

41. Michigan

42. Colorado

43. Virginia Tech

44. Richmond

45. Clemson

46. Butler*

47. Saint Mary's

48. Belmont*

49. Georgia

50. Boston College

[bukie]

Last step is filling in the rest of the bracket legally.

[hawkeyecub]

Did you copy the list of teams from me, Hawkeye? Because you need to add Mizzou in there somewhere.

 

Damnit, yes I copied and then moved them around. Hold on I'll edit it.

[Exile on Waveland]

Ranking the last 22 (well, 21) unplaced teams:

 

Utah State

Washington

Villanova

George Mason

Missouri

Belmont*

Michigan State

Clemson

Gonzaga*

Virginia Tech

Michigan

Old Dominion*

Saint Mary's

Florida State

Butler*

Tennessee

Richmond

UCLA

Georgia

Colorado

Boston College

 

 

Looking further into it, I think Penn State easily has a better profile now than Boston College. Also looking closer, New Mexico has a comparable profile to Colorado/Georgia, as well. USC is borderline (better than BC, IMO). None of the other potentials come very close.

 

I've been a little surprised at the lack of recognition New Mexico has gotten as a bubble team. I don't think they'll get in, they have warts, and I don't think they're great, but two wins over BYU and a win over Colorado (and they are ranked No. 43 in Pomeroy) puts them, in my opinion, rather on par with some other oft-mentioned bubble teams.

[Guest]

I think it's probably a good idea to drop BYU a seed line, and moving UConn up a seed line(which drops Syracuse to a 4) is okay with me too.

[hawkeyecub]

I think it's probably a good idea to drop BYU a seed line, and moving UConn up a seed line(which drops Syracuse to a 4) is okay with me too.

 

Agree on both

[Guest]

So an 8-9 game of Illinois-UCLA might be possible? If so, we can see which team is more willing to take the air out of the ball.

[bukie]

Ranking the last 22 (well, 21) unplaced teams:

 

Utah State

Washington

Villanova

George Mason

Missouri

Belmont*

Michigan State

Clemson

Gonzaga*

Virginia Tech

Michigan

Old Dominion*

Saint Mary's

Florida State

Butler*

Tennessee

Richmond

UCLA

Georgia

Colorado

Boston College

 

 

Looking further into it, I think Penn State easily has a better profile now than Boston College. Also looking closer, New Mexico has a comparable profile to Colorado/Georgia, as well. USC is borderline (better than BC, IMO). None of the other potentials come very close.

 

I've been a little surprised at the lack of recognition New Mexico has gotten as a bubble team. I don't think they'll get in, they have warts, and I don't think they're great, but two wins over BYU and a win over Colorado (and they are ranked No. 43 in Pomeroy) puts them, in my opinion, rather on par with some other oft-mentioned bubble teams.

Little known fact: New Mexico is actually rated higher in Pomeroy and Sagarin this year than they were last year, when they got a 3 seed.

[bukie]

So, if I swap BYU/SDSU, and UConn/Syracuse, here's what we end up with:

 

 

1. Ohio State

2. Kansas

3. Pittsburgh

4. Duke

5. Notre Dame

6. Purdue

7. Texas

8. San Diego State

9. Wisconsin

10. North Carolina

11. UConn

12. BYU

13. Florida

14. Louisville

15. Syracuse

16. Kentucky

17. West Virginia

18. Arizona

19. Georgetown

20. UNLV

21. St. John's

22. Cincinnati

23. Vanderbilt

24. Kansas State

25. Temple

26. Xavier

27. Texas A&M

28. Marquette

29. Washington*

30. Villanova

31. Florida State

32. Missouri

33. Illinois

34. Old Dominion*

35. Utah State*

36. Michigan State

37. Tennessee

38. UCLA

39. Gonzaga*

40. George Mason

41. Michigan

42. Colorado

43. Virginia Tech

44. Richmond

45. Clemson

46. Butler*

47. Saint Mary's

48. Belmont*

49. Georgia

50. Boston College

51. Princeton (Ivy)

52. Memphis (CUSA)

53. Indiana State (Mo Valley)

54. Oakland (Summit)

55. UC Santa Barbara (Big West)

56. Morehead State (OVC)

57. Wofford (SoCon)

58. Akron (MAC)

59. Bucknell (Patriot)

60. St. Peter's (MAAC)

61. Northern Colorado (Big Sky)

62. Long Island (NEC)

63. UNC-Asheville (Big South)

64. Boston University (America East)

65. Texas-San Antonio (Southland)

66. Arkansas-Little Rock (Sun Belt)

67. Hampton (MEAC)

68. Alabama State (SWAC)

 

 

At this point, the only changes I'd recommend would be to put PSU in instead of BC, and possibly New Mexico/USC in place of Georgia.

As is, this would be the First Four:

Clemson vs. Georgia

Saint Mary's vs. Boston College

Texas-SA vs. Alabama State

Arkansas-LR vs. Hampton

[bukie]

Also, if Dayton wins today, another bid is gone.

[javy knows my name]

Marquette's the last 7 seed, so that means they might draw Wisconsin or BYU in the 2nd round? I'd actually be really happy with that.

[Keener98]

So an 8-9 game of Illinois-UCLA might be possible? If so, we can see which team is more willing to take the air out of the ball.

 

Id say its highly unlikely Illinois gets a 8 or 9 seed at this point. If they are in the tourney its going to be as a 11 seed is my guess.

[bukie]

Completing the bracket...

 

 

First Four - Dayton, OH:

1. UT-San Antonio vs. Alabama State

2. Arkansas-Little Rock vs. Hampton

3. Clemson vs. Georgia

4. Saint Mary's vs. Boston College/PSU

 

East Regional

Cleveland, OH

1 Ohio State vs 16 First Four winner 1 (UTSA/Alabama State)

8 Villanova vs 9 Utah State

 

Tampa, FL

4 Louisville vs 13 Princeton

5 Arizona vs 12 Belmont

 

Washington, DC

6 Vanderbilt vs 11 Michigan

3 Connecticut vs 14 Wofford

 

Tulsa, OK

7 Temple vs 10 George Mason

2 Texas vs 15 St. Peter's

 

Southwest Regional

Tulsa, OK

1 Kansas vs 16 UNC-Asheville

8 Washington vs 9 Illinois

 

Denver, CO

4 Syracuse vs 13 Indiana State

5 UNLV vs 12 First Four winner 3 (Clemson/Georgia)

 

Denver, CO

6 Kansas State vs 11 Virginia Tech

3 BYU vs 14 UC Santa Barbara

 

Chicago, IL

7 Xavier vs 10 Gonzaga

2 Notre Dame vs 15 Long Island

 

Southeast Regional

Washington, DC

1 Pittsburgh vs 16 First Four winner 2

8 Florida State vs 9 Michigan State

 

Tampa, FL

4 Florida vs 13 Oakland

5 West Virginia vs 12 Butler

 

Charlotte, NC

6 Cincinnati vs 11 Colorado

3 North Carolina vs 14 Morehead State

 

Chicago, IL

7 Texas A&M vs 10 UCLA

2 Purdue vs 15 Northern Colorado

West Regional

Charlotte, NC

1 Duke vs 16 Boston University

8 Missouri vs 9 Old Dominion

 

Tucson, AZ

4 Kentucky vs 13 Memphis

5 Georgetown vs 12 First Four winner 4 (St. Mary's/BC/PSU)

 

Cleveland, OH

6 St. John's vs 11 Richmond

3 Wisconsin vs 14 Akron

 

Tucson, AZ

7 Marquette vs 10 Tennessee

2 San Diego State vs 15 Bucknell