NCAA Tourney Mock Selection 2011

[bukie]

It's that time of year again. Time for the 8th (yikes, 8?) annual mock tournament selection committee, during which we'll do a mock version of the tournament selection process. Anyone is free to participate if they are able, but please make sure you'll be able to participate regularly between Wednesday and Sunday of next week (during the actual selection process), or at the very least be able to submit 1-3 lists of teams per day during that period. The actual committee consists of 10 members, so if we can get close to that number, the process will more closely resemble reality (rather than the combined feelings of a couple folks).

 

To participate, by midnight (CST) Tuesday, March 8, send (PM) me 4 things:

1) Your favorite team (the team you'll "represent"). During the selection process, you will not be allowed to include this team in any lists, to maintain as much of a sense of fairness as possible. This mirrors the real committee, as a committee member may not be involved in any discussion for a team in his conference (we'd do that here, but 95% of the populace is Big Ten, so nobody would ever be able to discuss them)

2) A list of cold, hard locks for the tournament, no further discussion needed, no matter what they do in the remainder of their games. This can be any number of teams up to a max of 37 (there are 37 at-large bids this year, no more than that can be locks, right?)

3) A list of teams that deserve consideration for the tournament, besides the locks.

4) A list of your top 10 teams, in order (not including the team you represent, obv)

 

Some good resources:

Pomeroy ratings

Sagarin ratings

RPI

Basketball State (costs money after a few page views, but tons of info)

Basketball Prospectus

 

Updated S-Curve (1-68):

 

1. Ohio State

2. Kansas

3. Pittsburgh

4. Duke

5. Notre Dame

6. Purdue

7. Texas

8. BYU

9. Wisconsin

10. North Carolina

11. Syracuse

12. San Diego State

13. Florida

14. Louisville

15. Connecticut

16. Kentucky

17. West Virginia

18. Arizona

19. Georgetown

20. UNLV

21. St. John's

22. Cincinnati

23. Vanderbilt

24. Kansas State

25. Temple

26. Xavier

27. Texas A&M

28. Marquette

29. Washington*

30. Villanova

31. Florida State

32. Missouri

33. Illinois

34. Old Dominion*

35. Utah State*

36. Michigan State

37. Tennessee

38. UCLA

39. Gonzaga*

40. George Mason

41. Michigan

42. Colorado

43. Virginia Tech

44. Richmond

45. Clemson

46. Butler*

47. Saint Mary's

48. Belmont*

49. Georgia

50. Boston College

51. Princeton (Ivy)

52. Memphis (CUSA)

53. Indiana State (Mo Valley)

54. Oakland (Summit)

55. UC Santa Barbara (Big West)

56. Morehead State (OVC)

57. Wofford (SoCon)

58. Akron (MAC)

59. Bucknell (Patriot)

60. St. Peter's (MAAC)

61. Northern Colorado (Big Sky)

62. Long Island (NEC)

63. UNC-Asheville (Big South)

64. Boston University (America East)

65. Texas-San Antonio (Southland)

66. Arkansas-Little Rock (Sun Belt)

67. Hampton (MEAC)

68. Alabama State (SWAC)

 

 

Pod placement:

 

1. Ohio State - Cleveland, OH

2. Kansas - Tulsa, OK

3. Pittsburgh - Washington, DC

4. Duke - Charlotte, NC

5. Notre Dame - Chicago, IL

6. Purdue - Chicago, IL

7. Texas - Tulsa, OK

8. BYU - Denver, CO

9. Wisconsin - Cleveland, OH

10. North Carolina - Charlotte, NC

11. Syracuse - Washington, DC

12. San Diego State - Tucson, AZ

13. Florida - Tampa, FL

14. Louisville - Tampa, FL

15. Connecticut - Denver, CO

16. Kentucky - Tucson, AZ

 

 

Bottom of the at-large pool (alpha): Boston College, Colorado, Richmond

Still in talks: Penn State, New Mexico, USC

Edited March 13, 2011 by bukie

[bukie]

Also, my team is Illinois for this exercise, as per usual.

[Andy]

I'll be in for Notre Dame.

[shnsajax]

I'll go with Texas.

[bukie]

This year, the RPI is even further off the better statistical ratings than usual, so it'll be interesting to see who gets chosen for what.

 

As of this morning, BYU is the #1 team in RPI.

[Guest]

I'm in, representing UCLA.

[SouthSideRyan]

Illinois

[javy knows my name]

In for Marquette

[Guest]

I'm in with Mizzou.

[Smack]

I'd like to try this but I'm pretty swamped at work lately. If it's ok to do most of my updating after 5PM central I'm in for sure. I can probably do an update in the morning too. If you get 10 others with plenty of time, I've got no problem letting someone with more time have my spot.

 

Purdue

[bukie]

Today's food for thought, two potential at-large candidates...well, team B is a major at-large candidate and assumed in, while team A is barely getting any consideration:

 

Record          RPI   SOS   Streak Last 10 Home  Road  Top25 25-50 51-100 100+
18-12 (8-9)     66    21    W1     7-3     13-5  5-5   0-7   4-1   7-4    6-0
19-9 (11-3)     80    139   L1     8-2     15-0  4-6   1-1   0-1   3-6    15-1

[SouthSideRyan]

I'm not totally sold on Team A being in, but I've said elsewhere that team B has done nothing to deserve a bid

[NeifiIsMyHomeBoy]

Today's food for thought, two potential at-large candidates...well, team B is a major at-large candidate and assumed in, while team A is barely getting any consideration:

 

Record          RPI   SOS   Streak Last 10 Home  Road  Top25 25-50 51-100 100+
18-12 (8-9)     66    21    W1     7-3     13-5  5-5   0-7   4-1   7-4    6-0
19-9 (11-3)     80    139   L1     8-2     15-0  4-6   1-1   0-1   3-6    15-1

 

I'm going to guess taht B is Alabama. I have no clue who A is, but I think it might be Michigan?

[javy knows my name]

Today's food for thought, two potential at-large candidates...well, team B is a major at-large candidate and assumed in, while team A is barely getting any consideration:

 

Record          RPI   SOS   Streak Last 10 Home  Road  Top25 25-50 51-100 100+
18-12 (8-9)     66    21    W1     7-3     13-5  5-5   0-7   4-1   7-4    6-0
19-9 (11-3)     80    139   L1     8-2     15-0  4-6   1-1   0-1   3-6    15-1

 

I'm going to guess taht B is Alabama. I have no clue who A is, but I think it might be Michigan?

 

I say B is Alabama, too. I think A is a Big East team, Cincy maybe?

[SouthSideRyan]

You just think Team A is from the Big East because they should probably be in the tourney.

[bukie]

Team A is Michigan, yes.

[javy knows my name]

You just think Team A is from the Big East because they should probably be in the tourney.

 

I picked Cincy because they haven't beaten anybody and I DON'T think they deserve to get in

 

Also, there are only two conferences right now where a barely-.500 record would give you a decent RPI

 

You hate the Big East far more than I am enamored by it

 

EDIT: OK, nobody has a top-40 RPI.

[SouthSideRyan]

I don't hate the Big East, I'll probably vote to give them 11 teams.

[bukie]

Can I hate on the SEC a bit here?

 

This projects to be the first year since they've kept track online that a "Big Six" conference isn't going to be a top 6 conference. Partially because the MWC is better than it was last year, and partially because the SEC is actually worse than the Pac-10 was last year.

 

That said, Kentucky is going to be woefully underseeded come tourney time. Every other team, not so much.

 

EDIT: I forgot how bad the Pac-10 was in 2004. Worse than the A-10, CUSA and MWC that year.

[SouthSideRyan]

Does a 14 loss Tennessee team really belong?

[bukie]

Does a 14 loss Tennessee team really belong?

I'd rather give Belmont and Utah State at-larges.

[hawkeyecub]

I'm in if you need another but I have no idea who my "favorite" team would be.

[bukie]

I'm in if you need another but I have no idea who my "favorite" team would be.

Could've sworn you were an Iowa fan.

[hawkeyecub]

I'm in if you need another but I have no idea who my "favorite" team would be.

Could've sworn you were an Iowa fan.

 

I don't anticipate having remove myself from the room for the Hawks.

[NeifiIsMyHomeBoy]

I would love to participate, but I'm just too swamped to deal with the mountain of data. Have fun guys.