NCAA Tourney Mock Selection 2011

[SouthSideRyan]

It's a coming bukie

[Andy]

Marquette's win probably puts them in, but beating WV tomorrow would make them a lock IMO.

[bukie]

If anyone else sends me a list overnight, I'll update this tomorrow morning. I have a total of 4 lists so far, including mine.

 

So, according to those lists:

 

At-large Locks (28):

 

Arizona

BYU

Cincinnati

Connecticut

Duke

Florida

Georgetown

Kansas

Kansas State

Kentucky

Louisville

Missouri

North Carolina

Notre Dame

Ohio State

Pittsburgh

Purdue

San Diego State

St. John's

Syracuse

Temple

Texas

Texas A&M

UCLA

Vanderbilt

Villanova

West Virginia

Wisconsin

 

 

Consideration Pool (50):

 

Alabama

Arkansas

Baylor

Boston College

California

Clemson

Cleveland State

Colorado

Colorado State

Dayton

Duquesne

Florida State

George Mason

George Washington

Georgia

Harvard

Illinois

Marquette

Marshall

Maryland

Memphis

Miami

Michigan

Michigan State

Minnesota

Mississippi

Missouri State

Nebraska

New Mexico

Northwestern

Oklahoma State

Penn State

Rhode Island

Richmond

Saint Mary's

Southern Miss

Tennessee

Tulsa

UAB

UCF

UNLV

USC

Utah State

UTEP

VCU

Virginia Tech

Washington

Washington State

Wichita State

Xavier

 

 

By the end of tomorrow, send me 4 lists:

1) Top 12 teams under consideration to fill in at-large field

2) Bottom 12 teams under consideration to thin the consideration board.

3) Rank the following 14 teams in order. If you rep one of the teams, leave them out of your ranking, and it will be factored into the results (top 8 will go to S-Curve):

 

BYU

Duke

Florida

Georgetown

Kansas

North Carolina

Notre Dame

Ohio State

Pittsburgh

Purdue

San Diego State

Syracuse

Texas

Wisconsin

 

4) After those 14, rank the next 8 teams from among the at-large pool and the automatic bids (see first post).

[bukie]

Added a 5th set of lists and the information didn't change, so yay? During the day, I'll figure out what the one-bid leagues are, and if anyone thinks we missed someone for consideration (and I really doubt we did, unless there are some avid Coastal Carolina fans), or thinks someone under consideration should absolutely be a lock, discuss!

[SouthSideRyan]

I can't really quibble with Villanova and Mizzou being locks, but they seem to be the clear bottom feeders of that group. (Maybe A&M and UCLA as well?)

 

Villanova absolutely collapsed down the stretch, losing 7 of their last 9 with their only wins being over Seton Hall by 3 and DePaul in OT by 2. They've got 3 bad losses, but way too many good wins to consider pushing out.

 

I like Xavier and Washington out of the consideration pool

[bukie]

Villanova should absolutely make the tournament, but their seeding may be well below teams that aren't locked yet.

 

As far as one bid leagues, there are 16 for sure one-bid leagues: America East, Atlantic Sun (Belmont), Big Sky, Big South (UNC Asheville), Big West, MAAC (St. Peter's), MAC, MEAC, Northeast, Ohio Valley (Morehead State), Patriot, Southern (Wofford), Southland, SWAC, Summit (Oakland) and Sun Belt (Arkansas-Little Rock).

 

An additional 8 leagues have no more than one lock, so could potentially be one-bid leagues: Atlantic-10, Colonial (Old Dominion), Conference USA, Horizon (Butler), Ivy, Missouri Valley (Indiana State), West Coast (Gonzaga) and WAC.

 

Which leaves 7 leagues that are locked into multiple bids: ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Mountain West, Pac-10 and SEC.

 

With 28 at-large locks representing 8 leagues, that leaves anywhere from 9-17 bids available for the teams still in consideration.

[SouthSideRyan]

I can't imagine a scenario where I'd take an at-large George Washington, Tulsa, or UCF.

[bukie]

In depth data on the S-Curve selection teams:

 

Team            RPI   Pom   Sag  Pred   W  L 1-25 26-50 51-100 101-200 200+   R/N  SOS  NCS   EM
BYU               4     8     5     7  27  3  5-0   1-3    4-0    13-0  4-0  16-2   59   99  .18
Duke              5     3     4     3  27  4  2-1   6-3   12-0     3-0  4-0  10-4   27   70  .16
Florida          10    19    19    22  24  6  2-2   4-0    6-1     6-3  5-0  10-3   42  104  .12
Georgetown       11    26    16    19  21  9  4-7   4-2    5-0     6-0  2-0  11-5    2   27  .00
Kansas            1     2     2     2  29  2  3-2   7-0    8-0     7-0  4-0  13-1   40  175  .17
North Carolina    6    11    12    13  24  6  2-3   6-1    9-2     4-0  3-0   9-6   11   36  .11
Notre Dame        9    15    11    15  25  5  6-3   5-2    5-0     2-0  7-0   8-5   19  250  .07
Ohio State        2     1     1     1  29  2  5-2   7-0    9-0     5-0  4-0   9-2   20  241  .16
Pittsburgh        7     6     3     5  27  4  6-2   5-1    4-1     7-0  5-0  10-2   32  239  .15
Purdue            8     4     7     6  25  6  4-3   7-0    6-3     4-0  4-0   9-6   10  165  .13
San Diego State   3     9     6    11  27  2  2-2   3-0    6-0    13-0  3-0  15-1   43   62  .16
Syracuse         18    12     9    12  25  6  4-2   5-3    6-1     6-0  4-0   9-3   22  210  .09
Texas            14     5     8     4  25  6  4-3   3-2    5-1     7-0  6-0   9-4   36   91  .20
Wisconsin        13     7    10     9  23  7  3-5   5-2    8-0     2-0  5-0   7-7   13  203  .10

Key:

RPI = RPI rating

Pom = Pomeroy rating

Sag = Sagarin rating

Pred = Sagarin Predictor

W/L = duh?

1-25, etc = record vs. Pomeroy ranked teams (since record vs. RPI teams isn't easy to calculate)

R/N = Road/Neutral record

SOS = Overall strength of schedule

NCS = Non-conference SOS

EM = Efficiency margin - calculated by John Gasaway, a measure of how much better a team has been than their opponents in games.

[bukie]

I can't imagine a scenario where I'd take an at-large George Washington, Tulsa, or UCF.

UCF is a weird case, where they were outstanding at the beginning and end of the year, and had a completely unexplainable collapse in the middle.

 

GW and Tulsa I agree, as well as Arkansas and Marshall.

 

EDIT: By Marshall I mean Memphis, who has an awful profile and is only getting attention because they're Memphis.

[hawkeyecub]

I can't imagine a scenario where I'd take an at-large George Washington, Tulsa, or UCF.

UCF is a weird case, where they were outstanding at the beginning and end of the year, and had a completely unexplainable collapse in the middle.

 

They went 6-10 in Conference USA. The "outstanding at the end of the year" was a 5-2 finish that included two 1-point wins at home, two 3-point wins (one at home) and a 6 point win. I think their start was mainly a function of winning close games against decent teams in the state of Florida and then beating a bunch of patsies. I don't know if they're an at-large consideration for the NIT.

[bukie]

I can't imagine a scenario where I'd take an at-large George Washington, Tulsa, or UCF.

UCF is a weird case, where they were outstanding at the beginning and end of the year, and had a completely unexplainable collapse in the middle.

 

They went 6-10 in Conference USA. The "outstanding at the end of the year" was a 5-2 finish that included two 1-point wins at home, two 3-point wins (one at home) and a 6 point win. I think their start was mainly a function of winning close games against decent teams in the state of Florida and then beating a bunch of patsies. I don't know if they're an at-large consideration for the NIT.

Oh, I'm not saying they're even in the tournament ballpark, but if Memphis is a consideration, then half of CUSA had to be.

[bukie]

As for today's lists from me:

 

12 For removal:

 

50. Arkansas

49. Memphis

48. George Washington

47. UCF

46. Miami

45. Rhode Island

44. Tulsa

43. Dayton

42. Mississippi

41. Northwestern

40. Oklahoma State

39. Alabama

 

 

12 for at-large pool:

 

Xavier

George Mason

Washington

UNLV

Marquette

Utah State

Michigan

Michigan State

Florida State

Clemson

Richmond

St. Mary's

 

 

Top 14 overall:

 

1. Ohio State

2. Kansas

3. Duke

4. Pittsburgh

5. BYU

6. Purdue

7. Texas

8. San Diego State

9. Wisconsin

10. North Carolian

11. Notre Dame

12. Syracuse

13. Florida

14. Georgetown

 

 

Top 8 remaining:

 

1. Louisville

2. Kentucky

3. Connecticut

4. Cincinnati

5. Arizona

6. West Virginia

7. Temple

8. Kansas State

 

[hawkeyecub]

12 for elimination:

 

Arkansas

Dayton

Minnesota

UCF

Marshall

Southern Miss

George Washington

Rhode Island

Miami

Tulsa

Ole Miss

UTEP

 

 

Top 12 consideration

 

Clemson

Xavier

Marquette

Florida State

Washington

Tennessee

Georgia

Richmond

UNLV

Utah State

Illinois

George Mason

 

 

Top 14 overall

 

1. Ohio State

2. Kansas

3. Pitt

4. Duke

5. Texas

6. Notre Dame

7. North Carolina

8. BYU

9. Florida

10. Purdue

11. San Diego State

12. Syracuse

13. Wisconsin

14. Georgetown

 

 

Next 8

 

Louisville

Kentucky

Arizona

UCONN

West Virginia

St. John's

Vanderbilt

Xavier

 

[bukie]

Long Island wins the Northeast.

[Guest]

Crap, I forgot my lists tonight, I'll try to get them out as soon as I can tomorrow morning.

[SouthSideRyan]

I'm finishing off my 12 from the under consideration pool. Not pretty

[SouthSideRyan]

1) TOP 12 CONSIDERATION

 

Xavier

UNLV

MARQ

Michigan

FSU

MSU

TN

CLEMSON

WASH

VT

Utah St

George Mason

 

 

 

2) REMOVE

 

Tulsa

UCF

GW

Baylor

Nebraska

Rhode Island

Cleveland St.

Missouri State

Wichita State

Duquesne

Marshall

Southern Miss

 

 

 

3) TOP 14 TOTAL

 

OSU

KANSAS

PITT

ND

DUKE

BYU

SDSU

CUSE

PUR

WIS

TEX

UNC

GTOWN

FLORIDA

 

 

4) NEXT 8

 

Louisville

Connecticut

West Virginia

Kentucky

St. John's

UCLA

Kansas St

Arizona

 

[SouthSideRyan]

For my bottom 12, I assumed the best case scenario for each of the teams, which skewed against teams like Cleveland State and Missouri State as they can't improve themselves any further.

[Andy]

1) Top 12 teams under consideration to fill in at-large field

 

1 - UNLV

2 - Xavier

3 - Tennessee

4 - Florida State

5 - Boston College

6 - Illinois

7 - Washington

8 - Georgia

9 - Utah State

10 - Michigan State

11 - Michigan

12 - Marquette

 

 

 

2) Bottom 12 teams under consideration to thin the consideration board.

 

1 - Northwestern

2 - Dayton

3 - Cleveland State

4 - Arkansas

5 - Miami

6 - George Washington

7 - Marshall

8 - Southern Miss

9 - Tulsa

10 - UTEP

11 - Washington State

12 - Duquesne

 

 

3) Rank the following 14 teams in order. If you rep one of the teams, leave them out of your ranking, and it will be factored into the results (top 8 will go to S-Curve):

 

1 - Kansas

2 - Ohio State

3 - Pittsburgh

4 - Duke

5 - Purdue

6 - North Carolina

7 - Texas

8 - Wisconsin

9 - Syracuse

10 - BYU

11 - San Diego State

12 - Florida

13 - Georgetown

(Spot omitted for Notre Dame)

 

 

4) After those 14, rank the next 8 teams from among the at-large pool and the automatic bids (see first post).

 

1 - Kentucky

2 - Louisville

3 - Arizona

4 - Connecticut

5 - UCLA

6 - West Virginia

7 - St. John's

8 - Kansas State

 

[hawkeyecub]

I'm finishing off my 12 from the under consideration pool. Not pretty

 

I know it gets said almost every year but wow the bubble is especially weak this year. What's killing me is the 5 seed range, most of those teams aren't good. I feel like everyone should be put in the 7-10 range.

[Guest]

Sorry about the tardiness.

 

1) Top 12 teams under consideration to fill in at-large field

 

 

Illinois

Florida St

Clemson

Utah St

Washington

Xavier

Tennessee

Marquette

UNLV

St. Mary's

Virginia Tech

Colorado

 

 

 

2) Bottom 12 teams under consideration to thin the consideration board.

 

Nebraska

Marshall

Southern Miss

Baylor

Memphis

New Mexico

UAB

UCF

Ole Miss

Northwestern

George Washington

Washington St

 

 

 

3) Rank the following 14 teams in order. If you rep one of the teams, leave them out of your ranking, and it will be factored into the results (top 8 will go to S-Curve):

 

 

Ohio State

Kansas

Pitt

Notre Dame

Duke

Wisconsin

Purdue

Texas

BYU

Syracuse

Florida

North Carolina

Georgetown

San Diego State

 

 

4) After those 14, rank the next 8 teams from among the at-large pool and the automatic bids (see first post).

 

UConn

Louisville

Kentucky

West Virginia

Kansas St.

Vandy

St. John's

Arizona

 

[bukie]

I'll get this information interpreted as soon as I can.

[bukie]

Today's results:

 

Top 8 on the S-Curve:

1. Ohio State

2. Kansas

3. Pittsburgh

4. Duke

5. Notre Dame

6. Purdue

7. Texas

8. BYU

 

8 teams removed from consideration (alpha order):

Arkansas

Dayton

George Washington

Marshall

Miami

Southern Miss

Tulsa

UCF

 

8 teams into at-large pool (alpha order):

Clemson

Florida State

Illinois

Marquette

Tennessee

UNLV

Washington

Xavier

 

Next 6 into the S-Curve selection (alpha order):

Arizona

Connecticut

Kentucky

Louisville

St. John's

West Virginia

[SouthSideRyan]

Bukie's pissed that Memphis and Bama are still out there.

[bukie]

Bukie's pissed that Memphis and Bama are still out there.

What's scary is that even with the teams in the at-large pool, there are still up to 9 spots available for the remaining consideration board.