NCAA Tourney Mock Selection 2011

[Smack]

So... I got another project assigned at work today... I'll watch from the sidelines. You guys do a great job.

[sneakypower]

Today's food for thought, two potential at-large candidates...well, team B is a major at-large candidate and assumed in, while team A is barely getting any consideration:

 

Record          RPI   SOS   Streak Last 10 Home  Road  Top25 25-50 51-100 100+
18-12 (8-9)     66    21    W1     7-3     13-5  5-5   0-7   4-1   7-4    6-0
19-9 (11-3)     80    139   L1     8-2     15-0  4-6   1-1   0-1   3-6    15-1

you really know how to warm the cockles of my heart, bukie

[SouthSideRyan]

Being as brutal as possible, I have 14 locks.

 

Then being as inclusive as possible I have 45 bubble teams.

 

Then being absurdly inclusive I have 17 more that I consider longshots, likely needing a run to their conference championship despite not being very good.

[Magnetic Curses]

Being as brutal as possible, I have 14 locks.

 

Then being as inclusive as possible I have 45 bubble teams.

 

Then being absurdly inclusive I have 17 more that I consider longshots, likely needing a run to their conference championship despite not being very good.

 

technically any team not in or on the bubble needs a run to their conference championship, though.

[bukie]

John Gasaway posted efficiency numbers on every meaningful conference (Big 6 + A10/CUSA/CAA/MWC/WCC/Horizon/MVC/WAC, so every feasible at-large candidate) coming into championship week. Not necessarily important for tournament qualification or even seeding, but a good measure of how good a team really should be, so you can see who is the most overrated (St. Johns) or underrated (Kentucky, Washington) going into the tourney.

[Guest]

Wisconsin plays a 56 possession pace. That barely seems possible.

[SouthSideRyan]

Wisconsin plays a 56 possession pace. That barely seems possible.

 

They never turn the ball over.

[Exile on Waveland]

Does a 14 loss Tennessee team really belong?

I'd rather give Belmont and Utah State at-larges.

 

I'm with you, and Pomeroy loves Belmont . . . but Tennessee did beat Belmont twice this year (and has non-conference wins over Pitt and Villanova).

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Who do I have to screw to get Iowa in the tourney?

[Old Style]

Who do I have to screw to get Iowa in the tourney?

That chick from Precious.

[bukie]

Today's fun activity...the following seven teams are most likely the only ones in the mix for a 1 seed. How would you rank them?

 

Team   Record        RPI   SOS  Last 10 Home   Road   Top25 26-50 51-100 101-200 200+
A      27-2 (13-1)   1     11   9-1     14-0   10-1   3-0   4-2   3-0    13-0    3-0
B      26-3 (12-2)   5     36   8-2     16-0   6-3    3-0   4-3   9-0    5-0     5-0
C      28-2 (15-2)   3     27   8-2     19-0   9-2    4-2   6-0   8-0    6-0     4-0
D      28-2 (13-2)   4     26   8-2     13-1   11-1   0-2   6-0   4-0    13-0    3-0
E      27-2 (12-2)   2     13   9-1     15-1   8-1    0-1   8-1   9-0    6-0     4-0
F      25-5 (14-3)   6     16   8-2     17-0   7-4    4-3   5-1   8-1    4-0     4-0
G      25-4 (13-3)   7     24   7-3     17-2   6-2    8-2   3-1   3-1    7-0     4-0

[SouthSideRyan]

Does a 14 loss Tennessee team really belong?

I'd rather give Belmont and Utah State at-larges.

 

I'm with you, and Pomeroy loves Belmont . . . but Tennessee did beat Belmont twice this year (and has non-conference wins over Pitt and Villanova).

 

Both games in Knoxville. That said, I'm not sure I could support an at-large Belmont over an at-large Tennessee unless Tennessee loses their next game to South Carolina

[bukie]

For my money, I'd probably go C, A, B, G, F, E, D. The profiles are surprisingly close, though.

[SouthSideRyan]

C, G, F, A, B, E, D

[shnsajax]

Who do I have to screw to get Iowa in the tourney?

That chick from Precious.

 

I'm gonna say both of them. One still isn't enough for Iowa to get in.

[bukie]

I'd have included 8 teams, but I couldn't find a good 8th team that was close enough in profile, and I didn't want to spend all afternoon looking. :P

[Andy]

C, A, B and G in that order would be my #1 seeds.

 

And if Team D is San Diego State, which I believe they are, I'm pretty sure they aren't in consideration for a 1 seed.

 

And I think Team A is BYU, and they're probably out too after tonight.

[bukie]

3 auto bids up for grabs today in the A-Sun, Big South and OVC. Belmont would be the only team among them with even an outside shot at an at-large bid with a loss, but even then it'd be slim to none.

[bukie]

Actually, since there's an additional 4 teams in the mix, if everyone could send me a list of their top 10 teams, in order, we can get an early start on the S-Curve to have enough time to complete the whole thing.

[bukie]

Oh, one other auto bid up for grabs tonight as Harvard hosts Princeton. If Princeton wins, they get the Ivy bid. If Harvard wins, then Princeton plays Penn to see if they can earn a rematch with Harvard.

[bukie]

UNC Asheville wins the Big South, and earns the first NCAA bid.

[SouthSideRyan]

Oh, one other auto bid up for grabs tonight as Harvard hosts Princeton. If Princeton wins, they get the Ivy bid. If Harvard wins, then Princeton plays Penn to see if they can earn a rematch with Harvard.

 

Has this always been the rule for the Ivy? I can't find the last time they had a tie at the top

[SouthSideRyan]

UNC Asheville wins the Big South, and earns the first NCAA bid.

 

I am against Coastal Carolina for at-large. 4 of their wins were against non-D1 teams leaving their record as a less gaudy 24-5. Their only game against a tourney-quality opponent was a 19 point loss to Georgetown. Their highest ranked win (Pomeroy) was #135 East Carolina. They only have 5 Top 200 wins. They're a non-starter for me.

[SouthSideRyan]

Wichita State knocked out of the MVC tourney. They have a Coastal Carolina-ish resume, just with more of those middle ground wins thrown in.

 

Only 1 top 100 win (vs. Tulsa by 3) 1-5 overall vs. top 100. Played 2 surefire tourney teams and lost to both by 14 (Connecticut (N) and @ SDSU) 11 wins vs teams in the 100s. I think they're out.

[bukie]

Wichita State knocked out of the MVC tourney. They have a Coastal Carolina-ish resume, just with more of those middle ground wins thrown in.

 

Only 1 top 100 win (vs. Tulsa by 3) 1-5 overall vs. top 100. Played 2 surefire tourney teams and lost to both by 14 (Connecticut (N) and @ SDSU) 11 wins vs teams in the 100s. I think they're out.

Yeah, if they'd blitzed the rest of the MVC like Belmont they'd have more of an argument, but they didn't even win the league. Plus, the MVC was pretty bad this year overall.