NCAA Tourney Mock Selection 2011

[bukie]

Updated lists:

 

S-Curve (8):

 

1. Ohio State

2. Kansas

3. Pittsburgh

4. Duke

5. Notre Dame

6. Purdue

7. Texas

8. BYU

 

 

Remaining at-large pool (28):

 

Arizona

Cincinnati

Clemson

Connecticut

Florida

Florida State

Georgetown

Illinois

Kansas State

Kentucky

Louisville

Marquette

Missouri

North Carolina

San Diego State

St. John's

Syracuse

Temple

Tennessee

Texas A&M

UCLA

UNLV

Vanderbilt

Villanova

Washington

West Virginia

Wisconsin

Xavier

 

 

Auto bids (13 of 31):

 

America East - (Vermont)

Atlantic 10 - (Xavier)

ACC - (Duke)

Atlantic Sun - Belmont

Big 12 - (Kansas)

Big East - (Pittsburgh)

Big Sky - Northern Colorado

Big South - UNC-Asheville

Big Ten - (Ohio State)

Big West - (Long Beach State)

Colonial - Old Dominion

Conference USA - (UTEP)

Horizon - Butler

Ivy - (Harvard)

Metro Atlantic - St. Peter's

Mid-American - (Buffalo)

MEAC - (Hampton)

Missouri Valley - Indiana State

Mountain West - (BYU)

Northeast - Long Island

Ohio Valley - Morehead State

Pac-10 - (Arizona)

Patriot - (Bucknell)

SEC - (Florida)

Southern - Wofford

Southland - (Sam Houston State)

SWAC - (Jackson State)

Summit - Oakland

Sun Belt - Arkansas-Little Rock

West Coast - Gonzaga

WAC - (Utah State)

 

Consideration board (34 teams for 1-9 spots):

 

Alabama

Baylor

Boston College

California

Cleveland State

Colorado

Colorado State

Duquesne

George Mason

Georgia

Harvard

Maryland

Memphis

Michigan

Michigan State

Minnesota

Mississippi

Missouri State

Nebraska

New Mexico

Northwestern

Oklahoma State

Penn State

Rhode Island

Richmond

Saint Mary's

UAB

USC

Utah State

UTEP

VCU

Virginia Tech

Washington State

Wichita State

 

 

For today:

1) Rank the following 12 teams in order for the next 8 spots on the S-Curve:

 

Arizona

Connecticut

Florida

Georgetown

Kentucky

Louisville

North Carolina

San Diego State

St. John's

Syracuse

West Virginia

Wisconsin

 

2) Rank the next 12 teams from auto bids/at-large for placement on the S-Curve.

3) Rank the top 12 teams in consideration for potential at-large pool placement. One will be placed for sure, the next 7-9 will be placed in potential spots barring bid theft (If Utah State is one of them, they are another potential auto bid from a conference).

4) Rank the bottom 16 teams in consideration for removal (there are more to remove than to place).

5) Rank the bottom 12 auto-bids (placeholder teams in parentheses for conferences not yet done with tournaments) for placement at the bottom of the S-Curve.

Edited March 11, 2011 by bukie

[bukie]

I may ask for a fifth list of ranking the bottom 12 auto-bids, but I'll have to do some digging for placeholder teams for one-bid conferences that haven't completed yet.

[bukie]

And someone is going to have to explain to me what makes Memphis an at large candidate beyond that they're Memphis.

 

Alabama, I can buy the argument that they have the second best record in the 7th best conference (in the worst division I've ever seen), and they have played better the second half of the season.

[SouthSideRyan]

Bukie's pissed that Memphis and Bama are still out there.

What's scary is that even with the teams in the at-large pool, there are still up to 9 spots available for the remaining consideration board.

 

And 3 of the 34 remaining under consideration can still win 1 bid leagues narrowing it to 31 teams for 9 spots.

[SouthSideRyan]

And someone is going to have to explain to me what makes Memphis an at large candidate beyond that they're Memphis.

 

Alabama, I can buy the argument that they have the second best record in the 7th best conference (in the worst division I've ever seen), and they have played better the second half of the season.

 

I don't think Memphis belongs, but I don't see their resume as being much different than UAB or UTEP.

 

Re: Alabama, they avoided a nightmare loss to LSU or Auburn, but I don't see much that separates them from Arkansas to be honest.

[bukie]

OK, I tossed in placeholder teams for all the conferences that hadn't completed tournaments yet, so we can rank the bottom 12 auto-bids for placement in the bottom of the S-Curve. The placeholder team is the odds-on favorite, not necessarily the best team (i.e. UTEP is the favorite in the CUSA tourney because it's on their home floor).

[bukie]

Kemba Walker hit a buzzer beater to beat Pitt.

 

Kansas in a battle with Oklahoma State in the second half.

 

And I'm not sure I've ever seen a collapse as bad as Virginia against Miami.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

And I'm not sure I've ever seen a collapse as bad as Virginia against Miami.

What happened there? The box score doesn't jive with this.

[bukie]

And I'm not sure I've ever seen a collapse as bad as Virginia against Miami.

What happened there? The box score doesn't jive with this.

Virginia led by 10 with the ball with 40 seconds to play and let Miami tie it and send the game to overtime.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Awesome

[bukie]

In-depth stats on the next set of S-Curve selections:

Team           RPI  Pom Sag Pred  W  L 1-25 26-50 51-100 101-200  200+ R/N  SOS NCS  EM
Arizona         15   28  21   19 25  6  1-3   4-2    7-0    10-1  3-0  8-6   44 129 .06
Connecticut     24   21  16   20 23  9  4-8   4-1    6-0     2-0  7-0 10-5   14 173 .01
Florida         10   19  18   23 24  6  2-2   5-0    6-1     6-3  5-0 10-3   42 105 .12
Georgetown      12   32  17   25 21 10  4-8   4-2    5-0     6-0  2-0 11-6    2  27 .00
Kentucky        11   10  15    8 22  8  4-3   1-2    4-2     8-1  3-0  7-8   31  46 .12
Louisville      21   14  14   14 23  8  7-4   1-2    5-2     2-0  8-0  5-5   36 293 .06
North Carolina   6   11  12   13 24  6  2-3   6-1    9-2     4-0  3-0  9-6   11  35 .11
San Diego State  3    9   6   11 27  2  2-2   3-0    6-0    13-0  3-0 15-1   43  61 .16
St. John's      23   34  23   33 21 10  7-4   2-2    4-2     4-1  4-1  8-7    7  97 .02
Syracuse        17   12   9   12 25  6  4-3   5-2    7-1     5-0  4-0  9-3   23 213 .09
West Virginia   19   22  19   18 20 11  5-6   2-2    6-3     5-0  2-0  8-9    3  21 .05
Wisconsin       13    7  11    9 23  7  4-5   4-2    8-0     2-0  5-0  7-7   13 202 .10

[bukie]

UAB FT shooter splits a pair down 3, but they get the offensive rebound on the miss and hit two more FTs to take the game to OT against East Carolina.

[SouthSideRyan]

UAB loses anyway and they're dead to me.

[SouthSideRyan]

Minnesota loses, dead to me.

[bukie]

Hypothetical of all hypotheticals: if Northwestern goes and beats Ohio State tomorrow, do they start to get serious at large consideration?

[Andy]

Hypothetical of all hypotheticals: if Northwestern goes and beats Ohio State tomorrow, do they start to get serious at large consideration?

To me, they'd have to get to the final before the conversation even starts.

[Guest]

Northwestern needs to win the tournament. They were 7-11 in conference, their best win is Illinois or Michigan at home, and they were swept by Penn State.

[bukie]

Memphis off to a fast start against Southern Miss.

 

Colorado leading Kansas State by 2 midway through the second half.

[bukie]

BYU hangs on vs. TCU 64-58.

 

Colorado lead up to 6 with 3 minutes to play.

[bukie]

Colorado defeats Kansas State 87-75 and makes its case for best team in the Pac-10.

[SouthSideRyan]

Top of my head NU probably needs to win it all, but they don't have any bad losses and they would have a win over the #1 team. Their nonconference schedule is about as bad as it comes though.

[bukie]

Memphis leads Southern Miss by 1 with 39 seconds to play, Memphis ball.

[bukie]

Iowa leads Michigan State by 2 5 minutes into the second half.

[SouthSideRyan]

Once I start moving UCLA up my board they go and embarrass themselves against a bad Oregon team.

[Andy]

1) Rank the following 12 teams in order for the next 8 spots on the S-Curve:

 

1 - North Carolina

2 - Wisconsin

3 - Syracuse

4 - San Diego State

5 - Florida

6 - Georgetown

7 - Kentucky

8 - Louisville

9 - Arizona

10 - Connecticut

11 - West Virginia

12 - St. John's

 

 

2) Rank the next 12 teams from auto bids/at-large for placement on the S-Curve.

 

1 - UNLV

2 - Xavier

3 - Tennessee

4 - Temple

5 - Florida State

6 - Cincinnati

7 - Illinois

8 - Washington

9 - Marquette

10 - Vanderbilt

11 - Kansas State

12 - Texas A&M

 

 

3) Rank the top 12 teams in consideration for potential at-large pool placement. One will be placed for sure, the next 7-9 will be placed in potential spots barring bid theft (If Utah State is one of them, they are another potential auto bid from a conference).

 

1 - Boston College

2 - Georgia

3 - Utah State

4 - Michigan State

5 - Michigan

6 - George Mason

7 - Richmond

8 - USC

9 - Colorado

10 - Virginia Tech

11 - Saint Mary's

12 - Missouri State

 

 

4) Rank the bottom 16 teams in consideration for removal (there are more to remove than to place).

 

16 - Minnesota

15 - Northwestern

14 - Baylor

13 - Nebraska

12 - Mississippi

11 - California

10 - Colorado State

9 - Rhode Island

8 - Oklahoma State

7 - VCU

6 - Washington State

5 - UTEP

4 - UAB

3 - Duquesne

2 - Penn State

1 - Cleveland State

 

 

5) Rank the bottom 12 auto-bids (placeholder teams in parentheses for conferences not yet done with tournaments) for placement at the bottom of the S-Curve.

 

12 - Jackson State

11 - Hampton

10 - Arkansas-Little Rock

9 - Vermont

8 - Sam Houston State

7 - UNC-Asheville

6 - Long Island

5 - Bucknell

4 - Morehead State

3 - Northern Colorado

2 - Wofford

1 - Oakland

 

Edited March 11, 2011 by Andy