Cubs Acquire Garza for Archer, Lee, Guyer, Chirinos & Fuld

[dew1679666265]

There's a long history of blah with Garza as well and he doesn't have starting his career as a catcher to fall back on like Wells does.

[Guest]

Wells is a guy that defense independent metrics are going to overrate a bit. If you're drafting a team from scratch, you take Garza. He has better stuff, he's produced at a higher level, and for next year he's probably going to have the better performance. That said, Wells is a fine pitcher, even with his "decline" last year he was plenty good and valuable, and he is still cost controlled(especially for his value). You don't add Garza to replace Wells, because that's a marginal improvement that isn't worth the cost of adding Garza's salary and paying the player price for him. It's the same reason you don't trade Soto for Adrian Gonzalez. Trade something centering around Vitters or Lee(maybe both?) for Garza, make that Chirinos/Dolis for Davis/O'Day deal, and find a way to trade Gorzelanny and Kosuke to get under budget without getting robbed.

 

 

Z, Demp, Garza, Wells, Cashner/Webb looks pretty damn decent

 

I'm thinking it would be Cashner/Silva because of the money limitations, but even that looks pretty solid. To go along with:

 

Castro

Byrd

Pena

Soto

Colvin/Ramirez

Ramirez/Soriano

Soriano/Colvin's Platoonmate

DeWitt/Baker

 

And Marmol/Marshall/O'Day/Grabow/Russell/Silva/[one more AAAA arm] makes a pretty good, if middle heavy, team.

[BeerHere]

Who is O'day?

[Clem Fandango]

Who is O'day?

 

Darren O'Day, a really good reliever for Texas who has been rumored to be coming over in a possible Cubs/Rangers swap involving Chris Davis

[Dr. Cub]

It's being said now because there is a history of blah with Wells. If it walks, talks, and acts like a duck.......

 

And they used the same reasoning each of the past two times they said Wells wouldn't be any good. I was in the camp that didn't buy into Wells after his first good year, but he had another pretty solid year last year and his peripherals got a little better. I don't think he'll be an ace at any point, but there's nothing in Garza's history to convince me that he's likely to get much better than he's been either.

 

And you haven't shown me a single stat that leads me to believe he has room to improve on what he's done to this point.

 

Are H, HR, and BB per 9 not peripherals? They ALL got worse with Wells. Mainly because he's a mediocre pitcher with very mediocre talent. Garza has 3 solid years in the majors producing 115ish ERA+, and solid 3.3ish WAR. That to me is a favorable upgrade even with the cost difference.

[treebird]

why are we talking about trading wells for garza? is that something that's actually been discussed, or did somebody just throw that out there?

 

vitters vitters vitters.

[Dr. Cub]

There's a long history of blah with Garza as well and he doesn't have starting his career as a catcher to fall back on like Wells does.

Seriously? Blah is 3 years in the MAJORS of 117, 119, and 110 ERA+? Blah is 3.2, 2.0, and 3.8 WAR? The catcher thing I'm assuming/hoping is sarcasm.

[SouthSideRyan]

I'm assuming the catcher thing is referring to why Wells struggled initially as a pitcher. I'm not seeing the Garza blah though.

[Guest]

There's a long history of blah with Garza as well and he doesn't have starting his career as a catcher to fall back on like Wells does.

Seriously? Blah is 3 years in the MAJORS of 117, 119, and 110 ERA+? Blah is 3.2, 2.0, and 3.8 WAR? The catcher thing I'm assuming/hoping is sarcasm.

 

What does his ERA+ look like after you exclude about 8 to 10 starts against 3 of the top 5 best offenses in the major leagues (NYY, Boston and Toronto)?

 

A sub 4.00 ERA in the AL East year after year is appealing to me. The difference of facing Milwaukee, Houston and Pittsburgh 8 to 10 times in comparison to the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays should lower that ERA even more. Probably not an ace, but certainly a middle of the rotation arm that should be good for many more years yet.

[fromthestretch]

There's a long history of blah with Garza as well and he doesn't have starting his career as a catcher to fall back on like Wells does.

Seriously? Blah is 3 years in the MAJORS of 117, 119, and 110 ERA+? Blah is 3.2, 2.0, and 3.8 WAR? The catcher thing I'm assuming/hoping is sarcasm.

 

What does his ERA+ look like after you exclude about 8 to 10 starts against 3 of the top 5 best offenses in the major leagues (NYY, Boston and Toronto)?

 

A sub 4.00 ERA in the AL East year after year is appealing to me. The difference of facing Milwaukee, Houston and Pittsburgh 8 to 10 times in comparison to the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays should lower that ERA even more. Probably not an ace, but certainly a middle of the rotation arm that should be good for many more years yet.

 

Granted, the sample size is small (11 starts), but he hasn't exactly fared well against NL opponents in inter-league play.

[dew1679666265]

Seriously? Blah is 3 years in the MAJORS of 117, 119, and 110 ERA+? Blah is 3.2, 2.0, and 3.8 WAR? The catcher thing I'm assuming/hoping is sarcasm.

 

If Wells and his 3.1 and 3.3 WAR are blah and his 4.09 and 4.24 are blah, then yes Garza's lesser stats are blah as well. His K/9 got better by a full K, his BB/9 and HR/9 got slightly worse (.42 and .12 respectively), his LOB% got a little better while his BABIP went up and his GB/FB rate got ever so slightly better. Overall, his peripherals got slightly better than last year, though if his BABIP stays high that's not a good sign.

 

And Fangraphs has Wells with WARs of 3.3 and 3.1, while Garza's best WARs are 3.2 and 2.9. He also has seasons of 1.8 and 1.4 WAR.

 

The catcher thing is partially an explanation of why it took him so long to reach the majors, he spent the first year and a half of his pro career as a catcher. That could also explain why it's taken him a little longer to learn how to pitch at the professional level. How much of an impact did that have on his performance? I don't know, but Garza has had one more full season than Wells and two more partial seasons.

[dew1679666265]

I'm assuming the catcher thing is referring to why Wells struggled initially as a pitcher. I'm not seeing the Garza blah though.

 

My point was that if Wells has been blah, then Garza has as well. And you're right about why I brought up the catcher thing, it also might help explain why it took Wells so long to get to the majors.

[Northside Blues]

Garza has a career 3.83 ERA against the Red Sox, 4.40 against the Yankees and 2.14 against the Jays (granted their offense isn't always good). Combine the three and he is below his career mark of 3.97. The last three years (his time as a Ray), he has a 3.86 ERA over, 3.97 ERA against the Sox, 1.47 against Toronto and 4.22 against New York. This year alone he got bombed by the three, to be fair. Regardless, in his career he's only slightly worse against Boston and New York collectively. It won't make that large of a difference not playing them as much. Of course switching to the NL and facing a pitcher twice a game, will make a larger difference.

[treebird]

guys he has a 12.46 career era against the cardinals THAT'S OUR BIGGEST RIVAL

 

what are you thinken jimbo (besides time to eat the donuts)

[dew1679666265]

why are we talking about trading wells for garza? is that something that's actually been discussed, or did somebody just throw that out there?

 

vitters vitters vitters.

 

gooney brought it up as a trade he'd (somewhat reluctantly) go for. The only names mentioned on the Cubs' side are that Jackson and Archer won't be involved.

[fromthestretch]

One other thing to consider is how much Garza was able to benefit from a solid defense behind him. Tampa Bay has been a much better defensive team than the Cubs the last few seasons. I'm honestly not sure how much of an impact that may have on his numbers.

[dew1679666265]

One other thing to consider is how much Garza was able to benefit from a solid defense behind him. Tampa Bay has been a much better defensive team than the Cubs the last few seasons. I'm honestly not sure how much of an impact that may have on his numbers.

 

That would explain why Wells has better xFIPs than Garza, while Garza has had good ERAs.

[David]

why are we talking about trading wells for garza? is that something that's actually been discussed, or did somebody just throw that out there?

 

vitters vitters vitters.

 

gooney brought it up as a trade he'd (somewhat reluctantly) go for. The only names mentioned on the Cubs' side are that Jackson and Archer won't be involved.

 

 

That was me... I'm pretty sure goony would be against it.

[rocket]

The Cubs aren't going to the playoffs next year. Why trade away prospects for short term production? Does anyone really want Garza around long term?

 

sure. 200 innings of above average to good production for the past 3 seasons and he's only 27.

[Tanner_20]

guys he has a 12.46 career era against the cardinals THAT'S OUR BIGGEST RIVAL

 

what are you thinken jimbo (besides time to eat the donuts)

is this serious? i hope not. that was one game. wow.

[MWV]

guys he has a 12.46 career era against the cardinals THAT'S OUR BIGGEST RIVAL

 

what are you thinken jimbo (besides time to eat the donuts)

is this serious? i hope not. that was one game. wow.

I will take the liberty of assuring you, on Treeman's behalf, that this was sarcasm.

[Tanner_20]

guys he has a 12.46 career era against the cardinals THAT'S OUR BIGGEST RIVAL

 

what are you thinken jimbo (besides time to eat the donuts)

is this serious? i hope not. that was one game. wow.

I will take the liberty of assuring you, on Treeman's behalf, that this was sarcasm.

thank you, i've seen more bizzare posts here. Especially in the trans thread. :? People (not necessarily in this case) decide that they dont like the idea of adding a player and try to convince everyone else that they're opinion is correct. As though that opinion matters...

[jersey cubs fan]

guys he has a 12.46 career era against the cardinals THAT'S OUR BIGGEST RIVAL

 

what are you thinken jimbo (besides time to eat the donuts)

is this serious? i hope not. that was one game. wow.

I will take the liberty of assuring you, on Treeman's behalf, that this was sarcasm.

thank you, i've seen more bizzare posts here. Especially in the trans thread. :? People (not necessarily in this case) decide that they dont like the idea of adding a player and try to convince everyone else that they're opinion is correct. As though that opinion matters...

 

You think that is bizarre, you should see the posts in the trannies thread.

[SouthSideRyan]

guys he has a 12.46 career era against the cardinals THAT'S OUR BIGGEST RIVAL

 

what are you thinken jimbo (besides time to eat the donuts)

is this serious? i hope not. that was one game. wow.

I will take the liberty of assuring you, on Treeman's behalf, that this was sarcasm.

thank you, i've seen more bizzare posts here. Especially in the trans thread. :? People (not necessarily in this case) decide that they dont like the idea of adding a player and try to convince everyone else that they're opinion is correct. As though that opinion matters...

 

You think that is bizarre, you should see the posts in the trannies thread.

 

Let me take the liberty of assuring you that all of tree's posts in that thread are serious.

[David]

rofl