Cubs Acquire Garza for Archer, Lee, Guyer, Chirinos & Fuld

[jersey cubs fan]

I'm just grasping at straws trying to divine why some are so sure he's trending toward a big decline. If you believe he's a good bet to rebound next year or to just not get worse every year from here on out, he's a solid value and we're selling him short if he's used to acquire a guy who's 10x more expensive and not markedly better than he is.

 

He turns 29 next summer. He is who he is and I really don't see much hope for a rebound.

 

And what reason do we have to believe that Garza will be much better than Wells from here on out? He hasn't been to this point.

 

Because he's younger and has already accomplished more, plus has better stuff.

[dew1679666265]

Wells has a much smaller sample size to choose from. In other words, in 3 years (assuming Garza came to the NL) those numbers would be vastly different.

 

Which also means we have a much less clear idea of exactly how good Wells will be. He's already been a lot better than many people thought he would be, while Garza hasn't turned the corner yet despite better stuff than Wells.

 

I don't see any reason to pay Garza $5+ million when we have Wells for significantly cheaper. Garza hasn't been significantly better than Wells.

 

Garza has a significantly better resume and is 15 months younger.

 

Show me the numbers that say he's been significantly better. I've already shown a number of stats, as has grassbass, that show he and Wells have been pretty similar overall.

[erik316wttn]

I like Garza, but I'm not sure what makes him more likely to excel in a move to the NL than any other pitcher.

 

Ok, I retract the "excel" comment, but I still think he'd be an improvement and could be a solid pitcher for us.

[Dr. Cub]

Wells has a much smaller sample size to choose from. In other words, in 3 years (assuming Garza came to the NL) those numbers would be vastly different.

 

Which also means we have a much less clear idea of exactly how good Wells will be. He's already been a lot better than many people thought he would be, while Garza hasn't turned the corner yet despite better stuff than Wells.

 

I don't see any reason to pay Garza $5+ million when we have Wells for significantly cheaper. Garza hasn't been significantly better than Wells.

 

I would say a 6 year history of being very mediocre with exception of his '09 year in the minors, plus one great year, and then a massive decline are enough for me to believe the 2 good years were the aberration.

[jersey cubs fan]

Show me the numbers that say he's been significantly better. I've already shown a number of stats, as has grassbass, that show he and Wells have been pretty similar overall.

 

For only the last two years, while one guy was pitching in the AL East and the other guy was in the NL Central.

[dew1679666265]

Because he's younger and has already accomplished more, plus has better stuff.

 

I'll give you that he's a year younger and has better stuff, but that isn't worth $5+ million difference between the two. And I haven't seen anything to show Garza has been significantly better than Wells to this point.

[Dr. Cub]

Because he's younger and has already accomplished more, plus has better stuff.

 

I'll give you that he's a year younger and has better stuff, but that isn't worth $5+ million difference between the two. And I haven't seen anything to show Garza has been significantly better than Wells to this point.

 

We won't know for a while, but I think the 5+ million difference is a bit much. Regardless of that, Wells has a lengthy history of being mediocre in the minors, and two opposing years in the majors at age 27/28. Garza has history of pitching well in the majors at a much younger age. The fact that their potential, going forward based on "stuff" is also quite different is enough for me to accept the cost difference.

[dew1679666265]

Show me the numbers that say he's been significantly better. I've already shown a number of stats, as has grassbass, that show he and Wells have been pretty similar overall.

 

For only the last two years, while one guy was pitching in the AL East and the other guy was in the NL Central.

 

This is in response to both you and Dr. Cub:

 

So Garza being mediocre for more years than Wells, despite having lesser numbers while in the majors, means we should pay more for Garza than Wells? When neither are likely to be great pitchers going forward, I don't see that as a good allocation of funds.

[dew1679666265]

We won't know for a while, but I think the 5+ million difference is a bit much. Regardless of that, Wells has a lengthy history of being mediocre in the minors, and two opposing years in the majors at age 27/28. Garza has history of pitching well in the majors at a much younger age. The fact that their potential, going forward based on "stuff" is also quite different is enough for me to accept the cost difference.

 

A 4.09 and 4.24 xFIP are not opposing numbers. Plus, his K/9 improved by 1, while his BB/9 increased only .4 from his first to his second year. Garza has had only one year in the majors like Wells' 2010 and none like his 2009.

 

$5 mil is a lot to gamble that Wells has been a fluke for two years and Garza will get 30 xFIP points better by moving to the NL Central.

[davearm2]

Perhaps I'm being greedy, but what about a rotation that includes Z, Demp, Webb, Garza, and Wells? Cashner next in line if there's injury or ineffectiveness.

 

Doesn't seem that hard to imagine, if the Cubs are talking both with Webb's folks and the Rays. Plus it seems like we'd be able to recoup the lost prospects sent for Garza by dealing Gorzellany and Silva.

 

Of course finding payroll for Pena + Webb + Garza might be an issue.

[JeffH]

The Wells versus Garza discussion is pointless, because the Rays likely don't want Wells and Hendry likely doesn't want to trade Wells.

[Guest]

Wells is a guy that defense independent metrics are going to overrate a bit. If you're drafting a team from scratch, you take Garza. He has better stuff, he's produced at a higher level, and for next year he's probably going to have the better performance. That said, Wells is a fine pitcher, even with his "decline" last year he was plenty good and valuable, and he is still cost controlled(especially for his value). You don't add Garza to replace Wells, because that's a marginal improvement that isn't worth the cost of adding Garza's salary and paying the player price for him. It's the same reason you don't trade Soto for Adrian Gonzalez. Trade something centering around Vitters or Lee(maybe both?) for Garza, make that Chirinos/Dolis for Davis/O'Day deal, and find a way to trade Gorzelanny and Kosuke to get under budget without getting robbed.

[dew1679666265]

Perhaps I'm being greedy, but what about a rotation that includes Z, Demp, Webb, Garza, and Wells? Cashner next in line if there's injury or ineffectiveness.

 

Doesn't seem that hard to imagine, if the Cubs are talking both with Webb's folks and the Rays. Plus it seems like we'd be able to recoup the lost prospects sent for Garza by dealing Gorzellany and Silva.

 

Of course finding payroll for Pena + Webb + Garza might be an issue.

 

I kind of think it's an either/or between Garza and Webb.

[Post Count Padder]

Perhaps I'm being greedy, but what about a rotation that includes Z, Demp, Webb, Garza, and Wells? Cashner next in line if there's injury or ineffectiveness.

 

Doesn't seem that hard to imagine, if the Cubs are talking both with Webb's folks and the Rays. Plus it seems like we'd be able to recoup the lost prospects sent for Garza by dealing Gorzellany and Silva.

 

Of course finding payroll for Pena + Webb + Garza might be an issue.

We would not get the same quality of prospects back in Silva or Gorzellany trades. Gorzo wouldn't bring back much on his own, and Silva is still a fat pitcher who doesn't strike people out and had heart issues. Hendry should've sold high on him back in June.

[JeffH]

Wells is a guy that defense independent metrics are going to overrate a bit. If you're drafting a team from scratch, you take Garza. He has better stuff, he's produced at a higher level, and for next year he's probably going to have the better performance. That said, Wells is a fine pitcher, even with his "decline" last year he was plenty good and valuable, and he is still cost controlled(especially for his value). You don't add Garza to replace Wells, because that's a marginal improvement that isn't worth the cost of adding Garza's salary and paying the player price for him. It's the same reason you don't trade Soto for Adrian Gonzalez. Trade something centering around Vitters or Lee(maybe both?) for Garza, make that Chirinos/Dolis for Davis/O'Day deal, and find a way to trade Gorzelanny and Kosuke to get under budget without getting robbed.

 

All good ideas, except let's keep Kosuke.

[dew1679666265]

Wells is a guy that defense independent metrics are going to overrate a bit. If you're drafting a team from scratch, you take Garza. He has better stuff, he's produced at a higher level, and for next year he's probably going to have the better performance. That said, Wells is a fine pitcher, even with his "decline" last year he was plenty good and valuable, and he is still cost controlled(especially for his value). You don't add Garza to replace Wells, because that's a marginal improvement that isn't worth the cost of adding Garza's salary and paying the player price for him. It's the same reason you don't trade Soto for Adrian Gonzalez. Trade something centering around Vitters or Lee(maybe both?) for Garza, make that Chirinos/Dolis for Davis/O'Day deal, and find a way to trade Gorzelanny and Kosuke to get under budget without getting robbed.

 

Yeah, I'd do Garza for Wells if both cost the same amount. I haven't seen enough to want to pay Garza $5 million more than Wells, though.

[Dr. Cub]

We won't know for a while, but I think the 5+ million difference is a bit much. Regardless of that, Wells has a lengthy history of being mediocre in the minors, and two opposing years in the majors at age 27/28. Garza has history of pitching well in the majors at a much younger age. The fact that their potential, going forward based on "stuff" is also quite different is enough for me to accept the cost difference.

 

A 4.09 and 4.24 xFIP are not opposing numbers. Plus, his K/9 improved by 1, while his BB/9 increased only .4 from his first to his second year. Garza has had only one year in the majors like Wells' 2010 and none like his 2009.

 

$5 mil is a lot to gamble that Wells has been a fluke for two years and Garza will get 30 xFIP points better by moving to the NL Central.

 

 

Wells will NEVER have another year like that, it was a complete aberration. Garza will simply outproduce him over their respective careers. I would go as far as to say I would not be suprised if Wells is a hilarious afterthought in 2 years.

[Guest]

Wells is a guy that defense independent metrics are going to overrate a bit. If you're drafting a team from scratch, you take Garza. He has better stuff, he's produced at a higher level, and for next year he's probably going to have the better performance. That said, Wells is a fine pitcher, even with his "decline" last year he was plenty good and valuable, and he is still cost controlled(especially for his value). You don't add Garza to replace Wells, because that's a marginal improvement that isn't worth the cost of adding Garza's salary and paying the player price for him. It's the same reason you don't trade Soto for Adrian Gonzalez. Trade something centering around Vitters or Lee(maybe both?) for Garza, make that Chirinos/Dolis for Davis/O'Day deal, and find a way to trade Gorzelanny and Kosuke to get under budget without getting robbed.

 

All good ideas, except let's keep Kosuke.

 

I'd like to as well, but if I have to choose between a Colvin/trade target platoon in RF + Garza or Kosuke/Colvin + [insert least favorite SP here], then I like the former.

[davearm2]

I wonder what the market for Fukudome is like this winter, and whether the Cubs would have to include $$$ to move him.

 

I like the guy as a player, but getting out from under that entire $13M and living with Colvin + Guyer and/or Davis in RF seems pretty palatable if the savings are plowed into Webb and/or Garza.

[dew1679666265]

Wells will NEVER have another year like that, it was a complete aberration. Garza will simply outproduce him over their respective careers. I would go as far as to say I would not be suprised if Wells is a hilarious afterthought in 2 years.

 

This was said when he was first called up, after his first year and it's being said now. I don't know if Wells will continue to be a solid pitcher or if he'll collapse, but I also don't see any reason to think Garza will get a lot better from his career 4.45 xFIP. If I'm gambling either way, I want to gamble with the guy that doesn't cost $5 million.

[dew1679666265]

I wonder what the market for Fukudome is like this winter, and whether the Cubs would have to include $$$ to move him.

 

I like the guy as a player, but getting out from under that entire $13M and living with Colvin + Guyer and/or Davis in RF seems pretty palatable if the savings are plowed into Webb and/or Garza.

 

There were reports earlier in the offseason that the Cubs were leaning toward keeping Kosuke because there just wasn't a market for him right now. From the reports out there, he seems very much like a guy who is more valuable to keep than what we'd get on the open market.

[Reaper]

The Cubs aren't going to the playoffs next year. Why trade away prospects for short term production? Does anyone really want Garza around long term?

[Dr. Cub]

Wells will NEVER have another year like that, it was a complete aberration. Garza will simply outproduce him over their respective careers. I would go as far as to say I would not be suprised if Wells is a hilarious afterthought in 2 years.

 

This was said when he was first called up, after his first year and it's being said now. I don't know if Wells will continue to be a solid pitcher or if he'll collapse, but I also don't see any reason to think Garza will get a lot better from his career 4.45 xFIP. If I'm gambling either way, I want to gamble with the guy that doesn't cost $5 million.

 

It's being said now because there is a history of blah with Wells. If it walks, talks, and acts like a duck.......

[David]

Wells is a guy that defense independent metrics are going to overrate a bit. If you're drafting a team from scratch, you take Garza. He has better stuff, he's produced at a higher level, and for next year he's probably going to have the better performance. That said, Wells is a fine pitcher, even with his "decline" last year he was plenty good and valuable, and he is still cost controlled(especially for his value). You don't add Garza to replace Wells, because that's a marginal improvement that isn't worth the cost of adding Garza's salary and paying the player price for him. It's the same reason you don't trade Soto for Adrian Gonzalez. Trade something centering around Vitters or Lee(maybe both?) for Garza, make that Chirinos/Dolis for Davis/O'Day deal, and find a way to trade Gorzelanny and Kosuke to get under budget without getting robbed.

 

 

Z, Demp, Garza, Wells, Cashner/Webb looks pretty damn decent

[dew1679666265]

It's being said now because there is a history of blah with Wells. If it walks, talks, and acts like a duck.......

 

And they used the same reasoning each of the past two times they said Wells wouldn't be any good. I was in the camp that didn't buy into Wells after his first good year, but he had another pretty solid year last year and his peripherals got a little better. I don't think he'll be an ace at any point, but there's nothing in Garza's history to convince me that he's likely to get much better than he's been either.

 

And you haven't shown me a single stat that leads me to believe he has room to improve on what he's done to this point.