NSBB Prospect Rankings

[davell]

I still think Szczur can be elite. I'm not putting Lake in the same category as him just yet.

 

I think Szczur isn't slugging .400 while getting his second taste of A+ as an old 22-year-old.

 

Maybe I owe Keith Law an apology?

 

It looks like he's really working on plate discipline though. I think the slugging comes after that with him.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Imagine a very brief nexus where all of our high picks are signed, Rizzo and Jackson are still at AAA, and we add Soler.

 

At that moment in time, where would our farm system rank?

[davell]

No idea, because other teams will have their guys signed as well. But, season over, after trading Demp and signing Soler(hopefully) I think we're top 10. Maybe 7-8 if we trade Garza.

[Guest]

Imagine a very brief nexus where all of our high picks are signed, Rizzo and Jackson are still at AAA, and we add Soler.

 

At that moment in time, where would our farm system rank?

 

 

Let's add a 22 year old Starlin Castro hitting like .400/.410/.550 in Iowa to that

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Imagine a very brief nexus where all of our high picks are signed, Rizzo and Jackson are still at AAA, and we add Soler.

 

At that moment in time, where would our farm system rank?

 

 

Let's add a 22 year old Starlin Castro hitting like .400/.410/.550 in Iowa to that

 

That's just silly. You took a cool thing and made it silly.

[davell]

Heading into next season, I figure we'll have Almora somewhere in the top 3, Johnson and Blackburn around the 10 range or so, Underwood betweem 10-15, and if anyone else pushes themselves into our top 30's, I figure it'll be Bruno.

[toonsterwu]

I like Bruno a ton. If he moves full-time to 2nd, I wouldn't be averse to putting him top 20, but again, personal bias. That said, you have a guy who potentially is solid defensively at 2nd (still think he can play short), could potentially hit for average, could potentially have average power. A very nice package.

 

I don't know if Almora would be a lock to be top 3 for me. For most, I imagine, yes. But ... if Brett Jackson is still rookie eligible (quite possible), then 2 spots in the top 3 should be taken (with Baez). That leaves one spot, and I think you could make a case for Matt Szczur ahead of Almora, and depending on how a guy like Junior Lake finishes, perhaps him as well. I think you could make an argument for Marco Hernandez to be on par, roughly, with Almora.

[El Duderino]

I'm not sure how I can buy that Lake and Hernandez are even in the same league as Almora, let alone Szczur.

[Cubswin11]

I like Bruno a ton. If he moves full-time to 2nd, I wouldn't be averse to putting him top 20, but again, personal bias. That said, you have a guy who potentially is solid defensively at 2nd (still think he can play short), could potentially hit for average, could potentially have average power. A very nice package.

 

I don't know if Almora would be a lock to be top 3 for me. For most, I imagine, yes. But ... if Brett Jackson is still rookie eligible (quite possible), then 2 spots in the top 3 should be taken (with Baez). That leaves one spot, and I think you could make a case for Matt Szczur ahead of Almora, and depending on how a guy like Junior Lake finishes, perhaps him as well. I think you could make an argument for Marco Hernandez to be on par, roughly, with Almora.

Unless they try to turn Almora into a pitcher or make him start doing everything left handed there are no arguments to be made to have those guys ahead of or on par with Almora.

[toonsterwu]

Well, I've been a notable Marco Hernandez fan, so maybe there's some bias, but with Hernandez, you have a guy with plus tools, plus bat speed, and some HR projection at short. With Almora, you have a solid-to-plus tools CF prospect who is purportedly polished (and I buy that he's polished ... but then again, Mark Pawelek was polished).

 

I liked the Almora pick a ton, and was pushing for Almora over Correa in the draft thread, but I'm not sure how Almora is that far ahead of Hernandez as a talent ... and I like Almora ton. But ... what does he offer that makes him that far ahead (per El Duderino and Cubswin's comments)? I can buy Almora ahead ... but that far? Just don't see it. A plus tools kid who can stick at short, while offering good offensive potential vs. an average-to-borderline plus tools kid for CF who is "polished"? Don't see the gap.

 

Edit: I threw Lake in there more because I know some folks have him as 4th/5th in the system as of now, not because I really cared to defend Lake that high.

[davell]

I think a lot depends on who's analysis you look at, when it comes to Almora. McDaniel thinks he can be Beltran and is the best player in the class when all is said and done. I asked Chris Crawford if a line of 300/375/475 with 20/20 was too unrealistic for his prime years and he told me no. I've heard 70 hit tool thrown out there for him from a few guys. I like Hernandez a bunch myself and have had him in my top 10. But even though he came on late, his early season struggles do resignate with me somewhat. Let's see how Almora does, assuming he signs obviously, but I don't see Marco winding up in his area of prospectdom, to be honest.

[toonsterwu]

I think a lot depends on who's analysis you look at, when it comes to Almora. McDaniel thinks he can be Beltran and is the best player in the class when all is said and done. I asked Chris Crawford if a line of 300/375/475 with 20/20 was too unrealistic for his prime years and he told me no. I've heard 70 hit tool thrown out there for him from a few guys. I like Hernandez a bunch myself and have had him in my top 10. But even though he came on late, his early season struggles do resignate with me somewhat. Let's see how Almora does, assuming he signs obviously, but I don't see Marco winding up in his area of prospectdom, to be honest.

 

Fair enough.

 

I haven't argued that Almora shouldn't be ahead of Marco, but just that I don't see a huge gap. On tools/talent, I think Marco is ahead (better speed, likely better arm, likely better bat speed based on the reports out there that I've seen (which is no knock on Almora, but more a nod to Marco's plus bat speed). In terms of disicipline, I guess the benefit of the doubt goes with Almora for now, since we saw Marco struggle in April). And as craig noted, there's some split issues with Marco.

 

To me, it's a case of two similarly talented guys, one at short, one at CF, but the one in CF might have a higher floor (and this is a bigger unknown than is being acknowledged ... as polish is a very tough thing to determine with young kids, in any sport), while the one at shortstop might have a higher ceiling because of the raw tools that he presents.

 

I can buy that some of the struggles Marco went through in April has probably left people a bit sour on him, and heck, it left me a bit sour as well, but let's not forget the tools that this kid has. It's really, really good, but the question is whether or not he can put it together.

[davell]

Toonster, just curious, why do you like Hernandez that much more than Torreyes? Same age. Torreyes certainly played well in A ball last year and even though he's struggled mightily in Daytona, his K rate hasn't changed at all. Lending hope he' s possibly been unlucky. Is it just the position thing? Body type? I'm sure both play a part here, but I wouldn't think that's it either. Especially since Torreyes can conceivably put up solid offensive numbers at a position you usually don't get it from either.

[toonsterwu]

Toonster, just curious, why do you like Hernandez that much more than Torreyes? Same age. Torreyes certainly played well in A ball last year and even though he's struggled mightily in Daytona, his K rate hasn't changed at all. Lending hope he' s possibly been unlucky. Is it just the position thing? Body type? I'm sure both play a part here, but I wouldn't think that's it either. Especially since Torreyes can conceivably put up solid offensive numbers at a position you usually don't get it from either.

 

Largely on tools, as is often the case for me when comparing guys in the lower levels. It's not that I don't wish Torreyes well, and it's not that I can't envision a scenario where Torreyes excels, but it's the exception when a guy with only one plus tool manages to maximize his ability to and push to the top (and yes, I understand that some would argue Torreyes has two plus tools).

 

With Marco, you have plus bat speed, plus speed, borderline plus arm, some HR potential. I don't know if his hit tool is plus, as scouts had previously suggested, but it's probably above average. There's just a lot more to bet on, and then you toss in the positional difference, and that's why I like Marco a lot more than I like Ronald. But if Marco doesn't settle his K rate down, then all his tools in the world won't matter (in that respect, the additional teaching in XST and Boise should perhaps be a plus for him).

 

Then again, when I did my list on Sickels ages ago, it's not like I put a huge gap b/w the two. I had Marco higher, but he was a low B for me, with Torreyes as a C+ (and if I did it now, I'd probably slide Marco to a B- and Torreyes still a C+). It's not like I'm viewing one as an elite prospect versus one as an average prospect. I just like the guy at a tougher position with more tools to work with, but there's definitely some risk with Marco.

[davell]

Potentially, our top 10 heading into next season conceivably would include Baez, Almora, Soler, Brett,(could easily come up in September and keep rookie status) a guy we've received for Dempster, and possibly 2 guys we'd get for Garza. Add in Szczur, and it'd only leave 2 spots. Probably filled by Lake, McNutt, Vitters, Pierce Johnson, Blackburn, Underwood, Candelario, Hernandez, Torreyes, Wells, Whitenack, Maples, Jensen, or Dunston Jr. Basically, after the group of 8, our system has plenty of guys that have a serious chance to step up. But if we do sign Soler, keep Brett down, and trade Garza and Dempster, we could wind up with between 6-8 guys on BA's top 100 next year. Definitely a top 10 system, possibly much higher.

[El Duderino]

I wonder if Rosario could sneak in.

[davell]

Yeah, there's others that could sneak in as well. We could sign a top July 2nd guy, Concepcion, Rosario, Vogelbach, a trade piece for LaHair possibly, Amaya, Malave, Acosta, Burke, Kirk, Silva, Alcantara, who knows? Not all of them even make our top 30 is what's fun. The depth is already there, adding a few top 100ish types vaults us past quite a few teams.

[toonsterwu]

I wonder if Rosario could sneak in.

 

Probably a bit high, and I got in that discussion with uh ... crap who was it again? PriortoTheoIHadWood? on Rosario. Much as I'll "push" him, the consistency on the secondary stuff doesn't seem to be there yet, so it's really a plus fastball, some potential on the secondary stuff.

 

_____

 

Toying around with a personal post-draft top 20 =

 

1. Baez

2. Rizzo

 

3. BJax

 

4. Almora

5. Szczur

6. Hernandez

7. Wells (I still think people seem to be overlooking the fairly solid season he's having)

 

(I know plenty will disagree with my placement on Hernandez and Wells, but I like them there for now, and I like my top 7 ... after that, though, things are messy ... )

 

8. Castillo (can see a case for him as high as 5, but I've always been somewhat ambivalent on Castillo.

9. McNutt- looking more like a pen arm ... but really, who's better than him here? Lake/Vitters ... perhaps, but both have issues. somehow, I keep thinking McNutt when I think of Pierce Johnson, and Underwood/Blackburn seem a bit high here, when I have Maples off the board.

10. Vitters - like a lot of things about the season ... do not like the fact that the K rate seems to keep rising. It's still at a decent level, though, so let's see how things finish out.

11. Lake

12. Candelario - can see him as high as 6 ... but my issue with him is still what position and how much power?

13. Whitenack

14. P. Johnson

15. Maples

16. Rosario

17. Blackburn

18. Underwood (guess I could flip it around)

19. Alcantara

20. Vogelbach

 

eh ... I'll give it another run through later. A lot of guys left off (Cabrera, Rhee (but he's not striking people out), Ha, Concepcion, Jensen, Cardenas). Really not sure how to place the newly acquired arms.

 

Barring a collapse from certain players, I think we're a middle of the pack system (12-18) that could finish a bit higher or a bit lower depending on how seasons play out.

[Guest]

So we can officially put Soler in these

[bukie]

Hard to believe that a year ago last week, Brett Jackson was the easy #1 prospect in the system, and now he's 5th without really falling off his projection.

[Vanilla Ice]

Hard to believe that a year ago last week, Brett Jackson was the easy #1 prospect in the system, and now he's 5th without really falling off his projection.

Wow

[jersey cubs fan]

So we can officially put Soler in these

 

So with Soler, Jackson, Almora and Szczur the Cubs now have what they never had under Hendry, and what forced them into the Soriano situation, depth in the OF. They were constantly bringing in other guys for the OF and completely devoid of help options to Soriano deal, which pretty much meant they had no choice but to acquire him. Hopefully they can get to a point where they are continuously bringing up their own OF depth.

[toonsterwu]

Hard to believe that a year ago last week, Brett Jackson was the easy #1 prospect in the system, and now he's 5th without really falling off his projection.

 

5th? Soler, Rizzo, Baez ... Almora? I'm not sure I would clearly put Brett Jackson 5th ... I think Rizzo/Baez are in a tier of their own, but I'd probably lump Jackson/Soler/Almora in a tier. Soler and Almora MIGHT have higher ceilings (Soler probably does ... keep in mind Almora's tools aren't all that different from Brett), but they are so far away.

[Guest]

Hard to believe that a year ago last week, Brett Jackson was the easy #1 prospect in the system, and now he's 5th without really falling off his projection.

 

5th? Soler, Rizzo, Baez ... Almora? I'm not sure I would clearly put Brett Jackson 5th ... I think Rizzo/Baez are in a tier of their own, but I'd probably lump Jackson/Soler/Almora in a tier. Soler and Almora MIGHT have higher ceilings (Soler probably does ... keep in mind Almora's tools aren't all that different from Brett), but they are so far away.

 

I'm under the impression that Almora's hit tool is significantly better than Jackson's, as is his ability to play CF.

[UMFan83]

Kevin Goldstein ‏@Kevin_Goldstein

Cubs system is getting better. Throw in potential returns for Dempster, Garza and a big pick in 2013 and it could be a HUGE step forward.

 

I don't think its worth ranking the Cubs system until after the deadline, when it could look even better than it does now.

 

If we can trade Garza for 1-2 high profile prospects, we might be a top 10 - top 5 system.