NSBB Prospect Rankings

[jersey cubs fan]

Certainly, he's taken a step back this year. After that step back though, I still have a very hard time coming up with 6 guys who I can say are better prospects at this point. Baez, Almora, and Soler, sure. Past that, and I'm having a hard time coming up with anyone who doesn't have similar warts in their game, and Jackson's stellar minor league past wins out for me.

 

That's probably true. I can't think of anybody obvious, that's for sure.

[El Duderino]

I had Candelario, Vogelbach, and Pierce Johnson 4-6 in the initial list, fwiw. not really sure now, though, considering Johnson hasn't even pitched.

[jersey cubs fan]

I had Candelario, Vogelbach, and Pierce Johnson 4-6 in the initial list, fwiw. not really sure now, though, considering Johnson hasn't even pitched.

 

Vogelbach ahead of Jackson? Are you kidding?

[Guest]

I can see an argument for Candelario (and have made one before) but no way to Vogelbach (way too many question marks compared to Jackson's body of work while being a step away from the bigs) and Johnson (forearm injury).

[El Duderino]

thanks for the feedback. like I said, this is the first time I've really attempted one of these

[Guest]

Guys far away from the big leagues are always way more interesting because their warts have yet to be exposed and their ceilings haven't lowered. That doesn't mean they are better prospects than those close to the bigs.

[Cubswin11]

I think Vogelbach needs a lot more things to go right/fall his way than Jackson does to at least stick in the majors as a semi-regular/backup player. However I could see the argument for Vogelbach's ceiling being a little higher if a lot of things go right he could be a 35-40HR player.

[toonsterwu]

For awhile there, it seemed like a lock that Jeimer Candelario would be in the top 10 of any list, and likely top 7. But he's fallen off the cliff hard. The problem is ... there really aren't that many guys to slot in the top 10. We really need those Dempster and Garza trades (and hopefully more) to help the top of the system (Allen Webster would probably slot top 5 for me if that happened).

[rawaction]

For awhile there, it seemed like a lock that Jeimer Candelario would be in the top 10 of any list, and likely top 7. But he's fallen off the cliff hard. The problem is ... there really aren't that many guys to slot in the top 10. We really need those Dempster and Garza trades (and hopefully more) to help the top of the system (Allen Webster would probably slot top 5 for me if that happened).

 

Agreed. It's hard for me to even get to #4 at this point. Baez, Soler, Almora are easy top 3 for everyone. After that, can you really put a guy striking out 35% of his ABs 4th? Can you put a pitcher there who has either gotten hurt this year, got hurt last year, or has thrown little to no pitches in game action this year? Can you put Szczur there, who's shown no power yet?

 

That being said, I really like the group (including guys alluded to above) that would typically slot in the 8-15 range as far as pure talent/upside. A couple of those guys do something, and you have 3 potential studs at the top of the rankings, along with a few potential stud arms, you're talking about a really good system.

[toonsterwu]

Even Baez, Almora, and Soler have a lot of questions to answer. Baez is the clear top dog in the system, and even Callis is finally acknowledging that his defense has been better than expected (his chat the other day), and that he has a better chance to stick at short than originally thought. That said ... how his approach plays at a higher level, against tougher pitching is still a big, big question.

 

raw, I'm assuming you are talking about Pierce Johnson there, but I just wanted to double check.

 

I think Brett would still be 4th for me, with Vitters 5th, and Szczur 6th. I could perhaps put Johnson 7th, Candelario maybe 8th, and then ... uh ... Alcantara? It's ugly ... almost a choose a name out of a hat after 6th (now, the positive thing is that, from 7-30, we probably have a decent amount of guys who will reach the bigs ... the flip side is that because they don't have the huge ceilings, the chances are high that many will be left unprotected in the coming Rule 5 drafts, this year and next, so the depth could be eaten up a bit).

 

Still got to go with Brett 4th. Perhaps it's more by default, but he still does enough good things (power would be solid for a corner role, walks, has a good glove) to buy that he will be in the bigs in some fashion, for more than a cup of tea. Vitters might be closing in on him, but the more I ask about his defense at 3rd, the more I worry that my whole "he can be passable for a couple years if the bat plays" idea is off, and if he's not at 3rd, I would need to buy him as having above average power (and thus, being average for a corner OF role), which I'm not sold on at the moment.

 

If Szczur was playing like this in AA, I would consider slotting him 4th (that said, he's not that much better, defensively, than Brett in CF ... Szczur might be plus, and Brett might not be, but the gap isn't that big). But it's just so hard to put him higher when he has the big power wart, and is only doing it in A+ right now. He needs to be in AA.

 

One guy to watch for the rest of the year, at least for me, is Whitenack. He had a solid June, has had a horrid July, but inconsistency was expected. the velocity is there, supposedly, and, as much as minor league BABIP's can be utilized as a sign of bad luck ... it seems like he's had some in July (granted, the walks are really high).

[rawaction]

If I had to decide at this moment, I'd probably go ahead and put Pierce Johnson 4th, just because his ranking is based just as much on projection as Soler and Almora, who though they've at least seen the field aren't seasoned minor league vets by any means yet. Brett would be 5th, followed by Szczur and Candelario. Vitters, I'd guess would be 8th, but I'm quietly hoping Lake, Maples, and Whitenack have a strong final 2 months and pass him up.

[El Duderino]

I've got Johnson, Underwood, and Maples lumped together at this point. Whether they should be 4-6 or 10-12, I have no idea.

[Guest]

I've got Johnson, Underwood, and Maples lumped together at this point. Whether they should be 4-6 or 10-12, I have no idea.

 

I can't rate Underwood ahead of Blackburn, and neither are in my top 10.

 

Here's a stab:

 

1. Baez

2. Almora

3. Soler

4. Jackson

5. Candelario

6. Johnson

7. Szczur

8. Vitters

9. Alcantara

10. Vogelbach

[toonsterwu]

Not sure where to note this, but thought someone should note that Sickels Cubs Top 20 Pre-season review is on at his site right now.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/7/27/3192443/chicago-cubs-2012-top-20-pre-season-prospects-in-review#storyjump

[davell]

I've got Blackburn and Underwood between 15-20 right now. Trying to figure out where to slot Paniagua is hard, hope some info comes out on him that we don't know. The hard part right now is tryig to rank Wells, Rosario, and Whitenack. Hopefully, it's going to be easier for Rosario, but we haven't heard a thing, so that's probably not good.

[toonsterwu]

I've got Blackburn and Underwood between 15-20 right now. Trying to figure out where to slot Paniagua is hard, hope some info comes out on him that we don't know. The hard part right now is tryig to rank Wells, Rosario, and Whitenack. Hopefully, it's going to be easier for Rosario, but we haven't heard a thing, so that's probably not good.

 

At worst, I think all three have to slot into that 11-20 range. The system doesn't exactly have that many high upside chips, so Wells/Rosario would seem to have a chance to make it on there. I think people somewhat forget how good Wells' May was (which makes the injury all the more disappointing, he was upping his K rate and becoming more consistent, would've been awesome to see if he could've kept it up).

 

Whitenack's a bit safer to rank in that range, IMO, as he's pitching now and I still hear solid velocity reports on him, so you hope that consistency comes as he gets more work in. I mean, you look at those arms in comparison to say, the Beeler/McNutt types, and for ranking purposes, I'd much rather gamble on them, particularly Wells, who should be pitching by at least mid-season next year, barring something bad happening.

[El Duderino]

I've got Johnson, Underwood, and Maples lumped together at this point. Whether they should be 4-6 or 10-12, I have no idea.

 

I can't rate Underwood ahead of Blackburn

 

I know Blackburn is more polished at this stage, but I love Underwood's ceiling.

[El Duderino]

I've got Blackburn and Underwood between 15-20 right now. Trying to figure out where to slot Paniagua is hard, hope some info comes out on him that we don't know. The hard part right now is tryig to rank Wells, Rosario, and Whitenack. Hopefully, it's going to be easier for Rosario, but we haven't heard a thing, so that's probably not good.

 

At worst, I think all three have to slot into that 11-20 range. The system doesn't exactly have that many high upside chips, so Wells/Rosario would seem to have a chance to make it on there. I think people somewhat forget how good Wells' May was (which makes the injury all the more disappointing, he was upping his K rate and becoming more consistent, would've been awesome to see if he could've kept it up).

 

Whitenack's a bit safer to rank in that range, IMO, as he's pitching now and I still hear solid velocity reports on him, so you hope that consistency comes as he gets more work in. I mean, you look at those arms in comparison to say, the Beeler/McNutt types, and for ranking purposes, I'd much rather gamble on them, particularly Wells, who should be pitching by at least mid-season next year, barring something bad happening.

 

I was unsure where McNutt slots as this point. I guess it depends on if they're committed to keeping him in the bullpen or just letting him work on certain things before moving him back to the rotation.

[toonsterwu]

I think McNutt is in the pen for good. Just my gut feeling, nothing really legitimate to base it on right now.

 

That said, at this stage, his value as a SP just isn't all that high, and in the pen ... I have to think that a guy like Alberto Cabrera would rank ahead of him, and I don't see Cabrera in the top 10 of the Cubs system as of now (although he's close for me ... those are some dominant numbers he's put up this year, and he has the stuff to project as a closer type arm). After the top 10 ... well, the Cubs system is sort of a free-for-all after the top 8 or so, so you could make a case for McNutt in a number of places. My last extended stab had him in that 17-20 range, but I could see lower.

 

I mean, here's a food for thought thing - out of the pen ... is Trey McNutt really that much better than say, Marcus Hatley? McNutt's ranking was always propped up by his starter potential, and without having heard reports on stuff out of the pen so far, even if we take a positive assessment and assume he can kick his fastball up a notch and tighten up his breaking ball, we're still talking a mid-90's guy with a good breaking ball. Sounds awfully close to Hatley, who can hit upper 90's.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Quick stab:

 

1. Baez

2. Almora

3. Soler

(these three could go in any defensible order)

********

4. Vizcaino (could move up to the top tier if he's healthy this spring)

********

(big dropoff here)

5. Candelario

6. Villanueva

7. Vitters

8. Jackson

9. Castillo

10. Alcantara

[Guest]

Quick stab:

 

1. Baez

2. Almora

3. Soler

(these three could go in any defensible order)

********

4. Vizcaino (could move up to the top tier if he's healthy this spring)

********

(big dropoff here)

5. Candelario

6. Villanueva

7. Vitters

8. Jackson

9. Castillo

10. Alcantara

I'm pretty close to that, but I might slide Pierce Johnson in at 9. I'll probably have Candy below VV&J, too.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I have trouble putting freshly drafted pitchers into the top-10. Let them all go through the meat grinder for a few seasons and see who survives.

[Guest]

My top 4 is the same with the same gap. I have Jackson at 5 and Candelario at 6. Need more time to decide on Villanueva and how he slots in te back of my top 10.

 

I believe Welington Castillo completed achieved the service time requirement for a rookie and is no longer a prospect.

[Guest]

Honestly, after the top four I could slot about 8-10 guys in just about any order after that and defend it. Though if pushed, I think I'd break them into the following groups:

 

5-9

Vitters

Villanueva

Jackson

P Johnson

Candelario

 

10-14

Torreyes

Alcantara

Lake

Szczur

 

15-17

Marco

Amaya

Vogelbach

 

Surprisingly (at least to me), this is when I start to consider some of the other starting pitchers we have in the system such as Rosario, Wells, etc.

 

Of course, doing this without even looking up names is going to lead to big oversights on my part. :)

[davell]

1 Baez

2 Soler

3 Almora

4 Vizcaino

5 B Jackson

6 Vitters

7 Candelario

8 Villanueva

9 Szczur

10 P Johnson

11 Vogelbach

12 Torreyes

13 Alcantara

14 Amaya

15 Lake