NSBB Prospect Rankings

[toonsterwu]

yeah, that's going to change things. i think a lot more changes are likely to happen, but i put up what i had on account of sickels list coming out soon, meaning almost all of the major cubs lists from this off-season will largely be done.

 

heck, i expect changes to happen throughout the year. the system might look fairly different by mid-season compared to now.

[davell]

How about a quarter season list? Probably not going to be fun to look at, considering the struggles some of our guys have had. Anyway, here's my current top 10.

 

1- Rizzo Obvious call, farm takes a hit when he loses his eligibility in a month or so. But he's done nothing to show he's not ready.

2- Javy Baez Basing everything off of AZPhil reports, but he's the upside type we need to have many more of. Can't wait to see what his numbers look like after a month or so in Peoria.

3- B Jackson K's are troubling to say the least, but everyone seems to think of it as an adjustment time and he'll come out of it. We may even get to keep him on this list for next year, depending on when we bring him up. My guess is late July, which would eliminate his prospect status.

4- Szczur The added plate discipline has really been a bright spot this season. Same with the steals. I'm starting to think he's a guy that could all of a sudden just "click" and get it all together at once.

5- McNutt Big drop off for me after 4, McNutt needs to be much more economical with his pitches. I'm really starting to look at him as a back end of the pen guy than as a starter.

6- Candelario Again, basing everything off AZPhil's reports, but it looks like his bat is for real, just need to find him a position. Hopefully, he gets a shot at Peoria later on.

7- Lake Is the plate discipline real or not? My guess is no, but he's still got tools and is making enough contact to warrant getting a little excited about at least.

8- Alberto Cabrera Moving him back to Tennessee and using him in the pen has certainly agreed with him. I think we'll see him in the majors by August and with his stuff, he could easily become a quality set up guy.

9- Vitters Wish there was more plate discipline, but he's hitting. I doubt he gets a callup this year, but he is just 22, so while I'm not as high on him as most, he definitely has time.

10- Michael Jensen I'll throw him up here because he's been excellent. Unsure what he's throwing right now, but his K rate is decent anyway and I hope he gets moved up at midseason to give us a better feel for what we've got here.

 

Honorable Mentions Kyler Burke, Arismendy Alcantara, Marco Hernandez, Dillon Maples, Ben Wells, Austin Kirk, Dan Vogelbach, Ronald Torreyes, Robert Whitenack, Kevin Rhoderick.

 

That's my next 10, no clue as to what order, other than Burke shows up at 11 right now.

[toonsterwu]

Off the top, I'd probably slap a top 10 (and this isn't one of my pre-typed posts, making this up as I go along)

 

(agree with your top 4 davell)

 

1. Anthony Rizzo. Still not sure he's going to be this elite, dominant slugger ... but he should, at the very least, be Adam LaRoche-ish, and probably a tick better. He really has nothing left to prove in the PCL.

 

2. Javier Baez - More out of default (that said, he wouldn't fall below 3) because while I tend to think that this is a slump for Brett Jackson,it's been such a bad, bad streak that it's hard to justify him here. That said, Baez looks like, as of now, that he might be able to be at short, and his power may be the best of the top tier bats.

 

3. Brett Jackson - Still a likely decent-solid defensive CF for perhaps his cost-controlled/team-controlled years, and should get on base and hit for enough power. The K's have been ghastly during this poor run, though.

 

Small Gap

 

4. Matt Szczur - Discipline improvements and readiness kick him up a notch. Will he be able to hit for more power?

 

5. Marco Hernandez - I had him high pre-season ... and his May was enough for me to not drop him as of now. Yes, there are some concerns, particularly on the discipline front, and some platoon issues. But this is still a kid with plus defensive potential, loads of bat speed, and raw tools that could develop.

 

Another gap

 

6. Ben Wells - Perhaps a bit shocking, and admittedly, my personal bias may factor in (as it's been well known how high I've been on him). But ... he seems to be commanding things better. The breaking ball seems to be more consistent, although whether or not the quality is consistently better, I don't have enough to know about right now. The K rate is up, the BB rate is down. He's still getting a high clip of ground balls.

 

7. Welington Castillo - I don't think he's passed rookie limits just yet. If he has, then forget about it. If he hasn't reached it yet, he's still an upper level, close to ready catcher with some defensive ability and power. I'll tag an eleventh guy on in case I'm mistaken.

 

8. Dillon Maples - Gets some benefit of the doubt, partly because no one else has really stepped forward. Still ... would like to hear about him throwing sooner than later.

 

9. Trey McNutt - I defended him hard last year, but the pitch counts are still high and he ran into blister issues again this year. The consistency of stuff doesn't seem to be there to be a starter.

 

10. Junior Lake - I'm hesitant to raise him up a level (meaning, put him at 6 for me), for now, as I want to see if this newfound discipline can stick. If it does, and if he can still produce offensively, then sure, he's much higher, as the tools have always been there.

 

11. Josh Vitters - Could probably make a case for him at 6. The discipline is marginally improved. Can he finally have an extended hot streak?

 

Let's see, what would go next

 

12. Jeimer Candelario - I contemplated him higher, but some positional uncertainty and the power probably still more projection kicks him down.

 

13. Dae-Eun Rhee - Is this ... 2010? Or is this ... 2011 Rhee, the one that was hot and cold early in the year? Too early to tell, but too early for me to kick him down too far.

 

14. Arismendy Alcantara - Has probably taken Rubi Silva's spot as the breakout guy in the first half. Is this a kid putting it together, learning to be more disciplined (K rate down, BB rate up in May), or is this just another of his hot streak (I recall a hot run for him last year as well, though I have to double-check the numbers)? Could make a case for him a few spots down as well.

 

15. Robert Whitenack - Bad first start aside, he's made it back sooner than expected, and the improved velocity of last year seems to still be there. Could make the case for him a few spots higher ... and maybe even lower ... so this seemed okay.

 

16. Jose Rosario - He's really had a superb May. I'm not sure he's definitely a starter, but there's every reason to be excited and intrigued with his raw stuff.

 

17. Alberto Cabrera - And my faith in Cabrera ... as a pen arm ... is ... sorta paying off. IMO, best late inning pen prospect (that is currently in the pen) in the system.

 

18. Jae-Hoon Ha - There are moments where I just want to bag on him. It's just frustrating sometimes. And then there's moments where I remind myself that it's his age 21 season in AA, that he's shown some ability/potential in CF, and that his BB rate has increased in May, power has increased in May, and K rate has declined a bit in May.

 

19. Dan Vogelbach - Could make a case for him a few spots higher ...

 

20. Gerardo Concepcion - Guess I'll give him a pedigree positioning in the top 20.

 

21. Michael Jensen - A few weeks ago, he would've been far higher for me. He isn't getting as many ground balls in May, and it's a significant enough drop to give me some pause.

 

____

 

That'd be a rough top 20. I'll give it some thoughts later. As I finish, I realize that Adrian Cardenas is probably still prospect eligible, but where do I place him? Probably somewhere in the top 20, but not sure. Will ponder later. I thought about Amaya, but right now, he seems to project like ... Adrian Cardenas ... and I'm not sure that gets him into the top 20 yet. Kyler Burke, Ronald Torreyes, and Rubi Silva were all probably "close". Torreyes' concern is clear as day - I mean, there's enough reasons to think he might turn it around, but you have to hit ... something, and I was never as high on him as others, so dropping him off the top 20 is fine for me. Is Kyler a starter? Is he a power lefty starter? Seems like a lot of gun readings this spring put him more in that 89-92 range. I gave long thought to putting Silva on, but the complete collapse in discipline, as evidenced by the bottoming out of the walk rate, was just too much. Chris Rusin was awfully close as well, but the BB rate has picked up enough to bother me, and BABIP suggests some level of luck so far.

 

Let's see, who else. Beeler was in my top 20 pre-season ... but he hasn't generated a high enough GB rate to "Chien-Ming Wang" his way into the top 20 with a low K rate. Sliding Golden off for now because of the injury. Lost season. I can definitely understand Beliveau as top 20. He was top 20 on my winter list ... but I've never loved putting middle relievers in my top 20. And well, if I can't put Beliveau there, then Antigua (who was 23rd in the winter for me), isn't making it. Kirk/Raley are still a notch below Rusin on my totem pole, as soft-tossing lefties, so I left them off. Francescon, much as I've supported him, still isn't a lock to be a starter, so was tough for me to rationalize him as top 20. Matt Loosen probably enters in the discussion in the 21-30 rank. If he keeps up his velocity and shows well in Tennessee, he could go higher, but he could also slip down a bit if things falter. I can see a case for Rhoderick top 20, but I don't think he's a closer, and as such, it's hard for me, personally, to justify him up there. But sure, I can understand Rhoderick top 20. He's been that good to start the year, and has an outpitch, something too few of the guys in the big league pen have.

 

That said, the gap from 6-30 isn't that wide for me. Just realized Clevenger might still be rookie eligible ... too lazy to check right now.

 

Completely forgot about Concepcion.

 

That's probably way too high for Alcantara as I take a look at it again. But ... I'm not sure who else to slide in there? Maybe Vogelbach on pedigree. Maybe Rosario on potential.

Edited May 30, 2012 by toonsterwu

[jersey cubs fan]

Anthony Rizzo as Adam LaRoche is completely disheartening.

[toonsterwu]

Anthony Rizzo as Adam LaRoche is completely disheartening.

 

Again ... I didn't say I expected that ... I said at the very least ... solid defensive first baseman, good power, solid disciplined approach at the plate. I sure hope I'm wrong, and Rizzo becomes an elite dominant slugger, but LaRoche still seems like a decently middle tier comp, albeit, 20 pounds or so lighter.

[El Duderino]

If Rizzo's floor is 115-120 OPS+ I'd be thrilled.

[toonsterwu]

If Rizzo's floor is 115-120 OPS+ I'd be thrilled.

 

I wouldn't call LaRoche the floor either. I'd call LaRoche a middle-of-the-road comp on what Rizzo might be. People seem to have this negative impression of LaRoche's career. It hasn't been a great career, but he's been a very productive first baseman, whose defensive UZR numbers would look a lot better if it wasn't for the 2005 stats.

[jersey cubs fan]

If Rizzo's floor is 115-120 OPS+ I'd be thrilled.

 

I wouldn't call LaRoche the floor either. I'd call LaRoche a middle-of-the-road comp on what Rizzo might be. People seem to have this negative impression of LaRoche's career. It hasn't been a great career, but he's been a very productive first baseman, whose defensive UZR numbers would look a lot better if it wasn't for the 2005 stats.

 

He has not been a very productive first baseman. He's been a middling one. What has he been, a 1 or 2 WAR player at his best? Lesser organizations trying to patch a hole would live with LaRoche, but he is a guy who as soon as he's on your team you are hoping to find his successor. Rizzo, as the Cubs #1 prospect and the new regime's biggest acquisition to date, panning out as Adam LaRoche, would be a big disappointment.

[davell]

I'd never looked at LaRoche's stat line closely. He's got a career .818 OPS. I'd say that puts him middle of the road for starting 1B. I guess it's just a lot harder to be a high WAR guy at 1B, because everyone produces decently? Looking at his stats I would have guessed him to average around 3 WAR a season or so. But, if he's basically league average at his spot, I can see why it's lower.

[toonsterwu]

I'd never looked at LaRoche's stat line closely. He's got a career .818 OPS. I'd say that puts him middle of the road for starting 1B. I guess it's just a lot harder to be a high WAR guy at 1B, because everyone produces decently? Looking at his stats I would have guessed him to average around 3 WAR a season or so. But, if he's basically league average at his spot, I can see why it's lower.

 

Well, LaRoche is an ... interesting case.

 

Before that, let me note, would I be disappointed if Rizzo became LaRoche-ish? Probably, even though my expectations for him have never been as high as others. I'm simply saying that, as a middle tier comp, I don't think LaRoche is that unrealistic.

 

But in terms of LaRoche's WAR (fangraphs) - early in his career, UZR treated him very poorly, even though, to the best of my recollection, I think he was a better defensive player then than now, when UZR is treating him fairly well. But now that the defensive metrics have come around, he's also running into age. Last year, he was banged up and the offense never got going. Then, there was also the fact that, for awhile, LaRoche was a notorious 2nd half hitter (I think ...) who got off to slow starts, which impacted things.

 

I think he's on pace for a 3 WAR season, but everyone expects him to cool off a bit in the 2nd half, so we'll have to wait and see where he lands on the WAR scale. Anyhow, the comparison wasn't made in respect to whether or not this would be disappointing. It was made in respect to what I think a possible middle-of-the-road comparison might be (and I did say he should be better than LaRoche).

[sneakypower]

i've heard somebody (Goldstein? Badler?) cite Carlos Pena as Rizzo's downside

[pitchcs]

Take out 2009-2011 and LaRoche actually looks pretty good.

[toonsterwu]

i've heard somebody (Goldstein? Badler?) cite Carlos Pena as Rizzo's downside

 

I think that was in a BA blurb, so guessing Badler, but could've been Callis.

[Guest]

I couldn't rate Maples in my top 10, even if he's expected to be ready to pitch next month.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

In his age 22 season, Rizzo is OPSing 1.148 at AAA

 

In his age 22 season, LaRoche OPSed .918 at A+ and .773 at AA.

[toonsterwu]

I couldn't rate Maples in my top 10, even if he's expected to be ready to pitch next month.

 

Really, after 6, I had a tough time figuring it out on the fly (and I imagine some, if not most, would quibble with my 4/5). I've never been as high on Maples as most, so putting him there, with the injury, is probably something I'd change if I sat down and actually made a list, gave it some thought. But ... McNutt sure hasn't shown he can be a starter. Lake and Vitters have to show consistency for me to buy them higher ... the former with his discipline, the latter with his discipline and maintaining production. After that, things are a mess, so provided Maples ceiling isn't impacted by the injury (and so far ... doesn't seem like there's anything to suggest that, but then again ... who knows), I guess I'd still consider him a top 10-12 guy at worst. I mean, from my 12-21 that I slapped together, there isn't anyone pushing their way forward (outside of perhaps Jose Rosario ... more I think about it ... maybe he should be top 10 ... ).

[Guest]

Given that I'd have Lake and Vitters in my top 5-6, my list would look much different.

 

I agree that Rizzo and Baez are 1 & 2. I believe there's a gap between after those guys. I'd put Jackson, Vitters and Lake 3-5 in some order. Then Szczur, Hernandez, Wells, Castillo are probably my next group. It gets really tough after that.

 

Rizzo is the only prospect in the system right now without a big, glaring flaw, though. Baez, Lake + Vitters with discipline. Contact for Lake + Jackson. Inconsistency for pretty much all the pitchers.

[toonsterwu]

In his age 22 season, Rizzo is OPSing 1.148 at AAA

 

In his age 22 season, LaRoche OPSed .918 at A+ and .773 at AA.

 

Thanks. So ... ? Are you telling me that you think it's a lock that Rizzo is going to be better than LaRoche overall, and better than LaRoche at his best? If so, good. That'd be awesome. I just find it hard to think that anything with any prospect is a lock ... particularly when the argument is for a player to become an elite player at his position.

[Guest]

Quick and dirty:

 

1. Anthony Rizzo

2. Javier Baez

3. Brett Jackson

4. Welington Castillo

5. Matt Szczur

6. Junior Lake - yikes - massive drop-off after #5

7. Josh Vitters

8. Jeimer Candelario

9. Marco Hernandez

10. Trey McNutt

11. Dan Vogelbach

12. Dae-Eun Rhee

13. Ben Wells

14. Jae-Hoon Ha

15. Robert Whitenack

16. Dillon Maples

17. Alberto Cabrera

18. Jose Rosario

19. Adrian Cardenas

20. Arismendy Alcantara

 

Not sure what to make of Torreyes' season thus far. You don't realize how wretched the pitching is in this system until you do an exercise like this. If Buxton or Correa don't fall to 6, I really hope one of Gausman or Zimmer does.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

In his age 22 season, Rizzo is OPSing 1.148 at AAA

 

In his age 22 season, LaRoche OPSed .918 at A+ and .773 at AA.

 

Thanks. So ... ? Are you telling me that you think it's a lock that Rizzo is going to be better than LaRoche overall, and better than LaRoche at his best? If so, good. That'd be awesome. I just find it hard to think that anything with any prospect is a lock ... particularly when the argument is for a player to become an elite player at his position.

 

I'm saying it's an odd comp.

[toonsterwu]

In his age 22 season, Rizzo is OPSing 1.148 at AAA

 

In his age 22 season, LaRoche OPSed .918 at A+ and .773 at AA.

 

Thanks. So ... ? Are you telling me that you think it's a lock that Rizzo is going to be better than LaRoche overall, and better than LaRoche at his best? If so, good. That'd be awesome. I just find it hard to think that anything with any prospect is a lock ... particularly when the argument is for a player to become an elite player at his position.

 

I'm saying it's an odd comp.

 

Well, then let's take a look at the major league numbers, then. LaRoche has average .268/.339/.480 with a 9.6% BB rate and 22.3% K rate. If Rizzo's swing issues manifest itself in the majors again, a slightly lower average, something around .260-.270 isn't unrealistic. The BB and K rates look similar to what we might expect out of Rizzo - heck, some think Rizzo may strike out a lot more in the bigs. Power looks fair. 6 out of the last 7 years, LaRoche has posted an above average to good UZR. Now, I have no explanation for his poor UZR numbers to start his career (and I still think that he was a better defensive first baseman when he was younger), but the positive UZR scores in recent years ... that's sort of what we're expecting out of Rizzo, right? Size is similar, well, 20 pounds more for Rizzo.

 

Again ... I said a middle of the road/middle tier comp, and I also said I expected Rizzo to be better than that. I just don't know why this comp seems so odd for people. Would it be disappointing? Sure ... but is it unrealistic?

[toonsterwu]

Quick and dirty:

 

1. Anthony Rizzo

2. Javier Baez

3. Brett Jackson

4. Welington Castillo

5. Matt Szczur

6. Junior Lake - yikes - massive drop-off after #5

7. Josh Vitters

8. Jeimer Candelario

9. Marco Hernandez

10. Trey McNutt

11. Dan Vogelbach

12. Dae-Eun Rhee

13. Ben Wells

14. Jae-Hoon Ha

15. Robert Whitenack

16. Dillon Maples

17. Alberto Cabrera

18. Jose Rosario

19. Adrian Cardenas

20. Arismendy Alcantara

 

Not sure what to make of Torreyes' season thus far. You don't realize how wretched the pitching is in this system until you do an exercise like this. If Buxton or Correa don't fall to 6, I really hope one of Gausman or Zimmer does.

 

I can buy that list. I still have my doubts on Welington as a top tier starter, hence my unwillingness to move him up, and Candelario's long-term future, positionally, is still a question, and his power is still a lot of projection, so I'm wary of going too high on him.

 

As to the pitching, I think one can argue that there isn't really an arm in the system with TOR ability. I'd still make a half-hearted defense on Wells potential, but the improvement in the quality of the breaking ball doesn't seem to be there yet. There's several guys with mid-rotation ceilings (and some guys falling from that list ... I have a hard time buying Struck as a mid-rotation ceiling guy anymore, outside of the hope that he's so young that something can develop, and Beeler is sliding off the mid-rotation ceiling list for me as well), but if we get one guy to develop into a mid-rotation arm, that would be a win.

 

So, we've got a lot of end of the rotation types where you hope one or two breakthrough. What makes it worse is that there aren't a ton of arms that you look at and think ... hey, possible late inning arm. There's Cabrera, Hatley, Zych ... and ? From the "starters that could become late inning pen arms", maybe McNutt/Whitenack/Rosario, off the top (probably a couple others if I pondered it a bit more). So ... our pitching is a lot of end of the rotation arms and potential middle relievers ... woo hoo!

 

To be honest, I really don't mind Max Fried at 6 if they grade him high enough. I still have my lingering doubts on Gausman/Zimmer, although I tend to prefer them over Appel (although if Appel fell to 6, which I don't expect ... I think you sort of have to take him ... depending on the board of course, but if he is at 6, then a lot of other guys have gone ahead).

[jersey cubs fan]

Again ... I said a middle of the road/middle tier comp, and I also said I expected Rizzo to be better than that. I just don't know why this comp seems so odd for people. Would it be disappointing? Sure ... but is it unrealistic?

 

Okay, what the hell is a middle of the road comp then? Sounds to me like "most likely". Nobody is talking about locks. Rizzo could end up worse than LaRoche, that would really suck.

 

LaRoche has not been a very productive 1B and if Rizzo became him it would be very disappointing, so why are people trying to sugarcoat LaRoche's career?

[jersey cubs fan]

Take out 2009-2011 and LaRoche actually looks pretty good.

 

no he doesn't. He was a 1+ WAR 1B in his prime (pre-2009). Nobody cares about that. At his best there had to be a dozen players outperforming him at his position, and his best barely lasted at all. I mean, he wasn't horrible at his best, that's about the nicest thing you could say. And smaller market teams were able to think about using him to fill-in for a season or two at a time. But come on, the guy is a dime a dozen.

[bukie]

So, Rizzo's middle-of-the-road comp is a middle-of-the-road 1B?