NSBB Prospect Rankings

[Rob]

Funny, never hear much positive stuff on the guys who actually hit bombs and EBH. Always hear about lack of walks and poor OBP?

 

As much overrating of walks and lack of plate discipline read in posts, much underrating of power.

 

Who are you referring to, exactly?

 

enough speed to not clog the bases

 

Good runners are a plus. Bad runners who are on base are also a plus.

 

and hit according to positional profile.

 

[expletive] that. I want eight guys that hit like first basemen.

 

A fast, smart runner to leadoff,

 

OBP is more important than speed at the top of the lineup. Even power is more important than speed. Interestingly enough, the lower you get in a lineup the more valuable speed is. It's kinda wasted at the top.

 

a good contact guy 2nd

 

Statistically speaking, most teams would be best served to take their "contact guy" in the 2 hole, move him to the bottom of the lineup, and move everybody else up a spot. Darwin Barneys bat 8 in a good lineup, not 2nd.

 

What will the Cubs do with Rohan and R. Jones who had great offensive seasons?

 

Neither one is much more than an organizational solider. If they're being squeezed by actual prospects, cut them.

 

Everything else you said was either blindingly obvious ("rarely does any player have it all") or completely nonsensical.

[BearClaw]

Rob, thanks, you are an ACE, maybe apply for the GM job after the Theo gig blows up.

 

You lost me at, "cut them"

 

100 years of losing? with that mindset, easy to do!!!!

[CubColtPacer]

Rob, thanks, you are an ACE, maybe apply for the GM job after the Theo gig blows up.

 

You lost me at, "cut them"

 

100 years of losing? with that mindset, easy to do!!!!

 

I have no problem with players who end up playing better than their draft status or prospect status. Sometimes people get lost in the shuffle and sometimes people improve. It happens. But when you have 2 guys who play a position where a ton of offense is expected, have been terrible before this year, are really old for their league, and have some worrying signs in their numbers for this year it doesn't fill you with that much hope. Could Rohan or Jones be the real deal? Of course they could, but the track record for those types of players is not very good. That's the issue here. It's not that these types of players cannot succeed, but history shows they're not very likely to. And when you have something as scarce as playing time especially at a position like first base, there might be better risks to take than to take a risk on them trying to continue those types of numbers.

[Rob]

Rob, thanks, you are an ACE, maybe apply for the GM job after the Theo gig blows up.

 

You lost me at, "cut them"

 

100 years of losing? with that mindset, easy to do!!!!

 

Ignoring the petty sarcasm, they're too old for their leagues, lack any secondary skills or defensive value, and only had acceptable slash stats because their BABIPs were each around .370 for the year (which is not repeatable for Ichiro Suzuki, let alone these two). Their batting averages will probably fall by about .50 points next year (conservatively), and their OBP and SLUG will fall with it.

 

For heaven's sake, Rohan is 25 and spent most of the year in low A. I'm sorry. They may be perfectly nice guys and maybe there's a future in coaching in the organization for these guys. Jones might actually have enough power to play in Japan. But these aren't big league caliber hitters. I know you get close to some of them, but they can't all be the best at what they do.

 

And for the record, rereading my original post I came across as a bit harsh to you. I'd like to apologize on a personal level for that. I'm sorry.

[toonsterwu]

I do mildly wonder about Greg Rohan. Not a lot ... but am mildly curious if he might become a ... Russ Canzler type of useful versatile corner guy in AAA, someone who might, in the right situation, get some call-ups.

[toonsterwu]

I've been putting my thoughts together this weekend and came to the conclusion that I'd like to start my list at #3. I just don't like any of the prospects at this point as #1 in the list. However, I think that I'll be thrilled with the top of the list this time next year.

 

Here are my top guys and the questions I have with them. I still have no idea how I'm going to order things in the end.

 

BJackson - I know I make a bigger deal about contact than most here, but I am quite worried about him putting up 2011 Soto seasons unless he hits for more power than I'm expecting.

 

Szczur - will the power blossom as expected? Will his walk rate rebound from the dip it took at Daytona?

 

Vitters - Can he stay at third? Will he ever beat a 5% walk rate on a regular basis?

 

McNutt - How much was injuries and how much was him being overrated?

 

Rhee - It was a great run at the end of the season, but pretty meh overall. He is far enough away from the surgery that he should be showing more (and more consistently) by now.

 

Baez - Hasn't really proven anything yet.

 

Wells - Wasn't exceptional at Boise this year. Will he develop a real strikeout pitch?

 

I don't know about that comment on Rhee, to be honest. The Cubs restricted him last year. Keep in mind, he didn't really "pass" A ball - he had a good start, got hurt, TJ, and then was restricted last year. If the slider isn't showing improvement next year, then yes, there's cause to be concerned about his future as a rotation option. As of now, though? He's working deep into games and he's showing two plus pitches. And to say it was a great run at the end of the season is somewhat flawed (as it seems to suggest only a few good starts). He was basically solid for the entire 2nd half of the year.

 

As for Wells, it's easy to forget how young he is. I'm not that concerned yet that the breaking ball isn't a plus pitch. Next year, I'd be concerned if it wasn't showing progress.

[Rob]

On a side note, I should have definitely waited until after the AFL and Instructs to do my list. With the AFL he's having, Lake may end up back in my top 5 again. Because I'm friggin nuts.

[toonsterwu]

Honestly, not much about AFL has changed my mind about where I had my list as of now. The only change I might make is to slide Dillon Maples down a slot. I think it's always difficult to read too much into AFL, considering the interesting dynamics that go on there in regards to pitchers.

[BearClaw]

Rob, I can handle criticism about my posts. No need for apologies.

 

I understand the AGE thing, and I also understand the roster thing, only so many spots, and any younger player will leapfrog the elder player if warranted by tools and production.

 

I also understand that a player like Rohan hasn't found a true defensive role, and I truly understand that 1B is the 8th stop defensively, from a profile standpoint.

 

In other words, give us Rohan/R JONES offense in a fleet-flooted CF.

 

Those are rare.

 

HITTING: Get the best offensive production from each and every positional profile.

 

But, back in the day, banjo-hitting SS types saved more runs than they could produce at the plate, same as 2B, that is why a Robbie Alomar is a HOF player, a near corner bat in a position that was a huge bonus.

 

Not many teams can field all 8 positions with that type of offensive production, hence HOF.

 

Overlooked is the continuing transition from the ROID era to normal. In my opinion, we are not normal yet, so what is a good BA, OBP, SLGP, and HR total by position these days?

[Little Slide Rooter]

Guys like Rohan, Jones, and Bour grow up to be Brian LaHair, Micah Hoffpauir, and Jake Fox. They'll probably hit AAA in their late 20's, and maybe get a few cups of coffee.

 

This being said, we really don't have any real prospects as far as 1B goes, depending on what becomes of Vogelbach, so I could see Ridling, Rohan, Bour, and Jones all pushed along. Assuming LaHair is in the big leagues or Japan, Ridling will likely be in AAA. However, if we do sign Fielder or Pujols, they better learn a new position or do well enough that someone takes notice of them when they become Rule 5 eligible.

[toonsterwu]

Guys like Rohan, Jones, and Bour grow up to be Brian LaHair, Micah Hoffpauir, and Jake Fox. They'll probably hit AAA in their late 20's, and maybe get a few cups of coffee.

 

This being said, we really don't have any real prospects as far as 1B goes, depending on what becomes of Vogelbach, so I could see Ridling, Rohan, Bour, and Jones all pushed along. Assuming LaHair is in the big leagues or Japan, Ridling will likely be in AAA. However, if we do sign Fielder or Pujols, they better learn a new position or do well enough that someone takes notice of them when they become Rule 5 eligible.

 

Ridling can play a decent OF. Bour and Jones are the ones that are a bit limited. Rohan can dabble at 3rd, play some corner OF, and obviously, handle first.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Guys like Rohan, Jones, and Bour grow up to be Brian LaHair, Micah Hoffpauir, and Jake Fox. They'll probably hit AAA in their late 20's, and maybe get a few cups of coffee.

 

This being said, we really don't have any real prospects as far as 1B goes, depending on what becomes of Vogelbach, so I could see Ridling, Rohan, Bour, and Jones all pushed along. Assuming LaHair is in the big leagues or Japan, Ridling will likely be in AAA. However, if we do sign Fielder or Pujols, they better learn a new position or do well enough that someone takes notice of them when they become Rule 5 eligible.

 

Ridling can play a decent OF. Bour and Jones are the ones that are a bit limited. Rohan can dabble at 3rd, play some corner OF, and obviously, handle first.

 

Rohan is also very old for his level and has a high OPS but the power isn't where it needs to be in order to succeed with his skill set. Maybe he'll be like LaHair and deveolop it later on.

[toonsterwu]

I'm not suggesting those guys will be good btw. Was simply responding to your post. I do wonder if Rohan can be a Russ Canzler solid, versatile upper level guy who, in the right situation, could get some look sees at the big league level.

[Rob]

I'm not suggesting those guys will be good btw. Was simply responding to your post. I do wonder if Rohan can be a Russ Canzler solid, versatile upper level guy who, in the right situation, could get some look sees at the big league level.

 

Canzler is exactly one month older than Rohan.

[Outshined_One]

Honestly, not much about AFL has changed my mind about where I had my list as of now.

 

I'm tempted to slide Lake back into my Top 20 thanks to his run in the AFL, but that's about it.

[toonsterwu]

Honestly, not much about AFL has changed my mind about where I had my list as of now.

 

I'm tempted to slide Lake back into my Top 20 thanks to his run in the AFL, but that's about it.

 

Oh, I had Lake back inside my top 20 after the last go-around I did on it. I might slide him up a couple more notches. Every once in awhile, I get in a "I'm going to defend Junior Lake mood". Not as strong as Tim, but he does have a lot going for him. Tools wise, still one of the best packages in the system. He can hit a good fastball. Interesting how he was thought of as having little chance of sticking at short when in Arizona, but now, more people seem to think he can.

 

Problem is, he can't hit a breaking ball. Can he correct it? Here's hoping, but he's got to show it first to move back ranking lists. On tools alone, he's still a top 10, if not higher, guy in this system.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Don't know if anyone has seen this, but some more reason to be optimistic on Josh Vitters:

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/10/14/2490086/we-were-prospects-once-and-young

 

His basic conclusion is that, for hitters anyway, age-relative-to-competition is even more important than we previously believed, at least when looking at the projected value of draft picks.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15295#commentMessage

 

This is, all modesty aside, quite possibly the most impressive and significant finding of my career. When it comes to the drafting of high school hitters, even slight differences in age matter. At least when it comes to high school hitters, young draft picks are a MASSIVE market inefficiency.

 

In The 1985 Bill James Abstract, James published the results of his study which showed that "The rate of return on players drafted out of college is essentially twice that of high school players." That is considered to be one of James' most important findings, and in fact it was more than a little surprising when, in 2005, I found that the advantage for college players had almost disappeared over the years.

 

As most of us probably know...Vitters was drafted as a 17 year old, and has been young for every league he's played in so far...That'll end if he opens next year in AA, but just further reason I refuse to believe he's a bust in the making.

[Serge]

Don't know if anyone has seen this, but some more reason to be optimistic on Josh Vitters:

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/10/14/2490086/we-were-prospects-once-and-young

 

His basic conclusion is that, for hitters anyway, age-relative-to-competition is even more important than we previously believed, at least when looking at the projected value of draft picks.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15295#commentMessage

 

This is, all modesty aside, quite possibly the most impressive and significant finding of my career. When it comes to the drafting of high school hitters, even slight differences in age matter. At least when it comes to high school hitters, young draft picks are a MASSIVE market inefficiency.

 

In The 1985 Bill James Abstract, James published the results of his study which showed that "The rate of return on players drafted out of college is essentially twice that of high school players." That is considered to be one of James' most important findings, and in fact it was more than a little surprising when, in 2005, I found that the advantage for college players had almost disappeared over the years.

 

As most of us probably know...Vitters was drafted as a 17 year old, and has been young for every league he's played in so far...That'll end if he opens next year in AA, but just further reason I refuse to believe he's a bust in the making.

 

I saw that too and it is interesting, but I don't think it has much bearing on Vitters at this point. If you want to use it to go back and say the Cubs made the rate call drafting him, that works, but I think at this point he is what he is. He's a high-upside but flawed player who did pretty well while young for his league. Despite what some people would say he's still a good prospect, but some of the shine is off the apple and rightly so.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

I saw that too and it is interesting, but I don't think it has much bearing on Vitters at this point. If you want to use it to go back and say the Cubs made the rate call drafting him, that works, but I think at this point he is what he is. He's a high-upside but flawed player who did pretty well while young for his league. Despite what some people would say he's still a good prospect, but some of the shine is off the apple and rightly so.

 

While I agree that some of the shine should be off the apple and rightly so, I also think there's plenty of signs that say he's more likely than not to be productive so long as he stays healthy.

 

The bearing that is there is that the study is about how it's a very good thing to be very young as a prospect. That's been Vitters, who still shows all the skills we want to see except for BB totals.

[TruffleShuffle]

and the ability to play not-terrible defense.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

and the ability to play not-terrible defense.

 

Meh. Too many good hitters get their D crapped on in the minors for me to worry too much...I'd rather they figure it out after his bat develops. A little 3B, a little LF, and a little 1B until one of them fits.

[TruffleShuffle]

and the ability to play not-terrible defense.

 

Meh. Too many good hitters get their D crapped on in the minors for me to worry too much...I'd rather they figure it out after his bat develops. A little 3B, a little LF, and a little 1B until one of them fits.

 

he's not really a good hitter, and basically scouts are universal in panning his defensive ability. if he's going to give back 15 or 20 runs playing 3b, then you need to worry about it now. that raises the bar quite a bit for what kind of hitter he needs to be to be a positive contributor. even if he can be a league-average defender at 1b or lf, those positions need to hit and get on base at a significantly better rate than he's doing right now.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

he's not really a good hitter, and basically scouts are universal in panning his defensive ability. if he's going to give back 15 or 20 runs playing 3b, then you need to worry about it now. that raises the bar quite a bit for what kind of hitter he needs to be to be a positive contributor. even if he can be a league-average defender at 1b or lf, those positions need to hit and get on base at a significantly better rate than he's doing right now.

 

See the thing with him is that the word "yet" still (barely) stands. He was fine in AA this year as a hitter, and excellent at times. If he was getting overmatched then sure, but the flaws with him as a hitter are flaws that can not be permanent one way or another. He can hit a fastball and he's not one of those guys who gets exposed by breaking balls in the dirt unless it's well set up, and he's doing it at a younger age than his competition. I'm putting alot of value on that

 

That's why they should just let the bat play out and then worry about position. While his bat is developing I'd keep him at the hardest defensive position he feels comfortable at without bothering his bat, which his 3B. There's been plenty of cases of guys suddenly becoming OK defenders when they can hit. It took damn near a billion surgeries to get them to move Troy Glaus off of 3B.

[toonsterwu]

Anyhow, I decided to "finalize" my temporarily final rankings, considering the calendar has turned and spring will be here sooner than later. I posted on Sickels, so I ended up tagging in grades.

 

1. Brett Jackson, B+.

 

2. Anthony Rizzo, B+. I'm just not buying that Rizzo is a substantially better bat than BJax, and if it's close, I think BJax as a CF gives better value.

 

3. Javier Baez, B+.

 

4. Marco Hernandez, B.

 

5. Matt Szczur, B-.

 

6. Kenneth "Trey" McNutt, B-.

 

7. Dae-Eun Rhee, B-.

 

8. Dillon Maples, B-.

 

9. Welington Castillo, B-.

 

10. Ben Wells, C+.

 

11.Josh Vitters, C+.

 

12.Jae-Hoon Ha, C+.

 

13.Reggie Golden, C+.

 

14.Dallas Beeler, C+.

 

15.Zack Cates, C+. Think I'm starting him here for now, but have to ponder more.

 

16.Robert Whitenack, C+.*

 

17.Dan Vogelbach, C+.

 

18.Jeimer Candelario, C+.

 

19.Rafael Dolis, C+.

 

20.Junior Lake, C+.

 

21.Jeffrey Beliveau, C+.

 

22.Ronald Torreyes, C+.

 

23.Nick Struck, C+.

 

24.Chris Carpenter, C+.

 

25.Jeffry Antigua, C+.

 

26.Gioskar Amaya, C.

 

27.Dave Sappelt, C.

 

28.Alberto Cabrera, C.

 

29.Ezekiel DeVoss, C.

 

30.Jose Rosario, C.

 

_____

two who fell off

 

29.Luis Liria, C.

 

30.Tony Zych, C.

 

* Edited my list for Cates/Rizzo.

Edited January 6, 2012 by toonsterwu

[Guest]

At this point, I'm waiting to see what happens with Garza before I come near finalizing my list.