NSBB Prospect Rankings

[Tryptamine]

I realize he's struggled this year, but people are completely leaving him off their top 20's? That seems to be a excessive to me.

[Guest]

I realize he's struggled this year, but people are completely leaving him off their top 20's? That seems to be a excessive to me.

 

Simpson?

[Tryptamine]

I realize he's struggled this year, but people are completely leaving him off their top 20's? That seems to be a excessive to me.

 

Simpson?

 

Oops I forgot to even mention who I was talking about. I meant Jay Jackson.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I realize he's struggled this year, but people are completely leaving him off their top 20's? That seems to be a excessive to me.

 

Simpson?

 

Oops I forgot to even mention who I was talking about. I meant Jay Jackson.

 

Hes more than struggling.

[Guest]

The system really has transformed to the point where there is much more excitement and depth with the hitters. There are some intriguing possibilities with the pitchers down in the lower minors, but I could see as much as 2/3 of the top 20 players in the system being hitters if we sign our primary targets from the draft.

 

The top players in the system are even more skewed to hitters. McNutt is really the only pitcher that has a chance to crack the top 5. With the injury to Whitenack, he might be the only pitcher in the top 10 right now.

[toonsterwu]

2/3rd? Right now, my top 20 hitters are Castillo, Jackson, Flaherty, Vitters, Bour, Ha, Szczur, Golden, LeMahieu. It's possible that Castillo/LeMahieu won't be eligible by season's end (I guess it comes down to if you are doing a list that takes service days into consideration, b/c at last check, Castillo was around 20 or so service days away and LeMahieu was about 23 days away. If we take the last draft into consideration, I'd pop in Baez and Vogelbach, assuming they sign, but that puts us at 11, and I really think that one of DJ or Welington will end up losing rookie status, if not before the trade deadline, then in August.

 

This isn't meant to pump up our pitching situation, either, as it's really thin up top, but I'm hard pressed, as of now, to come up with more than 12 hitters to buy in a top 20. Lake isn't consistent enough offensively, Gonzalez is a minor league super-util guy (which isn't a bad thing, but what position do you project him to to justify top 20), Spencer doesn't have enough upside unless the bat takes a gigantic step forward, I'm not sold on Flores' SSS in AA as anything more than a fluke as of now, Gibbs/Clevenger both don't seem to have the upside (Clevenger might be a close call for me if I sat around and pondered it, steady defensively and above average offense for position), Cerda doesn't have enough power for me to go top 20, and Watkins has to show consistency for me to buy that this stretch is a sign of things to come.

 

I end up with some pen arms in our top 20, which I don't really like doing, but I'm hard pressed to justify one of those above guys as top 20, and who else is there?

[Guest]

but I could see as much as 2/3 of the top 20 players in the system being hitters if we sign our primary targets from the draft.

[toonsterwu]

You didn't read my post.

 

I included the draftees. That gets me to 11 (Baez and Vogelbach to go with Vitters, Jackson, LeMahieu, Castillo, Ha, Bour, Flaherty, Golden, Szczur), and that's only if we assume that there will be no graduations, and if we're going to factor in draftees, we also have to factor in potential graduations, particularly since it seems so likely to happen this year. Certainly, 11 would be 55%, close enough to 2/3rd, but if LeMahieu/Castillo graduate from rookie eligibility (and I strongly suspect 1, if not both, will), that could push my list to 9 (45%), depending on how the rest of the season goes.

 

I guess my point was that, no matter what, I see the top 20 of the system as around 50/50 on pitchers, so I was curious who you had in there. I've got a hard time buying another draftee besides the top 2 from making it, but maybe you like one of them enough. Or are you putting in guys from that 2nd crop of guys (the 2nd paragraph of my post), or are you putting in someone else?

[Guest]

You didn't read my post.

 

I included the draftees. That gets me to 11 (Baez and Vogelbach to go with Vitters, Jackson, LeMahieu, Castillo, Ha, Bour, Flaherty, Golden, Szczur), and that's only if we assume that there will be no graduations, and if we're going to factor in draftees, we also have to factor in potential graduations, particularly since it seems so likely to happen this year. Certainly, 11 would be 55%, close enough to 2/3rd, but if LeMahieu/Castillo graduate from rookie eligibility (and I strongly suspect 1, if not both, will), that could push my list to 9 (45%), depending on how the rest of the season goes.

 

I guess my point was that, no matter what, I see the top 20 of the system as around 50/50 on pitchers, so I was curious who you had in there. I've got a hard time buying another draftee besides the top 2 from making it, but maybe you like one of them enough. Or are you putting in guys from that 2nd crop of guys (the 2nd paragraph of my post), or are you putting in someone else?

I guess I hadn't thought through the second half of the list nearly as much as the top 10. But I'll probably have 8 of my top 10 as hitters at this point, so I guess I made a leap to say 66% of the top 20. I don't have the names for you, though. I just hate putting relief only prospects in my top 20 unless they are phenomenal. Do we really have that many good SP prospects to fill out the top 20?

[TruffleShuffle]

I just hate putting relief only prospects in my top 20 unless they are phenomenal.

 

i don't understand this. if you were to go back 5 or 10 years from now and rank current cub prospects by major league WAR (to evaluate which guys were most successful), there's a strong chance that at least one or two of the top 20 is currently pitching in relief in the minor leagues.

[SouthSideRyan]

I just hate putting relief only prospects in my top 20 unless they are phenomenal.

 

i don't understand this. if you were to go back 5 or 10 years from now and rank current cub prospects by major league WAR (to evaluate which guys were most successful), there's a strong chance that at least one or two of the top 20 is currently pitching in relief in the minor leagues.

 

Marmol and Marshall weren't relief prospects. If you choose to highly value peak/ceiling, there's nothing wrong with avoiding relief prospects.

[TruffleShuffle]

I just hate putting relief only prospects in my top 20 unless they are phenomenal.

 

i don't understand this. if you were to go back 5 or 10 years from now and rank current cub prospects by major league WAR (to evaluate which guys were most successful), there's a strong chance that at least one or two of the top 20 is currently pitching in relief in the minor leagues.

 

Marmol and Marshall weren't relief prospects. If you choose to highly value peak/ceiling, there's nothing wrong with avoiding relief prospects.

 

well yeah if you look at the cubs' roster you'd think that no minor league relievers turn out to be valuable. craig kimbrel was always a reliever and has already been worth 1.5 wins and jordan walden always profiled as a reliever, shifted there last year and has been worth 1.3 wins. i'd rather have a good relief prospect than a guy who 5% of the time will become a regular mlb player and 95% of the time will be a bust.

[SouthSideRyan]

And Kimbrel's minor league #s would be considered "phenomenal" Why was Walden always going to be a reliever?

[TruffleShuffle]

because his fastball velocity was always inconsistent and he didn't maintain it well deep into games, and his secondary pitches were never very good. he was from the jose ceda/rafael dolis school of starting pitching.

[SouthSideRyan]

I'd say his future in the pen had a lot more to do with his injuries in '09 than any projections going forward.

[toonsterwu]

You didn't read my post.

 

I included the draftees. That gets me to 11 (Baez and Vogelbach to go with Vitters, Jackson, LeMahieu, Castillo, Ha, Bour, Flaherty, Golden, Szczur), and that's only if we assume that there will be no graduations, and if we're going to factor in draftees, we also have to factor in potential graduations, particularly since it seems so likely to happen this year. Certainly, 11 would be 55%, close enough to 2/3rd, but if LeMahieu/Castillo graduate from rookie eligibility (and I strongly suspect 1, if not both, will), that could push my list to 9 (45%), depending on how the rest of the season goes.

 

I guess my point was that, no matter what, I see the top 20 of the system as around 50/50 on pitchers, so I was curious who you had in there. I've got a hard time buying another draftee besides the top 2 from making it, but maybe you like one of them enough. Or are you putting in guys from that 2nd crop of guys (the 2nd paragraph of my post), or are you putting in someone else?

I guess I hadn't thought through the second half of the list nearly as much as the top 10. But I'll probably have 8 of my top 10 as hitters at this point, so I guess I made a leap to say 66% of the top 20. I don't have the names for you, though. I just hate putting relief only prospects in my top 20 unless they are phenomenal. Do we really have that many good SP prospects to fill out the top 20?

 

As of now, I think a couple of the Boise kids would slide into my top 20 due to upside (and I'm bullish enough on Ben Wells that I would probably slide him much higher than most - I'm still thinking he'll slot into the back of my top 10). I'll probably keep Whitenack in the 11-20 range on account of the increased velo and great work. I haven't really pondered it all that deeply the last few weeks or so.

 

As a side note, if Logan Watkins bat has really turned around ... that said, I've still got a tough time buying top 20 on him, but let's see how it plays out.

[Guest]

After listening to his first 2 games, I think Ben Wells will end up in my top 10 by the end of the season.

[nick23]

2/3rd? Right now, my top 20 hitters are Castillo, Jackson, Flaherty, Vitters, Bour, Ha, Szczur, Golden, LeMahieu. It's possible that Castillo/LeMahieu won't be eligible by season's end (I guess it comes down to if you are doing a list that takes service days into consideration, b/c at last check, Castillo was around 20 or so service days away and LeMahieu was about 23 days away. If we take the last draft into consideration, I'd pop in Baez and Vogelbach, assuming they sign, but that puts us at 11, and I really think that one of DJ or Welington will end up losing rookie status, if not before the trade deadline, then in August.

 

This isn't meant to pump up our pitching situation, either, as it's really thin up top, but I'm hard pressed, as of now, to come up with more than 12 hitters to buy in a top 20. Lake isn't consistent enough offensively, Gonzalez is a minor league super-util guy (which isn't a bad thing, but what position do you project him to to justify top 20), Spencer doesn't have enough upside unless the bat takes a gigantic step forward, I'm not sold on Flores' SSS in AA as anything more than a fluke as of now, Gibbs/Clevenger both don't seem to have the upside (Clevenger might be a close call for me if I sat around and pondered it, steady defensively and above average offense for position), Cerda doesn't have enough power for me to go top 20, and Watkins has to show consistency for me to buy that this stretch is a sign of things to come.

 

I end up with some pen arms in our top 20, which I don't really like doing, but I'm hard pressed to justify one of those above guys as top 20, and who else is there?

Based purely on upside, I'd add Dunston Jr. to the top 20 if we're able to sign him. I've seen several places mention he'll likely be a 1st round pick if he decides to go to Vandy.

[toonsterwu]

Was trying to hammer out a list since we are nearing the ASB, and this is what I have as of now (I'll note where I'd put in some 2011 additions). Just a quick effort.

 

1. Brett Jackson. Is Szczur a better talent? Yes. Is his talent enough to compensate for the difference in readiness? Debatable. I might change my mind by season's end (and maybe change my mind an hour from now), as Szczur's approach is solid, and while I've always thought Jackson's ceiling was under-rated, few guys reach their ceilings and he's definitely been inconsistent this year after a hot start, and the K issue has become more glaring. As of now, looks like a better Drew Stubbs, which isn't bad, but far from what some hopes were at the end of 2010. I do wonder if it's in Brett Jackson's best interest for a CF like Szczur to move fast, forcing Jackson to a corner where he could bulk up a bit and focus on developing his power stroke.

 

2. Matt Szczur. It all comes down to how much power he develops. If he can become a 10-15 HR guy (if not better), then he's a very good prospect. If not, he's still a solid prospect. He's still raw enough that hope/potential is certainly a factor in his development, and he's shown a very solid approach this year for a fairly raw collegiate bat. I wonder how much time he's going to spend in Daytona. Nothing to base it on, just wonder if he might be in Tennessee sooner than later.

 

3. Trey McNutt. It's certainly been a disappointing year for our upper level pitching, McNutt included. Injuries have hurt his development, but while he hasn't been overmatched in AA (and has held his own), I do wonder if more time in the A ball ranks would've helped with his curve/change consistency. I really wouldn't mind seeing him spend the entire year in AA, and perhaps start 2012 in AA. There should be no rush for a rebuilding club.

 

________

 

After the top 3, things are a crapshoot. For now, I'm thinking

 

4. Reggie Golden. This is more default, as I have a tough time putting Vitters here, and I'm not sure Flaherty merits it. Ha's offense collapse makes it hard for me to turn to him here. Furthermore, despite the spring weight concerns, Golden has been, as of now, showing quite well in Boise, and his bat/approach seems better than anticipated. Add in his big time ceiling, and eh.

 

5. Ryan Flaherty. Is Vitters/Ha ceiling higher? Sure. Flaherty's showing legit corner power, though, and I feel much more comfortable about his chances of success in the bigs. So I guess this is my floor nod in this run-through.

 

* Javier Baez - I think, as of now, I'd slot Baez somewhere here. I know some will push him up higher, but I've always been a bit hesitant to do that this quick. Tis me. This, of course, assumes he signs.

 

6. Jae-Hoon Ha. I could go either way with Ha/Vitters. On the one hand, Vitters bat had a nice run at a higher level while Ha's was slumping. On the other hand, Ha plays a premium position well. Let's see if he can finish strong offensively.

 

7. Josh Vitters. He's scuffled a bit since coming back from the beaning. Prior to that, his bat was showing some flickering signs of life. Still doesn't generate enough power production in games, due to his approach.

 

8. DJ LeMahieu. I could put him higher. The idiotic promotion really bothered me. Will be curious about his bat in the PCL. Still prospect eligible, although that could change by season's end.

 

9. Welington Castillo Had a nice run in June with the bat. Let's see if he can follow it up. For now, though, despite guys with higher ceilings, he's at a key position and is close to ready, while still raw enough that you could see some room for development.

 

10. Nick Struck. Was toying with the idea of personal favorite Ben Wells here, but Struck, while not having Wells ceiling, is further along and has a good enough ceiling. Of course, the Cubs have rushed him up like crazy.

 

11. Ben Wells. Struggled in two of five outings in Boise so far, but has the ceiling to really be special if he develops right. Is getting his ground balls, and as he develops his secondary offerings, should improve his K's.

 

12. Robert Whitenack. Had he continued to show well, he would've been a top 5 guy. Injuries knock him down. Could see a case of dropping him further, but this seems fair for now, as we wait to see his recovery process and if his fastball still shows that well.

 

13. Dallas Beeler. Another guy that we've really rushed up the ladder. That said, ceiling's good enough and performance in Low A was solid enough that I can slot him here. I'm not going to hold his AA struggles so far against him when he shouldn't be at this level.

___________

 

This sort of feels like another line in the system for me. The difference between Golden/Beeler isn't that much for me right now. The upper level guys left on the board don't have huge ceilings, and the lower level guys upside guys are too raw and without the elite ceiling of a Wells/Golden for me to push them higher. Then, there's these two, who I could move up a few spots depending on how I feel ... if they sign.

 

* Dillon Maples - If we somehow sign Maples, I think my initial inclination would be to slot him somewhere in the teens, and in this run-through, this seems somewhat appropriate. He did make BA's First Team HS All-American list.

 

* Dan Vogelbach. I think I would slot him here if he signed.

 

Wow, this is difficult for me to come up with who I would put at 14th, and it certainly isn't a positive difficult.

 

14. Dae-Eun Rhee. I'm honestly scratching for a guy here. He's shown enough flashes that I'll be curious if he's better with more time away from surgery. Still, the inconsistencies make slotting him here bothersome for me.

 

15. Kevin Rhoderick. I'm not a fan of putting pure pen arms, unless they have elite closing potential, in the top 20, so this one bothers me tremendously, but ... who? Carpenter's control struggles in the minors, along with his big league control problems, is bothersome. Dolis has a bigger fastball, but honestly, I like Rhoderick's fastball life and his slider seems better than Dolis'. Are the young arms good enough yet to jump them this high? Seems debatable to me.

 

16. Rafael Dolis. I don't know why I keep thinking Francis Beltran. Just not sold that Dolis is a late inning arm. Perhaps a power middle reliever.

 

17. Aaron Kurcz. I'm still somewhat tempted to slide Kurcz ahead a bit more. He's really been strong since the pen move.

 

18. Zach Rosscup. Was tempted to go with Kirk, but I'm not sure what the justification would be, and Rosscup has a better fastball (barely).

 

19. Austin Kirk. If his stuff got a bit better, I'd run him up the list. But a flyball guy with fringy stuff is more of a back of the rotation/pen profile. I mean, I could make the case that Raley's solid two months deserves to go ahead of him.

 

20. Hayden Simpson. I'll give him a mini-mulligan, but I'm starting to think that those who have wondered whether he had some arm concerns may be right.

 

Contemplated:

 

Ridling/Bour - I'm a bit stunned that I slid Bour out of the top 20, but both of these guys have seen their power production keep sliding. Ridling has shown some mini-signs of life and has more potential to be utilized around the field (corner outfield). Could slot them into the 16-20 area.

Raley - ceiling just isn't good enough, but could slot him in the back end depending on how things go.

Gaub - A LOOGY. Perhaps a good one, assuming he doesn't break down again, but still, a LOOGY.

Beliveau - A super LOOGY perhaps, but a LOOGY nonetheless. I think I might take Beliveau over Gaub on a list, but still.

Lake - Really should've kept him in A+. The bat's a mess in AA.

Clevenger/Gibbs/Flores - Backup Backstop profiles push them down.

Marwin Gonzalez - Really like him and really intrigued, but have to hear more about his defense at short to ponder top 20.

Carpenter - Even his control in the bigs has been bad.

Cerda/Watkins - Not enough power and too far away to warrant top 20 for now.

Peralta/Cruz/Reed/Liria (and to a lesser extent, Wang, but the first four have significantly higher ceilings) - I really want to see a lot more.

Chen/Geiger/Darvill - Too far away.

Del Valle - To be fair, don't know enough to feel comfortable, particularly when he is far away.

DSL Kids - Way too far. Sure, Candelario and Penalver sounds great. But way too far away.

Batista/Hatley/Suarez - Possible late inning arms have to really dominate for me to turn to them in a top 20.

 

Anyhow, a quick effort. From 15 and on, I could put a lot of guys into the mix (Reed/Peralta/Cruz/Liria/Bour/Raley/Believau/Gaub/Clevenger/Carpenter - guess that takes me to 30, but that's not in order).

 

* I just realized I went all pitching from 11-20. That wasn't intentional. Simpson has been so bad that if I didn't grant a mulligan, he'd be easily out of the top 20, but I feel like my next guy up might be an arm over, say, Bour. I think I'd lean Liria, although Peralta and Cruz may be viewed as having better ceilings, but I do feel like Liria is a bit more polished than both.

 

** I'm also thinking that the gap from 15 to say, 35 isn't that big in our system. That's either a positive or a negative, depending on how one views the raw talent in the lower levels.

Edited July 8, 2011 by toonsterwu

[SouthSideRyan]

Didn't even contemplate Jay Jackson?

[jersey cubs fan]

4. Reggie Golden. This is more default, as I have a tough time putting Vitters here, and I'm not sure Flaherty merits it. Ha's offense collapse makes it hard for me to turn to him here. Furthermore, despite the spring weight concerns, Golden has been, as of now, showing quite well in Boise, and his bat/approach seems better than anticipated. Add in his big time ceiling, and eh.

 

* Javier Baez - I think, as of now, I'd slot Baez somewhere here. I know some will push him up higher, but I've always been a bit hesitant to do that this quick. Tis me. This, of course, assumes he signs.

 

Interesting reasoning here, bumping Golden so high despite only 100 professional PA, then holding Baez down because you don't want to bump him too quickly. Low A numbers are very difficult to judge.

[toonsterwu]

Didn't even contemplate Jay Jackson?

 

He didn't really cross my mind. If I sat down and thought about it longer, I think Jay and Alberto Cabrera could both slot into a top 50 or so, so maybe they should've crossed my mind (particularly if both move to the pen, where their fastballs would be bigger weapons), but they really didn't cross my mind as a top 20 possibility (not saying all those guys really did, but those names did cross my mind, however briefly).

[toonsterwu]

4. Reggie Golden. This is more default, as I have a tough time putting Vitters here, and I'm not sure Flaherty merits it. Ha's offense collapse makes it hard for me to turn to him here. Furthermore, despite the spring weight concerns, Golden has been, as of now, showing quite well in Boise, and his bat/approach seems better than anticipated. Add in his big time ceiling, and eh.

 

* Javier Baez - I think, as of now, I'd slot Baez somewhere here. I know some will push him up higher, but I've always been a bit hesitant to do that this quick. Tis me. This, of course, assumes he signs.

 

Interesting reasoning here, bumping Golden so high despite only 100 professional PA, then holding Baez down because you don't want to bump him too quickly. Low A numbers are very difficult to judge.

 

Fair enough. Again, I did this in about 30 minutes. Not exactly the strongest reasoning behind each pick. Although, I guess if I was to defend it right now, I'd argue better power ceiling would be one factor why I would keep Golden ahead of Baez. Now, if one thought Baez could stay in the MI, that would change things.

 

Like I noted, though, gap between 4 and 13 isn't huge in my mind.

 

If someone argued Baez/Golden higher, I could buy it. And as a side note, this isn't some sort of bias against Baez, as I was very much on-board with the pick (my top positional guy on the board, and my 4th option at that point, so it was fine).

[Guest]

I have the same problem with a logjam of relievers around the 15-25 range. Also tough to weigh the high ceiling, low-level Latin arms but I tend to normally give the high ceiling young guys the benefit of the doubt when you get to around 15.

 

I have no problem slotting Baez after Szczur and Jackson.

[fiver]

so..when does Dolis sniff the majors?