NSBB Prospect Rankings

[Guest]

Also, to add to the discussion, I have a question for everyone here.

 

Realistically speaking, which players in this system could you see as being a #1 prospect in this system down the road?

 

Setting aside Brett Jackson (who seems to be the consensus #1), I came up with five players.

 

1) Matt Szczur

2) Javier Baez

3) Jeimer Candelario

4) Dillon Maples

5) Marco Hernandez

 

I'm curious to see what everyone else thinks. To me, those five all seem to have the combination of polish, hype, and upside that would merit them being ranked as the #1 player in the Cubs' system down the line, should things proceed as hoped.

Vogelbach could have a 30+ hr season in the minors with good patience and be #1 in a flash.

 

A number of the young high-upside pitchers could put things together and end up #1 quickly. I'll throw Wells out there to represent the group.

 

BTW - Vitters could go nuts in the PCL next year, though if he does he'll likely get a promotion at some point and not be eligible.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

BTW - Vitters could go nuts in the PCL next year, though if he does he'll likely get a promotion at some point and not be eligible.

 

Yes. Vitters and I'll throw in Junior Lake aren't putting up breakout numbers right now, but the talent and solid numbers are there to imagine an explosion next year. They could absolutely thrive in the PCL.

[toonsterwu]

Also, to add to the discussion, I have a question for everyone here.

 

Realistically speaking, which players in this system could you see as being a #1 prospect in this system down the road?

 

Setting aside Brett Jackson (who seems to be the consensus #1), I came up with five players.

 

1) Matt Szczur

2) Javier Baez

3) Jeimer Candelario

4) Dillon Maples

5) Marco Hernandez

 

I'm curious to see what everyone else thinks. To me, those five all seem to have the combination of polish, hype, and upside that would merit them being ranked as the #1 player in the Cubs' system down the line, should things proceed as hoped.

 

A couple other guys I wouldn't rule out -

 

a) Carlos Penalver - Only have the reports to base it on, but he certainly seems to have enough offensive potential that if he develops, it's something to consider. Feels like in Marco/Carlos we may have something akin to Starlin/Hak-ju again.

 

b) Ben Wells - I'm disappointed he hasn't been better, but to me, he still has TOR potential. Is it possible that he becomes more a innings eater type (assuming he develops), a MOR type? Sure. That said, big, healthy kid, solid enough mechanically, good natural sinking action on his fastball, and secondary stuff, while raw, has flashed above average potential. Maybe he doesn't put it together, but the possibility is there. IMO, even with Maples, I think Wells' ceiling is still higher (and Maples arm action bothers me enough to think he might never be that ACE type upside that people hope for)

 

Actually, Reggie Golden probably is a possibility. The power potential is still there, he's shown a better approach at the plate than expected, so if he cuts down the K's, he could be that slugging corner OF prospect.

[Little Slide Rooter]

While I'm as intrigued by Vogelbach as the next guy, is there any kind of line separating him from Justin Bour and Richard Jones? Does he have any kind of plate discipline?

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

While I'm as intrigued by Vogelbach as the next guy, is there any kind of line separating him from Justin Bour and Richard Jones? Does he have any kind of plate discipline?

 

The line is age. I'm also sure he's also just plain more highly thought of than either of those guys in their draft year.

 

I think his swing potentially offers him excellent plate coverage which might lead to decent plate discipline, but that's me assuming alot and should be taken with a grain of salt. That said, I'm confident that his approach is a solid one for an 18 year old.

 

Just to throw it out here...a draft pick we'll hear of within the next two years is Trey Martin. Big (6'2, ~180 lb) HS OF with plenty of tools and athleticism. I think Callis mentioned him, but he's a name that caught me on draft day. At the least I'll track him until I don't.

[SouthSideRyan]

While I'm as intrigued by Vogelbach as the next guy, is there any kind of line separating him from Justin Bour and Richard Jones? Does he have any kind of plate discipline?

 

No, they're the exact same level of prospect.

[Guest]

While I'm as intrigued by Vogelbach as the next guy, is there any kind of line separating him from Justin Bour and Richard Jones? Does he have any kind of plate discipline?

 

Because Jones and Bour are thought of as real prospects who lack plate discipline. Think about what you're saying for a second. Or read any of the reports on Vogelbach. Or both.

[TruffleShuffle]

I'm as intrigued by maples as the next guy, but is there really any difference between him and jr mathes?

[Guest]

Assuming Vitters and McNutt graduate before they're able to achieve #1 status, I'd suggest a few guys besides the ones Outshined_One had (some of whom have been mentioned):

 

Vogelbach

Wells

Jae-Hoon Ha

Golden

 

And if you want to go really obscure, Luis Enrique Acosta and Mark Malave.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Is there any room for Pin Chieh Chen or Zeke Devoss to squeeze into the top 30?

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Is there any room for Pin Chieh Chen or Zeke Devoss to squeeze into the top 30?

 

A hearty yes to both.

[toonsterwu]

Is there any room for Pin Chieh Chen or Zeke Devoss to squeeze into the top 30?

 

A fair case can be made for both inside the top 30. I'm not sure if I'll have either, but legitimately, the guys are very bunched together after the top few that you could make arguments for a lot of guys to squeeze into the top 30.

[Hrubes20]

Why should he be any different than guys like Baez, Maples, and Vogelbombbach who have only done what they've done against high schoolers?

 

Scouting. Every scout in the country gets a chance to see these guys in HS. You can usually find at least 3 videos of a HS pitching prospect and 10 or so write-ups from guys like Law, Goldstein, Badler, Callis, etc. Going by your own eye (video) and the collective reports from the evaluators, it's pretty easy to get a good read on a prospect.

 

However, with Latin guys that haven't come stateside, you won't find any more than 1 short video, if you even get that. There usually is only 1 scouting report, and that is from Ben Badler. As much as I like and respect Badler, I need more than 1 scouting report on a kid. Maybe I'm more pessimistic than some, though.

[Hrubes20]

Assuming Vitters and McNutt graduate before they're able to achieve #1 status, I'd suggest a few guys besides the ones Outshined_One had (some of whom have been mentioned):

 

Vogelbach

Wells

Jae-Hoon Ha

Golden

 

And if you want to go really obscure, Luis Enrique Acosta and Mark Malave.

 

What do you perceive Ha's ceiling to be? He's one of the more divisive prospects in this system. I can't see him being more than Marlon Byrd at the plate, although he can be Shin-Soo Choo in RF.

[chi-guy]

Speaking of high upside potential and the 1st base position in particular, what is the general consensus on how playing time is found for all of this years draft picks next season? Assuming Vogelbach starts in Boise(?), what do you do with Hoilman, Shoulders, & Gretzky, let alone Bour/Jones/LaHair? Who gets moved to a corner outfield spot or third base?

 

And we want to sign Pujols/Fielder for how long with this glut of potential coming through the system?

[Guest]

Assuming Vitters and McNutt graduate before they're able to achieve #1 status, I'd suggest a few guys besides the ones Outshined_One had (some of whom have been mentioned):

 

Vogelbach

Wells

Jae-Hoon Ha

Golden

 

And if you want to go really obscure, Luis Enrique Acosta and Mark Malave.

 

What do you perceive Ha's ceiling to be? He's one of the more divisive prospects in this system. I can't see him being more than Marlon Byrd at the plate, although he can be Shin-Soo Choo in RF.

 

For Ha to be the #1 prospect in an improved system, his power would have to continue to improve far beyond Marlon Byrd-levels. He has the potential to hit 25+ in a season though I think he'll probably only do that in career high seasons (especially if power continues to trend down).

[Rob]

Speaking of high upside potential and the 1st base position in particular, what is the general consensus on how playing time is found for all of this years draft picks next season? Assuming Vogelbach starts in Boise(?), what do you do with Hoilman, Shoulders, & Gretzky, let alone Bour/Jones/LaHair? Who gets moved to a corner outfield spot or third base?

 

And we want to sign Pujols/Fielder for how long with this glut of potential coming through the system?

 

I know there's already been plenty of talk about letting Gretzky try out 3B/LF/RF... so that should help relieve the logjam for about 2 weeks.

 

LaHair probably goes to Japan sometime in the near future as well.

[Guest]

Speaking of high upside potential and the 1st base position in particular, what is the general consensus on how playing time is found for all of this years draft picks next season? Assuming Vogelbach starts in Boise(?), what do you do with Hoilman, Shoulders, & Gretzky, let alone Bour/Jones/LaHair? Who gets moved to a corner outfield spot or third base?

 

And we want to sign Pujols/Fielder for how long with this glut of potential coming through the system?

If any of those guys approach Pujols talent it will truely be a festivus mericle.

[Guest]

Speaking of high upside potential and the 1st base position in particular, what is the general consensus on how playing time is found for all of this years draft picks next season? Assuming Vogelbach starts in Boise(?), what do you do with Hoilman, Shoulders, & Gretzky, let alone Bour/Jones/LaHair? Who gets moved to a corner outfield spot or third base?

 

And we want to sign Pujols/Fielder for how long with this glut of potential coming through the system?

 

Ridling will probably be at AAA, Bour at AA and Jones/Cuneo at A+. I assume Hoilman will be at Peoria, maybe splitting time at DH/1B with Shoulders. Vogelbach will go to Boise and, as Rob mentioned, Gretzky will probably shift to 3B when his shoulder is healthy (not sure if he needs surgery or what).

[toonsterwu]

Speaking of high upside potential and the 1st base position in particular, what is the general consensus on how playing time is found for all of this years draft picks next season? Assuming Vogelbach starts in Boise(?), what do you do with Hoilman, Shoulders, & Gretzky, let alone Bour/Jones/LaHair? Who gets moved to a corner outfield spot or third base?

 

And we want to sign Pujols/Fielder for how long with this glut of potential coming through the system?

 

I know there's already been plenty of talk about letting Gretzky try out 3B/LF/RF... so that should help relieve the logjam for about 2 weeks.

 

LaHair probably goes to Japan sometime in the near future as well.

 

Wouldn't surprise me if a major league team gave LaHair another look. He's a different bat from when he was in Seattle, and is a better fit now as a possible bench bat. Wouldn't surprise me if he ended up in Japan, but I think someone will likely give him a ST look, at the very least.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Assuming Vitters and McNutt graduate before they're able to achieve #1 status, I'd suggest a few guys besides the ones Outshined_One had (some of whom have been mentioned):

 

Vogelbach

Wells

Jae-Hoon Ha

Golden

 

And if you want to go really obscure, Luis Enrique Acosta and Mark Malave.

 

What do you perceive Ha's ceiling to be? He's one of the more divisive prospects in this system. I can't see him being more than Marlon Byrd at the plate, although he can be Shin-Soo Choo in RF.

 

Marlon Byrd isn't a bad comp. Ha's a really smart player from what I understand, and they've played him in a whole bunch of positions that he's handled well. He's played CF and not embarrassed himself, and he's probably got the best OF arm of the prospects right now.

[Rob]

I hate to say it again... but the comp that always rings true to me is Jeff Francoeur, though perhaps better in the field.

[toonsterwu]

Wait, a comp for Ha in the field is Frenchy? I'm not sure I see that. Much as I had my doubts on it, everything I've seen and read this year is that Ha's a pretty dang good CF. I mean ... if it wasn't for the potential of Szczur, I think some of us might be chatting about Ha pushing BJax to a corner role, and BJax has improved defensively as well.

 

As offensive players, I can see the comparison. In the field, not so sure anymore. A year ago, perhaps, when I had my doubts on Ha in CF.

 

edit: Just to be clear, I know you said better in the field, but I think there's such a significant difference between Ha as a possible good CF and Frenchy in a corner role.

Edited August 24, 2011 by toonsterwu

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

I hate to say it again... but the comp that always rings true to me is Jeff Francoeur, though perhaps better in the field.

 

If you told Jeff Francouer that you were about to bury a curveball in the dirty with high 70s/low80s curveball he'd still swing at it like it's a 95 mph fastball coming down the middle.

[Hrubes20]

Assuming Vitters and McNutt graduate before they're able to achieve #1 status, I'd suggest a few guys besides the ones Outshined_One had (some of whom have been mentioned):

 

Vogelbach

Wells

Jae-Hoon Ha

Golden

 

And if you want to go really obscure, Luis Enrique Acosta and Mark Malave.

 

What do you perceive Ha's ceiling to be? He's one of the more divisive prospects in this system. I can't see him being more than Marlon Byrd at the plate, although he can be Shin-Soo Choo in RF.

 

For Ha to be the #1 prospect in an improved system, his power would have to continue to improve far beyond Marlon Byrd-levels. He has the potential to hit 25+ in a season though I think he'll probably only do that in career high seasons (especially if power continues to trend down).

 

Oh, I know Ha would have to improve the power. I was mostly asking what you thought the liklihood of that happening is. I think he's a 15 HR guy, tops. Lots of doubles, though. He doesn't have a build that will be easy to add bulk to. I just don't think, even in the best case scenario, that Jae-Hoon Ha could be the team's #1 prospect (assuming the rest of the prospects continue on a normal development path).