NSBB Prospect Rankings

[bukie]

I'd probably rate Almora over Jackson just because the potential ceiling is a good deal higher, despite Almora being the prospect furthest from the majors in the system.

 

I'd expect Baez and Soler to have similar timetables to the majors, with Almora probably a year to 18 months behind them on the development curve.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'd have to put Jackson firmly at No. 5 with Junior Lake catching up to him quickly.

 

A 30.4% K rate in AAA is just brutal, and he's shown 30% now across two partial seasons. The chance that he never becomes an acceptable MLB hitter is becoming very real.

[davell]

I've still got Szczur well ahead of Lake, age be damned. Just see the plate discipline as a major accomplishment for Matt. Extra base hits are the same too, just fewer homers so far obviously. To me, Lake's early season plate discipline was great, but doesn't look like it was for real. He's a level higher and they're the same age, but I think Szczur's lack of playing baseball fulltime until very recently gives him a nod still.

[bukie]

An interesting question at this point is whether there is a single pitcher in the Cubs' top 10 right now.

[davell]

It'd be hard for me to leave off McNutt right now. May even put Johnson at or around 10, based on what's been said about him by some analysts.

[bukie]

It'd be hard for me to leave off McNutt right now. May even put Johnson at or around 10, based on what's been said about him by some analysts.

Here's what my thoughts are, at this time (assuming the top 10 picks all sign with the Cubs):

 

1. Rizzo

2. Baez

3. Soler

4. Almora

5. Jackson

6. Szczur

7. Castillo

8. Lake

9. Hernandez

10. Vitters

11. Johnson/Underwood/Blackburn/McNutt

[Guest]

An interesting question at this point is whether there is a single pitcher in the Cubs' top 10 right now.

Ben Wells is in my top 10 but I fear the worst for his elbow.

[Cubswin11]

It'd be hard for me to leave off McNutt right now. May even put Johnson at or around 10, based on what's been said about him by some analysts.

Here's what my thoughts are, at this time (assuming the top 10 picks all sign with the Cubs):

 

1. Rizzo

2. Baez

3. Soler

4. Almora

5. Jackson

6. Szczur

7. Castillo

8. Lake

9. Hernandez

10. Vitters

11. Johnson/Underwood/Blackburn/McNutt

I agree with almost all of this but I still like Vitters a lot and I think I'd slot him at 6 with everyone else moving down a spot.

[El Duderino]

It'd be hard for me to leave off McNutt right now. May even put Johnson at or around 10, based on what's been said about him by some analysts.

Here's what my thoughts are, at this time (assuming the top 10 picks all sign with the Cubs):

 

1. Rizzo

2. Baez

3. Soler

4. Almora

5. Jackson

6. Szczur

7. Castillo

8. Lake

9. Hernandez

10. Vitters

11. Johnson/Underwood/Blackburn/McNutt

I agree with almost all of this but I still like Vitters a lot and I think I'd slot him at 6 with everyone else moving down a spot.

 

This, and add Maples to the pitchers at 11.

[toonsterwu]

Hard to believe that a year ago last week, Brett Jackson was the easy #1 prospect in the system, and now he's 5th without really falling off his projection.

 

5th? Soler, Rizzo, Baez ... Almora? I'm not sure I would clearly put Brett Jackson 5th ... I think Rizzo/Baez are in a tier of their own, but I'd probably lump Jackson/Soler/Almora in a tier. Soler and Almora MIGHT have higher ceilings (Soler probably does ... keep in mind Almora's tools aren't all that different from Brett), but they are so far away.

 

I'm under the impression that Almora's hit tool is significantly better than Jackson's, as is his ability to play CF.

 

The perception is that Almora will be an above average to plus defensive CF ... but whether or not that is the reality, only time will tell, but tools wise, I'm under the impression that if his tools are better than Brett's, it's not by much.

 

I'm a bit wary of judging hit tools for a HS kid right now. I know, people will say I made a similar judgment on Marco Hernandez last year, but my argument then was that it was at a professional level, even if it was Arizona. But that's me. I guess I can understand buying that Almora's hit tool is better, but is it better by enough that Brett's readiness/safety doesn't trump that? That's a very subjective thing, and for me, as of now, it's hard to place Almora ahead, but sure I can understand people that feel otherwise. Way I look at it is ... if Almora reaches AAA and is considered a legitimate prospect like Brett is now, then that's a big win. I hope for better, but there's too many raw kids littered by the wayside. But that's me (and it isn't just a case of where they are relative to being ready for me, because I would still have Marco high).

 

Sufficed to say, on the positional side, the raw talent in the system is as great as it's been in about a decade.

Edited June 12, 2012 by toonsterwu

[toonsterwu]

I've still got Szczur well ahead of Lake, age be damned. Just see the plate discipline as a major accomplishment for Matt. Extra base hits are the same too, just fewer homers so far obviously. To me, Lake's early season plate discipline was great, but doesn't look like it was for real. He's a level higher and they're the same age, but I think Szczur's lack of playing baseball fulltime until very recently gives him a nod still.

 

I think people are sort of under-rating Szczur in this whole thing. I'm not so sure that he's all that behind Almora. If we take a legitimate step back to take a look at it -

 

If Szczur's plate discipline development is real, then the only question left is how much power he develops. The discipline development alone gives him a significantly higher chance of becoming a major leaguer, and his raw tools aren't behind Almora's by much (and may even be ahead). There's still enough people that swear that power will come from Szczur soon, as I keep hearing that he still shows good pop in batting practice (but again ... Vitters showed good pop in BP for awhile ... you have to do something with it in games ... Ryan Sweeney showed good pop in BP, IIRC, but it never translated either). Szczur should hit AA soon. I know Almora's the shiny new thing from this regime, but ... is the gap that wide between Almora and Szczur? I'm not so sure. The assumption is that Almora's power ceiling is better, but it still has to materialize first (Szczur's contact ability was always viewed fairly well).

 

With Lake (and with Vitters), I want to see consistently good performance before raising them. It's fair to say both guys probably have higher ceilings than some of the guys that would be ahead of them.

[toonsterwu]

An interesting question at this point is whether there is a single pitcher in the Cubs' top 10 right now.

 

With Ben Wells injury, I have to finally slide him outside of the top 10. If it isn't TJ, then I'll reconsider sliding him back up, but it sure doesn't sound good (and for all the talk about how TJ is "safe" now, I still would rather not have a pitcher go under the knife).

 

There's enough intrigue about Pierce Johnson, but I can't help but read the reports on him and think Trey McNutt, so for now, I still have McNutt ahead, on the tiny chance that McNutt turns it around and becomes a legitimate starter. But McNutt's the only guy with an argument for top 10-12, IMO (with Wells dropped because of injury).

[toonsterwu]

It'd be hard for me to leave off McNutt right now. May even put Johnson at or around 10, based on what's been said about him by some analysts.

Here's what my thoughts are, at this time (assuming the top 10 picks all sign with the Cubs):

 

1. Rizzo

2. Baez

3. Soler

4. Almora

5. Jackson

6. Szczur

7. Castillo

8. Lake

9. Hernandez

10. Vitters

11. Johnson/Underwood/Blackburn/McNutt

 

I know I'm higher on Hernandez than most, so leaving that one aside, I think that's fair. The one random thought for now is that I'm not so sure that I wouldn't place Baez ahead of Rizzo. It's hard to justify that right now with Rizzo murdering AAA, but Baez's ceiling is that much higher, and if he has a fighting chance to stick at short, that's tempting. Still, could go either way.

[toonsterwu]

It'd be hard for me to leave off McNutt right now. May even put Johnson at or around 10, based on what's been said about him by some analysts.

Here's what my thoughts are, at this time (assuming the top 10 picks all sign with the Cubs):

 

1. Rizzo

2. Baez

3. Soler

4. Almora

5. Jackson

6. Szczur

7. Castillo

8. Lake

9. Hernandez

10. Vitters

11. Johnson/Underwood/Blackburn/McNutt

I agree with almost all of this but I still like Vitters a lot and I think I'd slot him at 6 with everyone else moving down a spot.

 

This, and add Maples to the pitchers at 11.

 

If we're going to add Maples/Underwood/Blackburn to the mix of arms being discussed there, then Jose Rosario really should be in the mix. As with the discussion earlier on him, I don't love him ... and I think he's headed for the pen ... but it's not impossible to envision him as a quality, albeit, undersized, starting pitching prospect, and his fastball might be the best of the lot. He has flashed potential on the change and slider before, so if he put it together ...

 

That said, I still, gut feeling, think, he's a late inning arm moreso than a starter. But I wouldn't put him behind those guys too much, if at all ... and until we know more about Wells injury, I'd lump Wells in that grouping as well (and if Wells is healthy, I take him over the other arms in the system, even if some guys have slightly higher potential ceilings.

[Little Slide Rooter]

This will be the first time in quite a while when putting together a top prospect list will be due to the abundance of talent rather than lack their of, but I'll try later. Spoiler alert: won't be too many pitchers, not in the top 10-15 anyway.

[sneakypower]

This will be the first time in quite a while when putting together a top prospect list will be due to the abundance of talent rather than lack their of, but I'll try later.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_FZVvgFCIxXM/TD5qPdtzViI/AAAAAAAAABE/Ht-VwGQ6bjY/s1600/confused-full.jpg

[Vanilla Ice]

Has there ever been a team with no pitchers in its top 10 at the end of a year?

[sweetpeteman]

It'd be hard for me to leave off McNutt right now. May even put Johnson at or around 10, based on what's been said about him by some analysts.

Here's what my thoughts are, at this time (assuming the top 10 picks all sign with the Cubs):

 

1. Rizzo

2. Baez

3. Soler

4. Almora

5. Jackson

6. Szczur

7. Castillo

8. Lake

9. Hernandez

10. Vitters

11. Johnson/Underwood/Blackburn/McNutt

 

 

Candelario? I think he has to be in the top ten.

[El Duderino]

It'd be hard for me to leave off McNutt right now. May even put Johnson at or around 10, based on what's been said about him by some analysts.

Here's what my thoughts are, at this time (assuming the top 10 picks all sign with the Cubs):

 

1. Rizzo

2. Baez

3. Soler

4. Almora

5. Jackson

6. Szczur

7. Castillo

8. Lake

9. Hernandez

10. Vitters

11. Johnson/Underwood/Blackburn/McNutt

 

 

Candelario? I think he has to be in the top ten.

 

With Rizzo graduating and Jackson striking out 32% of the time in AAA, he has an outside shot to be top 5 if he continues to tear up Boise, imo

[El Duderino]

I've been messing around trying to do a top 15 for the first time, and this is really hard. I have no idea where to put Jackson, Vitters, or Castillo at this point. My initial attempt had Brett at 7... crazy?

[Guest]

I think it's pretty tough to justify 6 guys ahead of Jackson when considering the totality of his career to this point, but then I'm not one who does the daily Jackson K-Watch so maybe I'm not as concerned as I need to be.

[davell]

Brett's still 4th for me.

[El Duderino]

Yeah, I'm having a hard time balancing ceiling and the level these guys are at. Especially when the Cubs have so much talent in the short-season leagues.

[jersey cubs fan]

I think it's pretty tough to justify 6 guys ahead of Jackson when considering the totality of his career to this point, but then I'm not one who does the daily Jackson K-Watch so maybe I'm not as concerned as I need to be.

 

I'm not watching it daily, but whenever I do take a look, it's alarming as hell. He's around a 34% k rate and his overall numbers are no longer impressive enough to try and ignore it. He's in the low 800s for OPS.

[Guest]

I think it's pretty tough to justify 6 guys ahead of Jackson when considering the totality of his career to this point, but then I'm not one who does the daily Jackson K-Watch so maybe I'm not as concerned as I need to be.

 

I'm not watching it daily, but whenever I do take a look, it's alarming as hell. He's around a 34% k rate and his overall numbers are no longer impressive enough to try and ignore it. He's in the low 800s for OPS.

 

Certainly, he's taken a step back this year. After that step back though, I still have a very hard time coming up with 6 guys who I can say are better prospects at this point. Baez, Almora, and Soler, sure. Past that, and I'm having a hard time coming up with anyone who doesn't have similar warts in their game, and Jackson's stellar minor league past wins out for me.