NSBB Prospect Rankings

[toonsterwu]

DeJesus with speed is pretty good comp. I don't want to give up on him developing 15 HR power, but I can't put him over the higher-level infield guys right now.

 

Out of curiosity, why? davell notes the idea of Villanueva moving to 2nd (I doubt it since he's gotten bigger and it's hard to imagine him becoming a top notch defensive 2nd base option to justify the move), but the thought is probably partly due to the idea that Villanueva might not have the ideal power potential at 3rd (at least, I'm assuming that's what davell is thinking ... I might be completely off base. Maybe it's love for Vitters, or maybe it's Baez shifting to 3rd).

 

So ... I guess, and I'm asking more from a discussion perspective, what exactly is it about Villanueva that gets him the nod ahead of Szczur? A potential average power, plus glove 3rd baseman, one who has some discipline concerns right now, or a possible plus glove CF with some pop.

 

* I'm avoiding Alcantara in this discussion because I can buy the argument to take a shortstop over Szczur, and if you assume that Alcantara will get more consistent defensively and if you buy that his discipline/approach won't harm him in the upper levels, then okay. (and yes, I'm still sticking with what I said on the day of the trade - I'll likely keep Alcantara over Villanueva on my list).

[toonsterwu]

Why am I not surprised that I keep hearing talk about Szczur doing well at AA, so I checked on how he's doing, and he's hitting 230/309/426. Yes, he's on a hot streak lately, but I still just don't see the big deal with this kid. Not in my top 10.

 

So ... a plus glove CF, with speed, solid discipline, some pop, and has had some bad luck in the early goings in AA, someone who had a solid run in A+ and has a hit tool/contact ability that is viewed as above average to plus, isn't a top 10 prospect in this system? I'm very curious who is in your top 10 then.

Edited August 12, 2012 by toonsterwu

[El Duderino]

When it comes to Villanueva over Szczur, I just think the value of having an above average 3B with a plus glove has never been higher. 3B as a position has been down for quite awhile.

[toonsterwu]

I just think the value of having an above average 3B with a plus glove has never been higher. Finding guys like that has never been harder.

 

I get that, to a certain extent, but is the fact that there's positional scarcity enough to compensate for the fact that there's a glaring issue with Villanueva? Again, just curious on thought processes, as I'm not here to change anyone's mind. I mean, both Alcantara and Villanueva have big question marks as it relates to their approach.

 

Both guys may have a touch higher ceiling than Szczur (that's debatable, but I'll grant that for this discussion), but it's hard for me to overlook positional value and the fact that he doesn't have a glaring problem as of now.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Why am I not surprised that I keep hearing talk about Szczur doing well at AA, so I checked on how he's doing, and he's hitting 230/309/426. Yes, he's on a hot streak lately, but I still just don't see the big deal with this kid. Not in my top 10.

 

So ... a plus glove CF, with speed, solid discipline, some pop, and has had some bad luck in the early goings in AA, someone who had a solid run in A+ and has a hit tool that is viewed as above average to plus, isn't a top 10 prospect in this system? I'm very curious who is in your top 10 then.

 

I've been down on Szczur all season. He's old for a prospect and has a hideous and slappy swing.

 

I don't know about his defense. For now, I'll take people's words that it is plus in CF, but I know that label gets thrown around a lot in the minors. I have a standing policy to be deeply suspicious of minor league defense reports. He may be legit, but they frequently turn out to be overrated.

 

"Some pop?" Where's the pop? He's on pace for 4 home runs per 600 PAs this season. The pop disappeared when he added plate discipline. Until he proves he can have both at the same time, I'm not buying it. He's got some extra base hits, but they look like fake minor league fast guy power to me, where a super-fast hitter racks up 2bs and 3bs against poorly positioned, indifferent outfielders.

 

"Above average to plus hit tool"? Really? In my world, guys with above-average to plus hit tools don't hit .285 in the low minors. Again, I just don't see it.

 

Maybe I'll be wrong. I'm wrong a lot and even smart people are wrong frequently about prospects. But other than the speed, I don't see anything to like about Szczur.

[davell]

For me, the averagish power and being blocked by Baez or Castro( my guess is Baez winds up at 3B still) along with a solid glove, will at least tempt the Cubs to give Villanueva a shot at 2B unless he's dealt before it becomes an actual issue.

[Guest]

I just think the value of having an above average 3B with a plus glove has never been higher. Finding guys like that has never been harder.

 

I get that, to a certain extent, but is the fact that there's positional scarcity enough to compensate for the fact that there's a glaring issue with Villanueva? Again, just curious on thought processes, as I'm not here to change anyone's mind. I mean, both Alcantara and Villanueva have big question marks as it relates to their approach.

 

Both guys may have a touch higher ceiling than Szczur (that's debatable, but I'll grant that for this discussion), but it's hard for me to overlook positional value and the fact that he doesn't have a glaring problem as of now.

 

I think a lot of the love for Villanueva comes from SNT syndrome.

[El Duderino]

I just don't see discipline being a "glaring issue" with Villanueva. If that's the case, power is a glaring issue with Szczur.

[toonsterwu]

I had a huge comment type up, but browser froze. Anyhow, I think the "slappy" label on his swing isn't that fair anymore. I saw his swing last year, saw his swing this year. It seemed much improved. I would note that he was hitting for much better pop in May/June, before the injury. I don't think Szczur is Ha defensively, as he lacks the arm, but he can definitely run down all the throws, and one of the critiques about him last year, that he took poor routes at times, seems to be slowly disappearing.

 

But skipping ahead on the analysis of Szczur ... you've overlooked the crux of my discussion point. I've never suggested that Szczur was going to be a stud starting CF. The most positive praise I gave on Szczur this year was probably what I wrote above - that I think he could be a decent starter and that he might have some potential to be a bit more. I was tremendously down on Szczur this past winter. Very wary of him, and I'm sure there's comments littered in a ton of places.

 

That said, our system isn't that deep after the top few guys. So ... I'm curious, who else fits in ahead of him in the top 10?

[toonsterwu]

I just don't see discipline being a "glaring issue" with Villanueva. If that's the case, power is a glaring issue with Szczur.

 

Well, to the extent that the K rate isn't a tremendous concern, it isn't that big an issue. But ... if that's the case, then Alcantara and Junior Lake aren't big issues.

 

I don't know enough on Villanueva to comment beyond what's been said about him, so that's why I'm sort of dragging Alcantara/Lake into this response. Both are guys that are known as aggressive swingers with discipline concerns, but their K numbers wouldn't suggest it (well ... 20+% on Lake is a bit more problematic for this discussion than Alcantara). That said, having seen them over the years ... they are ... aggressive swingers (as a random side note, I feel like aggressive is the nice word for "free") with questionable approaches/discipline. For the most part, Villanueva's reports read that way, and that's why I'm viewing it in that prism as of now.

 

I guess, glaring issue might be over-stating it. Maybe ... a serious issue of concern, as with Szczur's walk rate entering 2012.

[davell]

You don't think the system is deep? I wish we had more current top end guys, but I like the depth a lot and have plenty of hope as some of the youngsters get into A ball and higher, more top end types emerge.

[toonsterwu]

I just think the value of having an above average 3B with a plus glove has never been higher. Finding guys like that has never been harder.

 

I get that, to a certain extent, but is the fact that there's positional scarcity enough to compensate for the fact that there's a glaring issue with Villanueva? Again, just curious on thought processes, as I'm not here to change anyone's mind. I mean, both Alcantara and Villanueva have big question marks as it relates to their approach.

 

Both guys may have a touch higher ceiling than Szczur (that's debatable, but I'll grant that for this discussion), but it's hard for me to overlook positional value and the fact that he doesn't have a glaring problem as of now.

 

I think a lot of the love for Villanueva comes from SNT syndrome.

 

Yeah, I imagine. I feel like I'm bashing Cubs prospects these days when I don't intend to. I like Villanueva a ton, and I know why folks are intrigued. If he shows that he could have more then average power, and if the approach issue is improved (both possible), he'd easily be ahead of Szczur. I'm not sure I buy Szczur's ceiling as anything more than solid, and I think I can buy Villanueva being better than solid.

 

I guess I'll be thickheaded and keep Alcantara ahead of him. I imagine that most of the lists will go the other way, but I can't help wonder ... what the heck is the difference btw the two guys offensive ceilings. If the difference isn't big, I'll take the shortstop ahead of Villanueva, even if I have doubts on Arismendy.

[El Duderino]

Alcantara's injury kind of scared me off putting him ahead of Villanueva. That sounds kind of stupid after typing it, but it's like he just fell off the face of the earth and we never really heard the extent of it.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I had a huge comment type up, but browser froze. Anyhow, I think the "slappy" label on his swing isn't that fair anymore. I saw his swing last year, saw his swing this year. It seemed much improved. I would note that he was hitting for much better pop in May/June, before the injury. I don't think Szczur is Ha defensively, as he lacks the arm, but he can definitely run down all the throws, and one of the critiques about him last year, that he took poor routes at times, seems to be slowly disappearing.

 

But skipping ahead on the analysis of Szczur ... you've overlooked the crux of my discussion point. I've never suggested that Szczur was going to be a stud starting CF. The most positive praise I gave on Szczur this year was probably what I wrote above - that I think he could be a decent starter and that he might have some potential to be a bit more. I was tremendously down on Szczur this past winter. Very wary of him, and I'm sure there's comments littered in a ton of places.

 

That said, our system isn't that deep after the top few guys. So ... I'm curious, who else fits in ahead of him in the top 10?

 

Off the top of my head, I like Soler, Baez, Almora, Vizcaino, Villanueva, Candelario, Vogelbach and Alcantara. Jackson and Vitters still technically are prospects, right? And I never know where to rank the really low minors arms, but there's got to be a few I'd like better.

 

It's not saying anything great about our system. I just don't see anything I like about Szczur, who I see as Bobby Hill with less hit tool.

[toonsterwu]

You don't think the system is deep? I wish we had more current top end guys, but I like the depth a lot and have plenty of hope as some of the youngsters get into A ball and higher, more top end types emerge.

 

I should've been more careful in my typing. I break things down into tiers (started doing this when I used to follow the NFL draft, and it's just carried over). I think we're deep, but if we break the system down into say, tiers, I think that 2nd tier, after Baez/Almora/Soler and maybe Vizcaino (I'm assuming BJax graduates), I think that 2nd tier is a bit weak as of now. Vitters would fit in there for me in that 2nd tier (I really doubt he loses rookie eligibility).

 

A lot of the guys that make up the strong depth of the system, I consider them to be in the 3rd/4th tiers of the system. A lot of end of the rotation guys, a lot of possible pen arms, a lot of young raw guys with upside in that grouping. I guess, for clarity's purpose, I have Amaya in that "3rd tier" for me (debating top 10 for him, or just outside of it in that 11-15 rank). I really like what he's done, but he's really far away, and I'm still curious what the power upside is. It seems like, as of now, the best case defensive scenario is a guy that is average/passable at 2nd, so he'll need his offense to really carry him. There just seems to be enough justifiable concern on him to not get too crazy over him as of now.

 

Edit: I'm not sure I'm going to have time to finish up my top 30 list today, so for clarity's sake, I'll throw my top 10 here to explain my "tiers".

 

Top tier Baez, Almora, Soler (I think Baez deserves to be ranked above this group for now, as he has elite potential, but this it the largely agreed upon top 3, could go either way with Almora/Soler)

 

2nd tier - Vizcaino/Jackson/Szczur/Vitters/Candelario - Candelario's upside justifies a spot in this group, IMO, as he offers a potential all-around dominant hitter. He just needs some time (although the lack of power the last 2 months is troublesome, expectations were always that it would take time for him to fully tap into his power). There's an outside chance that BJax won't be eligible, so I may have to remove him. I love Vizcaino, but there has to be some concern held for him, medically and work load wise, as of now. One could, outside of Jeimer, view this 2nd tier as guys that look, on paper, to have a decent chance to reach the bigs and have some productive time. That's fair to question, but in my head, what I was balancing, and what separated these guys from the guys after, was that, as of now, I view their potential/value/risk combination as being better. In Candelario's case, that's pure potential is that exciting (and it makes me wonder if I have him too low). There's a lot of names in that list, but it feels like a weak 2nd tier to me because of the issues with Arodys (health), BJax (K's), Vitters (ceiling and defense, I guess), Candelario (raw), so hence why I view the 2nd tier as weak.

 

3rd tier - Alcantara, Torreyes (and yes, that's top 10 for him on my list as of now ... doesn't mean that I've changed my mind about anything I've said on him before, and it doesn't mean that I am not taking a wait and see on how he does in AA), Vogelbach, Villanueva, Pierce Johnson, Amaya, Hernandez (I've only worked on a partial list as of now, so a lot more people could fit in here, and maybe some could slide ahead of some of the guys I've listed so far)

Edited August 12, 2012 by toonsterwu

[toonsterwu]

Alcantara's injury kind of scared me off putting him ahead of Villanueva. That sounds kind of stupid after typing it, but it's like he just fell off the face of the earth and we never really heard the extent of it.

 

Actually, I can understand that. I wish we did know more about the injury. I mean, if it's something major, it really could impact thinking.

 

I guess, I'm working with the idea that he'll be okay, physically, next spring, so in my mind, I can utilize his performance this year and the scouting reports on his potential, to go with.

 

But I recall Sam Fuld's injury several years back in the system. Lost in the discussion about Fuld was the fact that he lost a good step after the injury. He probably had plus speed back in the day (I really don't recall anymore, and don't recall any of the reports on him). So yeah, I think it's fair to be concerned about injuries. I mean, if Alcantara has something that costs him lateral range, I'd definitely be concerned.

[Guest]

Toonster - The only thing about Szczur's babip in AA is that he's earned that low mark and it should probably be even lower. I know the gb/ld/fb numbers in the minors aren't that reliable, but he's at a 8% LD rate right now.

 

I think that is sss issue and will turn around, but that explains the batting average right now.

[davell]

FWIW, on a Sickels grading scale, I'd give B+'s out to Baez, Soler, and Almora, B's to Vizcaino and Vogelbach, B-'s to Torreyes, Candelario, Villanueva, Amaya, Johnson, and Szczur and C+'s to everyone else down to Peralta at 20.

[rawaction]

FWIW, on a Sickels grading scale, I'd give B+'s out to Baez, Soler, and Almora, B's to Vizcaino and Vogelbach, B-'s to Torreyes, Candelario, Villanueva, Amaya, Johnson, and Szczur and C+'s to everyone else down to Peralta at 20.

 

I can agree with that. I might give an A- to Baez, and maybe a B to Johnson depending on how this season ends for him. But pretty much dead on.

[Ryno12]

I'll take a stab at it:

 

1. Javier Baez

2. Albert Almora

3. Jorge Soler

4. Arodys Vizcaino

5. Pierce Johnson

6. Christian Villanueva

7. Jeimer Candelario

8. Dan Vogelbach

9. Matt Szczur

10. Gioskar Amaya

11. Ronald Torreyes

12. Marco Hernandez

13. Dillon Maples

14. Duane Underwood

15. Paul Blackburn

16. Arismendy Alcantara

17. Junior Lake

18. Starling Peralta

19. Jose Rosario

20. Ben Wells

[toonsterwu]

I'll take a stab at it:

 

1. Javier Baez

2. Albert Almora

3. Jorge Soler

4. Arodys Vizcaino

5. Pierce Johnson

6. Christian Villanueva

7. Jeimer Candelario

8. Dan Vogelbach

9. Matt Szczur

10. Gioskar Amaya

11. Ronald Torreyes

12. Marco Hernandez

13. Dillon Maples

14. Duane Underwood

15. Paul Blackburn

16. Arismendy Alcantara

17. Junior Lake

18. Starling Peralta

19. Jose Rosario

20. Ben Wells

 

I can buy it, although ... I think I'm apt to rank both Underwood and Blackburn over Maples. I've just never been THAT excited about Maples, although it was awesome that we landed him.

 

Here's my question to you - why the big gap from Villanueva to Alcantara? What is it about the 3rd baseman that you like more than the shortstop, by such a wide margin.

[toonsterwu]

FWIW, on a Sickels grading scale, I'd give B+'s out to Baez, Soler, and Almora, B's to Vizcaino and Vogelbach, B-'s to Torreyes, Candelario, Villanueva, Amaya, Johnson, and Szczur and C+'s to everyone else down to Peralta at 20.

 

I can agree with that. I might give an A- to Baez, and maybe a B to Johnson depending on how this season ends for him. But pretty much dead on.

 

I'd lean to an A- for Baez as well, unless some alarming hole emerges in game that isn't a case of being so young in A+. I guess I'm still in a more wait and see mode on Vogelbach than everyone else. On Sickels, I'd lean towards a high B- there.

 

But really, the only issue are the B and up grades, as I think even Sickels has noted before that C+/B- guys aren't separated by all that much and may be a matter of personal preference (or I think he's said something like that before).

[Ryno12]

I'll take a stab at it:

 

1. Javier Baez

2. Albert Almora

3. Jorge Soler

4. Arodys Vizcaino

5. Pierce Johnson

6. Christian Villanueva

7. Jeimer Candelario

8. Dan Vogelbach

9. Matt Szczur

10. Gioskar Amaya

11. Ronald Torreyes

12. Marco Hernandez

13. Dillon Maples

14. Duane Underwood

15. Paul Blackburn

16. Arismendy Alcantara

17. Junior Lake

18. Starling Peralta

19. Jose Rosario

20. Ben Wells

 

I can buy it, although ... I think I'm apt to rank both Underwood and Blackburn over Maples. I've just never been THAT excited about Maples, although it was awesome that we landed him.

 

Here's my question to you - why the big gap from Villanueva to Alcantara? What is it about the 3rd baseman that you like more than the shortstop, by such a wide margin.

 

It is mainly because I'm not sold that Alcantara's bat is real yet. If he continues to hit like he did this year at AA next year, then he will shoot up my list. Though, looking at his BR page, I guess his track record is a little better than I remembered, and I'd be comfortable putting him as high as 10. With Villanueva, at lot of it is SNT syndrome.

[toonsterwu]

That's fair. I'd have Alcantara in my top 10, but if you asked me if I "buy" him as of now, I'd probably say no as well. Although, I am hopeful.

[davell]

After tonight, there's 19 games left. Brett has 94 at bats and Vitters has less than that. I think it's extremely likely both will still be considered prospects by BA and the other publications that rank prospects. Can't see Brett getting 56 at bats from here on out if he's batting low in the order, taking a few walks, and probabky getting a few more days off as well.