NSBB Prospect Rankings

[davell]

Teams I see with better systems than us currently would be Toronto, Texas, STL, Pittsburgh, KC, Oakland, Seattle, Houston, and Arizona. Teams we're probably on a par with are Baltimore(no depth), Boston, Yankees, Padres, Twins, and Reds.

[toonsterwu]

I like Vizcaino a ton, but I wouldn't put him ahead of Brett Jackson right now. He's coming off TJ, the innings workload is enough of an issue to put significant doubt on the idea of whether or not he can become a starter (I fully expect the Cubs to try him as one, just saying that there is justifiable doubt now, particularly when you factor in that his clock has started).

 

I'm also not completely sold that Villanueva deserves to be that high, but then again, that's also the weak area of our system (bottom of the back 10). I would, though, put Szczur much higher than you have. Candelario is struggling offensively, and Szczur's potential to be a plus center fielder, IMO, puts him close (or ahead) of Vitters.

 

_____

 

I think we are ahead of Baltimore. Bundy would top all the lists, but I think Baez would be 2nd right now, ahead of Machado, and we are deeper. I thought Boston and the Padres systems were over-hyped last year, and I still feel that way. Not sure if we are ahead of them, but wanted to get that shot in on those two systems.

[toonsterwu]

My top 4 is the same with the same gap. I have Jackson at 5 and Candelario at 6. Need more time to decide on Villanueva and how he slots in te back of my top 10.

 

I believe Welington Castillo completed achieved the service time requirement for a rookie and is no longer a prospect.

 

Interesting. I have been a gigantic Vizcaino fan ... but I am hard pressed to slot him ahead of Brett Jackson for the reasons I noted above, but it's interesting that so many have him locked there.

 

If I took a stab now, I'd go

 

Baez

 

gap

 

Soler, Almora

 

gap

 

BJax, Vizcaino, Szczur, Vitters

 

gap

 

Candelario,

 

gap

 

Alcantara, Pierce Johnson (could go a number of ways)

 

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As interesting as Christian Villanueva is, it's somewhat easy to overlook that his offensive profile is very, very similar to Alcantara's, Arismendy actually walks a similar rate, and has struck out, % wise, a bit less this year. Now, the reports on Alcantara are that he's a bit of an aggressive hitter, to say the least, and I'm not exactly certain if Villanueva needs to tighten the strike zone, or if he's a bit of a hacker that extends the zone. Alcantara's got better speed. So ... similar offensive profiles, I'll take the potential shortstop in my ranking, as of now.

 

Edit: for some reason, I thought Villanueva was in A ball, but I still think I would take the potential shortstop at a similar level over the 3rd baseman, as of now.

 

I don't really like Pierce Johnson there, but I think the argument for him is a polished college arm with mid-rotation ceiling gets the benefit of the doubt, but can understand a lot of other options here.

 

I'm surprised that Szczur is fairly low on most lists - plus defensive center fielder, good baserunner, and is showing an improved approach. Even if the power never comes around, he could still make a pro career out of what he currently has to offer.

Edited August 1, 2012 by toonsterwu

[davell]

I'm tagging Brett for his current struggles, maybe more than I should honestly, since I do see him as a longterm CFer for us. My 7 thru 11 could go in any order, depending on my mood that day. But I actually think all of my top 15 would be top 300 guys, speaking positively about our depth anyway. Definitely see the 9 I mentioned as having better systems than us, figure we'll fall anywhere in the 10-13ish range, depending on who's doing the grading. You called San Diego for sure, but I still like Boston a decent amount. Both have depth though, so I figure they'll both be ranked in our vicinity. Baltimore is awful after their top 4, including Gausman, but figure Bundy amps up their ranking higher than it should be.

[davell]

Oh, I'll say this too: A Garza trade in the offseason conceivably puts us in the top 10. Assuming we even get one top 100ish type guy and not guys alrwady in the majors.

[toonsterwu]

Oh you know, I completely forgot about Baltimore's recent draft class when assessing that system. Actually, I loved their draft, and so yeah, I could see them "on par" with us. While I think Kline is eventually a pen arm, there's too much tantalizing ability to not try him as a starter (straighten him up a bit to see if he can get more movement, physically could add more velocity, so if the change comes along, ta da).

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The fact that Vizcaino might not be a starter isn't really a problem for me. I've always been big on the idea that 1-2 relief aces per team can be just as valuable as any starter.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Brett Jackson's OPS is looking very much like it will go below .800 before long. I almost don't want to put him in my top 10 at all.

[toonsterwu]

The fact that Vizcaino might not be a starter isn't really a problem for me. I've always been big on the idea that 1-2 relief aces per team can be just as valuable as any starter.

 

Sure, there's a value to elite pen arms, but I'd argue that the combination of Brett being an above average defensive centerfielder (really, it's been somewhat lost, albeit justifiably, that reports on his defense seem to be better than last year's) and Arodys being an under-the-knife arm with a high probability for pen duty (again, I personally expect the Cubs to try him as a starter, just saying the outlook as of now) should give Brett a bump.

 

But that's me. At the end of the day, it'd take a rare elite pen arm for me, personally, to rank ahead of a guy like Brett, even with all his faults. I do love Vizcaino, though, and if showed an ability to carry a solid workload as a starter next year, that would change the equation for me.

[El Duderino]

I'm an idiot. Edited August 6, 2012 by El Duderino

[Outshined_One]

1 Baez

2 Soler

3 Almora

4 Vizcaino

5 B Jackson

6 Vitters

7 Candelario

8 Villanueva

9 Szczur

10 P Johnson

11 Vogelbach

12 Torreyes

13 Alcantara

14 Amaya

15 Lake

 

My Top 10 looks a lot like this one, although I'd swap out Pierce Johnson for Alcantara. Might tinker around a bit with the order of 5-9, too.

[davell]

My legit personal top 30, without Brett and Vitters. I have a habit of letting BA influence my rankings, but not this one, quite a bit different. Flame away.

1 Javy Baez

2 Soler

3 Almora

4 Vizcaino

5 Vogelbach

6 Torreyes

7 Candelario

8 Villanueva

9 Amaya

10 P Johnson

11 Szczur

12 Blackburn

13 Alcantara

14 Lake

15 Wells

16 Hernandez

17 Maples

18 Underwood

19 Rosario

20 Peralta

21 Watkins

22 Scott

23 Whitenack

24 Zych

25 McNutt

26 Ha

27 Batista

28 Trey Martin

29 Bruno

30 DeVoss

 

Yes, fully aware I'm higher on Torreyes than most, but I honestly think he's our longterm answer at 2B. Really hard to rank the TJS guys, or even if they're just injured(hopefully Rosario). If Wells was healthy, he'd be in the back of my top 10. I'm not a huge Whitenack fan, so I doubt I'd have him much higher. Rosario could have slid up 5 spots or so. Batista never gets any play on here at all(Toonster mentions him on occasion) but he throws mid 90's, doesn't he? His control looks to be decent and the results have been excellent obviously. Why can't he be a legit set up guy longterm? Wanted to put Paniagua in there, but since theres little info on him, I held off and I stayed away from DSL guys, due to length away and my penchant to taking higher upside guys at lower levels already. To me, the big dropoff occurs after 18 on my list. And I'm giving Underwood the big upside plus or else it'd occur after 15 for me. But I see 16-18 as having real upside, while 19 and down have more issues(mostly because they're known already)

[El Duderino]

Just cuz:

 

1. Javier Baez

2. Jorge Soler

3. Albert Almora

4. Arodys Vizcaino

5. Pierce Johnson

6. Christian Villanueva

7. Arismendy Alcantara

8. Ronald Torreyes

9. Matt Szczur

10. Jeimer Candelario

11. Dan Vogelbach

12. Gioskar Amaya

13. Ben Wells

14. Paul Blackburn

15. Dillon Maples

16. Marco Hernandez

17. Duane Underwood

18. Junior Lake

19. Robert Whitenack

20. Jose Rosario

21. Starling Peralta

22. Jae-Hoon Ha

23. Logan Watkins

24. Tayler Scott

25. Shawon Dunston

26. Stephen Bruno

27. Tony Zych

28. Trey McNutt

29. Trey Martin

30. Jeffrey Baez

[davell]

Damn, we had the same 18 at the top and 28 of 30 altogether. And there's probably another 20 guys I considered for my last 5. Raison, Toonster, am I right about Batista? He can get up to 95 or so, right? Not sit there, but he sits 91-93, or am I mistaken?

[El Duderino]

I've been messing around with that list for awhile. 11-30 has gone through many permutations.

[Warpticon]

No love for the great Tim Saunders?

[toonsterwu]

No love for the great Tim Saunders?

 

As of right now, he seems more like a utility player.

 

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davell - Batista doesn't throw mid-90's, unless touching 93 counts. He's been as low as 88 before, at least, that I know of.

 

I'll throw out a top 10 or more later, if possible, but I would note that I think the chances of Vitters not being rookie eligible seem slim, unless I haven't counted the numbers. Brett is the more likely of the two to not be rookie eligible, and with his bad start, we sort of have to wait and see.

[davell]

Damn, not sure where I got to thinking that on Batista. I guess I'd move a few guts up and put Jensen in at 30 then.

[toonsterwu]

Damn, not sure where I got to thinking that on Batista. I guess I'd move a few guts up and put Jensen in at 30 then.

 

I've been awfully busy this summer, so maybe he has upped it to mid-90's. I think there were some reports from his Arizona/XST/Boise days that might have suggested mid-90s, as I remember thinking that a couple years ago, but for the past couple years, the only numbers I've seen/gotten have suggested, at best, he tops out 92/93 (roughly). I'm sure everyone that can hit 92/93 can rear back and perhaps occasionally bomb in at a bit higher, but haven't heard much to suggest mid-90's on a consistent basis.

 

I'd take Jensen over him. I might take Jensen over a few of your guys on the back end of the top 30, but I really haven't pondered a top 30 in awhile. I've lost some intrigue on Jensen, but I think he'd still crack my top 30.

[toonsterwu]

So, working through my list right now, I'm left with a curiosity question, primarily for El Duderino and davell since they posted lists above this - why do you have Matt Szczur where you have him (really, more davell than El Duderino)? After a rough start to double A life, the walks are climbing and the K's are coming down. I guess a "snapshot" now would leave some questions to his approach, so we certainly have to see how he finishes, but he's hitting for some power, he's walking enough (and hopefully, the overall percentage for AA is higher at season's end), and he's still playing a good CF.

 

Much as I am intrigued with Alcantara and Villanueva ... here's a guy in AA (granted, just got there), close to ready to the bigs, and looks ... looks (which can be deceiving) like a possible decent starter in the bigs with some potential to be better (combination of defense, some pop, solid approach gives him a decent shot, on paper, to be a decent starting CF in the bigs). And ... Szczur doesn't have the glaring issue that Alcantara and Villanueva have. I mean, low BABIP has been utilized to defend players, so even though I think none of us are reading too much into his AA numbers yet (SSS), it's worth noting that, with his speed, that .271 BABIP seems to suggest some bad luck.

 

As a general thought, I think Szczur got over-hyped by BA when he came into the bigs, but I feel like his season has somewhat gone under-the-radar this year. He looks ... good. I mean, I honestly wouldn't be stunned if the Cubs gave him a look next spring (more to get a taste of ST, but a look is a look), and it honestly wouldn't surprise me, as of now, if he was up by summer, perhaps akin to BJax/Vitters call-ups (but I'm hoping earlier).

[davell]

My list has quite a bit of gut feel in it, to a certain degree. Gun to my head, I honestly see everyone I listed as a better major leaguer than Szczur. Granted, these guys are all at lower levels, so by the time they reach AA, some will probably lose some luster for various reasons. That said, I see Szczur as a second division regular, maybe DeJesus with speed and not quite the discipline. My list is NOT an indictment of him, as much as how highly I value the guys above him. I would put Villanueva lower, but I've got it in my head he's winding up as a 2B, with Torreyes and Amaya. Which is my own issue with my list, having 3 guys I all see as 2B inside the top 10. But their bats do enough for me to allow for it, in the end.

[El Duderino]

DeJesus with speed is pretty good comp. I don't want to give up on him developing 15 HR power, but I can't put him over the higher-level infield guys right now. Edited August 12, 2012 by El Duderino

[Guest]

DeJesus couldn't hang with Szczur defensively.

[toonsterwu]

I don't know if I buy, just yet, that Szczur isn't going to be as disciplined as DeJesus. Career wise, DeJesus has a 13.6% K rate and an 8.5% walk rate. I was really worried about Szczur's discipline last year, but he's made strides, and as of now, I tend to think that the start to AA was more pressure than a mark on his ability to play at a higher level.

 

I'm looking at this year's CF list on fangraphs and trying to think of a comp. I honestly wouldn't be surprised, as of now, if Szczur could put up a Bourn type season. I'm thinking, as of now, that, relative to what the player's have done this year, maybe De Aza with better defense would be a decent comp (there's also Span and Victorino as guys who are putting up lines that I could see Szczur do, but those require him to really cut down on his K's a tick more).

 

Anyhow, there's still parts of the season to go, so we'll get a better idea on Szczur at year's end. Maybe he collapses, and this discussion is for naught.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Why am I not surprised that I keep hearing talk about Szczur doing well at AA, so I checked on how he's doing, and he's hitting 230/309/426. Yes, he's on a hot streak lately, but I still just don't see the big deal with this kid. Not in my top 10.