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I haven't been on this site in a while, so I just came back to say AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA Also now I"m in tears because I didn't know Fred had passed away. I wish he could have seen it.

FWIW the difference between Vogelbach last year and Vogelbach this year was basically 8 hits. Catg: G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS 2013: 131 566 483 68 137 23 0 19 76 5 4 73 89 .284 .375 .449 .824 2014: 132 560 482 71 129 28 1 16 76 4 4 66 91 .268 .357 .429 .787 Despite having more XBH, but 8 fewer hits (3 fewer HR), his slugging was 20 points lower and his OPS was 37 points lower. Vogelbach was actually very consistent with his performance from year to year. And he was technically younger for his performance levels this year than he was last year (-1.5 in 2013 vs. -1.7 this year according to BR). The only thing that apparently drastically changed for Vogelbach between 2013 and 2014 was that he lost 30 pounds in the offseason to increase his versatility. I don't remember hearing a lot about Vogelbach's defense this season, but I'm sure it didn't get much better if it did so he was basically the same guy. Maybe that wasn't good enough for most people. He was promoted a little aggressively to High A in 2013 (he was nearly 3 years younger than the average age in 2013 there), and spent his entire season there in 2014. I really don't think Vogelbach is any worse or better than people think he may or may not be. I think the oversaturation of amazing hitting prospects we've had over the past year and a half affects that. We added Russell, McKinney, and Schwarber while seeing impressive debuts from Torres and Zagunis, along with the domination of Bryant and Soler, and the graduations of Baez and Alcantara. As a result Vogelbach's hitting skills look like rat ass comparatively speaking and I think people are not evaluating him objectively. Those 8 fewer hits give his slash line a stark contrast, but in reality he wasn't that much different from last season when he was our 8th best prospect. And some of the guys we've put ahead of him are there solely on scouting reports and promise, while Vogelbach basically did exactly what he did last year and at a level that he was nearly 2 years younger for. I've seen a lot of general opinion that he took a step back, but did he really? Or did he just take a step back because so many other prospects took a step forward? He's 22 and he's likely to start the year in AA, where he'll be about 2 years young for the league. That's a pretty damn good bat to make it that far at that age for someone with no defensive value, but somehow he's not a good enough hitter to a lot of people here? Interesting. If people want to deduct him points for pretty much being a future DH, that's understandable, but to say he's not hitting enough is just subjective analysis, IMO. I think it's less about a step back than it is the absence of a step forward. As a big guy with a weak defensive profile, the expectation was that he would be carried by his bat. His bat has been solid, but I think most people expected a bit more power out of it by 22. The absurd level of the power bats in the Cubs system over the past couple of years may have skewed expectations a bit as well.

I'm going Johnson because he's at the highest level. I'm of similar mind that a lot of these pitching prospects feel same-y so far--not that that's a bad thing, it just makes it hard to find anything to distinguish one from the other. So I'll go with level pitched.

I have no suggestions there, just pointing out that it's Candelario.

Ah, I see. While I agree the dropoff is considerable after the top 2, I don't think the problem is lack of ceiling. Guys like Petty, Sims, Grayson, Hundley, Bridge and maybe even Halliday are high upside guys, they just have all kinds of other question marks. I don't like any of those guys anywhere near as much as I like the 2nd and after picks from the last 3 or 4 drafts, aside from 2013. 2014 had Jimmy Garropolo and Derek Carr. 2012 had Brock Osweiler, Russell Wilson, and Nick Foles. 2011 had Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, and Ryan Mallett. I liked all of those guys coming out in terms of high-end projectability a lot more than any of this year's QBs outside of the top 2. Hundley is the closest, but I'm not sold on him entirely.

On paper, maybe, but this draft looks like one where five years from now, the most successful QB will be some 3rd or 4th rounder no one is talking about right now Based on? Just a hunch. I feel like Winston/Mariota will flame out while some lower round guy could step up So you think some guy you don't even know exists will be better, just because. Okay. I just don't see the dropoff from Winston to Mariota. I agree there is a dropoff in certainty after the two of them, but what is the real difference between Winston and Mariota? Both measured in at basically the same height/weight (6'3, 233 for Winston vs 6'3, 221 for Mariota) and both were highly successful college QBs. Winston worked in more of a pro-style system than Mariota and is a bit more polished, but all signs indicate that Mariota is smart and a very hard worker who will put in the effort to get acclimated. If we were talking about a guy with clear accuracy issues or questionable arm strength I could understand the perceived gap between the two, but Mariota has NFL skills. Should there be a gap between the two? Yes, but it shouldn't be very large. Winston has humongous off the field questions and Mariota has significant acclimation questions. To me, they're much closer than most experts seem to think. I meant after Mariotta and Winston, the pickings are pretty slim on high-ceiling talent at the position this year.

On paper, maybe, but this draft looks like one where five years from now, the most successful QB will be some 3rd or 4th rounder no one is talking about right now Based on?

Regarding the earlier discussion: I see Winston going very high, even with his warts, if for no other reason than there's a very steep dropoff after him at the position.

Exactly the number I got.

Some of those prospects I knew, but couldn't remember their names. they were in my head as "Korean shortstop," "often-injured high pick pitcher with diminished stuff," "Fireballer who didn't work out," "the big bonus 2nd round pitcher with the double B name," "That guy who played 2B and 3B that got traded for Nomar," "That guy who played 3B everybody said had a perfect swing and would be a contact monster even though it never ever resulted in anything in the minors," etc. And then I forgot the guys who have actually played on the Cubs in the last half decade.

Yeah, wasn't expecting to have to break out the Kevin Ories and Earl Cunninghams.

Angel Guzman, top prospect 20XX

He can get that way, but when he's playing well (2nd half of Pats game, 2nd half of Packers game, Raiders game) he goes through his progressions and often finds his 2nd and 3rd options. At times he can look like the best QB in the league, and at times he looks like it's the first time he's ever played quarterback. He's a great athlete (WR in college) and often uses his legs to keep plays alive. They like to force feed Wallace, and at times he has ball security issues. I'd be surprised if Wallace doesn't have a fumble or 2 in this game. Jarvis Landry (2nd round pick out of LSU) is coming off a great game, but he's not anything too special. Lamar Miller can make plays and the combination of him and Moreno will be tough to stop, especially if Moreno is healthy. The Dolphins have been running a lot of read option lately and the Bears haven't been the best at stopping it, so look for the Dolphins to use it early and often. The Dolphins have a terrific defense. Olivier Vernon and Cameron Wake are probably the best pair of DEs in the league. They can really pressure the QB. Brent Grimes is a terrific CB (#2 per PFF last year). Cortland Finnegan is pretty terrible these days and whoever he is guarding should have a monster day (probably Jeffrey). I think the Bears are going to have a tough time running the ball and will have some issues protecting Jay, but overall they should be able to move the ball via the pass and put up points. As both a Bears and Dolphins fan, this game will be a bummer either way. Both teams really need a win. I'd go Bears 27-24. First, for those saying this is a test of whether or not the Bears "play down to the comp," I find that sentiment odd. It's not like the Bears have shown themselves to be anything special yet, just like the Dolphins. They're basically the same team at this point, quality-wise. The Bears have one more win in one more game played, and both teams have a slight negative point differential. I don't agree that Finnegan is "terrible these days" at all. He was pretty bad in St. Louis, but he's been good as a Dolphin outside of the last game. However, he and Grimes give up a LOT of size to Marshall and Jeffery, which will make those matchups very tough. They'll also be challenged to cover against Forte and Bennett with a linebacking corps that not entirely healthy. Misi is nursing an ankle injury that took him out on Green Bay's last drive last weekend, directly contributing to the game-winning touchdown pass from Rodgers to Quarless. If they have to put Wheeler in coverage, that's really bad news. Jelani Jenkins has been excellent in coverage, but he can only cover one or the other. The Bears' question mark at RT is a disadvantage, considering the RT has to block Cameron wake. The Dolphins DL is very strong, and one of the keys to the Dolphins competing will be pressuring Cutler to make things easier on the coverage. On the flip side, the Dolphins need to establish the run game early to get shorter conversions and open up play action, and they need to run more plays with layered routes to get Tannehill rolling early. The Bears will want to lock down the running game and force Tannehill and the passing game to beat them. Ultimately, I think this game comes down to line play on both sides. If the Bears can stop the Dolphin running game and protect Cutler consistently, the game is clearly in their favor. If the Dolphins can run the ball effectively and get pressure on Cutler, they probably win with a similar margin. If the results are in between, well, the results are in between. I think the Bears are the better team. And are playing at home. The Bears won or nearly won several games last year (and in the opener this year) that they couldn't stop teams from running the ball. Even if the Dolphins do run the ball and get some pressure on Cutler, Jay has actually been really good under pressure this year. I think that even if the Dolphins run the ball well, sack Cutler 3-4 times, they still won't win if the Bears don't turn it over. You can argue that pressure will force turnovers, but it hasn't so far. Cutler has the 3rd highest completion percentage when under pressure with 5 TDs and 1 INT. Home field is an advantage, sure, but how much has that helped this year? The Bears may be a better team, but they sure haven't shown it. They were 8-8 last season, just like the Dolphins. And the difference between them in 2014 is 3 points in point differential and 1 more game played and won. Both teams have been the definition of average. Pressure isn't all about sacks, either. I'd actually argue that sacks are the third most important effect of pressure, behind producing rushed/errant passes and reducing the necessary coverage time for the secondary/linebackers, and ahead of turnovers. That's the reason pressure is so important for the Dolphins--it makes the fight against Chicago's big, talented receivers a lot easier to compete in. They don't have to stop them every time; they just need to minimize extra yards and gradually force them into unideal conditions. It's the same way they played the Packers, and they could have (arguably should have) won that one. I think the Bears have an advantage, but it's not a huge one.

He can get that way, but when he's playing well (2nd half of Pats game, 2nd half of Packers game, Raiders game) he goes through his progressions and often finds his 2nd and 3rd options. At times he can look like the best QB in the league, and at times he looks like it's the first time he's ever played quarterback. He's a great athlete (WR in college) and often uses his legs to keep plays alive. They like to force feed Wallace, and at times he has ball security issues. I'd be surprised if Wallace doesn't have a fumble or 2 in this game. Jarvis Landry (2nd round pick out of LSU) is coming off a great game, but he's not anything too special. Lamar Miller can make plays and the combination of him and Moreno will be tough to stop, especially if Moreno is healthy. The Dolphins have been running a lot of read option lately and the Bears haven't been the best at stopping it, so look for the Dolphins to use it early and often. The Dolphins have a terrific defense. Olivier Vernon and Cameron Wake are probably the best pair of DEs in the league. They can really pressure the QB. Brent Grimes is a terrific CB (#2 per PFF last year). Cortland Finnegan is pretty terrible these days and whoever he is guarding should have a monster day (probably Jeffrey). I think the Bears are going to have a tough time running the ball and will have some issues protecting Jay, but overall they should be able to move the ball via the pass and put up points. As both a Bears and Dolphins fan, this game will be a bummer either way. Both teams really need a win. I'd go Bears 27-24. First, for those saying this is a test of whether or not the Bears "play down to the comp," I find that sentiment odd. It's not like the Bears have shown themselves to be anything special yet, just like the Dolphins. They're basically the same team at this point, quality-wise. The Bears have one more win in one more game played, and both teams have a slight negative point differential. I don't agree that Finnegan is "terrible these days" at all. He was pretty bad in St. Louis, but he's been good as a Dolphin outside of the last game. However, he and Grimes give up a LOT of size to Marshall and Jeffery, which will make those matchups very tough. They'll also be challenged to cover against Forte and Bennett with a linebacking corps that not entirely healthy. Misi is nursing an ankle injury that took him out on Green Bay's last drive last weekend, directly contributing to the game-winning touchdown pass from Rodgers to Quarless. If they have to put Wheeler in coverage, that's really bad news. Jelani Jenkins has been excellent in coverage, but he can only cover one or the other. The Bears' question mark at RT is a disadvantage, considering the RT has to block Cameron wake. The Dolphins DL is very strong, and one of the keys to the Dolphins competing will be pressuring Cutler to make things easier on the coverage. On the flip side, the Dolphins need to establish the run game early to get shorter conversions and open up play action, and they need to run more plays with layered routes to get Tannehill rolling early. The Bears will want to lock down the running game and force Tannehill and the passing game to beat them. Ultimately, I think this game comes down to line play on both sides. If the Bears can stop the Dolphin running game and protect Cutler consistently, the game is clearly in their favor. If the Dolphins can run the ball effectively and get pressure on Cutler, they probably win with a similar margin. If the results are in between, well, the results are in between.

he started worse than this in iowa A lot worse.