NSBB Prospect Rankings

[Guest]

After tonight, there's 19 games left. Brett has 94 at bats and Vitters has less than that. I think it's extremely likely both will still be considered prospects by BA and the other publications that rank prospects. Can't see Brett getting 56 at bats from here on out if he's batting low in the order, taking a few walks, and probabky getting a few more days off as well.

I thought it was 130 PA.

[Guest]

After tonight, there's 19 games left. Brett has 94 at bats and Vitters has less than that. I think it's extremely likely both will still be considered prospects by BA and the other publications that rank prospects. Can't see Brett getting 56 at bats from here on out if he's batting low in the order, taking a few walks, and probabky getting a few more days off as well.

I thought it was 130 PA.

 

It's 130 AB (can't believe you thought MLB would be progressive enough to use PA rather than AB).

 

I'm sure he'll get 36 AB the rest of the way.

[davell]

Oh well, not sure why I had 150 in my head. Yeah, that'll be tough for Brett to miss. Vitters will retain rookie status though.

[rawaction]

My top 30 prospects.

 

1 Javier Baez, SS High A

2 Jorge Soler, OF Low A

3 Albert Almora, OF Short Season

4 Arodys Vizcaino, SP INJURED

5 Pierce Johnson, SP Short Season

6 Christian Villanueva, 3B High A

7 Matt Szczur, OF AA

8 Jeimer Candelario, 3B Short Season

9 Dan Vogelbach, 1B Short Season

10 Ronald Torreyes, 2B AA

11 Arismendy Alcantara,SS High A

12 Junior Lake, 3B AA

13 Gioskar Amaya, 2B Short Season

14 Paul Blackburn, SP Rookie

15 Ben Wells, SP Low A

16 Marco Hernandez, SS Short Season

17 Duane Underwood , SP Rookie

18 Dillon Maples, SP Rookie

19 Stephen Bruno, IF Short Season

20 Starling Peralta, SP Low A

21 Jose Rosario, SP Short Season

22 Robert Whitenack, SP High A

23 Jae Hoon Ha, OF AA

24 Tayler Scott, SP Short Season

25 Logan Watkins, 2B AA

26 Trey McNutt, SP/RP AA

27 Tony Zych, RP AA

28 Trey Martin, OF Low A

29 Ryan McNeil, SP Rookie

30 Shawon Dunston Jr, OF Rookie

[JeffH]

Good list, but where's Paniagua?

[El Duderino]

Yeah, guys like Callis and Law seem like they would easily have Paniagua in the top 30, maybe even top 15. But the list is really good, nothing I really question.

[rawaction]

Good list, but where's Paniagua?

 

I really don't know enough about him to slot him. From what I have heard about him, I'd guess I'd slot him around 12 (in front of Junior Lake), but some have suggested that he could be in my top 5 (2nd best pitching prospect).

[Guest]

The only major disagreement I have is Stephen Bruno in the top 20. I don't have him in my top 30.

 

Also, I expect Josh Vitters and Alberto Cabrera will still be prospect eligible this offseason.

[davell]

I honestly think it's 50/50 even now, as to whether Brett gets 130 at bats. 17 games left, he's at 99. Seems easy, but he could get sat 4-5 times against lefties before the season ends, especially if he continues to struggle. Couple that with batting low in the order and drawing lots of walks......Even if he stays healthy, I could see him wind up right at or around that number.

[davell]

No clue why I care about this, but Brett needs 23 at bats in his last 12 games, to lose rookie status. 3 lefties to go evidently.

[toonsterwu]

My top 30 prospects.

 

1 Javier Baez, SS High A

2 Jorge Soler, OF Low A

3 Albert Almora, OF Short Season

4 Arodys Vizcaino, SP INJURED

5 Pierce Johnson, SP Short Season

6 Christian Villanueva, 3B High A

7 Matt Szczur, OF AA

8 Jeimer Candelario, 3B Short Season

9 Dan Vogelbach, 1B Short Season

10 Ronald Torreyes, 2B AA

11 Arismendy Alcantara,SS High A

12 Junior Lake, 3B AA

13 Gioskar Amaya, 2B Short Season

14 Paul Blackburn, SP Rookie

15 Ben Wells, SP Low A

16 Marco Hernandez, SS Short Season

17 Duane Underwood , SP Rookie

18 Dillon Maples, SP Rookie

19 Stephen Bruno, IF Short Season

20 Starling Peralta, SP Low A

21 Jose Rosario, SP Short Season

22 Robert Whitenack, SP High A

23 Jae Hoon Ha, OF AA

24 Tayler Scott, SP Short Season

25 Logan Watkins, 2B AA

26 Trey McNutt, SP/RP AA

27 Tony Zych, RP AA

28 Trey Martin, OF Low A

29 Ryan McNeil, SP Rookie

30 Shawon Dunston Jr, OF Rookie

 

At first glance, I like the list.

 

Some non-Paniagua questions (as I'm not sure what I'd do with him either) -

 

1. Minor curiosity on the placement of some of the prep arms, like Maples, Underwood, and Blackburn. Curious what your thinking is with Blackburn leading the pack there, and at a relatively high spot.

 

2. Bruno does seem a bit high there, and I like him a lot, but he's the type of guy that's going to have to, for me, prove it at each level (again ... I like him a lot). Although, I do think he'd make my top 30 relatively safely (say, 22-27 range).

 

3. On the flip side, Ha seems a touch low. I've never been the biggest Ha fan, but hot ending, solid tools, and by all accounts, is looking like a potential premiere defensive center fielder.

[rawaction]

My top 30 prospects.

 

1 Javier Baez, SS High A

2 Jorge Soler, OF Low A

3 Albert Almora, OF Short Season

4 Arodys Vizcaino, SP INJURED

5 Pierce Johnson, SP Short Season

6 Christian Villanueva, 3B High A

7 Matt Szczur, OF AA

8 Jeimer Candelario, 3B Short Season

9 Dan Vogelbach, 1B Short Season

10 Ronald Torreyes, 2B AA

11 Arismendy Alcantara,SS High A

12 Junior Lake, 3B AA

13 Gioskar Amaya, 2B Short Season

14 Paul Blackburn, SP Rookie

15 Ben Wells, SP Low A

16 Marco Hernandez, SS Short Season

17 Duane Underwood , SP Rookie

18 Dillon Maples, SP Rookie

19 Stephen Bruno, IF Short Season

20 Starling Peralta, SP Low A

21 Jose Rosario, SP Short Season

22 Robert Whitenack, SP High A

23 Jae Hoon Ha, OF AA

24 Tayler Scott, SP Short Season

25 Logan Watkins, 2B AA

26 Trey McNutt, SP/RP AA

27 Tony Zych, RP AA

28 Trey Martin, OF Low A

29 Ryan McNeil, SP Rookie

30 Shawon Dunston Jr, OF Rookie

 

At first glance, I like the list.

 

Some non-Paniagua questions (as I'm not sure what I'd do with him either) -

 

1. Minor curiosity on the placement of some of the prep arms, like Maples, Underwood, and Blackburn. Curious what your thinking is with Blackburn leading the pack there, and at a relatively high spot.

 

2. Bruno does seem a bit high there, and I like him a lot, but he's the type of guy that's going to have to, for me, prove it at each level (again ... I like him a lot). Although, I do think he'd make my top 30 relatively safely (say, 22-27 range).

 

3. On the flip side, Ha seems a touch low. I've never been the biggest Ha fan, but hot ending, solid tools, and by all accounts, is looking like a potential premiere defensive center fielder.

 

I like to balance pure talent, actual results, ceiling, floor, and likelihood of reaching ceiling. To me, Bruno has about as high of a floor as anyone below AA. And I think his likelihood of being at least a Mark DeRosa type player is pretty good. And that's not a horrible ceiling to have.

 

As for the pitchers, Blackburn and Underwood are younger than Maples by 2 full years, so I went with them higher. And frankly, I only picked Blackburn over Underwood because he was drafted first. The results were about the same this year. Size and age are about the same.

 

Funny, that I think I'm one of the biggest Ha fans here. But I don't know that I could put him much higher. Maybe switch him and Bruno, but I think that's elevating Ha 2-3 spots too many and doing the opposite to Bruno 2-3 spots.

[davell]

The Fangraphs report made an Aaron Hill reference for Bruno. Does he have 15-20 homer potential? If so, he probably makes a solid jump next year up our rankings.

[toonsterwu]

The Fangraphs report made an Aaron Hill reference for Bruno. Does he have 15-20 homer potential? If so, he probably makes a solid jump next year up our rankings.

 

Very borderline, IMO. I tend to think that a ceiling for his HR power potential, if he develops, is probably in that 15ish, so 20 seems a bit high, but yes, I'm believer that there's some pop in the bat, provided that he can find a way to balance average and power. I tend to view Bruno, if he develops, as a guy that could maybe give you 10-12 HR's, a fair amount of doubles, and a solid/high average.

 

I like Bruno a fair amount, but he'll need to show that power to really move up in the rankings, because the type of player he is, for me, he really needs to prove it each year at each level. I think he will, at least, in the low minors, but if I'm going to be critical of other guys for having some limitations, I ought to be fair to guys I like.

 

What I'd really like to see is Bruno be given 1 main position defensively. He can still occasionally sub at other spots, but having one main position would be nice. Ideally, it's at 2nd, because that's where he would profile best, although 3rd is possible. Hence why I am hoping he shows well in the Spring and forces his way to Daytona, where he could potentially start at 2nd or 3rd. Amaya's ceiling is good enough that he should be given every chance to man 2nd on a regular basis in Peoria, and same goes for Candelario. DeVoss and other possible 2nd/3rd guys, guys that were in Peoria, are nice, but not as intriguing as Bruno, IMO, as of now.

 

Anyhow, a long way to go.

[Little Slide Rooter]

No love for the great Tim Saunders?

 

As of right now, he seems more like a utility player.

 

.

 

Why does Stephen Bruno seem to get more love than Tim Saunders? Saunders is just 6 months older then Bruno, and hit .381/.431/.536 throughout 3 levels. They each play all around the IF sans 1B, so the utility arguement could be made for both. Either one could potentially fall anywhere between David Eckstein and Adam Kennedy, which would be pretty good for a mostly under the radar prospect.

[El Duderino]

No love for the great Tim Saunders?

 

As of right now, he seems more like a utility player.

 

.

 

Why does Stephen Bruno seem to get more love than Tim Saunders?

 

Stephen Bruno played division-I baseball, not division-III.

[toonsterwu]

SCS - First, my general take, but I have some biases, is that Bruno is viewed as a better defender player ... at almost any spot.

 

2nd ... I've also argued that, much as I like Bruno, he will be a "prove it at each level" type of guy. Maybe other people have been hyping up Bruno here more (although I don't recall it), but I certainly don't think calling a guy as a "prove it at each level" guy is exactly a ton more praise than calling Saunders a guy that looks like a utility option.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Lazy afternoon random list time.

 

I'm considering Castillo graduated because he looks like the likely starting catcher for next season, but Vitters and Jackson are headed to AAA.

 

 

1. Baez (started to separate himself from the other two)

2. Almora

3. Soler

4. Vizcaino

5. Panigua (heard some very good things about him since he came to the statse. So few pitchers in the system have his kind of upside).

----- (Very large dropoff here, we're down into the B prospects)

6. Vogelbach (maybe too high, but power is so hard to find, and the kid just mashed)

7. Villanueva (thought about putting him lower, but being headed to AA next season makes him advanced by our system's standards)

8. Candelario

9. Johnson (My favorite of the various recently drafted pitchers)

10. Marco Hernandez (I don't know as much about the various low minors infield guys, but he seems to be the one people are highest on right now)

11. Torreyes (still love him)

12. Watkins (getting overhyped right now, but there's something there)

13. Vitters (ick. The breakthrough season came crashing down in the majors, but walk rate still improved).

14. Underwood

15. Lake (Okay slash line at AA, but expecting advanced pitching at AAA to give him the Brett Jackson treatment next year. Can we convert him to a pitcher already?)

16. Alcantara

18. Jackson (fine, I have to put him somewhere, I guess)

19. Maples

20. Amaya

21. Szczur (still so much I just don't like here)

22. Wells (waiting to see what happens with his arm)

23. Cabrera (fascinated by the difference between his minor league numbers and his MLB performance this year)

24. Carreno (A starting pitcher who throws with the first digit as a 9 and whose K and BB rates don't make my eyes role. That's very rare in this system)

25. Zych (I love potentially fast moving relievers, though I'm probably overrating him).

 

Guys who feel like they should be top-25 prospects but couldn't find room for them:

Rosario, Peralta, Bruno, Blackburn (could shoot up if he displays velocity next season after some time off), McNutt, Martin, Scott (just for being on a BA top-20 list), Ha

 

Probably some big oversights here, I'm not quite the prospect guru some are. But I just can't get over how deep the system is. This started as a top-15, but I started listing guys who felt like they could be top-15 candidates and I got past 30.

[davell]

Solid list. I'll disagree on Brett's placement, but a good overall look. At this time next year, I could see us having 3 top 25 guys in Baez, Soler, and Almora. Possibly a 4th, with our 1st rounder in the draft. I could also see Vogelbach, Paniagua, Johnson, and Candelario becoming top 100 types. Not all, but my bet would be 2 anyway. Then, adding prospects thru trades could give us another guy as well. Plus, the huge IFA budget. And if we have a 70 win season or less in 2013, it'd give us that much more. I thinkk we'll end 2013 as a top 5 system easily. And we'll have tons of prospects to trade from at that point, while not gutting the system in the process.

[toonsterwu]

Total side note, but you could add one more to get to 25 ... you only have 24 guys (you skipped 17 in your numbering).

[toonsterwu]

Kyle's list motivated me to give my first run-through in months. Just top 20 for now. I did my usual pool of names and worked through it, but I feel like I’m forgetting someone. I wrote/typed notes along the way of why I had guys in certain places, but posting that would make this into another of my really long posts (not that it already isn't). But, while acknowledging that it is a run-through, I do have arguments for why I have guys in certain places and I’ll put a couple comments in there for now.

 

I tossed grades on there, though I don't really love it, as a way to show the gap in my mind in thinking about guys. I still stick with what I said earlier in the year – I’m not sure that 2nd tier of the system, for me, is all that strong. That would roughly be 4-7 for me, the B type prospects (if I wanted to make larger tiers, I would go 1-3, 4-7, 8-15). The depth of the system, IMO, is from 11 to maybe 30, where there’s a boatload of guys. I mean, heck, you could work into a top 50 of the Cubs system and expect to see guys on the back end that you could easily buy as getting major league time at some point in there career (for example, Marcus Hatley). The exciting thing is that it doesn’t take much imagination to believe that we could have 5 or more guys from 11-30 really emerge in the next year and bulk up that 2nd tier.

 

With the really top talent, it was easy to decide things, but I cut it off at 20 for now, because after that, we get into the murky area of intriguing young guys (mostly arms, and a lot of them, that’s for sure, wanted to take a moment to note that AMG has sort of been lost in the discussion, and I thought he was a fascinating arm that almost no one mention. Ryan McNeil probably deserves a touch more hype … not sure there’s a gap between Blackburn and McNeil in my mind right now.) and low ceiling productive higher level guys (the most noticeable ones to me would be Nick Struck and Logan Watkins). I still tend to give some general upper level benefit of the doubt if the guys are really far away (Arizona), but that’s just how I am. I’m also wary of slotting pen arms high (for example, just because Kyle noted him, I’m not sure where Tony Zych fits in for me. Playing it out after 20, I’m not sure he’s in my top 25, and I’m not certain he’s in my top 30).

 

I could go any number of ways from 16-20. I’ve always had some bias for Ben Wells as a personal favorite, so I can understand people sliding him down some more on health concerns. I can understand the same feelings for Whitenack, but I heard positive enough things on fastball action/velocity this summer that I’ll give him a tiny upper level/hope 2nd year back from TJ is better bump. Vitters/Ha were tough decisions. I have never been big on either one of them in recent years, but man … Vitters is still young and showed some improvement, while Ha plays a tough position well (or better) and had a nice 2nd half. I can see the arguments for the Rosario’s of the world (admittedly, the injury concerns hurt him in this run-through in my head), and I know that I love the ceiling of Underwood (I am intrigued with a lot of our young arms but he, along with Maples, feels like some of the few guys with truly high level potential). I really wanted to squeeze in personal favorite Stephen Bruno, but as I’ve noted before, he, like another Cubs MI for me, is a “prove it at each level” guy, even if that’s a bit unfair to either guy.

 

I’ll probably give this another run through and push it to 30 or more.

________

 

The Top Tier

 

1. Javier Baez, A-.

2. Albert Almora, B+.

3. Jorge Soler, B+.

__________

 

Intriguing but with questions

 

4. Arodys Vizcaino, B.

5. Brett Jackson, B/B-.

 

I can understand why people would put him lower. Much as I like him, this was a horrific season. Leaving aside the major league trial, there were still extended stretches in AAA where he was striking out close to 50% of the time. That’s just bad. Still … he has power, plays a solid CF. That should be enough for him to get looks in the majors. He doesn’t need to hit for a high average to have a shot, but can he hit for a passable average? I don’t know. I think he can improve, but then again, I didn't expect such a horrific year. The reason I keep him here, though, is that a lot of the top guys after this are in the low levels and a few years away, so for me, I think there’s enough risk in how far away they are that I'll keep Brett here in this run-through. But that's me.

 

6. Juan Carlos Paniagua, B/B-.

 

___________

 

A tiny separation, but separation did exist in my mind.

 

7. Pierce Johnson, B-/B. (I really may ponder sliding this up with the above mini-group)

 

Polished college arm with a plus fastball, good breaking ball, and decent changeup, IIRC. That said … how high is this ceiling? That’s what pushes him slightly down for me. I can see a case of lumping him in with the above guys, but I really want to get a better picture of how good the quality of that breaking ball is, and we really won’t know until we see him against tougher competition. Going to be curious what the Cubs do with him. I could see them starting him in Daytona if he has a lights out spring, but that would make for a jammed rotation situation.

 

8. Arismendy Alcantara, B-.

 

I’ve said before that, on gut feeling, I’m still very wary of Alcantara, and I stand firm on that point. But leave aside gut feeling for a moment. Here’s a toolsy shortstop, who will only be 21 next season (22 after the season). He has to become more consistent defensively, but the tools are there to be a plus shortstop. He doesn’t strike out THAT much, but he certainly could work on improving his approach. He showed some pop this year and had a breakthrough offensive season before getting hurt. It’s hard not to be intrigued with that package. He’s in a tough spot … he has to keep pushing forward with Baez nipping on his heels. He should start in Tennessee.

 

9. Dan Vogelbach, B-. Alcantara's tools, position, and level was enough to push him ahead of a pure first baseman.

10. Christian Villanueva, B-.

__________

 

Another gap

 

11. Matt Szczur, C+.

 

So, this is the way I look at Szczur. First, at a certain point, I agree that being young to baseball doesn’t matter, as your age is ... your age. At this juncture, it’s safe to say that it really shouldn’t be a mini-plus for him anymore, which I think it was for some the last couple years. I also understand and have noted before that Keith Law’s concerns were always fair – Szczur has swing work to do if he wants to maximize his power potential. I think it improved this year, but there’s work. That said, what is he? A plus defensive centerfield option, solid on the basepaths. He’s improved his approach at the plate (I was very troubled with Szczur's approach last offseason as the trends in Peoria, month to month, were headed in the wrong direction). Can he make more contact against tougher pitching? I tend to think he’ll improve on that front next year, but that’s a gut feeling, and if one feels he was exposed this year, okay, slide him down. But ... if he can, then his ability to hit some gap shots, plus an improved approach, could give him a chance to be a top of the order bat. It’s enough for me to stick with him here.

 

12. Marco Hernandez, C+.

13. Jeimer Candelario, C+. Grade feels low ... but I really couldn't push him higher for now. I'll ponder.

14. Ronald Torreyes, C+.

15. Gioskar Amaya, C+.

 

I almost think he’s a bit … under-hyped. I know there were moments where I sounded negative on him, but I really like Amaya. I feel like his power ceiling moved up a tiny notch this year, and he sounds like he handled 2nd relatively well. Here’s a potential top of the lineup type hitter that has some pop in his bat, and if he plays a decent 2nd, that’s a very intriguing and good asset.

 

___________

 

Gap (If I pondered this section some more, I feel like I might eventually slide some arms past Ha/Whitenack, but I just couldn't do it for now.

 

16. Ben Wells, C+.

17. Josh Vitters, C+. This almost feels a tad unfair to a guy who is still so young.

18. Jae-Hoon Ha, C+.

19. Robert Whitenack, C+.

20. Starling Peralta, C+. Giving him a tiny edge on Underwood here, as his ceiling is awfully good (potentially 2 plus pitches if he becomes more consistent) and he’s at a higher level, but Underwood was the main guy competing in my mind.

[jumbo]

Kyle's list motivated me to give my first run-through in months. Just top 20 for now. I did my usual pool of names and worked through it, but I feel like I’m forgetting someone. I wrote/typed notes along the way of why I had guys in certain places, but posting that would make this into another of my really long posts (not that it already isn't). But, while acknowledging that it is a run-through, I do have arguments for why I have guys in certain places and I’ll put a couple comments in there for now.

Just want to say I love reading your posts on rankings. Even though this wasn't a polished/final list to you it's articulate and well done.

Thanks

[toonsterwu]

Thanks, although reading through that, there were a lot of writing errors in there.

 

I feel like I keep forgetting someone, but I'm not sure who (and maybe the person wouldn't fit in a top 20 or 30, but I just keep looking at the pool of names and I feel like someone's missing). It'd either be someone that was injured this year or an international signing from the last couple years (but I checked the international signings and couldn't come up with anyone).

[davell]

Carreno, possibly? Not sure where I'd throw him yet, but probably in the 20-25 area.

[davell]

Maples or Lake could be guys you forgot, although I know you're not high on Maples, so I doubt you forgot him.