Dusty strikes again!!

[jersey cubs fan]

Yeah, it's all arbitrary, injuries just happen it has nothing to do with pitching more than others especially at a young age.

 

Dusty can destroy pitchers in their early 20's he's done it before and he'll do it again.

 

Yes, the pitch count is arbitrary. You're out of your mind if you think that pitch counts is the primary reason why a pitcher gets hurt compared to the other factors I had mentioned. It's stupid to try and pick out one phrase (which is correct) and ignore everything else I had mentioned.

 

I didn't even read your post, I was just responding to IMB's post.

 

Sorry, just because 100 is an arbitrary number doesn't mean high pitch counts aren't dangerous. And just because we don't have all the evidence about what causes injuries doesn't mean you throw caution to the wind and treat pitchers, especially young ones, the way Dusty does. Pitching injures arms. It's only reasonable to be cautious. That does not mean to never let a young guy throw 110 pitches. It does mean not just throwing him out there repeatedly. If he goes higher one start, ease up later. Not like a guy to throw 110+ in several consecutive starts isn't even close to saying he better never throw more than 90.

[imb]

I just hate this concept of Step 1.) google up the game log. Step 2.) 110 pitches! Step 3.) OH [expletive]!

 

There's so much more to it than a cursory, 15-second look at 30 starts in a single season.

[MembersOnlyJacket]

Sandy Koufax went down in his prime at 30 having pitched nearly 700 innings the two years before his arm fell off. Then, you have a guy of the same era like Juan Marichal who threw nearly 300 innings a year for 15 years. Drysdale threw 300 innings a year and his arm fell off at 30. Jim Bunning pitched till he was 40. I mean, we could go on and on over cases of guys who could throw and throw and throw...and those who couldn't. That is just one era. The 1960's.

 

Needless to say, a lot of advancements have been made both medically and statistically which demonstrate the benefit of controlling a pitchers workload, but there will still be pitchers who are highly predisposed to injuries because of what they throw and how they throw it. It is only prudent, as a manager, to look at as much data as possible and try to relate it to how a pitcher throws. Limiting and controlling a pitchers workload is the best control a manager has of extending the lifetime of his pitchers. It is a process and the more repeatable you make it, the better chance that the process will be optimized; in non-human terms.

 

Dusty's problem is that he has failed time and again to be proactive. Throwing a guy out there for 120-130 pitches in September, in the heat, and in a 7-0 game is reckless. Throwing a guy out there after a 2 hour rain delay is reckless. Throwing a relief pitcher 4-5 days in a row, routinely, is reckless. These are all areas where the manager has failed to do his homework and went with his gut.

 

It is not an exact science, nor will it ever be because of the human element. All you can do as a manager is to try and be as proactive as possible and hope that increases the lifetime of a pitcher.

[Guest]

Regarding the whole "in the old days, pitchers used to throw 130 pitches all the time" thing: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias

[wade]

Volquez probably only threw 60-70 pitches a game in the minors and 70-80 a game with the Rangers and then all of a sudden he has to increase that total by 30-40 a start, his arm isn't used to it.

 

Edinson threw way more than 70-80 pitches per game in 2007, in his 6 starts with the Rangers.

 

I think pitch counts are a necessary tool in watching a pitcher, along with the many other factors U.K. talked about.

 

The way I understand it, a guy is throwing sinkers and changeups and around 13 pitches every inning, his 117 pitches (all other factors being equal) is going to be quite different than a guy throwing 4 seam fastballs and hard sliders that's hit 117 pitches by the fifth inning.

[NCCubFan]

Update: Volquez did undergo TJS and will miss most of 2010.

[IUBrian]

Can anyone with a better sense of long-term memory help me out with this?

 

Which pitchers under Dusty's regimes (SF, Cubs, Reds) have had TJS or equivalent major surgeries? I remember pulling my hair out over pitcher abuse during his tenure, but am curious of names.

 

Thanks in advance!

 

BP

[USSoccer]

Can anyone with a better sense of long-term memory help me out with this?

 

Which pitchers under Dusty's regimes (SF, Cubs, Reds) have had TJS or equivalent major surgeries? I remember pulling my hair out over pitcher abuse during his tenure, but am curious of names.

 

Thanks in advance!

 

BP

 

Billy Swift

Chad Fox

[chasinf5s]

79

114

118

100

116

131

129

109

124

131

133

133

116

119

 

these were Prior's pitch counts from Late July through the post season in 2003.

 

its not so much the count is that bad in my opinion but when a guy is not used to that load, its only asking for trouble. as the numbers i posted show, adding 15 pitches to a guy who is used to 116 and had never pitched more than 160 innings in a year is a recipe for disaster.

[XZero771679666304]

79

114

118

100

116

131

129

109

124

131

133

133

116

119

 

these were Prior's pitch counts from Late July through the post season in 2003.

 

its not so much the count is that bad in my opinion but when a guy is not used to that load, its only asking for trouble. as the numbers i posted show, adding 15 pitches to a guy who is used to 116 and had never pitched more than 160 innings in a year is a recipe for disaster.

 

This brings to mind an image of Dusty with a whip or crop.

 

 

Now we're slavin'!

[17 Seconds]

79

114

118

100

116

131

129

109

124

131

133

133

116

119

 

these were Prior's pitch counts from Late July through the post season in 2003.

 

its not so much the count is that bad in my opinion but when a guy is not used to that load, its only asking for trouble. as the numbers i posted show, adding 15 pitches to a guy who is used to 116 and had never pitched more than 160 innings in a year is a recipe for disaster.

 

the bolded stretch is especially absurd

[Banedon]

I loved Dusty coming out to the mound to talk to Harang last night when he had thrown something like 116 pitches, and Dusty left him in there....the next pitch Lee doubles in a run.

[wade]

I loved Dusty coming out to the mound to talk to Harang last night when he had thrown something like 116 pitches, and Dusty left him in there....the next pitch Lee doubles in a run.

 

Turned out to be the wrong decision, but again, 116 pitches is not THAT bad.

[Monco]

The 100 pitch number is a arbitrary number when relating it to an injury. It has been shown that after 100 pitches , a pitcher is less effective. It can be attributed to fatigue, but also can be attributed to facing a batter for the third or fourth time and pinch hitters. Its amazing that a pitcher has an injury,right away they blame the high pitch counts. How about relief pitchers? They get hurt too! Pitchers get hurt,they did years ago, and they still do. Todays pitchers throw less than years ago and still get hurt. If a pitcher is used to throwing 110-120 a game how is that abuse? Thats what he's used to throwing.200 innings have become the new 300 innings. Conditioning(normal workload), pitch types,mechanics, and the individual are better arguments as to why a pitcher got hurt. But, its easier to explain something when a number is put on it.

 

If its Dustys fault for Wood and Prior, but what about Zambrano? Hes always thrown alot. Three days after the Cubs drafted Wood, he threw 140 pitches in a high school game. Did that cause him to break down a few days later?

[jersey cubs fan]

The 100 pitch number is a arbitrary number when relating it to an injury. It has been shown that after 100 pitches , a pitcher is less effective. It can be attributed to fatigue, but also can be attributed to facing a batter for the third or fourth time and pinch hitters. Its amazing that a pitcher has an injury,right away they blame the high pitch counts. How about relief pitchers? They get hurt too! Pitchers get hurt,they did years ago, and they still do. Todays pitchers throw less than years ago and still get hurt. If a pitcher is used to throwing 110-120 a game how is that abuse? Thats what he's used to throwing.200 innings have become the new 300 innings. Conditioning(normal workload), pitch types,mechanics, and the individual are better arguments as to why a pitcher got hurt. But, its easier to explain something when a number is put on it.

 

If its Dustys fault for Wood and Prior, but what about Zambrano? Hes always thrown alot. Three days after the Cubs drafted Wood, he threw 140 pitches in a high school game. Did that cause him to break down a few days later?

 

If you don't see how recklessly Baker handled Prior, then you just don't want to see it.

[Monco]

When did the abuse set in, over the winter. Prior looked pretty good going into the 8th of game 6.

Priors achilles injury had nothing to do with his future?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

When did the abuse set in, over the winter. Prior looked pretty good going into the 8th of game 6.

Priors achilles injury had nothing to do with his future?

 

Funny, in the eighth inning, it looked like he ran out of gas. If only he'd had a little more rested arm...

 

The simple fact is that high pitch counts at a young age are highly positively correlated with arm injuries. Trying to deny that is to, well, be in denial.

[Monco]

Prior threw around 95 pitches after the 7th. There's no way he could have pulled him.He ran out of gas in the 8th and was pulled after 119 pitches.There were other factors other than the number of pitches that effected Prior that inning that led to the fatigue.

 

Blaming a high pitch count for a young pitchers injury is debatable. How about the pitchers that don't get hurt,did they all have low pitch counts? Younger pitchers are more likely to get injured anyway. If a guys been pitching for 7 years without problems, the chances are pretty good that he will stay that way. Minor league pitching injuries are very common.Look at the first round picks and see how many are injured and never make the bigs.I doubt they were abused in A ball. Maybe they had high pitch counts before they were drafted. If thats the reason for their injury,why blame the current manager instead of the old one?

 

Does anyone ever analyze why the crappy pitcher with the low pitch count got hurt?

 

Pitch counts and innings pitched have been reduced through the years and pitchers are still getting hurt. I don't see how its helped. In 20 years will we shut them down after 75, 50, 40 ?

[SouthSideRyan]

Nobody's complaining about bringing Prior back in the 8th. They're complaining about the ridiculous move of having him throw 300 pitches in game 2 up by 8.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Prior threw around 95 pitches after the 7th. There's no way he could have pulled him.He ran out of gas in the 8th and was pulled after 119 pitches.There were other factors other than the number of pitches that effected Prior that inning that led to the fatigue.

 

Other factors such as throwing way, way too many pitches down the stretch, including in blowout wins. Such as throwing 119 pitches in game 2 with a 10-run lead.

 

Blaming a high pitch count for a young pitchers injury is debatable.

 

Anything is debatable. In this case, the people on one side of the debate are very, very wrong.

 

How about the pitchers that don't get hurt,did they all have low pitch counts?

 

That's a very dumb argument.

This is not a difficult concept. High pitch counts in younger pitchers are *correlated* with injuries. You increase the risk. Of course that doesn't mean that all of them will get hurt. It just means more will than would have otherwise.

 

Younger pitchers are more likely to get injured anyway

 

True, but irrelevant.

 

If a guys been pitching for 7 years without problems, the chances are pretty good that he will stay that way.

 

True. Once a guy is past the early 20s, his arm is no longer developing, and there's less risk involved in stretching it. That's why I don't blame Baker for Wood's injuries, even though Wood was pushed just as hard.

 

Of course, people used to say Jon Lieber was a horse and could throw all day without getting hurt. Oops.

 

Minor league pitching injuries are very common.Look at the first round picks and see how many are injured and never make the bigs.I doubt they were abused in A ball. Maybe they had high pitch counts before they were drafted. If thats the reason for their injury,why blame the current manager instead of the old one?

 

Also a valid point. Another reason why I don't blame the Cubs for what happened with Kerry Wood. He was heavily, heavily abused in high school, before they ever got him. But they are absolutely culpable for Prior.

 

Does anyone ever analyze why the crappy pitcher with the low pitch count got hurt?

 

Pitch counts and innings pitched have been reduced through the years and pitchers are still getting hurt. I don't see how its helped. In 20 years will we shut them down after 75, 50, 40 ?

 

Pitch counts haven't really been reduced over the years. Innings have gone down because it takes more pitches to get through innings these days, because batters walk and strike out more often. Slippery slope arguments are a logical fallacy.

[J.R.]

How many more cities must Dusty ravage before his remaining supporters WAKE THE [expletive] UP?

[mul21]

How many more cities must Dusty ravage before his remaining supporters WAKE THE [expletive] UP?

 

Hopefully just one. Maybe LaRussa quits and the Cards hire him to destroy the franchise?

[Outshined_One]

Robb Nen in 2002 was Dusty's crowning achievement, imo. With Prior, you can argue that his career actually came to a screeching halt thanks to his collision with the midget 2B and taking a screaming liner off his pitching arm, rather than high pitch counts. With Wood, you can argue the abuse he suffered through HS was what hurt his career the most.

 

But Nen? It was so abundantly clear the guy was injured. He had nothing left in the tank, but Dusty kept trotting him out there night after night, even in the playoffs to the point where Nen was throwing batting practice in the World Series. Nen's admitted that he basically knew he was jeopardizing his career pitching in his condition. Yet, Dusty didn't know, didn't care, or looked the other way.

[illiniguy]

Robb Nen in 2002 was Dusty's crowning achievement, imo. With Prior, you can argue that his career actually came to a screeching halt thanks to his collision with the midget 2B and taking a screaming liner off his pitching arm, rather than high pitch counts. With Wood, you can argue the abuse he suffered through HS was what hurt his career the most.

 

But Nen? It was so abundantly clear the guy was injured. He had nothing left in the tank, but Dusty kept trotting him out there night after night, even in the playoffs to the point where Nen was throwing batting practice in the World Series. Nen's admitted that he basically knew he was jeopardizing his career pitching in his condition. Yet, Dusty didn't know, didn't care, or looked the other way.

Which is why the manager has to be the sane one. No way can a guy in Nen's spot say, "sorry skip, I can't go today." Could you imagine if he did that in the World Series? He would be hammered in the media and press.

[chasinf5s]

Robb Nen in 2002 was Dusty's crowning achievement, imo. With Prior, you can argue that his career actually came to a screeching halt thanks to his collision with the midget 2B and taking a screaming liner off his pitching arm, rather than high pitch counts. With Wood, you can argue the abuse he suffered through HS was what hurt his career the most.

 

But Nen? It was so abundantly clear the guy was injured. He had nothing left in the tank, but Dusty kept trotting him out there night after night, even in the playoffs to the point where Nen was throwing batting practice in the World Series. Nen's admitted that he basically knew he was jeopardizing his career pitching in his condition. Yet, Dusty didn't know, didn't care, or looked the other way.

 

possibly but Prior was utterly dominating after the base running collision, i think he went 9-1 with like a 1.50 era

 

in 82 innings/11 games

67 hits allowed

14 earned runs allowed

16 walks compared to 95 ks