Cub prospects in the news

[TruffleShuffle]

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=17600597

 

pretty good pop... didn't look like a home run off the bat IMO

[Scotti]

I'm still not huge enough on Lee to think he's a top 20 overall prospect, let alone top 10. At what point do we start acknowledging that, after April, he's been a fairly mediocre offensive player (roughly, .293/.350ish/.388)...

 

Any guy who hits .315 (great) is going to hit .290 (good but not great) during a spell or two. This isn't a big deal. Where he ends up on the year is. Thus far he's doing very well given his age/experience, skill set, etc. Lee hit .330/.399/.420/.820 as an 18-year old in Boise during his first year. He's right around those numbers now. There's no reason to think that what he's doing isn't real.

 

...while still posting fairly high BABIP numbers (.350ish or so)?

 

Speedy left-handed hitters have high BABIP's. The five keys for having high BABIP's are 1) don't hit lots of HR 2) do hit lots of line drives 3) be very fast 4) bat left-handed 5) bunt for base hits. He has the fivefecta. Here are some guys on the all-time top 10 BABIP list: Ty Cobb, Rod Carew, Ichiro, Shoeless Joe Jackson, Tris Speaker... All five fit the same bill of goods.

 

More importantly, at what point do we start noting that, month to month, his offensive performance has steadily declined?

 

When you start the year hitting .451 you are going to see a decline--even if that decline is .307 and .312 in the next two months respectively. We can only wish that Vitters had that kind of decline to worry about. In reality the "decline" you refer to is a .269 mark last month. If .269 is his low water mark then you don't have to worry about him.

 

His defense still has a lot of cleaning up work to do,

 

What 20-year old SS doesn't have "cleaning up" to do? Seriously. The guy is .961 this year--he's made strides every year. .961 is more than respectable for a 20-year old SS with tools out the wazoo.

 

...and for all his plus speed (and I haven't heard anyone call it plus-plus since his days in Boise)...

 

Just last year there was a former pro-scout that followed him for several games and did a write up on him (can't miss it--it's the third item to show up when you do a Google search of Hak-Ju Lee). His assessment? Plus, plus speed:

 

"Here's where Lee is going to make an impact on a team and where the Reyes comparisons begin. Lee is not Jose Reyes all-around. He doesn't have that type of pop in his bat. He does, however, have comparable speed and causes the same type of mayhem on the basepaths.

 

Lee has 7 or perhaps even 8 speed on the 2-8 scouting scale and he runs the bases exceptionally well for a player his age. He gets good jumps and showed very good instincts going from first to third."

 

...and his SB rate is fairly mediocre this year for a guy with plus speed (67.5% of the time).

 

Basing a guy's speed on either his overall SB or SB% doesn't give you a true picture (at any level). I think Szczur has plus speed but his ratio in college wasn't so hot. Looks really good in the pros though. Does this mean he got faster? I don't think so. Shawon Dunston was very fast. But after stealing 58 in his second pro year he only stole 20 (and was caught 11 times) in his third year. Does this mean that he got slower? No, despite his excellent speed, Shawon Dunston just wasn't a great base-stealer (his mlb avg was 20-8 until he hurt his back).

 

Look, I've never been the biggest Lee fan, but I will acknowledge that as a pure shortstop with loads of potential, he's got a chance to be a MLB player, and I think BA's midseason ranking (off the top, 23rd) was probably fair (and I imagine it might slip a tiny bit in their end of the season ranking). I'm just not seeing the production to justify a top 10 status. That isn't a knock on his talent. Martin Perez was knocked down a peg last year for his struggles, and everyone that saw him wasn't that concerned. The production simply hasn't been enough for me to think he's a top 10 type guy.

 

Lee has more than a chance to be a MLB, he has a chance to be a star. The guys rated top ten, top twenty should be guys who can become stars. I mentioned Furcal as a good comp for his tool set (Lee is much bigger and bats left-handed but both have similar tools). Furcal hit .322/.392/.389/.781 as a 21-year old in A/A+ with a fielding % of .932 (Furcal only hit .293/.343/.375/.718 at A+). For that he was ranked #8 overall by BA. Right now Lee is 20 (all year) at A+ and hitting .315/.383/.431/.815 with a fielding percentage of .961. While Furcal had more SB he also played his levels at two years older than Lee.

 

The majority of top ranked prospects don't pan out the way folks expect but I see no reason to shy away from giving a SS with Lee's skill set and production a top ranking.

[toonsterwu]

toonsterwu wrote:

More importantly, at what point do we start noting that, month to month, his offensive performance has steadily declined?

 

When you start the year hitting .451 you are going to see a decline--even if that decline is .307 and .312 in the next two months respectively. We can only wish that Vitters had that kind of decline to worry about. In reality the "decline" you refer to is a .269 mark last month. If .269 is his low water mark then you don't have to worry about him.

 

The offensive decline that I am referencing is his declining OBP and SLG numbers through each month, not his batting average.

 

I hadn't read Piliere's scouting report on Lee before. That's honestly the first time since his Boise days that I recall people using plus-plus on Lee's speed. Even when he was in Peoria, some folks I talked to who covered the league said it was more plus than plus-plus.

 

And

 

Edit: Nvm. Had this whole thing written, but you believe what you believe, and based off what I've been told, I believe what I believe and don't believe that he is a top 10 overall prospect

[TruffleShuffle]

yeah top 10 seems a little crazy to me. i feel like i could pick 10 names off the top of my head that i definitely like better than lee without having to give it much thought:

 

harper

trout

shelby miller

julio teheran

matt moore

j. profar

m. machado

d. jennings

j. taillon

d. mesoraco

 

i'd put montero and lawrie ahead of him too, though there are some "what position do they play?" concerns with those guys. i like taijuan walker and arodys vizcaino more as well.

[Guest]

Brett Jackson is 4th in this week's BA Prospect Hot Sheet. Apparently he somehow is now a Tigers prospect:

 

No. 4BRETT JACKSON, CF

TIGERS

Team: Triple-A Iowa (Pacific Coast)

Age: 23

Why He's Here: .462/.576/.962 (12-for-26), 4 HR, 1 2B, 6 RBIs, 9 R, 7 BB, 6 SO, 0-for-1 SB

The Scoop: Jackson was sidelined by a broken finger in May with Double-A Tennessee. It took a little time, but he has gotten back on track and hit his stride after moving up to Triple-A Iowa in mid-July. The Cubs' 2009 first-round pick owns a .293/.400/.573 line in 75 Triple-A at-bats after hitting .256/.373/.443 in the Southern League. One thing that never suffered was Jackson's eye at the plate, and he has drawn 59 walks in 88 games between the two levels. Jackson led off two games with home runs this week, and he had four multi-hit games.

 

DJ LeMahieu on the Not-So-Hot Sheet:

 

• D.J. Lemahieu, 3b/2b, Cubs. Lemahieu struggled during a short callup to the majors, batting .216/.216/.243 in 37 at-bats as an injury fill-in for Darwin Barney. He had been doing well since going down to Triple-A Iowa at the end of June, but the 23-year-old was perfectly imperfect this week, posting a .000/.000/.000 line after going 0-for-19 with four strikeouts. Just for good measure, he did reach base on a fielder's choice in last Saturday's game but was promptly thrown out trying to steal second.

[jersey cubs fan]

Brett Jackson is 4th in this week's BA Prospect Hot Sheet:

 

o. 4BRETT JACKSON, CF

TIGERS

Team: Triple-A Iowa (Pacific Coast)

Age: 23

 

What in the world?

[apete6]

Brett Jackson is 4th in this week's BA Prospect Hot Sheet. Apparently he somehow is now a Tigers prospect:

 

DJ LeMahieu on the Not-So-Hot Sheet:

 

• D.J. Lemahieu, 3b/2b, Cubs. Lemahieu struggled during a short callup to the majors, batting .216/.216/.243 in 37 at-bats as an injury fill-in for Darwin Barney. He had been doing well since going down to Triple-A Iowa at the end of June, but the 23-year-old was perfectly imperfect this week, posting a .000/.000/.000 line after going 0-for-19 with four strikeouts. Just for good measure, he did reach base on a fielder's choice in last Saturday's game but was promptly thrown out trying to steal second.

 

If his dog died and he broke up with his girlfriend, he'd have a nice country song for last week. That's brutal.

[Guest]

Yeah, I didn't even notice that till I posted it. Way to go, BA.

 

ETA: Re: Jackson being a Tiger.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Brett Jackson is 4th in this week's BA Prospect Hot Sheet:

 

o. 4BRETT JACKSON, CF

TIGERS

Team: Triple-A Iowa (Pacific Coast)

Age: 23

 

What in the world?

 

Traded for Brandon Inge. Where have you been?

[onion999]

toonsterwu: In regards to Lee I think it all comes down to how you value players. People are seeing things differently. Ozzie Smith only had 6 out of 19 seasons with an ops above 700. But in his time, pre steroids when 30 homers a year was a lot, this was all good as long as you made it with your glove which Smith did in spades. The best SS from my generation was ARod because he could hit 40 homeruns as a SS. We now know he was juicing for at least some of his career and while his glove was never great, it was good enough in the steroid era when balls were more likely to leave the yard than hit to short.

 

I think the era we will settle in is somewhere in between. Having a good SS will definitely be a greater priority. And if your SS has a great glove, can steal bases, and OPS near 800 you are set. This is hard to predict because power has really dropped recently but no one knows how much further things will go.

 

I for one am glad that we at least have 3 good gloves in CF to develop in Jackson, Ha, and Sczeer.

[Lefty]

CJ

 

Besides being a cool guy, what's with your infatuatuation with CJ Wilson?

[SouthSideRyan]

CJ

 

Besides being a cool guy, what's with your infatuatuation with CJ Wilson?

 

I didn't even know he was a cool guy.

 

Not a lot of miles on his arm, and has been an elite starter the last 2 years. Keeps the ball in the park in Arlington, so no reason he should be affected by Wrigley dimensions. Shouldn't cost more than the Dempster contract.

[Little Slide Rooter]

CJ

 

Besides being a cool guy, what's with your infatuatuation with CJ Wilson?

 

I'll go out on a limb and assume it has something to do with the fact that we could really use another front end starter and he's by far the best guy on the market.

[scarey]

Shouldn't cost more than the Dempster contract.

 

This is the part I'm not so sure on.

[Cubswin11]

Shouldn't cost more than the Dempster contract.

 

This is the part I'm not so sure on.

Exactly, depends what teams get in on the bidding. If the Yankees feel they really need another 1/2 type they could really drive up his price if they get in on the bidding.

[TruffleShuffle]

Brett Jackson, OF, Cubs (Triple-A Iowa)

With two home runs on Sunday, Jackson has hit six in his last ten to raise his Triple-A slash line to .291/.392/.616 in 24 games. That's been enough to create a lot of excitement with Cubs fans, so I'm here to temper that excitement (hey, it's my job). Jackson is among the streakiest prospects around, just as capable of hitting six home runs in ten games as he is of hitting .208 in May and June, as he did this year. Much of that is due to the amount of swing-and-miss in his game as he has struck out 30 times in 86 at-bats for Iowa. With above-average power, speed, and arm strength, Jackson has 20/20 potential as the Cubs’ center fielder of the future, but it's going to come with a low average and plenty of whiffs, leaving him more as a good prospect, as opposed to the savior for all that is ill on the north side of Chicago.

[JimSorgi]

Who said Jackson would be the savior? He has a chance to be really good, but I don't think that many people are expecting way too much.

 

Besides, everyone knows Castro is the savior.

[mul21]

At least he's not allergic to walks like it seems most of our high upside guys seem to be.

 

And if he hits .270-.280, he'll be plenty productive, especially if his arm and all around defense is as good as it seems to be.

Edited August 9, 2011 by mul21

[Cubs Fan Dan]

Jackson's ability to draw walks makes him a very valuable player even if he hits .260.... I still think he is capable of hitting higher than that but the reason to be excited is the fact that he is showing plus power, plus speed, solid defense and the ability to get on base enough to hit in the top half of the order.

 

I am very excited to see Castro, Jackson in the top part of the order for years to come.

[TruffleShuffle]

i haven't seen him play, but my guess would be that he strikes out more because of his patience (getting deep into the count most plate appearances) rather than chasing bad balls or swinging through pitches. when he does put the ball in play, he seems to make a lot of hard contact.

[rawaction]

i haven't seen him play, but my guess would be that he strikes out more because of his patience (getting deep into the count most plate appearances) rather than chasing bad balls or swinging through pitches. when he does put the ball in play, he seems to make a lot of hard contact.

 

I don't think the problem is pitch recognition at all. I haven't seen much of him other than highlight videos, but I don't imagine he's chasing a lot of bad pitches, with his strike zone discipline. I definitely think his swing is a little long. I just recently watched some video of him in college and some as a professional, and he really chopped at the ball a lot more in college trying to be a true leadoff hitter. As he's hit for more power, his swing has gotten longer and he has a few more holes in his swing. He seems like kind of a tweener right now. Not quite a stud power hitter (30 HR + power) and definitely not a slap hitter. Maybe he needs to cut down his swing with 2-strikes, but I'd imagine he's been told to stay aggressive.

[CubColtPacer]

i haven't seen him play, but my guess would be that he strikes out more because of his patience (getting deep into the count most plate appearances) rather than chasing bad balls or swinging through pitches. when he does put the ball in play, he seems to make a lot of hard contact.

 

My guess is that it has to be some of both to get a 31.6% strikeout rate this season. If that's mostly from going deep into the count then he's being too patient. My guess is he has pretty good strike zone recognition but swings through a decent amount of strikes.

[Have a seat, Neifi]

B-Jax is John Sickels's 'Prospect of the Day' on Minorleagueball.com. Here's a snippet from the write-up, including John's general prediction:

Jackson has above-average bat speed to go with his above-average running speed. His upper cut swing should deliver 20-homer power as he matures. He works counts and will take walks, but he's vulnerable to strikeouts. He's not likely to develop into a .300 hitter, but if he can hit .250-.270 in the majors as he's done in the minors, he should draw enough walks to keep his OBP at more-than-acceptable levels.

 

I expect Jackson will need some adjustment time when he reaches the majors, but his broad base of skills is very attractive. If he remains this hot we could see him in September, and we'll certainly see him sometime in 2012.

Link to full article:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/8/9/2352271/prospect-of-the-day-brett-jackson-of-chicago-cubs

 

I'd be perfectly happy with something akin to a rich man's Drew Stubbs.

[videographer]

Now that Jackson is getting close to the majors, I will bring up a comparison that long time Cub fans may understand. Jackson may turn out to be another Rick Monday. Left handed center fielder with power, speed, high strike out and walk totals in the lead-off spot. Even the batting average is close to projections.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=Rick-Monday

 

Jackson's minor stats mirror Monday's major stats. Eerily similar in many ways as a player. I liked Monday for a while, than tired of his limitations as an all or nothing hitter. Nice guy, good fielder, but now all but forgotten as a Cubs lead-off man.

 

So the question is - are Cub fans ready for another Rick Monday in centerfield?

[RynoRules]

If Jackson winds up playing CF, has a career OBP around .360, and a career OPS slightly over .800 I will be thrilled.