Cub prospects in the news

[TruffleShuffle]

kevin goldstein did a chat last week and answered a few cub-related questions:

 

Q: Trey McNutt - what have we learned in 2011?

A: Has scuffled with mechanics, throws everything with 100% effort, stuff is still good, but there are a lot of concerns.

 

Q: profar or starlin castro long term? assume castro stays at SS (and that he can keep his mind on the game for more than an at-bat at a time)

A: I don't like your assumption, as I think Castro is not going to last at shortstop for very long. Hell, he shouldn't be there now (Barney is the better defender there). Castro has more offensive upside than Profar, but Profar will stay at the position at least.

 

Q: I've noticed Zack DeVoss in the updates a few times recently. Will his lack of power kill the on-base percentage as he climbs or does he develop enough to be a useful player and take advantage of the plate discipline?

A: That's the million dollar question, and the reason he's more intriguing than a big prospect at this time.

 

Q: Prospecting for next year..could you name a couple of players that haven't been called up yet this year that you think will have a starting major league position next year...thank you

A: Brett Jackson?

[Ryno12]

A: I don't like your assumption, as I think Castro is not going to last at shortstop for very long. Hell, he shouldn't be there now (Barney is the better defender there). Castro has more offensive upside than Profar, but Profar will stay at the position at least.

 

Goldstein has never been too high on Castro, but at least he's accepted the fact that his bat is for real, finally. I still don't think Starlin needs to move off short any time in the near future.

[javy knows my name]

A: I don't like your assumption, as I think Castro is not going to last at shortstop for very long. Hell, he shouldn't be there now (Barney is the better defender there). Castro has more offensive upside than Profar, but Profar will stay at the position at least.

 

Yes, Barney is the better defender there. But he shouldn't be in a major league starting lineup, so this is meaningless.

[Guest]

Barney is 10th in 2B WAR. He doesn't have much upside beyond his performance this year, but he's not playing so far over his head that he's unacceptable as a starter at 2B or SS, especially at his price.

[Little Slide Rooter]

A: I don't like your assumption, as I think Castro is not going to last at shortstop for very long. Hell, he shouldn't be there now (Barney is the better defender there). Castro has more offensive upside than Profar, but Profar will stay at the position at least.

 

Yes, Barney is the better defender there. But he shouldn't be in a major league starting lineup, so this is meaningless.

 

I think that in a good enough lineup, Barney could be a solid 8 hitter, however, I think that both Flaherty and LeMahieu should be better offensive options in the long run relagating Barney to the bench. My guess is that Barney will have a nice 10-12 year big league career between 6-7 teams.

[toonsterwu]

Castro may have to move off short (still think he'll be fine through his cost-controlled years), but I don't love this idea that Barney is a significantly better defensive option out there. He has far less range and arm strength, and I wonder, over the course of a year at short, if he would be far more exposed than we're letting on. I like Barney a lot, but he's a guy that makes all the plays he can get to, but there's some limitations on how many plays he will get to.

[javy knows my name]

Castro may have to move off short (still think he'll be fine through his cost-controlled years), but I don't love this idea that Barney is a significantly better defensive option out there. He has far less range and arm strength, and I wonder, over the course of a year at short, if he would be far more exposed than we're letting on. I like Barney a lot, but he's a guy that makes all the plays he can get to, but there's some limitations on how many plays he will get to.

 

I would not have guessed he had worse range than Castro. On what are you basing this?

[toonsterwu]

Castro has better lateral movement than Barney. Barney, as much as I've defended him while coming up the system, isn't an elite athlete. Castro's a poor runner, but has solid natural speed (he always had poor C-1st times, which was the reason why some folks said he was slow ... he might end up slow as he physically matures (TBD), but he has good raw quickness/speed which, IIRC, a scout had said was average to a tick above average on the scouting scale, not elite speed, but not lumbering either.) Defensively, the lateral movement is more important, imo, particularly at short (rather than raw speed), and Castro moves fine left to right. Castro's biggest problem is ... well ... put it this way, I think if he hunkered down and played short with his full focus, he'd be at least an average shortstop, if not a tick above. Arm strength is a clear advantage for Castro.

 

Look, in time, Castro may grow out of the position (always reminded me, offensively and defensively, a bit of Robinson Cano coming up ... keep in mind the Cano coming up wasn't viewed as the power threat that he is now). I'm not debating that here. My point is this - sure, Barney's steadiness is a benefit and may get overall better defense, but how significant of a difference is this? I'm simply not sold that Barney is a much better defender than Castro over the long haul. Slightly better, perhaps, but I don't see the point of making the move for slightly better. I'd rather see them work with Castro to develop his tools. I believe he can be an average shortstop, and if he was an average shortstop, he'd be a solid top 5-7 shortstop in the bigs, IMO, as he progresses (I mean, statistically, the defensive UZR numbers are killing his fangraphs WAR).

[TruffleShuffle]

Yeah I don't agree that Castro has better range than Barney.

[Guest]

Kevin Goldstein had a blurb in Vine Line regarding Ackerman and Golden: http://vineline.mlblogs.com/tag/reggie-golden/

 

Hunter Ackerman, LHP

 

A 2010 fourth-round pick out of a North Carolina junior college, Ackerman doesn’t have the kind of velocity that lights up radar guns, but he gets as much movement on his 88-91 mph fastball as any pitcher in the system, and has been a groundball machine for the Cubs’ complex-league team in Arizona. He has a surprisingly advanced change-up, and could be in line for a full-season debut next year at Low-A Peoria if he can refine his breaking ball.

 

Reggie Golden, OF

 

A second-round pick last year, the Cubs knew that the 19-year-old Golden would be a project when they signed him, as he’s arguably the best athlete in the system but doesn’t have much baseball experience against top competition. After being held back in extended spring training this year to refine every aspect of his game, he’s been one of the most pleasant surprises at Short-Season Boise. His .253 batting average might not impress, but scouts see big progress in the translation of his tools into baseball skills.

[TruffleShuffle]

you'd think the fact that ackerman has been bad since signing would be relevant information.

[Guest]

you'd think the fact that ackerman has been bad since signing would be relevant information.

 

Did you miss his 2011?

 

3.68 ERA, 10.02 K/9, 3.00 GO-AO

[TruffleShuffle]

you'd think the fact that ackerman has been bad since signing would be relevant information.

 

Did you miss his 2011?

 

3.68 ERA, 10.02 K/9, 3.00 GO-AO

 

you left out the 1.52 whip and the RA near 6.

[WeGotWood98]

Agree or disagree:

 

Barney in today's run environment might be a viable starting SS somewhere, and therefore is trade bait this offseason. This is especially true when we have depth at 2B/utility guys I think.

[CubColtPacer]

Agree or disagree:

 

Barney in today's run environment might be a viable starting SS somewhere, and therefore is trade bait this offseason. This is especially true when we have depth at 2B/utility guys I think.

 

Agree that Barney could very well be a starting SS somewhere. I disagree that makes him viable trade bait. I just don't see a team trading for Barney to be a starting SS until they see him play SS at the major league level for awhile, and hopefully that isn't going to happen on the Cubs anytime soon.

[WeGotWood98]

Agree or disagree:

 

Barney in today's run environment might be a viable starting SS somewhere, and therefore is trade bait this offseason. This is especially true when we have depth at 2B/utility guys I think.

 

Agree that Barney could very well be a starting SS somewhere. I disagree that makes him viable trade bait. I just don't see a team trading for Barney to be a starting SS until they see him play SS at the major league level for awhile, and hopefully that isn't going to happen on the Cubs anytime soon.

 

I should have said that no team will actively search him out, but like many young Cubs he'd be appealing in a package....say for a OF bat or young pitcher.

[Rob]

Agree or disagree:

 

Barney in today's run environment might be a viable starting SS somewhere, and therefore is trade bait this offseason. This is especially true when we have depth at 2B/utility guys I think.

 

Agree that Barney could very well be a starting SS somewhere. I disagree that makes him viable trade bait. I just don't see a team trading for Barney to be a starting SS until they see him play SS at the major league level for awhile, and hopefully that isn't going to happen on the Cubs anytime soon.

 

I should have said that no team will actively search him out, but like many young Cubs he'd be appealing in a package....say for a OF bat or young pitcher.

 

He wouldn't have much more value than Blake DeWitt had when he was dealt to us.

 

Though I agree we should be willing to move him if somebody is willing to pay.

[Guest]

itto (PR): Starlin Castro or Javier Baez (if he reaches his potential)?

 

Jim Callis: Castro, because he's a shortstop and Baez will be a third baseman. Baez would have more power, but Castro will be a better all-around player. I'm not saying Castro will be THIS good, but he could become the next Derek Jeter.

 

Navin (Pasadena, CA): Would all four of Baez, Vogelbach, Dunston Jr and Maples slot into the Cubs top 10 prospects? Thank you!

 

Jim Callis: I do our Cubs Top 10, and haven't really thought about it. Baez will be near the top, along with Jackson, Szczur and McNutt (who gets a mulligan for 2011). Maples will make it, Vogelbach has a good chance and Dunston won't. We weren't nearly as high on Dunston as the Cubs were.

[onion999]

Not saying that Barney is an allstar, but to compare him to Blake Dewitt is ridiculous. Barney is a solid all around player who is not spectacular in a anyway, but there are lots of teams that field SS who have significant holes in their play. There would be lots of teams that would like Barney. They wouldn't give up a blue chipper but he would garner much more than Dewitt would.

 

Even if their bats were comparable, which I am not willing to say, you would expect a lot more from a 3B than a SS.

[CubColtPacer]

Not saying that Barney is an allstar, but to compare him to Blake Dewitt is ridiculous. Barney is a solid all around player who is not spectacular in a anyway, but there are lots of teams that field SS who have significant holes in their play. There would be lots of teams that would like Barney. They wouldn't give up a blue chipper but he would garner much more than Dewitt would.

 

Even if their bats were comparable, which I am not willing to say, you would expect a lot more from a 3B than a SS.

 

But their bats aren't comparable. DeWitt's bat is clearly better. They are the same age and DeWitt has a career OPS+ of 92 and wOBA of .313 (98 and .317 this year) while Barney has a career OPS+ of 82 and wOBA of .295 (86 and .300 this year). And DeWitt still has some possible projection in his bat while Barney has almost none. Barney does have the advantage of playing SS and being a much better defender so it just really depends on if a team values middle infield defense highly or not.

[Guest]

BA: http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2011/09/daily-dish-cesar-puello-nolan-arenado-continue-second-half-surges/#more-12880

 

Jay Jackson, rhp, Cubs: Jackson's season has been a disappointing one, with a 5.40 ERA through 25 starts for Triple-A Iowa. He showed a flash of hope yesterday, however, with 11 strikeouts, two walks (one intentional) and just one run allowed over six innings.

 

Matt Szczur, cf, Cubs: Szczur is one of the best athletes in the minors, but he's shown this year that he's more than just raw tools. He has faced an adjustment period since his promotion to high Class A Daytona, but he went 4-for-6 with a home run in a doubleheader yesterday, bringing him to .290/.332/.420 with 10 home runs and just 48 strikeouts in 108 games between Daytona and low Class A Peoria.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

But their bats aren't comparable. DeWitt's bat is clearly better. They are the same age and DeWitt has a career OPS+ of 92 and wOBA of .313 (98 and .317 this year) while Barney has a career OPS+ of 82 and wOBA of .295 (86 and .300 this year). And DeWitt still has some possible projection in his bat while Barney has almost none. Barney does have the advantage of playing SS and being a much better defender so it just really depends on if a team values middle infield defense highly or not.

 

I see him as a potential Pennigton/Everett type at SS. A below average bat with a starting level glove. I think teams nowadays could find plenty of value in that.

[toonsterwu]

I don't really buy DeWitt's bat getting that much better. For all the talk people had about how his bat would develop at some point, it's never happened. He's 26 now. While there's still time, I'm just not sure I buy it getting that much better. I think he's a serviceable utility guy, particularly if he learns to play some corner OF as he gets older (since he really isn't all that good at 2nd), whereas, on a 2nd tier club, you could probably be fine with Darwin Barney as a starting shortstop.

[Guest]

Postseason league all-star teams are being announced:

 

AZL - SS Gioskar Amaya

NWL - 1B Paul Hoilman and C Rafael Lopez

MWL - none

FSL - 1B Justin Bour, LF Evan Crawford and RHRP Frank Batista

SL - RHRP Rafael Dolis

PCL - 1B Bryan LaHair (also PCL MVP)

[jersey cubs fan]

I don't really buy DeWitt's bat getting that much better. For all the talk people had about how his bat would develop at some point, it's never happened. He's 26 now.

 

I don't really buy that DeWitt is only 26.