Cub prospects in the news

[Little Slide Rooter]

why stop at 5 years? the cubs MAY not ever contend for the rest of their existence.

 

They probably won't ever contend considering all those monster, bloated, never-ending contracts they have weighing them down.

 

At least the world is ending next December, so we only have 1 more full season to endure.

[CyHawk_Cub]

why stop at 5 years? the cubs MAY not ever contend for the rest of their existence.

 

They probably won't ever contend considering all those monster, bloated, never-ending contracts they have weighing them down.

 

At least the world is ending next December, so we only have 1 more full season to endure.

 

Then Ricketts should have no problem emptying out his bank account by singing Wilson along w/ Pujols AND Fielder. The latter two comprising the most expensive platoon ever. Might as well go out w/ a bang.

[Guest]

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/7/26/2293839/chicago-cubs-2011-pre-season-top-20-prospects-in-review

 

Sickels' reviews his preseason top 20 prospects.

[Lefty]

why stop at 5 years? the cubs MAY not ever contend for the rest of their existence.

 

They probably won't ever contend considering all those monster, bloated, never-ending contracts they have weighing them down.

 

At least the world is ending next December, so we only have 1 more full season to endure.

 

Then Ricketts should have no problem emptying out his bank account by singing Wilson along w/ Pujols AND Fielder. The latter two comprising the most expensive platoon ever. Might as well go out w/ a bang.

 

Who's Wilson?

[SouthSideRyan]

CJ

[Guancous]

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/7/26/2293839/chicago-cubs-2011-pre-season-top-20-prospects-in-review

 

Sickels' reviews his preseason top 20 prospects.

 

That's an ugly list. The good news is that there are enough new draftees and breakthrough seasons to offset the disappointments.

[toonsterwu]

The top 10 of the list has absolutely been decimated. Doesn't mean those guys aren't without hope, but I imagine 6 of those arms are probably outside of the top 20 for many of us (Carpenter, Jay Jackson, Simpson, Lopez, Cabrera, Reed). I thought Reed/Lopez were significantly over-ranked by Sickels last year, though. Understood the fascination people had with Lopez, never understood the high rankings considering how raw he was. Granted, for Sickels, 8-18 were probably close.

 

All three upper level arms could still roles in the bigs. Of the three, I'm most intrigued with Cabrera right now. Despite some concerns about loss of stuff, last couple times I've seen him, he's been in the 90's while flashing with the slider. Carpenter's control is such a mess this year, I don't know what the issue is, but if he tightens that up, he could still be a back of the pen type arm.

 

Between Cabrera and Jackson, Jackson might have the best chance to stick as a starter if he can find/improve his secondary stuff, but man ... haven't seen or heard much positive reports on the slider this year. Was at a game this year when someone remarked to me that they hadn't seen a good slider from Jay all game. Perhaps exaggerating a bit, but still.

[Guest]

Tex (Austin,Tx): Future 3rd baseman of the Cubs???? Josh Vitters, DJ LeMahieu, Ryan Flaherty or other?

 

Jim Callis: I still think Vitters is the best in-house option, but I keep waiting for this breakout year that's supposed to be coming. Their long-term third baseman may not be in the organization right now.

 

Cubs fan pulling my hair out (IL): What can we expect from the cubs over the next few days? It would apear to be the optimal time to stock the system and trade away Marshall, Baker, Johnson, Fukudome, Pena, and Ramirez, but it doesnt appear Hendry wants to admit his failure.

 

Jim Callis: I don't think Hendry is afraid to admit things haven't worked out. Ramirez doesn't want to waive his no-trade clause. Wood took a lot less money to come back to Chicago, so the Cubs won't betray him with a trade. That leaves them with a lot of expensive overachievers or role players to deal, and that's not going to bring back much. So don't expect any big-time prospects to come to the Cubs via trade.

 

Ray (Chicago): Has Ryan Flaherty's upside improved enough to be projected as a legit offensive third baseman? And including Flaherty, what is the best option at second base for the Cubs in 2012?

 

Jim Callis: If he can play there, which is still a question. He has played all over the place for the Cubs in the minors, in part because they have several infielders like. But he would have been better served not wasting time at second base or shortstop, where he's not going to play for any length of time in the big leagues, and spending a lot more time at third base. I don't think Darwin Barney will be a star, but he's their best option at second base for 2012.

 

Tim (Chicago): It seems that Brett Jackson has had an up and down season..any reason for concern?

 

Jim Callis: No. He had a minor injury that slowed him after a good start. He's still the same solid-across-the-board prospect.

[Tarver]

That Sickels article is depressing no matter how you spin it.

[toonsterwu]

I don't think anyone is suggesting that there hasn't been some minor disappointments in the system, but it needs to be noted that that list isn't really a reflection on the system right now. That said, some of the top 10 disappointments could be anticipated, so in that respect, I guess I'm less troubled reading that than maybe some other folks. I mean, Hayden's recovery was a known issue (although if there are arm problems, that's a different concern). Cabrera improved his control in AA before the odd call-up, and folks had been thinking that he was destined for a pen move eventually. Jay Jackson isn't that different from the arm he was last year, but the ERA looks ugly (components look somewhat similar to last year). Lopez was, IMO, over-hyped, and his struggles shouldn't be a surprise.

 

The one big disappointment has been Carpenter and his control.

[Guest]

Mike (Colorado): Thanks for the chat. After a horrific start in Daytona Michael Burgess seems to have righted the ship. Is he still a prospect with potential or a career Minor League player?

 

Jim Shonerd: We were just talking about him the other day, remembering his home run derby title at the '08 Sally League all-star game in Greensboro. There's a blast from the past. Burgess is only 22, so there's still some time, but it's looking like the latter. He's in essentially his third full season in high Class A.

 

Mike (Chicago): There hasn't been many cubs prospects on the list, is the the system that bad or are there prospects that I could excited about?

 

Jim Shonerd: Brett Jackson (No. 32) and Matt Szczur (No. 48) made our Midseason Top 50.

[Guest]

2008 37th rounder Erik Hamren was called up by the Padres. He's the 6th Cubs pick from 2008 to make it to the big leagues, joining Andrew Cashner, Chris Carpenter, Josh Harrison, Tony Campana and Casey Coleman.

[SouthSideRyan]

2008 37th rounder Erik Hamren was called up by the Padres. He's the 6th Cubs pick from 2008 to make it to the big leagues, joining Andrew Cashner, Chris Carpenter, Josh Harrison, Tony Campana and Casey Coleman.

 

I'm guessing somebody found a flaw. ERA around 5.70, K/BB around 1.2 with the Cubs peaking at A ball. Spends a year in the indy league, comes back with the Padres dominates high A, goes to AA, winds up with a K/BB of 5, and an ERA under 1.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Keith Law did his midseason top 50 and, somehow, Hak-Ju Lee is now a top 10 prospect in all of baseball. How can he possibly be ranked over Profar?

 

I'm still not convinced on Lee. He has made a major step forward, but thanks to his strikeout binge lately he has an .843 OPS on the season with a .393 BABIP. His speed should help give him an increased BABIP, but probably not that high. I'd put him as the best prospect from the Garza trade at this point and I think he will have a decent major league career especially if his defense becomes less erratic. I'm just don't know yet if he'll be a star.

 

I think he's an Erik Aybar type who has the chance to become an Orlando Cabrera type in the long term....Probably my favorite prospect from the Garza trade, but in the end right now and for the foreseeable future he's simply prospecting for an MLB career.

[Scotti]

Keith Law did his midseason top 50 and, somehow, Hak-Ju Lee is now a top 10 prospect in all of baseball. How can he possibly be ranked over Profar?

 

I'm still not convinced on Lee. He has made a major step forward, but thanks to his strikeout binge lately he has an .843 OPS on the season with a .393 BABIP. His speed should help give him an increased BABIP, but probably not that high. I'd put him as the best prospect from the Garza trade at this point and I think he will have a decent major league career especially if his defense becomes less erratic. I'm just don't know yet if he'll be a star.

 

I think he's an Erik Aybar type who has the chance to become an Orlando Cabrera type in the long term....Probably my favorite prospect from the Garza trade, but in the end right now and for the foreseeable future he's simply prospecting for an MLB career.

 

For me Lee is Rafael Furcal with better power at a similar age... Top runner, hits for average, plus range and a very strong arm. I'm not sure what isn't to like. His fielding percentage has improved to .961 this year. He walks. His K's are right around his career averages (and a byproduct of taking pitches). Maybe he's streaky but, hey, a young Furcal was streaky as well.

 

Given his tools (plus arm, plus glove, plus, plus speed and plus bat), position, production and age (he's 20 all year--he'll be 21 all next year at AA/AAA) I have no problem seeing him as a top ten guy. Given his size/age he might grow out of his plus, plus speed but it'll still be plus as with all the other tools (and potentially more power in that case). I just don't see a downside.

[Scotti]

I'm still not convinced on Lee. He has made a major step forward, but thanks to his strikeout binge lately he has an .843 OPS on the season with a .393 BABIP. His speed should help give him an increased BABIP, but probably not that high.

Bold Mine

 

Not only is Lee a plus, plus runner but he also bats left-handed, is a ground-ball hitter and drops down bunts for hits. All of those metrics add to his ability to hit for a high BABIP.

[toonsterwu]

I'm still not huge enough on Lee to think he's a top 20 overall prospect, let alone top 10. At what point do we start acknowledging that, after April, he's been a fairly mediocre offensive player (roughly, .293/.350ish/.388), while still posting fairly high BABIP numbers (.350ish or so)? More importantly, at what point do we start noting that, month to month, his offensive performance has steadily declined? His defense still has a lot of cleaning up work to do, and for all his plus speed (and I haven't heard anyone call it plus-plus since his days in Boise), and his SB rate is fairly mediocre this year for a guy with plus speed (67.5% of the time).

 

Look, I've never been the biggest Lee fan, but I will acknowledge that as a pure shortstop with loads of potential, he's got a chance to be a MLB player, and I think BA's midseason ranking (off the top, 23rd) was probably fair (and I imagine it might slip a tiny bit in their end of the season ranking). I'm just not seeing the production to justify a top 10 status. That isn't a knock on his talent. Martin Perez was knocked down a peg last year for his struggles, and everyone that saw him wasn't that concerned. The production simply hasn't been enough for me to think he's a top 10 type guy.

[onion999]

toonsterwu:

 

The way baseball prospects go I could easily see Lee flaming out and not amounting to anything. That is the nature of baseball prospects. But there are lots of scouts who have actually seen Lee play that value him highly. Here is someone who thinks he can be a star.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110726&content_id=22314100&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

 

We all use the box scores to paint a picture for us because very few of us can follow these minor leagers in person with any regularity. But it is a mistake to value these guys based solely on stats. There are AAAA guys who put up incredible numbers, but that doesn't make them good prospects. Lee has been impressive because he has shown great potential in a tough hitters league at a very young age.

 

Lee has been inconsistent on the bases, with the bat, and with the glove. But this is the norm for all young players, especially those mastering difficult defensive positions. What is more important is that Lee has shown that he CAN steal a lot of bases, play gold glove defense, and hit successfully as a leadoff man. How consistently he does these things will determine how good of a major leager he will be, but in High A ball it is more important to show that you can do big league things.

[Have a seat, Neifi]

On today's (8/3) ESPN's Baseball Today podcast, Keith Law was discussing Ben Revere of the Twins and then said (paraphrasing), "If you're a Cubs fan, Ben Revere is what you hope Matt Szczur turns out to be. Both are fast, play CF, and have slappy swings with no power." He went on to say that the "big difference" between them currently is that Revere is better CFer than Szczur. You can listen to the podcast for free, the blurb about Revere and Szczur is at around the 24-minute mark.

 

Again, just confirming Law's impression that Szczur has no power or patience whatsoever, minor league numbers to the contrary.

[sneakypower]

Szczur hit as many HR in fewer than 300 A-ball PA alone, as Revere hit in 1654 PA during his milb career

 

so, no

[SouthSideRyan]

We hope Matt Szczur turns into a worse version of Juan Pierre?

[Guest]

I have half a mind to think Law is just doing this to amuse us now.

[javy knows my name]

I'm really interested to learn what Szczur did to Keith Law

[JimSorgi]

I'm really interested to learn what Szczur did to Keith Law

Maybe Law is a baby hater.

[toonsterwu]

onion - I'm not debating Lee's talent. Much as I've never been high on him, at the end of my post, I said I thought BA's ranking at midseason, in the 20's, was fair. That's a very good and talented player, and I've seen him play enough, since his Boise days, to believe that he will make it up to the bigs.

 

I just don't see as a top 10 prospect UNLESS there is a higher level of production to match the tools. Certainly, it is debatable what that level of production needs to be, but for me, I don't think what he's done is enough to justify top 10 status, particularly not with what I'm hearing out of FSL folks.